Sonny and the Cy Young

[Matt Braun]

Minnesota's ace battles forces beyond just his competition in his bid for the AL Cy Young.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

If you pay attention to more than just the Twins side of the internet sphere, you’ve probably noticed the vast amount of cyber ink spilled over the NL Cy Young race and its many complexities. Six pitchers can claim a legitimate case for the award. No stat agrees with another. Senior circuit sportswriters may need to reach nirvana before they can understand who is truly worthy; lest they be punished by future dorks chastising them for their lack of vision. 

Less controversial and more ignored is the battle in the AL. It makes sense; the AL offerings are less numerous, less convoluted. The baseball sphere seems satisfied with handing Gerrit Cole the trophy and calling it a day, wiping their hands of strenuous thought as someone who surely deserves the honor ends up winning it. 

And, well, can anyone blame them? Cole leads the league in ERA—one of the stats so ingrained in baseball’s DNA that the sabermetric movement couldn’t even kill it—while tossing more frames than anyone else. He’s 3rd in WHIP, 1st in rWAR, and, hell, even top 10 in wins, if that still excites you these days. Nerds may punch small holes in his resumé, crying about his swinging strike rates and soliloquizing about his contact numbers before retreating into their cave-dwellings, but the numbers the majority of baseball appreciates are rock solid. It’s his award to lose. 

But, maybe that line of thinking isn’t fair. Cole leads in crucial stats, sure, but we have a cornucopia of numbers to describe what an effective pitcher looks like; surely, there is someone else deserving of being in the argument. 

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Sonny Gray is having a terrific season. The veteran leads the AL in FIP, largely due to his insane 0.4 HR/9, good for best in MLB. He’s a stone’s throw from Cole in ERA and bests all AL pitchers in fWAR. Yeah, the home runs may be fluky, but only the immensely pedantic among us care about that kind of stuff; being the best pitcher is about run prevention, and nearly no one has been better than Gray. 

The issue for Gray, though is that he must battle more than just Cole—he must face off against the forces he commands; of a player on an East Coast icon; of a superstar handsomely paid for his skills; of someone who really should have already won one of these awards, giving the voters an easy reason to write down his name before anyone else. ****, Cole’s catcher gets an article written about him. These are powerful forces and narratives that give tremendous wind to each number Cole claims. Being close or better will not be enough for Gray; he needs to be undeniably the better pitcher if he wants to claim the award, a deficit Cole will not face. 

Ultimately, Cole deserves the win. He owns a sizable lead over Gray in innings—and now matter the precision you slice Gray’s ERA with—Cole is simply better. He’s allowed runs at a better rate. That fWAR lead will ultimately mean nothing, and short of Cole full-on immolating in his next start, the Cy Young will be his. If it isn’t close, though—if the writers choose to be too passionate about handing it to him with votes dated in early September—it would be a disservice to Gray and his accomplishments. Maybe he’d be the winner if the roles were reversed and if humans don’t have their funny biases. But we do, and that’s not changing anytime soon.

For more Sonny Gray content from Twins Daily, click here. 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Matt, That was a good article for Sonny Gray winning the AL Cy Young award this year.  However, your points reminded me of some of my closing arguments to juries. I learned long ago that in closing arguments, if the facts are in my client's favor, argue the facts. If the law is in my client's favor argue the law. If neither the facts nor the law are in my client's favor, quote the Bible.  

[old nurse]

East coast bias, both ways. Some could think Gausman is doing better than Cole, Some could thing Valdez in Houston. Maybe Ohtani gets a vote. Gray’s best hope is to be in second place on all of the ballots that he is not on first

[Otaknam]

Silly discussion. Even in the age of stats, imagine a Cy Young winner having 9 wins. Gray has been pretty good and has some bulldog in him. But he’s no Cy Young candidate. I would like the team to give him a two year extension, however. 

[arby58]

The claims for Gray over Cole are pretty esoteric. I 'get' all the sabermetrics stuff and rely on it from time to time. That said, Cole leads Gray in every 'headline' stat - ERA (Cole 1st, Gray 2nd), wins (Cole 5th, Gray 33rd) innings pitched (Cole 1st, Gray 9th), strike outs (Cole 3rd, Gray 12th). It's not even a close call, and the 'east coast bias' is irrelevant. 

[JD-TWINS]

Don’t see any bias in choosing Cole for Cy Young. Gray is having a nice season - maybe his biggest attribute is he’s taken the ball every time when it’s his turn. His mental adjustments (strategy) between starts have been impressive in 2nd half.

For some reason (outside of lack of run support) the Team’s record is in the neighborhood of 14-18 when Gray starts. Maybe he’s up against best pitching competition? Not sure.

At any rate, I too would like the Twins try to sign Gray for 2 year maximum contract, somewhere around $47M total.

Maeda for 2 years and 1/2 that amount is another option to maintain depth!

Paddack - Ober - Varland - Lopez - Ryan looks great on paper but another guy would be smart for the organization.

Qualifying offer of $20M to Gray - getting the draft pick when he walks - signing Maeda probably is best strategy.

Hope Sonny gets some votes!!

[Whitey333]

Silly article really.  Gray has had a great season with the Twins and I hope against all odds he stays with the Twins after this season.  He's a very good but not elite pitcher.  As you kind of condemn the traditional stats as not projecting the desired results, you use the "new"  analytics to make above average players appear great.  

[Dman]

Sonny has had an exceptional year no doubt there, but I still think Cole looks better for the award.  Cole has done it against the premier competition of the East and on a relatively bad team at least by NY standards.  I think this is a done deal at this point.  

I will say I have been spoiled watching Sonny the last two years.  He is a true competitor and one the best pitchers in the game IMO.  I would love to have him back but with the season he is having and the league starved for elite pitchers it doesn't seem likely.  Here is to hoping the Twins make a playoff run this year and find a way to get to the World Series.

[saviking]

Everyone nowadays says it's not about the wins but I'll bet that if Sony had a 20-win season (which might not be out of the question if we gave him run support) he would have a strong chance of winning the award.

[Logi_Clevs]

Sonny not winning the award doesn't take away his great season. At the end of the day, Gray has had a great season, but Cole has just been better - it is what it is. I'm sure every pitcher in the Twins clubhouse would take a Commissioner's Trophy over a Cy Young anyway. For someone like Cole, it is likely his main focus now that the Yanks are out of the playoff chase. There is more to play for and more to earn for Gray and the Twins in October. 

[Twins GFP]

Too many politics and opinions weigh into these types of awards in all sports.  Players know this.

Gray has had an outstanding season.  Last year he complained bout not going deeper into games.  This year he is averaging 2/3 inning longer per start.  You also have to wonder how much the Vasquez signing has helped with him and the staff this year.

I would be very happy to see him back on a 2-3 year contract, but it doesn't feel very promising...

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Gray only has a shot if Cole implodes in one of the next couple starts and Gray gets to 10 wins.  Otherwise extreme longshot

 

[old nurse]

Wins seems to matter. Eflin is the only pitcher to win half of his starts and pitch the whole season.. He better be in the mix for the award. Better include Kyle  Gibson in the mix, he has 14 wins as well as Bassit and Luis Castillo. Wins do seem to muddy the pitcher. Err picture

[Bodie]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

Silly discussion. Even in the age of stats, imagine a Cy Young winner having 9 wins. Gray has been pretty good and has some bulldog in him. But he’s no Cy Young candidate. I would like the team to give him a two year extension, however. 

I will gently remind you of the then-unhittable Jacob deGrom a few years back when he was a Met.

10 wins versus 9 losses, with a 1.75 ERA.  The Mets were so bad that 2 consecutive starts (both CG shutouts - if I remember correctly) were won by deGrom at bat as he drove in all the runs scored in those two games!  At the season's end, people said he wasn't Cy Young material because he only had ten wins/wasn't much more than a .500 pitcher!

[MMMordabito]

Little early for the sore loser take.  

This basically sounds like "my favorite pitcher was better than yours in these couple of stats, so you only won because (Enter excuses)".

I hate the Yankees, but Cole totally deserves the Cy Young.

[lunemann]

I feel like the best old school argument against Cole for Cy Young is that he pitches for a loser in the Yankees. His heroics have been for nothing.

I don't actually buy that argument but I really enjoy typing that the Yankees are a trash team that has been playing for nothing for the past month.

[gunnarthor]

Gray shouldn't win it, Cole should. But Gray might come in second or third. He's had a really great season. Congrats to him. I'm sure we all would have been thrilled at the beginning of the year if we were told he'd be second in the Cy race.

[jmlease1]

Gray has been excellent this season, and done exactly what the Twins hoped he could do when they traded for him. It's been great. he's been healthy and effective, and he's having one of his best seasons of his career. (appropriate, in Sonny Gray's 3 best seasons, he's also been an all-star) His previous other excellent seasons he's finished in the top 10 of Cy Young voting, and deserve that accolade again this season.

he's not going to win this year. And that's ok: Cole has been better. Not massively, not absurdly...but he has. More innings, more Ks, fewer walks and basically the same ERA. I'd give it to Cole. Gray should be top 5 for sure.

[DJL44]

Regarding pitcher wins I saw this mentioned elsewhere in a discussion of Wainwright reaching 200 wins.

"no one in the top 100 wins active is under 27 years of age. Yikes. And it just takes 43 wins to make that list."

Forget winning 300 games, the 200 win club among pitchers 33 and under might be just Gerrit Cole.

Sonny Gray is 2nd in wins among pitchers 33 and under with 98 wins - good for 21st among active pitchers. Aaron Nola is #1 among pitchers 30 and under with 90 wins and Berrios is #2 with 83 wins. 

[Muppet]

A modern day Dave Stieb. The best pitcher nobody remembers. No matter how good you are, it's hard to win games when your team just can't win games.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Sabermetrics are great for looking at future performance and raw talent/ability. When discussing awards and past performances, it seems ludicrous to use expected stats and sabermetrics. Tell me how effective he was, not how effective he should have been. For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers.

Sonny would probably need to finish the year with a couple of scoreless starts and hope for a blowup from Cole towards the end of the year. The vote is probably going to be split a few ways, and I think Sonny could be in the top-3 on most ballots if he gets his ERA below 2.90.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

 For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers.

WPA should never be used in a serious discussion.

I like RA9 better than ERA. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Sabermetrics are great for looking at future performance and raw talent/ability. When discussing awards and past performances, it seems ludicrous to use expected stats and sabermetrics. Tell me how effective he was, not how effective he should have been. For that reason, I think the voters should lean heavily on IP, ERA, WAR, and WPA for pitchers.

Sonny would probably need to finish the year with a couple of scoreless starts and hope for a blowup from Cole towards the end of the year. The vote is probably going to be split a few ways, and I think Sonny could be in the top-3 on most ballots if he gets his ERA below 2.90.

ERA? The don't even call errors any more....no.

As for Gray, 100% they offer the QO, and I hope he takes it. They need him.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Too many politics and opinions weigh into these types of awards in all sports.  Players know this.

Gray has had an outstanding season.  Last year he complained bout not going deeper into games.  This year he is averaging 2/3 inning longer per start.  You also have to wonder how much the Vasquez signing has helped with him and the staff this year.

I would be very happy to see him back on a 2-3 year contract, but it doesn't feel very promising...

Great point about Vasquez helping Gray and the rest of the staff. I believe Vasquez has been a main contributor to the Twins pitchers successes this year.  He is a knowledgeable pitch caller, an encourager and a fighter. I'd share a foxhole with him any day or night. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Sonny Gray has made me forget Chase... what's his name? I feel my numerous prior complaints about that trade were just me being petty. 

[DJL44]

6 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

At any rate, I too would like the Twins try to sign Gray for 2 year maximum contract, somewhere around $47M total.

And I want a pony. Gray is looking for $100M. His agent is going to want to top what Yu Darvish got in 2021.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

Everyone nowadays says it's not about the wins but I'll bet that if Sony had a 20-win season (which might not be out of the question if we gave him run support) he would have a strong chance of winning the award.

I think the 'lack of run support' argument is overblown. Of MLB pitchers with at least 15 starts this year, there are 17 with less average run support than Gray. If you want to take pity on somebody, try Logan Webb - he's 14-17 on the year with an ERA of 3.45. Unfortunately, his average run support is 3.19 runs a game.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Muppet said:

A modern day Dave Stieb. The best pitcher nobody remembers. No matter how good you are, it's hard to win games when your team just can't win games.

That is just false, plain and simple. The Twins are nine games over .500 with 81 wins at the moment - of the 30 MLB teams, there are 21 teams with fewer wins.

[Fritzderkat]

I'm all for Sonny, tune in just to watch him pitch.

[yeahyabetcha]

He has a nice year, but not Cy Young material.  May not even finish top 5.