Tigers 9, Twins 5: Pitching Falters Again, Detroit Wins Another One

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Bailey Ober and the Twins bullpen can't hold off the Tigers' lineup, and Minnesota drops their sixth out of ten against Detroit for the season.

Image courtesy of Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

 

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober, 5.0 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (93 pitches, 64 strikes, 68.8%)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (14), Joey Gallo (18)
Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-.330), Jordan Balazovic (-.159), Kyle Farmer (-.144)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Ober is off to a slow start
With a 3.68 ERA (3rd best in baseball) and 13.2 fWAR (2nd best), the Twins rotation establish itself as one of the most dominant in baseball during the first half of the season. In the second half, however, the Twins’ rotation saw a significant decrease in productivity, with an ERA of 4.45 (ranked 15th in baseball). All but one of Minnesota’s starters have had at least one rough start since the All-Star break.

That includes Bailey Ober, roughed up by the Kansas City Royals in his final start of July when he gave up six earned runs in four innings of work, by far his worst start. Ober had been so effective before that only after that start had his ERA gone above three for the first time this season. After an excellent bounce-back start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he wanted to remain on track with tonight’s start.

But to begin this game, Ober could not prevent Detroit from scoring. Riley Greene drew a four-pitch walk against him in the first, then Matt Vierling singled to put two men on. After striking out Spencer Torkelson for the second out, Ober gave up a single to Kerry Carpenter, and a rare misplay by Max Kepler in right allowed both runners to score.

Correa and Gallo homer, but Ober lets the lead slip away
The Tigers’ early lead was short-lived, as the Twins rallied for three runs in the second. Carlos Correa jumped on the second pitch he saw for a solo home run to center, his 14th of the year. Coming into this game, C4 had a .969 OPS in his previous seven games, and he seems to be heating up at the plate. Tigers starter Alex Faedo managed to get two quick outs after that, but Minnesota did some two-out damage. Ryan Jeffers hit a long double to left, and Joey Gallo went yard for the first time since July 17 to give the Twins their first lead of the night.

But that lead wouldn’t last, either. Detroit scored two more runs after collecting four hits in the bottom of the second and regained a one-run lead. Zach McKinstry and Eric Haase doubled and singled, respectively, and Greene and Vierling hit back-to-back two-out singles to score both runners. It would be the fourth time Ober has allowed four runs or more in a start this season – though one of them was unearned.

Both pitchers settled in briefly, but Ober was in trouble again in the fifth. Torkelson blasted a leadoff home run to right. Now, Ober has given up at least a home run in his last five starts, which hadn’t happened since September 2021. Before the inning was over, Miguel Cabrera hit his second single of the night shortly before McKinstry hit a double to left to put two men in scoring position. Fortunately, Ober got the final out, stranding both runners and keeping this a two-run game.

Twins get within one… but not for long
Faedo departed the game in the fifth, and Minnesota’s offense became more productive. Matt Wallner got hit by a pitch against reliever Brendan White, and then he was waived around third to score a Willi Castro double to left center, putting the Twins again within a run. With great baserunning, the Twins were close to tying the game or even taking the lead: Castro stole third, and later on, after drawing a walk, Jordan Luplow stole second, putting two men in scoring position with two outs. Kyle Farmer fought hard during his at-bat but struck out after six pitches, ending the inning.

Emilio Pagán, who came into tonight’s game posting a brilliant 1.26 ERA over his previous 15 outings, continued his redemption tour by pitching a scoreless 1-2-3 sixth on 14 pitches. He’s prevented opposing teams from scoring in 15 of his last 18 outings. But came the seventh inning, and Jordan Balazovic couldn’t keep the Tiger lineup on a leash. Torkelson smacked a leadoff home run off him to score Detroit’s sixth run. Balazovic went on to give up three singles, allowing Haase to push Jake Rogers across and make it 7-4 Detroit.

Lefty reliever Tyler Holton dominated Minnesota’s lineup for two-plus innings: Twins batters went 0-for-7 with a walk against him. Still, the Twins had a slight chance of rallying back in the ninth if their deficit had remained three runs. However, Balazovic struggled again in the bottom of the eighth, and the game was out of reach. Vierling tripled and then scored on a wild pitch. Torkelson, who had drawn a walk right after Vierling’s triple, scored from second on a Carpenter single.

The Twins put on a fight in the ninth and loaded them up against reliever Trey Wingenter. A.J. Hinch was forced to bring José Cisnero to get the final out. He gave up an RBI single to Kepler that scored the Twins’ fifth run, but he struck out Correa to end the threat.

What’s Next?
Both teams retake the field on Thursday (Aug 10) for the series' final game. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 pm CDT, with Kenta Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA) trying to keep his hot streak alive and Reese Olson (1-5, 4.94 ERA) taking the mound for the Tigers.

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	TOT
Balazovic	26	0	0	0	39	65
Winder	0	0	0	42	0	42
Headrick	0	0	41	0	0	41
Pagán	0	18	0	0	14	32
Jax	0	27	0	0	0	27
Floro	0	20	0	0	0	20
Thielbar	0	17	0	0	0	17
Durán	0	0	0	0	0	0

View full article

[VivaBomboRivera!]

We got beat yesterday. Today we beat ourselves. 🤕

[tony&rodney]

Befuddling why Balazovic wasn't lifted after giving up the home run. He did not look sharp and the bullpen was rested.

Oh well.

[Rik19753]

I didn't watch the whole game, but it seems like the Twins were killed by BABIP luck today.

Tigers: 15 hits on 27 BIP for a .556 BABIP

Twins: 5 hits on 22 BIP for a .227 BABIP

Both teams had 2 HRs and the Twins had 5 walks to the Tigers' 2.

The Twins actually had more hard hit balls than the Tigers as well.

It just wasn't our day. There's nothing you can do about it. Let's just hope that tomorrow our luck will be better.

[darwin22]

This---the last 2 nights---is EXACTLY why I refuse to re-invest any time or energy into this team.

Staring head on at another L tomorrow with Skubal pitching and the same Friday night in Philly with Sanchez getting the start.

Yeah, I know CLE lost tonight, but I refuse to believe that this season will end with a happy ending.

 

[darwin22]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Befuddling why Balazovic wasn't lifted after giving up the home run. He did not look sharp and the bullpen was rested.

Oh well.

Because Rocco's spreadsheet instructed him to play for games this weekend.

[Mortimerkenny21]

19 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Yeah, I know CLE lost tonight, but I refuse to believe that this season will end with a happy ending.

That's your right to refuse a happy ending. Better man than me.

[USAFChief]

Just not enough thrust to reach the exit velocity required to overcome the heavy gravitational pull of .500

 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

49 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Because Rocco's spreadsheet instructed him to play for games this weekend.

[Hashim]

Why use Belzovic in a tight game? Use your better bullpen arms, they’re rested. 

[Rosterman]

Well, it is nice to know the Twins have a bunch of two-inning pitchers in WInder, Balazovic and Headrick. Maybe, at times, there would be less runs scored if the Rocco spreadsheet said "don't need to use for two innings."

Of course, bats again to blame. Twins walking and cut down jut a tad on the strikeouts today.

Gallo, Kepler, Taylor all want to be the power pak for the Twins, making them keepers for the season, I guess.

[Blyleven2011]

One step forward and then 3 steps back  ....

I guarantee the Twins will win a playoff game this fall if they make it  ....

They lose to  the teams they are supposed to beat  , they win against  the better teams  so that is my reasoning for winning a playoff  game  ...

[bighat]

8 hours ago, darwin22 said:

This---the last 2 nights---is EXACTLY why I refuse to re-invest any time or energy into this team.

Staring head on at another L tomorrow with Skubal pitching and the same Friday night in Philly with Sanchez getting the start.

Yeah, I know CLE lost tonight, but I refuse to believe that this season will end with a happy ending.

 

Same here. These guys aren't fun to watch and they are racking up ugly losses to ugly teams in the process. 

Since Rocco got here, there's never been any sense of urgency with this team. No flavor, no heart, and they don't know how to shut the door.  These lifeless performances speak volumes. 

And I fear that Buxton coming back will only make the team worse. I can't believe I'm actually typing that, but it's a sad reality. 

[Doctor Wu]

How did Ober look overall? He was one of our steadiest pitchers the past few months but his last two or three starts have been rough. Is he tired and in need of some rest? Hopefully, no injury concerns, but he needs to get back in the groove ASAP. 

[Karbo]

The lack of hitting against lefties is getting old. If I was managing against the Twins I would use as many lefties as I could.

[wabene]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

How did Ober look overall? He was one of our steadiest pitchers the past few months but his last two or three starts have been rough. Is he tired and in need of some rest? Hopefully, no injury concerns, but he needs to get back in the groove ASAP. 

When Joe comes back I would have Dallas pitch for Bailey next. He is in uncharted waters for innings pitched in a season from here on out. Might be able to recharge him. Maybe not though, he just might not have much left this year. Maybe Rocco's talking tablet or prophetic spreadsheet will have the answer, lol. 

[umterp23]

Correa had a chance to be a leader in 9th, but took off speed pitch right down the middle.  Took fastball right down the middle.  2 Strikes looking.  Then swings at crap low and away in dirt and shrugs it off as oh well.  Holy bleep for a $33MM so called leader.  Not saying to blast one in that position, easier said then done, but put the bat to the ball and see what happens.  Tight sphincter moment I guess

[mikelink45]

I am concerned that Bailey is running out of gas.  Here is Baseball Reference look at last four games. In his career he has pitched 92, 56, and now 108 innings.  This is a similar situation to Ryan.  

DateV        Opp     Result  IP  H R SO
2023-08-09   DET      L 5-9 5.0 11 5  9
2023-08-04   ARI      W 3-2 5.0  6 2  3
2023-07-29   KCR     L 7-10 4.0 11 6  5
2023-07-23   CHW W 5-4 (12) 6.0  5 3  6

And Balazovic has now joined Winder, Sands, Headrick in the less than reliable former SP category.  I am disappointed in this. 

And the team seems to be having a case of altitude sickness since they were really starting to pull away from .500.

 

[DJL44]

30 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

And Balazovic has now joined Winder, Sands, Headrick in the less than reliable former SP category.  I am disappointed in this. 

This was the most predictable thing ever. The previous month was his best stretch of pitching in 4 years. He wasn't good in AAA before his callup. He has overperformed compared to my expectations.

[WinTwins2023]

10 hours ago, Hashim said:

Why use Belzovic in a tight game? Use your better bullpen arms, they’re rested. 

It is interesting how this team tends to use their bullpen in a game they are down just a run. When you have this limited of a bullpen you have to pick your spots. In all honesty, I'm surprised they used Pagan.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Provus said during the broadcast, when they were only a run down, that he felt like the Twins should chase the win anyway and line up Thielbar, Jax, and Duran to keep the game close. Provus might have been right. So I’d say Rocco’s ‘feel for the game’ or lack thereof is still something that will need to be overcome if the Twins are going to make any noise later. 

[USAFChief]

33 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

This was the most predictable thing ever. The previous month was his best stretch of pitching in 4 years. He wasn't good in AAA before his callup. He has overperformed compared to my expectations.

 Bingo.

 

[Aggies7]

Lots of talk about a couple of SP’s being burned out. It’s early august. Mind boggling.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, Hashim said:

Why use Belzovic in a tight game? Use your better bullpen arms, they’re rested. 

Gotta try to use the guy in a game where the score is essentially neutral. Guy has to get some outs - can’t second guess the manager every time a BP arm gives up a run!

I think we were down 1 when he came in - not a Jax/Thielbar spot…..IMO. Maybe Floro, but is he that much better or any better than Balazovic?

We moved J Lopez - need to find guys that can fill out the 8 spots.

[saviking]

Just a heads up. Aaron Gleeman wrote a very comprehensive article on Correa's stats this year and what it may portend for the future. I've been hard on Carrea this year but I've got to say he has played far worse than I ever imagined based on many metrics. The positive news is there is good reason for him to bounce back next year at ahe 29. But bounce back is a relative term. It doesn't predict return to past glory. 

[DJL44]

50 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

We moved J Lopez - need to find guys that can fill out the 8 spots.

I think Louie Varland could be one of those guys in September. I trust him more than Balazovic. At some point they need to decide whether Varland is going to develop enough as a starter to contribute or if he should be converted to the bullpen. If he doesn't locate his slider better he's probably a reliever.

[wabene]

3 hours ago, Aggies7 said:

Lots of talk about a couple of SP’s being burned out. It’s early august. Mind boggling.

There is much info out there that lays out logical reasons why they might be burning out.

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, wabene said:

There is much info out there that lays out logical reasons why they might be burning out.

Not disagreeing with the assessment, just saying that going into a season knowing that 2/5’s of your rotation will be unable to pitch effectively into August is probably not a great recipe for success

[USAFChief]

55 minutes ago, wabene said:

There is much info out there that lays out logical reasons why they might be burning out.

There's nothing logical to me about 100 innings being too tough a workload.

We're a generation from 300 IP not being unusual.

[Hubie29]

17 hours ago, darwin22 said:

This---the last 2 nights---is EXACTLY why I refuse to re-invest any time or energy into this team.

Staring head on at another L tomorrow with Skubal pitching and the same Friday night in Philly with Sanchez getting the start.

Yeah, I know CLE lost tonight, but I refuse to believe that this season will end with a happy ending.

 

Couldn't agree more. It's been a year long thing for me. I used to live and die with the days twins result. Really don't even care anymore.  Apathy? I think alot of twins territory has it.