Twins Gamble on Replacing Luis Arraez Is Proving Destructive

[Nash Walker]

In what was primarily deemed at the time as a "win" of a trade for the hometown nine, the Pablo López (plus two prospects) swap for Luis Arraez is creating sharp twangs of angst across Twins territory. The 26-year-old hitting maestro is heading to his second straight All-Star Game while the Twins continue to middle away into despair.

Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Every offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have specifically and aggressively targeted the areas that stopped them short of a run in the playoffs in the prior year. After the Twins hit a record number of home runs (307) and won 101 games in 2019, the front office made a run at Zach Wheeler to add a much-needed frontline starter. They lost the bidding to Philadelphia and instead flipped Brusdar Graterol in a trade for Kenta Maeda, who subsequently finished second for the American League Cy Young Award. They also added Josh Donaldson on a team-record free agent contract, shifting Miguel Sanó to first base to prevent more runs. 

The plan worked. The team pitched very well in the Covid-plagued 2020 campaign, riding Maeda, José Berríos, Randy Dobnak, and a stalwart bullpen to the playoffs. Jorge Polanco's inexcusable error in game two of the Wild Card Series prompted the next volcanic shift. The Twins signed Andrelton Simmons, moved Polanco to second base, and hoped they'd checked the last box. 

After a complete disaster in 2021, the Twins added a premium player in Carlos Correa, traded for Sonny Gray, and extended Byron Buxton, among many other moves. The rotation broke down throughout the summer as Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer predictably faded following stellar starts. Falvey and Levine noticed… to say the least. The Twins traded one of their best players, the reigning American League batting champion and a fan favorite, to add more quality depth to the rotation that failed them. 

It seems they went too far. Entering play Thursday, Arraez would lead all qualified Twins in batting average (duh), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and b-Wins Above Replacement. It was an extreme but reasonable move in the moment. The Twins couldn't rely on Maeda, Tyler Mahle, or Bailey Ober for a high volume of innings. In the case of Maeda and Mahle, that proved overwhelmingly valid. 

While López has pitched much better than his ERA suggests, the Twins misjudged the overall impact of losing Arraez. Fans have longed for a rotation loaded with playoff-caliber starters. It's finally here, but at what cost? Multiple things can be true. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been legitimately bad, keeping the Twins from consistency. José Miranda is at Triple-A after a horrendous start. Jorge Polanco has played only 30 games due to various leg injuries. Arraez can't make up for that lack of production. 

However, the Twins' spark plug brought immense energy and an elite ability to put bat to ball. This club is asleep at the wheel, aimlessly whiffing and whiffing en route to an MLB-record number of strikeouts. The argument that Arraez couldn't help much because the Twins wouldn't drive him in ignores Arraez as a run producer himself. Arraez would not only lead the Twins in RBI but also doubles. Don't get it twisted; they massively miss his bat, especially in a slew of spots where just a harmless fly ball to left or a grounder to second would do the trick. 

This offense is so one-dimensional, so prone to strikeouts, that the thought of adding back Luis Arraez is like seeing a glass of water after months in a scorching desert. Arraez is the anti-Twin in 2023, and it's painful, especially considering how likable Arraez has been since his debut in 2019. The Twins took a gamble they could make up for his loss, and so far it's been sobering. 

Several past moves are haunting the Twins in 2023. Time will tell, especially considering Pablo López is only 27 years old and under team control through 2027. The Twins may come out on top when all is said and done. For now, though, it's flopping ruinously in a year where the front office desperately needs results. 

 

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[LastOnePicked]

Solid write-up of a tough situation. Glad you're still covering the Twins.

Nash, you strike me as a pretty passionate fan but also a sober enough critic. What do you think - do you think this FO deserves just a bit more patience, or do you think it's time to push for a new direction?

[tony&rodney]

Nash, you have written so many good posts. The Lopez-Arraez trade and the 2023 season are wobbly right now and the rehashing of missing Arraez makes its way into the comments of virtually every post now for weeks. Are you calling for the removal of Falvey & Sons? There has to be a way to move on from past trades. If the decisions are indeed ruinous, which may be argued, then it is a call for the Pohlads to step in and correct course asap. I can see that discussion.

I have a ton of respect for those who write the articles and make the videos for Twins baseball and for Twins Daily. It just seems like Luis Arraez is omnipresent in so many ways with the Twins, yet he no longer plays for the Twins. The Twins chose to draft Kyle Gibson and did not pick Mike Trout in 2009. The Luis Arraez of 2023 does not play for the Twins. I miss him too. So I can watch him play for the Marlins via mlb.com. 

As a call for a new management for the Twins, the article makes sense. There are some beautiful, well constructed sentences in the post and I always click on a Nash Walker article right away. Respectfully, I'm just thinking that Twins Daily needs a recess from discussing the trade of Luis Arraez. I'm more concerned that the Twins are currently linked by some (Keith Law) to choosing a player with the #5 pick in the upcoming player draft who is generally ranked closer to #20 as a baseball talent. 

[Nash Walker]

42 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Solid write-up of a tough situation. Glad you're still covering the Twins.

Nash, you strike me as a pretty passionate fan but also a sober enough critic. What do you think - do you think this FO deserves just a bit more patience, or do you think it's time to push for a new direction?

Appreciate you reading. My stance is pretty clear. If they don't end the postseason losing streak in 2023, it's time for a change. 

[Nash Walker]

42 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Nash, you have written so many good posts. The Lopez-Arraez trade and the 2023 season are wobbly right now and the rehashing of missing Arraez makes its way into the comments of virtually every post now for weeks. Are you calling for the removal of Falvey & Sons? There has to be a way to move on from past trades. If the decisions are indeed ruinous, which may be argued, then it is a call for the Pohlads to step in and correct course asap. I can see that discussion.

I have a ton of respect for those who write the articles and make the videos for Twins baseball and for Twins Daily. It just seems like Luis Arraez is omnipresent in so many ways with the Twins, yet he no longer plays for the Twins. The Twins chose to draft Kyle Gibson and did not pick Mike Trout in 2009. The Luis Arraez of 2023 does not play for the Twins. I miss him too. So I can watch him play for the Marlins via mlb.com. 

As a call for a new management for the Twins, the article makes sense. There are some beautiful, well constructed sentences in the post and I always click on a Nash Walker article right away. Respectfully, I'm just thinking that Twins Daily needs a recess from discussing the trade of Luis Arraez. I'm more concerned that the Twins are currently linked by some (Keith Law) to choosing a player with the #5 pick in the upcoming player draft who is generally ranked closer to #20 as a baseball talent. 

I had this same thought for sure. I am sick of thinking about it too! I wish it wasn't so present. I can't shake the feeling when I watch the Twins every day. 

[Mike Sixel]

How many games did they win last year with him?

[Danchat]

It seemed like Julien was the logical Arraez replacement, as a minor league OBP machine who also who might not have a defensive home at any position - and so far he's been solid at the plate, but dismal defensively at 2B.

[Blyleven2011]

The fan favorite  (major leaguer ) , Arraez ...

Arraez was the spark the twins needed and he delivered  , he always seemed to be on base ...

He played anywhere they asked him to , he has a real passion for the game  ...

I have this feeling  that the twins and miami will meet in the world series and arraez will get the game winning hit in the bottom of the ninth in game seven of the world series  ...

It could happen ...

The trade was good but I would have liked to have kept arraez as a proven hitter ( not a bunch of homers ) but he hits and hits and hits , bat control ...

Kepler and Julian ,  larnach or wallner could have gotten it done in the trade ...

The Marlins needed hitters and the twins needed pitching  ...

It's history as sad as it is , he is now a fan favorite in Miami ...

[pierre75275]

If the Twins had Arraez instead of Pablo Lopez, who takes the starts that Lopez currently has gotten?

 

Varland? Don't get me wrong, I love the watching him pitch, but he was demoted for a reason.

Woods-richerdson? Given his troubles thus far in AAA, pry not.

BH? He has been okay, so maybe...

 

I'm not so sure the Twins are better off with Arreaz vs. Lopez. I love watching Arraez play baseball but the Twins offense is so bad at this point they are unwatchable and I am not convinced Arraez hitting two singles a game (as awesome and fun as it is to watch) really moves the needle that much.

[Doctor Wu]

1 hour ago, pierre75275 said:

If the Twins had Arraez instead of Pablo Lopez, who takes the starts that Lopez currently has gotten?

 

Varland? Don't get me wrong, I love the watching him pitch, but he was demoted for a reason.

Woods-richerdson? Given his troubles thus far in AAA, pry not.

BH? He has been okay, so maybe...

 

I'm not so sure the Twins are better off with Arreaz vs. Lopez. I love watching Arraez play baseball but the Twins offense is so bad at this point they are unwatchable and I am not convinced Arraez hitting two singles a game (as awesome and fun as it is to watch) really moves the needle that much.

I agree completely. Hey, we all love Arraez and many here wish he was still with the Twins, Plus, he's having a season for the ages, while our beloved Twins seem determined to flounder in a weak Central division. I understand people wishing Arraez was still with the Twins. But we needed better starting pitching and so far Lopez has been what we needed in the rotation. As great as Arraez has been this year, questions still remain about his long-term health and ability to play in the infield. He'll probably end up being as good as Rod Carew was, but thinking back, those old Twins teams didn't have many post-season appearances either. 

[Karbo]

6 hours ago, Danchat said:

It seemed like Julien was the logical Arraez replacement, as a minor league OBP machine who also who might not have a defensive home at any position - and so far he's been solid at the plate, but dismal defensively at 2B.

Julian needs to be moved to 1st base IMO.

[mikelink45]

Thanks for the painful reconstruction of a trade I hated.  Lopez needs a drastic turn around to make us feel better.

But as much as we miss his bat.  His attitude is what this team needs.  Sometimes an enthusiastic and positive player has more value than their bat and glove - 'remember the turtle!' 

No one has that fun factor (no stats to support this) and the team just goes on with business.

[TwinsDr2021]

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Kepler and Julian ,  larnach or wallner could have gotten it done in the trade ...

 

No chance that Kepler and one of those others would have gotten Lopez.

Age current accomplishments prior to this year

Wallner 25 years old and 200 days - 133 major league at bats 44 strike outs.

Larnach 26 years old 124 days - 420 major league at bats sub .700 OPS and injured multiple times.

Julien 24 years old 61 days - AA player

Arraez 26 years old 82 days (All Star, 13th in MVP voting, Batting Champ, Silver Slugger) and 4 years of proven major league at bats. 

There is a reason they wanted Arraez and not those other 3, because he good and proven and the others are older and haven proven anything. Pablo Lopez is 27 years old 115 days that is 90 older than Ryan and younger than Ober, that is 1 year and 9 month older than Varland.

MN Twins fans can go on believing prospects age doesn't matter and Covid year this and that, But it does and teams aren't going to trade a young guy for unproven guys basically there same age.  Did the Twins trade Berrios for mid 20's unproven players? Nope, they traded for 22 year old Martin and a 20 year old SWR.

[Mark G]

As much as I agree with all of the above, there is also a major factor in trades I do not see above:  number of years of control.  A Julien or Wallner would have many years of team control, as well as a huge potential.  We can't prove a negative, so we will probably never know what sort of package Miami might have been willing to take, but never underestimate the draw of young players with a large upside AND a lot of years of control.  By the way, that includes cost control, as the young players are playing for the minimum, or close to it.  Just another factor to consider.  Good post; many truths.  

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

But we needed better starting pitching and so far Lopez has been what we needed in the rotation.

I was saddened to see Arraez go but didn't mind knowing how badly the Twins needed pitching. I for one can't object in hindsight. I never could have anticipated Arraez doing his best Ted Williams impression.

I might though, have anticipated the Twins doing their best collective takeoff of Miguel Sano. But then again, I don't get paid the big bucks for doing so unlike our Northeastern/PA college educated dual FO lads.

<Audible sigh>.

[insagt1]

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many games did they win last year with him?

Come on...snarky comments like that (whether intended or not) are beneath your normal solid takes. The article was well written and thoughtful. And yeah, maybe we all need a deep breath and some air cleansing regarding the trade.

What we also need is some change in direction. There are a few players who either need to be moved, some to be called up and perhaps some to be sat down for a spell. If Twins FO is serious about winning this year they just can't stay the course anymore. Fans justifiably are frustrated. How many post season GAMES have the Twins lost in a row? Just getting there is not enough anymore.

[TwinsDr2021]

10 minutes ago, Mark G said:

As much as I agree with all of the above, there is also a major factor in trades I do not see above:  number of years of control.  A Julien or Wallner would have many years of team control, as well as a huge potential. 

If Julien and Wallner were doing what the have been doing and currently doing and were age 21 and22 or even 22 and 23 that and another minor league player would probably have gotten the deal done. The odds are not in Wallner's favor of being a future all star, they are a bit better for Julien, compare that to Arraez and it is a no brainer why Wallner, Larnach and Julie still wear Twins uniforms and Arraez does not.

[Brian Kingfield]

As painful as it is to imagine how Arraez could be helping this offense right now, it’s easier for me to imagine whatever sickness ails this offense spreading to Arraez as well. There could be a parallel universe where he stays with the Twins and hits a dry spell in 2023.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

No chance that Kepler and one of those others would have gotten Lopez.

Age current accomplishments prior to this year

Wallner 25 years old and 200 days - 133 major league at bats 44 strike outs.

Larnach 26 years old 124 days - 420 major league at bats sub .700 OPS and injured multiple times.

Julien 24 years old 61 days - AA player

Arraez 26 years old 82 days (All Star, 13th in MVP voting, Batting Champ, Silver Slugger) and 4 years of proven major league at bats. 

There is a reason they wanted Arraez and not those other 3, because he good and proven and the others are older and haven proven anything. Pablo Lopez is 27 years old 115 days that is 90 older than Ryan and younger than Ober, that is 1 year and 9 month older than Varland.

MN Twins fans can go on believing prospects age doesn't matter and Covid year this and that, But it does and teams aren't going to trade a young guy for unproven guys basically there same age.  Did the Twins trade Berrios for mid 20's unproven players? Nope, they traded for 22 year old Martin and a 20 year old SWR.

I guess I should have put MAYBE  into the sentence  ...

Maybe could have gotten it done ...

[Dman]

If the Twins had any semblance of offense I don't think it would be as painful to watch Arraez playing so well.  This K prone, pitch chasing, unclutch with bases loaded, bunch of hitters makes you miss a guy that buckles down in the clutch and delivers more often than not.  We all loved him but it seemed like someone needed to move and we needed another starter.  So here we are.

As others have said while he was always a difference maker we didn't win with him and his extra few hits weren't likely to change much this season either.  Still the pain is real as this team feels like they would K if the pitcher used a softball.  It would be nice to watch a professional hitter and Arraez is one of the best.  He is gone now though and the FO needs to find a way to make this team better.  Hopefully they trade some guys at the deadline and see what they have in the young guys because this team as constructed stinks.

[Whitey333]

Great article as always.  We miss Aaraez enthusiasm and positive attitude.  We don't have much of that with the current list of zombies on the 26 man.  Don't get me wrong.  Lopez is a decent pitcher.  He won't win any Cy Young awards.  He is and has been a serviceable 500 pitcher.  It's always tough to trade an everyday player and batting champion and Allstar for a guy that will only play once a week.  Watching areas it appears he's having fun.  There is no fun in Twinsville currently.

[Gatormandd]

I think the deals with the Reds (check out the "post 23 season" when Gray and Mahle are probably not with the team, and Steer is also the kind of guy who could fix some of our offensive issues, with Encarncion-Strand looking amazing in AAA.  Add to that Petty is looking fine, and don't even get me started on gambling on a failed SP with a hot half season in relief (Lopez), when at worse Cano will prove better and Povich probably will as well.  By comparison, the Arraez deal (especially with Salas included) really doesn't look that bad, it always hurts to lose a talent, but like others mentioned, there's no real answer if Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Miranda, Kepler et al aren't producing, whether to injury, age, or whatever.  It just sucks, but I'd roast the FO over the Cincy and Bal deals more than the Arraez deal To be fair, I'll call the Gray deal OK, but it will hurt more than the Arraez deal long term, and the Mahle deal was just a disaster.

 

[Mark G]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If Julien and Wallner were doing what the have been doing and currently doing and were age 21 and22 or even 22 and 23 that and another minor league player would probably have gotten the deal done. The odds are not in Wallner's favor of being a future all star, they are a bit better for Julien, compare that to Arraez and it is a no brainer why Wallner, Larnach and Julie still wear Twins uniforms and Arraez does not.

Again, I can't prove a negative, so all I can do is speculate, which is pointless, but fun. 🤭

It all boils down, to me at least, age vs the combination of cost and team control.  LA is in his arbitration years, with the next 2 being his last before free agency.  And they will be expensive years, as he is already at the 6 mil point and that will rise.  He is also 26, with his nagging calling card supposedly troublesome knees.  Now Miami has never been a team to explode its payroll, so the combination of all of the above may have been a slow down if we had put together the right package of players either pretty much major league ready and/or pretty close to being ready.  Cheap, more years of team control, and more players total may have moved the needle.  Age alone would not have killed a deal with a team heavy in pitching and low on bats.  Again, more speculation on my part, but I think we chose to move LA because he had the most value at that moment, and we had no place to put both him and the infielders coming up through the system.  And with the financial commitments we were making to CC and BB we might have thought the expense that was coming down the pike with LA might not be doable to keep all 3.  I still believe that cost is why we let Urshella walk away when he was still a very skilled player, and the hope that Miranda was ready to take his place; Miranda, who was much cheaper and had team control.  Keeping in mind, also, that the trade for Lopez only became worth it when we extended him.  At a cost, to be sure.  So money, years of team control, the number of players and the positions they play, all may have played a role in a variety of trade scenarios between the two clubs.  I, personally, wish we had kept LA, but the FO stopped taking my calls some time back, so they never got the message.  Oh well, their loss.  😉

[tony&rodney]

9 hours ago, Nash Walker said:

My stance is pretty clear. If they don't end the postseason losing streak in 2023, it's time for a change. 

Agree 100% with this statement.

Falvey & Sons are on the clock.

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many games did they win last year with him?

How many games did the Angels win last year? They obviously should have traded Shohei Ohtani. 

[Woof Bronzer]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many games did they win last year with him?

So it's not the roster?

How much have the Angels won during Trout's career?  He must not be a good player either.  

The idea that Arraez would not be helping this team is absolutely bizarre.  

[Mike Sixel]

48 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

How many games did the Angels win last year? They obviously should have traded Shohei Ohtani. 

My point remains the same. There are posts here that trading him was the doom of the season. It's not one guy. Also, who is pitching instead of Lopez?

It would be great to have him and Lopez..... But that wasn't an option. 

[Mike Sixel]

46 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

So it's not the roster?

How much have the Angels won during Trout's career?  He must not be a good player either.  

The idea that Arraez would not be helping this team is absolutely bizarre.  

Of course, that's not what I said...  It's a team game. It would be great to have him, but then no idea who pitches....

[HoskenPowell]

3 hours ago, davidborton said:

I was saddened to see Arraez go but didn't mind knowing how badly the Twins needed pitching. I for one can't object in hindsight. I never could have anticipated Arraez doing his best Ted Williams impression.

I might though, have anticipated the Twins doing their best collective takeoff of Miguel Sano. But then again, I don't get paid the big bucks for doing so unlike our Northeastern/PA college educated dual FO lads.

<Audible sigh>.

Ted Williams impression????   Ted could and DID hit for power.  Arraez could play for 30 years and he will end up 400 hr's behind Ted.  LIFETIME .344 hitter.  Arraez has YET to hit over 344 in a year yet.   It's a long season and odds are he slows way down in the dog days of summer with his balky knees.

[USAFChief]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

My point remains the same. There are posts here that trading him was the doom of the season. It's not one guy. Also, who is pitching instead of Lopez?

It would be great to have him and Lopez..... But that wasn't an option. 

You don't have a point. 

That's the point. 

Last year's record is irrelevant to whether or not Luis Arraez would help the 2023 team.