Eve of the Deadline: The Latest on Twins Trade Rumors

[Nick Nelson]

Your friends at Twins Daily have been keeping a close eye on the rumor mill so you don't have to.

With less than 24 hours remaining before Tuesday's 5:00 PM CT trade deadline, here's how the market is taking shape and where the Twins stand.

Image courtesy of John Jones-USA TODAY Sports (Harrison Bader)

Those who've followed the Twins for any length of time know that this front office operates in a shroud of secrecy. Rarely are their moves foreshadowed by media speculation, often coming seemingly out of nowhere. They tend to keep the lid tight, publicly anyway.

Their lone move so far in deadline season – trading Jorge López to the Marlins for Dylan Floro last week – was a fine example. While it's no surprise that Miami was willing to deal Floro and his expiring contract, his name wasn't bouncing around in tons of rumors or anything. Nor was López.

That said, the Twins have some pretty clear needs, and they've been open about receiving interest in certain players. While they stood pat on the day preceding the deadline, other moves around the league had implications for Minnesota's strategy. 

As we look ahead to deadline day (and potential late-night action preceding it), here's a rundown of what Twins fans should know right now. 

Twins are on the hunt for right-handed bats, relief help

Even after acquiring Floro, the Twins should still be in the market for another reliever. Their bullpen has been wobbling lately along with the rotation. While getting Caleb Thielbar back is helpful, optimism is limited around Brock Stewart's uncertain return. 

This year's bullpen was designed with López as an integral late-inning linchpin, so the Twins are now scrambling to backfill in terms of depth.

Meanwhile, in their final game ahead of the deadline, the Twins were shut down by another mediocre left-handed starter (Ryan Yarbrough), underscoring the need for an impact bat from the right side. 

One interesting potential match is the Yankees, who are known to be targeting corner outfielders. That's an area the Twins could help with. 

 

New York is reportedly receptive to dealing players with expiring contracts. "The Yankees continued to try to operate on two tracks — see if they could move out some veterans for prospects and perhaps salary relief while trying to acquire pieces that have control beyond the 2023 season," according to Joel Sherman in a new piece for the New York Post.

Harrison Bader is one name Sherman specifies as a candidate. Bader is a good-glove center fielder who swings righty and has a 1.210 OPS against left-handed pitchers this year (.841 career). Swapping him for, say, Trevor Larnach would make some sense on both sides, although the Yankees would need to add in more on top of the rental.

Seattle's Teoscar Hernandez, who would be a higher-upside RH bat than Bader (albeit not a center field option), reportedly has an active market, and is likely to move. 

 

Cleveland is ... selling?

Despite being only a half-game out in the division, the Guardians are acting as sellers. It's not a white flag necessarily, given the quality of this division, but the trade of Aaron Civale to the Rays on Wednesday for a prospect hardly signals an intent to press the Twins for the Central crown. 

 

Civale ranked second among Guardians pitchers in fWAR with a 2.34 ERA in 13 starts. He's under team control for two more years. In return, Cleveland got back Kyle Manzardo, a 23-year-old lefty-swinging first baseman who is highly regarded as a prospect. 

Coming off a Miranda-esque breakout season in the minors (he posted a 1.043 OPS between Single-A and Double-A in 2022), Manzardo was on the back half of most Top 100 prospect lists this spring, and played in the Futures Game earlier this month.

The move is not dissimilar in nature from four years ago when Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer for Franmil Reyes at the 2019 deadline, hoping to sell high on a good pitcher inching toward free agency while bringing a high-upside young bat into their system. 

They'll hope Manzardo works out better than Reyes did, while Twins fans hope he doesn't.

 

This trade is unlikely to offer much positive impact for Cleveland in the second half. Quite the opposite. Barring a counterbalancing "buy" type move before the deadline strikes, the Guardians are lying down – no Civale, no Shane Bieber, no Triston McKenzie. The Twins have no excuse not to clamp down this division, and use this opportunity to position themselves for success in the postseason.

Twins trade targets are falling off the table

The Twins have a history of remaining patient in these situations, letting the market take shape and seizing opportunities in the late stages. Last year, most of their action came close to the deadline itself.

But there's a cost to standing still. Monday saw several deals take place, including some desirable targets snatched up by other contenders. Here are a few trades consummated on Monday involving players who were connected to the Twins, or might have interested them for specific reasons:

• Diamondbacks acquired closer Paul Sewald from the Mariners.
• Brewers acquired utilityman Mark Canha from the Mets. 
• Cubs acquired infielder Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals.
• Reds acquired left-handed reliever Sam Moll from the Athletics.

Tomorrow could be a busy day. Make sure you stay plugged into Twins Daily (and our deadline news feed specifically) all day long.

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[Danchat]

I'd be ticked off if I were a Cleveland fan, a single 1B prospect for 2.5 years of Civale? I'm sure he's good, but you should get multiple prospects in return for multiple controllable years of a quality starting pitcher.

[RickOShea]

9 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I'd be ticked off if I were a Cleveland fan, a single 1B prospect for 2.5 years of Civale? I'm sure he's good, but you should get multiple prospects in return for multiple controllable years of a quality starting pitcher.

And I think Twins fans should be embarrassed.  Cleveland, still believes it can be a seller, IMO, and still be in line to take the Central Division title.

[TNtwins85]

10 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I'd be ticked off if I were a Cleveland fan, a single 1B prospect for 2.5 years of Civale? I'm sure he's good, but you should get multiple prospects in return for multiple controllable years of a quality starting pitcher.

What would be even worse is if the buying Twins lost the division to the clearly selling Guardians.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Strategic trade by Cleveland. They sold high on Civale and are thinking beyond 2023.

Even if Cleveland happens to back into the postseason this year, they have no shot of going anywhere. The Twins at least have a punchers chance of advancing past the first round. 

I have no idea how Cleveland fans feel about that trade. Probably a range of opinions. 

I am expecting a quiet day tomorrow, but like you said, with this front office you have no idea. I’m confident Larnach stays put.

Can money and draft picks be traded nowadays?

[Cap'n Piranha]

If anything, the Civale trade further reinforces that the Twins should sell, or at least not give up future assets for mediocre veterans.  If the Twins need to be buyers to outperform an aggressively mediocre Guardians team trading away its best players, that says volumes about the improbability of beating actual good teams in the postseason.

[twinstalker]

39 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I'd be ticked off if I were a Cleveland fan, a single 1B prospect for 2.5 years of Civale? I'm sure he's good, but you should get multiple prospects in return for multiple controllable years of a quality starting pitcher.

Civale has been horse-bleep, and his good pitching stretches are more lucky pitching stretches.  They got a steal here, and if you don't think the Twins should have sold Maeda for that (because he's better than Civale at their bests), you're not seeing things right.

Mostly, though, two things will probably happen: the world will find a hole in Manzardo's swing that only the Rays can see now, and Civale will become 5x the pitcher he is now.  Because that's Tampa.  Or possibly not.  While I'm sure Cleveland struggles to evaluate hitting, they must think Civale's at his peak, and they have some cred there.

[twinstalker]

Cleveland knows what it's doing in general here.  It's taking an unstable bleh stock that's been on the rise and selling at the top.  I doubt Falvey could bring himself to make this same trade.  Well, actually, I doubt Falvey could even get the name Manzardo out of his mouth with TB.  He'd probably give up Maeda/Civale for one of TB's failed second base prospects.  

[Winston Smith]

Wonder if they can trade for a heart?

[curt1965]

I’m afraid the Twins are going to give up Larnach for a song. The Twins lost several players that would have helped them today. I have no faith they will win the division………

[dxpavelka]

How desperate do the Yankees have to be if they are looking to the Twins for LF help? 

 

[D.C Twins]

The Central Division can now officially be called The Sh- Show....

With Chicago and Cleveland selling along with good 'ol KC and Detroit....

The Twins can sell and still accidentally win The Sh- Show... !

[KirbyDome89]

2 hours ago, RickOShea said:

And I think Twins fans should be embarrassed.  Cleveland, still believes it can be a seller, IMO, and still be in line to take the Central Division title.

What else is that FO going to tell their fans?

"Hey guys, I know we're only .5 games back but ownership is cheap as ****, so we picked up a replacement for Naylor when we inevitably have to trade him in a year or two."

[Fezig]

This team should not buy. Unless they can get a player that shows the lineup how to make contact this team is headed for another 0fer in the playoffs. 

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Cleveland knows what it's doing in general here.  It's taking an unstable bleh stock that's been on the rise and selling at the top.  I doubt Falvey could bring himself to make this same trade.  Well, actually, I doubt Falvey could even get the name Manzardo out of his mouth with TB.  He'd probably give up Maeda/Civale for one of TB's failed second base prospects.  

In 5 years you may well know that Manzardo is a failed prospect. It doesn’t matter if  Falvey can say the name or not.

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

How desperate do the Yankees have to be if they are looking to the Twins for LF help? 

 

Send em Gallo and blow em a kiss..

[mikelink45]

I look at the standings and understand that Cleveland does not see a WS this year.  They are 53 - 54 and know that is mediocre.  We are 54 - 53 and thinking of a championship.  Every other team in our lousy division has sold and should be weaker going to the end of the season.  If we have enough in division games we might make out record look glossier, but overall we are really missing something (one commenter said heart).  

In combined standings we are 17, Cleveland 19 out of 30.

In the AL our record puts us number 10 Clebveland #11.

In fact if you look at the AL standings (combined) Oakland holds last place.  Right above them in the order of their division standings is the Central Division.  We would be last place in the West and the East!

This is discouraging. 

[dxpavelka]

43 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Send em Gallo and blow em a kiss..

But that might put a dent in our quest for the MLB team strikeout record.  AND in Gallo's quest for the team individual record.......

[dxpavelka]

20 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I look at the standings and understand that Cleveland does not see a WS this year.  They are 53 - 54 and know that is mediocre.  We are 54 - 53 and thinking of a championship.  Every other team in our lousy division has sold and should be weaker going to the end of the season.  If we have enough in division games we might make out record look glossier, but overall we are really missing something (one commenter said heart).  

In combined standings we are 17, Cleveland 19 out of 30.

In the AL our record puts us number 10 Clebveland #11.

In fact if you look at the AL standings (combined) Oakland holds last place.  Right above them in the order of their division standings is the Central Division.  We would be last place in the West and the East!

This is discouraging. 

Sure it is.  But if you win a bad division you still get into the playoffs.  Everybody starts the playoffs with the same record. 

[Riverbrian]

27 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I look at the standings and understand that Cleveland does not see a WS this year. 

No team has the ability to see such things. 

Can you see such things? 

[LewFordLives]

8 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Civale has been horse-bleep, and his good pitching stretches are more lucky pitching stretches.  They got a steal here, and if you don't think the Twins should have sold Maeda for that (because he's better than Civale at their bests), you're not seeing things right.

 

No way would the Twins get a top 100 prospect for Maeda. Civale still has 2.5 years of team control. Maeda would be a rental who is still working back from TJ surgery.

[wabene]

Everybody talks about how great Tom Kelly and Andy McPhail were and the championship teams were. Now if this team does exactly the same thing as that mediocre '87 team in a crap division did, WOULDN'T THAT BE GREAT!!? YAY HAPPY HAPPY!! 

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What else is that FO going to tell their fans?

"Hey guys, I know we're only .5 games back but ownership is cheap as ****, so we picked up a replacement for Naylor when we inevitably have to trade him in a year or two."

And how did they get Josh Naylor?  They got him by trading away an established player (Clevinger) and he produced nothing for the Padres. Of course, they got own Miller, Cal Quantrill and Austin Hedges as well.  You are criticizing the strategy / practice that allowed them to acquire the good player you are referencing.  How does that make any sense?  The fact is that Cleveland has had more 90 win seasons than any other team in the bottom 1/2 of revenue over the last 20 years as a result of the practices you are criticizing.  

[mikelink45]

50 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

No team has the ability to see such things. 

Can you see such things? 

Yes, I predict that the Twins will not win the World Series this year. 

[In My La Z boy]

13 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

And how did they get Josh Naylor?  They got him by trading away an established player (Clevinger) and he produced nothing for the Padres. Of course, they got own Miller, Cal Quantrill and Austin Hedges as well.  You are criticizing the strategy / practice that allowed them to acquire the good player you are referencing.  How does that make any sense?  The fact is that Cleveland has had more 90 win seasons than any other team in the bottom 1/2 of revenue over the last 20 years as a result of the practices you are criticizing.  

I have learned to never question Tampa or Cleveland trades no matter how they first appear. Still in shock we received Ryan for Cruz. I will not be surprised in the least if Falvey trades both Gray and Maeda for prospects, and I'm thinking Kepler to NY. He would do well there. It is also decision day on Dallas Keuchel, and I am betting he is in the Twins rotation by the weekend.

[Beast]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Sure it is.  But if you win a bad division you still get into the playoffs.  Everybody starts the playoffs with the same record. 

You also start the playoffs with the same players, coaches, and manager that you had during the regular season.

[USAFChief]

10 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Civale has been horse-bleep, and his good pitching stretches are more lucky pitching stretches.  They got a steal here, and if you don't think the Twins should have sold Maeda for that (because he's better than Civale at their bests), you're not seeing things right.

Mostly, though, two things will probably happen: the world will find a hole in Manzardo's swing that only the Rays can see now, and Civale will become 5x the pitcher he is now.  Because that's Tampa.  Or possibly not.  While I'm sure Cleveland struggles to evaluate hitting, they must think Civale's at his peak, and they have some cred there.

None of this is accurate. 

Civale is not horse-bleep. 

Maeda isn't worth the same. Regardless who you think is the better pitcher going forward (likely Civale), Civale comes with 2 more seasons of control. 

[USAFChief]

There's zero reason Sewald shouldn't be in the Twins pen today. Arizona got him cheap.

 

[farmerguychris]

9 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

The Central Division can now officially be called The Sh- Show....

With Chicago and Cleveland selling along with good 'ol KC and Detroit....

The Twins can sell and still accidentally win The Sh- Show... !

Yes - and we should sell.  Can still win 1 playoff game this year while getting something back on our expiring contracts instead of nothing at the end of the year.

[Whitey333]

Great comments by all.  I'm just going to throw this in.  The Twins are 30-39 against teams with 500 or better winning percentage.  They are not serious contenders.  They are frauds.  They purport to be contenders.  Yes for an embarrassingly weak A L Central.  ImO not much of an accomplishment.  They are what the are and have been for three years:  a mediocre team jn a mediocre division.  But all they have to do is hang in there because Cleveland has a tough schedule.  Go Twins!