How Joe Ryan Could Have More Value Than Tarik Skubal at the MLB Trade Deadline

With the Detroit Tigers sitting near the bottom of the American League standings, it has become increasingly clear that Tarik Skubal will be one of the biggest names available before the August 4th MLB Trade Deadline.

The two-time American League Cy Young Award winner has already become the subject of countless trade rumors. National outlets have spent weeks projecting landing spots, debating prospect packages, and speculating about which contenders will ultimately win the bidding war for one of baseball's best pitchers.

Skubal's recent stint on the injured list has done little to slow the conversation. Expectations are that he will make a rehab appearance next week and return to the Tigers' rotation shortly thereafter. That should leave plenty of time for contenders to evaluate him before the deadline arrives.

Trade Suitors for Skubal (and Ryan?)    

Recently, The Athletic identified seven potential suitors for Skubal, including the Dodgers, Rays, Cubs, Yankees, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays. That list illustrates exactly how strong the market could be for a frontline starter. It also creates an interesting opportunity for the Minnesota Twins.

While Skubal is expected to headline the pitching market, Joe Ryan may be the best starting pitcher available after him. If one club ultimately lands Skubal, there will be several disappointed contenders left searching for an ace-level arm. Those teams could quickly pivot their attention toward Minnesota and Ryan.

In some ways, Ryan's market could become directly tied to Skubal's. Every team involved in the Skubal sweepstakes will likely have a prospect package prepared. Once Skubal comes off the board, those same organizations could redirect their resources toward Ryan. A bidding war that starts with Detroit could easily spill over into Minnesota.

Joe Ryan's Trade Value

There is even a legitimate argument that Ryan could generate a stronger return than Skubal. That statement might seem surprising given Skubal's accomplishments. He owns two Cy Young Awards and has established himself as one of the most dominant starters in baseball. However, trade value is about more than talent.

Control matters. Skubal is scheduled to become a free agent after the season and will be looking for one of the largest contracts in baseball history when he hits the open market. Any acquiring team would be paying a premium for roughly two months of regular season starts and a potential postseason run. Ryan, meanwhile, remains under team control through the 2027 season via arbitration.

That extra year is significant. Ryan will earn a raise through arbitration, but his salary will remain far below what an ace-level starter would command on the open market. Teams place enormous value on cost certainty, particularly with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement looming this winter. If baseball moves toward a salary cap and floor system, affordable impact players could become even more valuable.

Why the Twins Would Trade Ryan

The Twins have hovered around the .500 mark for much of the season and remain within striking distance of a playoff berth. However, that positioning says as much about the state of the American League as it does about Minnesota's performance.

The reality is that the Twins have struggled to establish themselves as a true contender. That reality is what makes Ryan such an intriguing trade candidate. At 30 years old, Ryan is pitching some of the best baseball of his career. Through his first 13 starts (70 1/3 innings), he posted a career-best 136 ERA+ and 2.76 FIP with 79 strikeouts and only 14 walks.

Those numbers follow a breakout 2025 campaign in which Ryan earned his first All-Star selection. After spending multiple seasons on the fringe of All-Star consideration, he finally received the recognition he deserved. He finished last season with a 125 ERA+ and 194 strikeouts across 171 innings while cementing himself as one of the American League's most reliable starters.

For a contender seeking rotation help, Ryan checks nearly every box. He misses bats, limits walks, stays relatively healthy, and comes with an additional year of control. That combination is rare.

The Twins may ultimately decide to keep Ryan and continue their pursuit of a postseason spot. There is certainly an argument for retaining one of the organization's best players. There is also an opportunity for the Twins to extend Ryan so they could get closer to the proposed MLB salary floor. But if Minnesota chooses to sell, Detroit's decision on Skubal could have a major impact on the Twins' return package.

The first domino on the pitching market is likely Skubal. Once it falls, Ryan could become the most coveted starter available. And if enough teams are left empty-handed after missing out on Detroit's ace, Minnesota may discover that Ryan's market is every bit as strong as Skubal's. It becomes a supply-and-demand situation.

That possibility is exactly why the Twins should be paying close attention to what happens in Detroit over the next several weeks.

Can Ryan get a larger trade package than Skubal? Leave a comment and start the discussion.