Twins Gamble on Replacing Luis Arraez Is Proving Destructive

Nash, you have written so many good posts. The Lopez-Arraez trade and the 2023 season are wobbly right now and the rehashing of missing Arraez makes its way into the comments of virtually every post now for weeks. Are you calling for the removal of Falvey & Sons? There has to be a way to move on from past trades. If the decisions are indeed ruinous, which may be argued, then it is a call for the Pohlads to step in and correct course asap. I can see that discussion.

I have a ton of respect for those who write the articles and make the videos for Twins baseball and for Twins Daily. It just seems like Luis Arraez is omnipresent in so many ways with the Twins, yet he no longer plays for the Twins. The Twins chose to draft Kyle Gibson and did not pick Mike Trout in 2009. The Luis Arraez of 2023 does not play for the Twins. I miss him too. So I can watch him play for the Marlins via mlb.com. 

As a call for a new management for the Twins, the article makes sense. There are some beautiful, well constructed sentences in the post and I always click on a Nash Walker article right away. Respectfully, I'm just thinking that Twins Daily needs a recess from discussing the trade of Luis Arraez. I'm more concerned that the Twins are currently linked by some (Keith Law) to choosing a player with the #5 pick in the upcoming player draft who is generally ranked closer to #20 as a baseball talent. 

The fan favorite  (major leaguer ) , Arraez ...

Arraez was the spark the twins needed and he delivered  , he always seemed to be on base ...

He played anywhere they asked him to , he has a real passion for the game  ...

I have this feeling  that the twins and miami will meet in the world series and arraez will get the game winning hit in the bottom of the ninth in game seven of the world series  ...

It could happen ...

The trade was good but I would have liked to have kept arraez as a proven hitter ( not a bunch of homers ) but he hits and hits and hits , bat control ...

Kepler and Julian ,  larnach or wallner could have gotten it done in the trade ...

The Marlins needed hitters and the twins needed pitching  ...

It's history as sad as it is , he is now a fan favorite in Miami ...

If the Twins had Arraez instead of Pablo Lopez, who takes the starts that Lopez currently has gotten?

Varland? Don't get me wrong, I love the watching him pitch, but he was demoted for a reason.

Woods-richerdson? Given his troubles thus far in AAA, pry not.

BH? He has been okay, so maybe...

I'm not so sure the Twins are better off with Arreaz vs. Lopez. I love watching Arraez play baseball but the Twins offense is so bad at this point they are unwatchable and I am not convinced Arraez hitting two singles a game (as awesome and fun as it is to watch) really moves the needle that much.

1 hour ago, pierre75275 said:

If the Twins had Arraez instead of Pablo Lopez, who takes the starts that Lopez currently has gotten?

 

Varland? Don't get me wrong, I love the watching him pitch, but he was demoted for a reason.

Woods-richerdson? Given his troubles thus far in AAA, pry not.

BH? He has been okay, so maybe...

 

I'm not so sure the Twins are better off with Arreaz vs. Lopez. I love watching Arraez play baseball but the Twins offense is so bad at this point they are unwatchable and I am not convinced Arraez hitting two singles a game (as awesome and fun as it is to watch) really moves the needle that much.

I agree completely. Hey, we all love Arraez and many here wish he was still with the Twins, Plus, he's having a season for the ages, while our beloved Twins seem determined to flounder in a weak Central division. I understand people wishing Arraez was still with the Twins. But we needed better starting pitching and so far Lopez has been what we needed in the rotation. As great as Arraez has been this year, questions still remain about his long-term health and ability to play in the infield. He'll probably end up being as good as Rod Carew was, but thinking back, those old Twins teams didn't have many post-season appearances either. 

5 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Kepler and Julian ,  larnach or wallner could have gotten it done in the trade ...

 

No chance that Kepler and one of those others would have gotten Lopez.

Age current accomplishments prior to this year

Wallner 25 years old and 200 days - 133 major league at bats 44 strike outs.

Larnach 26 years old 124 days - 420 major league at bats sub .700 OPS and injured multiple times.

Julien 24 years old 61 days - AA player

Arraez 26 years old 82 days (All Star, 13th in MVP voting, Batting Champ, Silver Slugger) and 4 years of proven major league at bats. 

There is a reason they wanted Arraez and not those other 3, because he good and proven and the others are older and haven proven anything. Pablo Lopez is 27 years old 115 days that is 90 older than Ryan and younger than Ober, that is 1 year and 9 month older than Varland.

MN Twins fans can go on believing prospects age doesn't matter and Covid year this and that, But it does and teams aren't going to trade a young guy for unproven guys basically there same age.  Did the Twins trade Berrios for mid 20's unproven players? Nope, they traded for 22 year old Martin and a 20 year old SWR.

As much as I agree with all of the above, there is also a major factor in trades I do not see above:  number of years of control.  A Julien or Wallner would have many years of team control, as well as a huge potential.  We can't prove a negative, so we will probably never know what sort of package Miami might have been willing to take, but never underestimate the draw of young players with a large upside AND a lot of years of control.  By the way, that includes cost control, as the young players are playing for the minimum, or close to it.  Just another factor to consider.  Good post; many truths.  

7 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many games did they win last year with him?

Come on...snarky comments like that (whether intended or not) are beneath your normal solid takes. The article was well written and thoughtful. And yeah, maybe we all need a deep breath and some air cleansing regarding the trade.

What we also need is some change in direction. There are a few players who either need to be moved, some to be called up and perhaps some to be sat down for a spell. If Twins FO is serious about winning this year they just can't stay the course anymore. Fans justifiably are frustrated. How many post season GAMES have the Twins lost in a row? Just getting there is not enough anymore.

10 minutes ago, Mark G said:

As much as I agree with all of the above, there is also a major factor in trades I do not see above:  number of years of control.  A Julien or Wallner would have many years of team control, as well as a huge potential. 

If Julien and Wallner were doing what the have been doing and currently doing and were age 21 and22 or even 22 and 23 that and another minor league player would probably have gotten the deal done. The odds are not in Wallner's favor of being a future all star, they are a bit better for Julien, compare that to Arraez and it is a no brainer why Wallner, Larnach and Julie still wear Twins uniforms and Arraez does not.

As painful as it is to imagine how Arraez could be helping this offense right now, it’s easier for me to imagine whatever sickness ails this offense spreading to Arraez as well. There could be a parallel universe where he stays with the Twins and hits a dry spell in 2023.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

No chance that Kepler and one of those others would have gotten Lopez.

Age current accomplishments prior to this year

Wallner 25 years old and 200 days - 133 major league at bats 44 strike outs.

Larnach 26 years old 124 days - 420 major league at bats sub .700 OPS and injured multiple times.

Julien 24 years old 61 days - AA player

Arraez 26 years old 82 days (All Star, 13th in MVP voting, Batting Champ, Silver Slugger) and 4 years of proven major league at bats. 

There is a reason they wanted Arraez and not those other 3, because he good and proven and the others are older and haven proven anything. Pablo Lopez is 27 years old 115 days that is 90 older than Ryan and younger than Ober, that is 1 year and 9 month older than Varland.

MN Twins fans can go on believing prospects age doesn't matter and Covid year this and that, But it does and teams aren't going to trade a young guy for unproven guys basically there same age.  Did the Twins trade Berrios for mid 20's unproven players? Nope, they traded for 22 year old Martin and a 20 year old SWR.

I guess I should have put MAYBE  into the sentence  ...

Maybe could have gotten it done ...

Great article as always.  We miss Aaraez enthusiasm and positive attitude.  We don't have much of that with the current list of zombies on the 26 man.  Don't get me wrong.  Lopez is a decent pitcher.  He won't win any Cy Young awards.  He is and has been a serviceable 500 pitcher.  It's always tough to trade an everyday player and batting champion and Allstar for a guy that will only play once a week.  Watching areas it appears he's having fun.  There is no fun in Twinsville currently.

I think the deals with the Reds (check out the "post 23 season" when Gray and Mahle are probably not with the team, and Steer is also the kind of guy who could fix some of our offensive issues, with Encarncion-Strand looking amazing in AAA.  Add to that Petty is looking fine, and don't even get me started on gambling on a failed SP with a hot half season in relief (Lopez), when at worse Cano will prove better and Povich probably will as well.  By comparison, the Arraez deal (especially with Salas included) really doesn't look that bad, it always hurts to lose a talent, but like others mentioned, there's no real answer if Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Miranda, Kepler et al aren't producing, whether to injury, age, or whatever.  It just sucks, but I'd roast the FO over the Cincy and Bal deals more than the Arraez deal To be fair, I'll call the Gray deal OK, but it will hurt more than the Arraez deal long term, and the Mahle deal was just a disaster.

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If Julien and Wallner were doing what the have been doing and currently doing and were age 21 and22 or even 22 and 23 that and another minor league player would probably have gotten the deal done. The odds are not in Wallner's favor of being a future all star, they are a bit better for Julien, compare that to Arraez and it is a no brainer why Wallner, Larnach and Julie still wear Twins uniforms and Arraez does not.

Again, I can't prove a negative, so all I can do is speculate, which is pointless, but fun. 🤭

It all boils down, to me at least, age vs the combination of cost and team control.  LA is in his arbitration years, with the next 2 being his last before free agency.  And they will be expensive years, as he is already at the 6 mil point and that will rise.  He is also 26, with his nagging calling card supposedly troublesome knees.  Now Miami has never been a team to explode its payroll, so the combination of all of the above may have been a slow down if we had put together the right package of players either pretty much major league ready and/or pretty close to being ready.  Cheap, more years of team control, and more players total may have moved the needle.  Age alone would not have killed a deal with a team heavy in pitching and low on bats.  Again, more speculation on my part, but I think we chose to move LA because he had the most value at that moment, and we had no place to put both him and the infielders coming up through the system.  And with the financial commitments we were making to CC and BB we might have thought the expense that was coming down the pike with LA might not be doable to keep all 3.  I still believe that cost is why we let Urshella walk away when he was still a very skilled player, and the hope that Miranda was ready to take his place; Miranda, who was much cheaper and had team control.  Keeping in mind, also, that the trade for Lopez only became worth it when we extended him.  At a cost, to be sure.  So money, years of team control, the number of players and the positions they play, all may have played a role in a variety of trade scenarios between the two clubs.  I, personally, wish we had kept LA, but the FO stopped taking my calls some time back, so they never got the message.  Oh well, their loss.  😉

9 hours ago, Nash Walker said:

My stance is pretty clear. If they don't end the postseason losing streak in 2023, it's time for a change. 

Agree 100% with this statement.

Falvey & Sons are on the clock.

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How many games did they win last year with him?

So it's not the roster?

How much have the Angels won during Trout's career?  He must not be a good player either.  

The idea that Arraez would not be helping this team is absolutely bizarre.  

3 hours ago, davidborton said:

I was saddened to see Arraez go but didn't mind knowing how badly the Twins needed pitching. I for one can't object in hindsight. I never could have anticipated Arraez doing his best Ted Williams impression.

I might though, have anticipated the Twins doing their best collective takeoff of Miguel Sano. But then again, I don't get paid the big bucks for doing so unlike our Northeastern/PA college educated dual FO lads.

<Audible sigh>.

Ted Williams impression????   Ted could and DID hit for power.  Arraez could play for 30 years and he will end up 400 hr's behind Ted.  LIFETIME .344 hitter.  Arraez has YET to hit over 344 in a year yet.   It's a long season and odds are he slows way down in the dog days of summer with his balky knees.