What Should the Twins Do with Trevor Larnach?

[AlGoreRythm]

2 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

Not sure one can rely on Paddack after returning from a 2nd TJ procedure.

Even before his injury last season he's been more of a back end 4th or 5th starter.

One would hope Ober could pitch more innings next year than this year, but I'm not sure we could rely on him for a playoff start next season, considering how he faded this year towards the end of the season.

The starting pitching depth this season has been very necessary and the list of depth starters you posted seems to have extremely high variance in what we could expect. I'm not convinced Varland can control the HRs as a starter so I'm not sure he can be counted on for a full season's work at starter.

Do I think the Twins will need to acquire a frontline starter in the off-season? That's probably not necessary, but I'd like to see them acquire one more 3rd starter type to hedge against injuries and the potential that some of the depth you listed doesn't perform.

[farmerguychris]

I think we have another year before we HAVE to have this discussion.

If he has an option left, I think we'll be happy to have the depth for 2024 in case of injuries.  If we prove healthy enough to not need him, then trade for pitching.  Seems pretty simple to me.

[Brandon]

17 minutes ago, roger said:

None of us knows what the future holds with guys like Larnach.  And Wallner.  Not me, not anyone here at TD, not the players and not the Twins.

The Matt Wallner I see striking out for the Twins certainly hasn't locked down his spot in 2024.  The way Larnach has been playing at AAA is encouraging.  I expect both will be in spring training with the better player opening the season with the Twins.  The other player will be at AAA and likely moved in a trade late in spring training or more likely during the season.

This is what I’m thinking.  Let Larnarch and Wallner compete for the spot next spring but the competition should go on all season in case one of them has a huge slump in the majors.  The other OF gets a chance if earned.  Maybe Lee can play LF instead.

[P Meyer]

26 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Tom Kelly used to say teams need give a guy 1,000 AB's before you know what you have.  He is still about 350 AB's away from that number.  My feeling is to keep him and give him those AB's at the MLB level so we can see if he can adjust.  As most have said, his value is low anyway so if he improves, then we have a solid corner OF guy or one with more trade value.

I believe this is ideal, but I have no issue if the Twins decide to move on. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

Shop Larnach, there may be a team that is willing to trade some possible pen guys for him.  He has little trade value though that is the problem.  We cannot just have him up at the MLB level learning to hit off speed pitches.  If he cannot learn to do that, he has no value at majors.  If a team is willing to work with him and we can get something in return, make the move.  If not, he will most likely get DFA some time next year anyways. 

I think the move with Larnach is to trade him to a non-contending/rebuilding team like Pittsburg, Oakland, Washington, Colorado, etc. That's where he will have a value - a team that will live with an up and down year in the hope that another 500-600 ABs will help him smooth out the rough edges and become a quality hitter on a pre-arbitration contract in his prime.  We need to do it now because he's 27 and his "future value" is already starting to wane. I think Kepler and Polanco's options are both exercised, as they should be given their performance, age, and the cost. I just don't see Larnach having a spot over Kepler, Buxton (assuming he comes back), Wallner, Castro, Taylor (he'll be re-signed), or even Gordon. Also, Lewis may need to move to LF to open a spot for Lee or Miranda (remember him? He was good in 2022). Trade Larnach this off season while he has value and give the guy a chance to be on a team that will play him through his development, 

What could we get? Not a lot, but I like the Tampa approach. Let's find a team with a couple of developing players at the AA level or lower that we think could be something in 2-3 years or a AAA/AA pitcher that seems to have talent but just can't seem to put it together.  In other words, a risk with some upside. I don't think Larnach will get us an established MLB reliever. That we have to develop or buy on the FA market (like that's going to happen). Bottom line, trade him to a bad team for either prospects with a more distant horizon or for another guy that's blocked or stalled and see if you can do something with the return, 

[jmlease1]

16 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I think we have another year before we HAVE to have this discussion.

If he has an option left, I think we'll be happy to have the depth for 2024 in case of injuries.  If we prove healthy enough to not need him, then trade for pitching.  Seems pretty simple to me.

This. I thought Larnach was out of options after this season, but if he has one remaining there's pretty much no reason for the Twins to move on from him unless they think he's suddenly going to be poison in the locker room in AAA. I expect Kepler to be back until he's actually gone. While Wallner appears to have passed Larnach on the depth chart, it's always possible that Larnach could beat him out in spring training, but he definitely provides good depth against any of the LH OF bats going down with an injury and would make it easier to go into the season with 4 primary OF (say, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, and Martin) and keep guys like Farmer and Polanco on the roster.

There's actually not all that much depth pushing for jobs in the OF in the minors right now outside of Martin (who also can play in the infield) and Larnach (who has struggled mightily against breaking balls in MLB). Severino has little experience in the OF, so from a prospect perspective the next group are A-ball guys like Rosario and Rodriguez who haven't even tasted AA yet. (or walker jenkins, who hasn't left FL) There's real talent rising, but if you take Larnach out of the picture, lock Kirilloff in at 1B (and presume Gallo is gone) the Twins no longer have a huge reservoir of LH corner OFs ready to roll.

Keep Larnach. Have him battle with Wallner for the job. Be ready when someone gets hurt. Worry about dealing anyone at midseason or after 2024.

[jorgenswest]

48 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I don't understand the question? He's in AAA as depth. No one is dealing a legit pitching prospect for him at this point. 

Concur.

The Twins should expect around 18 position players to get significant playing time next year. Larnach is valuable depth with that remaining option. I think of Miranda similarly. They both will get an opportunity next year and with that opportunity they can take that step towards being a valuable regular.

[FlyingFinn]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Raya is 21 in A+ with 59 innings he probably isn't a real solution next year, Festa has 90 innings and a 4.39 ERA in AA, again probably not a solution other than a few starts. Paddock is coming off TJ surgury and will be on a innings limit. So in reality there isn't much depth after the starting 4.

Raya has actually been in AA for awhile. And I do think the Twins plan on Paddack to be in the rotation next year. He is ahead of where Maeda was a year ago.

[mickster]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I would certainly shop Larnach.  He's slid too far down the pecking order to be considered a future starter or even a role player.  Both Kepler and Polanco have made the case to have their options picked up.  But the very real possibility exits that one could be traded.  In my opinion, the player most likely to be dealt is Polanco, especially if he has a strong finish to this season and performs well in the playoffs.  Lewis is here to stay.  Lee will probably break camp with the team in 2024.  With Castro and Farmer coming back, (maybe Gordon or Austin Martin) and if Polanco builds his value back up, I could see Polanco traded for a full time CF or a SP to replace Gray.

If the Twins traded Polanco in a multi player package for a full time CF, depending on how much that guy would cost payroll wise, I could see them sticking their necks out trying to get Sonny Gray to return and have stability in the rotation for next season.  Really, this is what makes the most sense.  You invest in a couple of vets like Lopez and Gray to lead a staff with young talent on the rise, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddock.  

Maeda should NOT be retained.  He should no longer be in the conversation for our rotation next year.  He's too inconsistent.  I'd sign him to a team friendly contract as a BP piece, but not as a SP.  

So maybe Larnach is included in a deal with Polanco or maybe each are dealt separately.  But I see the Twins making at least a couple of trades this off season.  

I think the FO will see what they can get for Larnach, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon and Miranda during the offseason.  Castro is better than Gordon and Martin's value is high right now.

[Mike Sixel]

6 minutes ago, mickster said:

I think the FO will see what they can get for Larnach, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon and Miranda during the offseason.  Castro is better than Gordon and Martin's value is high right now.

They aren't trading Martin. He's likely the starting CF or LF or 4th OF. Zero chance. Gordon? Really?

They aren't trading Miranda at his lowest value possible. 

[Minny505]

3 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

And Randy Dobnak🤫

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You make acquisitions by trading from depth.  Larnach is an optimal trade chip:  very unlikely to see time on the Twins, but still has value as a prospect.

Package him for an upgrade or a position of need.

[High heat]

I believe Larnach is out of options after this season, Larnach likely has some trade value for a middle reliever or deep prospect.  Larnach and Gordon are likely gone this off-season and a decision on Miranda also needs to be made.

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

The Twins will need to acquire a starter in the off-season, and maybe that involves trading some of the younger guys.  As of now, it would make sense for the Twins to pick up the options for both Kepler and Polanco, and that doesn't leave enough spots for all of the younger guys to get regular playing time.

I was one of the guys calling for Kepler's head...but have been happily proven wrong the past two months.  That said, I'm still not sure he should be with the team next year in order to make room for the youngsters (probably not Larnach).  However, I certainly understand keeping him.  Polanco is another story.  I love the guy and recognize the value he continues to bring...when he is available.  But the years are catching up with Jorge; his injuries are adding up and the Twins have loads of young and veteran infield talent.  I personally feel that the Twins should move on for next year.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, High heat said:

I believe Larnach is out of options after this season, Larnach likely has some trade value for a middle reliever or deep prospect.  Larnach and Gordon are likely gone this off-season and a decision on Miranda also needs to be made.

Roster resource on fangraphs says he has two..... Less than two years of MLB service time also.

[strumdatjag]

Just about every team has one or two players like this - a professional losing prospect who has become and enigma.  They also have scouts and there could be one scout (or more) who thinks Larnach can slay his off-speed demons (a a bad smy other issues)  with just a few adjustments.

In the off-season, the Twins need to find another team’s enigma, who we think can benefit from a few adjustments  Via trade, give Larnach and that other player the proverbial “change of scenery.”  

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

This. I thought Larnach was out of options after this season, but if he has one remaining there's pretty much no reason for the Twins to move on from him unless they think he's suddenly going to be poison in the locker room in AAA. I expect Kepler to be back until he's actually gone. While Wallner appears to have passed Larnach on the depth chart, it's always possible that Larnach could beat him out in spring training, but he definitely provides good depth against any of the LH OF bats going down with an injury and would make it easier to go into the season with 4 primary OF (say, Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, and Martin) and keep guys like Farmer and Polanco on the roster.

There's actually not all that much depth pushing for jobs in the OF in the minors right now outside of Martin (who also can play in the infield) and Larnach (who has struggled mightily against breaking balls in MLB). Severino has little experience in the OF, so from a prospect perspective the next group are A-ball guys like Rosario and Rodriguez who haven't even tasted AA yet. (or walker jenkins, who hasn't left FL) There's real talent rising, but if you take Larnach out of the picture, lock Kirilloff in at 1B (and presume Gallo is gone) the Twins no longer have a huge reservoir of LH corner OFs ready to roll.

Keep Larnach. Have him battle with Wallner for the job. Be ready when someone gets hurt. Worry about dealing anyone at midseason or after 2024.

I understand the logic behind this, but have one caveat. I think we need to take in account the very real possibility that one of the current young IFs is going to move to the OF to get everyone into the lineup, especially if Polanco is retained. I think there is at least a 75% chance that Polanco's option is exercised given his production and the cost, and the way the Twins just seem to score more runs when he's in the lineup.  Add in Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, and next year's IF is full or even 1 oversold. And that's assuming Castro and Gordon are both full time OFs or Gordon is possibly gone  In 2024 you have to add Miranda back into the IF mix and possibly Lee or Severino by mid-season. That's quite a log jam of players, 8 of whom have had at least some MLB success. I expect that one of them will become a LF option in 2024, probably either Kirilloff or Lewis. It's also possible that Lewis may move to CF. Now the OF is really oversold. 

My view is trade from depth to fill weakness or to get long term prospects. I wouldn't trade Larnach just to trade him, but I would trade him for longer term pitching options like guys in A or AA with upside. I also might trade him for a stuck or stalled talented AA or AAA guy who pitches or catches, but that's less likely. If that's not available, keep him for depth. But don't hesitate to pull the trigger if a decent trade is available. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I understand the logic behind this, but have one caveat. I think we need to take in account the very real possibility that one of the current young IFs is going to move to the OF to get everyone into the lineup, especially if Polanco is retained. I think there is at least a 75% chance that Polanco's option is exercised given his production and the cost, and the way the Twins just seem to score more runs when he's in the lineup.  Add in Kirilloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Farmer, Solano, and next year's IF is full or even 1 oversold. And that's assuming Castro and Gordon are both full time OFs or Gordon is possibly gone  In 2024 you have to add Miranda back into the IF mix and possibly Lee or Severino by mid-season. That's quite a log jam of players, 8 of whom have had at least some MLB success. I expect that one of them will become a LF option in 2024, probably either Kirilloff or Lewis. It's also possible that Lewis may move to CF. Now the OF is really oversold. 

My view is trade from depth to fill weakness or to get long term prospects. I wouldn't trade Larnach just to trade him, but I would trade him for longer term pitching options like guys in A or AA with upside. I also might trade him for a stuck or stalled talented AA or AAA guy who pitches or catches, but that's less likely. If that's not available, keep him for depth. But don't hesitate to pull the trigger if a decent trade is available. 

Who's trading an elite pitching prospect for Larnach? No one. AAA isn't full of OF options either. 

[Riverbrian]

40 Man Roster Spot with Two Options Remaining. 

Nothing has to be done with Larnach. 

 

[Unwinder]

4 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

Twins didn't NEED a pitcher this year either when they had Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda and Ober ready to go, Varland, SWR, Winder, Balazovic, and Dobnak all in the mix for depth, and Paddack's return looking like a potential midseason boost. I'd say it'd be pretty hard to argue that they didn't end up needing Lopez to end up where they are now.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Raya has actually been in AA for awhile. And I do think the Twins plan on Paddack to be in the rotation next year. He is ahead of where Maeda was a year ago.

You are correct, he has started 10 games has 25 innings and a 6.12 ERA with 13 walks. I am a big fan of him, but I don't think we will see him at target field until 25.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Minny505 said:

And Randy Dobnak🤫

He is only 192 days older than Alcala

[KirbyDome89]

The FO wouldn't quit Kepler at any point this year, he's a lock. Gordon and Celestino don't belong in a corner OF discussion. Idk what to think about Martin. The turnaround is encouraging, but the track record is pretty bad. I'm not sure he's a guy you're making plans for. Has Wallner done enough to be counted on as a starter in LF? I'd say no.

I'm keeping Larnach. I don't see the point in dealing him at a depressed value, especially when you consider the names blocking him are kinda shaky. 

[Mike Sixel]

51 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The FO wouldn't quit Kepler at any point this year, he's a lock. Gordon and Celestino don't belong in a corner OF discussion. Idk what to think about Martin. The turnaround is encouraging, but the track record is pretty bad. I'm not sure he's a guy you're making plans for. Has Wallner done enough to be counted on as a starter in LF? I'd say no.

I'm keeping Larnach. I don't see the point in dealing him at a depressed value, especially when you consider the names blocking him are kinda shaky. 

The track record with healthy Martin is great.....

[LewFordLives]

8 hours ago, Supfin99 said:

Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

Other than Lopez and Ryan, every pitcher on that list has question marks. If the Twins have such great pitching depth, then why was Dallas Keuchel starting today? They need to replace Sonny Gray (maybe with Gray), and that won't be cheap in terms of dollars or trade capital.

And I agree with some of the other posts that say it would take a lot more than Larnach to land a quality pitcher. It's gonna hurt.

[Shaitan]

8 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Tom Kelly used to say teams need give a guy 1,000 AB's before you know what you have.  He is still about 350 AB's away from that number.  My feeling is to keep him and give him those AB's at the MLB level so we can see if he can adjust.  As most have said, his value is low anyway so if he improves, then we have a solid corner OF guy or one with more trade value.

He has an option left.

He's under 1000 MLB AB.

His trade value is low.

It seems obvious what's in store next year. A chance to reclaim his rank.

Besides, have y'all watched the Twins the past 5 years? They're going to need to roster at least 9 outfielders over the course of a full season. This is the first year we didn't see any Ryan LaMarre-types (until September) and I'm thankful for that. Don't clean house on "former prospects" until you have to.

[Shaitan]

7 hours ago, mickster said:

I think the FO will see what they can get for Larnach, Austin Martin, Nick Gordon and Miranda during the offseason.  Castro is better than Gordon and Martin's value is high right now.

Sure, they may stick their toes in the water. They did last year with Kepler (allegedly). And nobody offered anything of value (presumably).

I would think Kepler's history/consistency would bring more than a fringe/former prospect or utility player.

In other words: you're right. I bet they ask around. But I bet they don't make a move unless it's part of a larger package.

And that's unlikely. This team doesn't need to clear space on the 40-roster. There are several AAAA players they can DFA at any time (Luphlow, Moran, Stevenson, etc). Though I suppose I'm forgetting about the 100 players on the 60-day IL.

[saviking]

10 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

I believe if we keep Kepler, Larnach will be gone. But if we trade Kepler, Larnach gets his chance (again) to prove that he can hit MLB pitchers breaking balls. I would trade Kepler as his hitting wasn't good for 3.5 years before being great the last half of this season. Certainly can see why many would disagree with me on that and think Kepler has found something that will carry over to 2024. If he goes 0fer in the playoffs, many people will turn on Kepler. If he does great in the playoffs, he will be with the Twins in 2024.

Interesting off season decision for the Twins.

We did Larnach, a number 1 draft pick, a grave disservice by signing Gallo and robing Larnach of a year in the majors to get seasoned.. I think it was the biggest travesty of the season. 

[DocBauer]

Not sure about comments about his defense. He's at least average defensively with a great arm. 

Offensively, he's got real power potential, including opposite field power. Teams recognize that as it shows what he might yet do/be. The whole Gallo situation is tired, but also real. He's probably lost some opportunity this season as a result. But what's really hurt him is a pair of unrelated injuries that put a damper on his first 2 ML seasons where he was looking like the prospect he was supposed to be.

The Twins FO doesn't like to move depth. And Larnach is depth for Wallner and Kepler both in 2024. So they aren't looking to give him away. (Personally, I believe Wallner is a better hitting version of Gallo and is here to stay).

But the FO is not afraid to move talent if they get back what they need. Much like Miami looking to add bats and trading for Arraez, I could see Larnach as part of a package to a rebuilding team looking for offense. 

Hypothetically...while it might come back to haunt...might we see a Miranda and Larnach trade to someone like the A's for a quality arm, preferably a LH arm, to potentially surge their offense with a couple of potentially difference making bats?, Washington maybe? Just spitballing. 

He fits a role for 2024. But he might also fill a role to someone as a package in similar fashion as Arraez did to bring in Lopez this year.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Not sure about comments about his defense. He's at least average defensively with a great arm. 

Offensively, he's got real power potential, including opposite field power. Teams recognize that as it shows what he might yet do/be. The whole Gallo situation is tired, but also real. He's probably lost some opportunity this season as a result. But what's really hurt him is a pair of unrelated injuries that put a damper on his first 2 ML seasons where he was looking like the prospect he was supposed to be.

The Twins FO doesn't like to move depth. And Larnach is depth for Wallner and Kepler both in 2024. So they aren't looking to give him away. (Personally, I believe Wallner is a better hitting version of Gallo and is here to stay).

But the FO is not afraid to move talent if they get back what they need. Much like Miami looking to add bats and trading for Arraez, I could see Larnach as part of a package to a rebuilding team looking for offense. 

Hypothetically...while it might come back to haunt...might we see a Miranda and Larnach trade to someone like the A's for a quality arm, preferably a LH arm, to potentially surge their offense with a couple of potentially difference making bats?, Washington maybe? Just spitballing. 

He fits a role for 2024. But he might also fill a role to someone as a package in similar fashion as Arraez did to bring in Lopez this year.

Those two and what? Because combined they aren't worth much of anything right now. They need to be healthy and effective.