Would the Twins Make a Shakeup at Hitting Coach?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins offense has been mostly miserable this year, and it's not showing signs of improvement as key young hitters get shipped out to work on their game in the minors.

Not a great sign for the relatively inexperienced and unaccomplished individual currently serving in the hitting coach role. Is David Popkins on the hot seat?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Normally, I would say it is way too soon to viably have this conversation, knowing the tendencies of this Twins front office and baseball operation. They tend to not make rash, reactive decisions. Firing the hitting coach, who was handpicked by this same regime only 18 months ago? That would certainly qualify.

However, there are a few different factors in play here that, from my view, at least raise this possibility as a somewhat realistic one. For example:

David Popkins doesn't have a much of a track record to fall back on.

Much like they did with Wes Johnson when they plucked him out of college (or Pete Maki when they elevated from from an analyst role, for that matter), the Twins based their evaluation of Popkins more on projection and potential than concrete proven experience. 

When the Twins hired him after the 2021 season to replace Edgar Varela, Popkins had been the hitting coach for Los Angeles' Single-A team. That was his highest level of coaching experience. Popkins is only 33 years old and frankly there seems to be a reasonable chance he's in over his head, based on the evidence.

The offense did not perform particularly well last year, in his first season on the job, but that was pretty easy to excuse amid the onslaught of injuries. There were some decent signs for Popkins, such as the improvements certain hitters made during the season, and the (related) positive reviews he was getting from players.

This year, it's a very different story so far.

There aren't many excuses for the ongoing struggles of the offense.

No one could reasonably fault Popkins for failing to elevate an absolutely ravaged lineup in the second half of last season. The greatest hitting coach in baseball history isn't going to weaponize an outfield comprising Mark Contreras, Gilberto Celestino and Jake Cave.

This year, however, the Twins have been quite healthy – at least in terms of keeping players on the field. When you've got a batting order filled with established quality hitters who are all getting lost in these ongoing funks, failing to find answers or step to the plate with confident plans, it doesn't reflect well on the guy charged with guiding them through it. 

This is especially striking in a few specific cases.

Young talented hitters are getting completely overwhelmed.

To be clear, I'm writing this article from the standpoint that Popkins could be on the hot seat, not that I necessarily think he should be. But this is probably the biggest factor that would compel me to consider it a valid course of action. 

Seeing Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and Nick Gordon all just completely fall flat on their faces has been really tough to watch. Developing these kinds of emergent MLB-ready bats – helping them navigate challenges and combat adjustments that come along with the sport's harshest transition – strikes me as one of the most vital responsibilities of a hitting coach. Based on results, it's hard to see how Popkins could be faring worse in this regard. 

In many of these cases, there are seemingly clear flaws holding these hitters back, be it Larnach's susceptibility to offspeed pitching or Miranda's hitchy swing that beckons opponents to blow him away with high fastballs. 

 

I'm not saying these are easy things to fix, but ... they're not getting fixed. At all. None of the issues plaguing hitters throughout the lineup seem to be getting addressed in a meaningful way. And while it's still early in the season, it's not THAT early. We're coming up on the quarter-mark, and ...

This team has high expectations and heavy pressure to perform.

I perceived the past offseason as an emphatic statement from Twins ownership and executives: We're going to pump money into this franchise – ambitious rebranding, ballpark enhancements, Correa – now we better see some results that make a clear impact on the fanbase and revenue.

So far the crowds have been fairly sparse at Target Field, owing partially to cool spring weather but also to a product that is failing to energize and erase lingering skepticism from last year. The Twins are leading a hideously bad AL Central and hanging above .500, sure, but the bar is higher than that. It needs to be. And right now this underperforming offense is the clear and undeniable culprit in keeping them short of it, as the pitching staff continues to go above and beyond.

Now that Miranda's been sent out, there aren't really any remaining roster changes to be made at the moment. The Twins' lineup kind of is what it is for the time being. The question is whether they'll stick with the status quo or seek to shake things up and bring in a new voice. 

That would beg the question of "who," which of course is really the burning question here. Finding a new coach at this point of the season is not easy, though I suspect they have some candidates they like internally. 

Moving on from Popkins would not necessarily be an admission that the Twins were wrong to believe in him, but perhaps that they were a little early on him. There is risk attached to the upside of targeting up-and-comers and pushing them right into the big chair (e.g. Wes Johnson). Popkins is one of the youngest hitting coaches in baseball.

He hasn't had a whole lot of time to establish himself and find his footing. In some ways it feels very unfair that this discussion is even taking place. But it feels like a pivotal time in the Twins' high-stakes season: ascend to the top tier or trudge toward mediocrity. Much is on the line and things are trending badly. Right now Popkins is a simple, semi-credible scapegoat, which puts him at risk.

Such is life with the most volatile job in baseball.

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[Craig Arko]

Maybe; who with? They’d have to win everybody’s trust pretty quickly.

Cuddyer?

[Cory Engelhardt]

Isn't it kind of set up as a collaborative thing too, like how it is on the pitching side?

I can't for the life of me see an outsider being hired in-season. 

And if it is an internal hire that takes over, why wasn't that person chosen first?

 

[Linus]

I have no idea if the guy is a good coach or not. I don’t think he is the problem. This FO assembled a one dimensional lineup that was always going to be feast or famine regardless of coaching. Plodding players with way too much swing and miss. Here is a fun little thought: examine the traditional offensive positions which are first and third base along with left and right field. Anybody still confused why we can’t score any runs?

[Dman]

I'm not ready to give up on him just yet but it feels like a lot of hitters have been swinging outside the zone and struggling with just basic contact.  You would like to think he should have some answers there.  I would wait longer as the weather is warming up hopefully the bats do the same.

[HokieRif]

Yes.  They need to shakeup the staff. If changes are not or wont be made by Rocco then his time here should be over.

[chpettit19]

There were multiple articles at the start of the season about the work Popkins did with Correa on his swing last year, the time he spent with Gallo over the offseason, and how the players really liked his ability to adapt to each individual player, and their specific body movements. I don't know near enough about the swing mechanics of these guys to know if it's a swing problem, or "simply" an approach problem that appears pretty clear to me, and I think many fans.

The Twins have multiple hitting coaches. I don't know what all their specific roles are, and I'm generally against calling for people to lose their jobs, although I understand being a coach at the top level of any sport is typically a very short lived situation, unless you're great. From the outside, Popkins would seem to be the most likely scapegoat if the offense doesn't figure things out quickly. Is the internal expectation that Popkins is "just" the swing mechanics guy while other coaches are the approach guys? Is Popkins pushing for a different approach, but the players just don't agree? Is he pushing for a different approach, and the players just aren't good enough to execute it? Very hard, if not impossible, to judge any of that from the outside. But it likely doesn't matter as eventually it just comes down to the lineup performing or not. And for the last week+ it has been resoundingly not performing.

I think, in general, the impact of coaches/managers in baseball is overstated. People are on these boards constantly asking for James Rowson to come back despite the teams he's been with since he left being the 2 worst scoring teams in baseball (Miami and Detroit). Hitting coaches aren't some magical wizards who can make bad hitters suddenly be good hitters. It's so hard to judge what's simply talent limitations, and what's coaching. But things are bad right now, and the expectations from the owners this season absolutely need to be a dominance of a terrible division, and playoff wins. I don't know if that's what the Pohlads are thinking, but it's what the fan base is thinking. And everyone from coaches to the FO should all be on the hot seat this year. It's make or break time, and they've been breaking for a week. They should all be feeling the pressure at this point.

Edit to add: In fairness to Popkins, and the players, the Twins did score 46 runs in 8 games (5.75 runs/game), while scoring 6 or more in 6 of those 8 games, from April 23rd through April 30th. The week since has been atrocious. But they were very good for an equal amount of time not long ago.

[John Belinski]

It would seem the Twins need a new hitting coach based on their hitter's  poor performance.  I think someone a little older and with more experience could help the Twins hitters, but I would be shocked if Rocco made a change.  It may be hard for the batters to accept help from a 33 year old coach that has limited experience.  If I was making way more than someone who was supposed to advise me I would have a hard time accepting their help since I would think I know more than they do. I often saw young managers have a hard time working with older employees who were thinking they knew more than the young manager.  Even Rocco has limited managing experience. Many baseball managers are older than Rocco and have had more experience. In the good old days all managers were older.

[Craig Arko]

5 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

It would seem the Twins need a new hitting coach based on their hitter's  poor performance.  I think someone a little older and with more experience could help the Twins hitters, but I would be shocked if Rocco made a change.  It may be hard for the batters to accept help from a 33 year old coach that has limited experience.  If I was making way more than someone who was supposed to advise me I would have a hard time accepting their help since I would think I know more than they do. I often saw young managers have a hard time working with older employees who were thinking they knew more than the young manager.  Even Rocco has limited managing experience. Many baseball managers are older than Rocco and have had more experience. In the good old days all managers were older.

TK was pretty young when he became manager. That worked, at least for a while.

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

It would seem the Twins need a new hitting coach based on their hitter's  poor performance.  I think someone a little older and with more experience could help the Twins hitters, but I would be shocked if Rocco made a change.  It may be hard for the batters to accept help from a 33 year old coach that has limited experience.  If I was making way more than someone who was supposed to advise me I would have a hard time accepting their help since I would think I know more than they do. I often saw young managers have a hard time working with older employees who were thinking they knew more than the young manager.  Even Rocco has limited managing experience. Many baseball managers are older than Rocco and have had more experience. In the good old days all managers were older.

There was a really good article (I feel bad because I can't remember if it was by Gleeman or Hayes) at the beginning of the year about how Correa "tested" Popkins early to see if he was worthy. Lots of reports that Correa put in a good word on Popkins, through Boras, to Gallo, and Popkins was a large part of the reason Gallo signed here. Gordon gives Popkins a ton of credit for his breakout last year. These are just the reports/articles I remember. I don't think it's a question of respecting Popkins. Correa doesn't seem shy about letting the FO know what he thinks about anything. I'd guess if he didn't trust Popkins the FO would know and they'd have made a move over the offseason.

Now, none of that means he's doing a good job right now (I don't know if he is or isn't), but I don't think it has anything to do with his age, or players being willing to accept his help. These guys have millions of dollars on the line, and they're not shy about voicing their opinions. If a coach isn't trusted in a clubhouse they're removed pretty quick.

[John Belinski]

5 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

TK was pretty young when he became manager. That worked, at least for a while.

 

6 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

TK was pretty young when he became manager. That worked, at least for a while.

Tom was a player for 10 years and then had 9 years of coaching experience before coming the Twin's manager. He wasn't really old when he took over as the Twin's manager, but he had experience in baseball playing and coaching.

[hitterscount]

Who puts together the staff? Football and basketball coaches generally hire their own assistants/coaches, with the front office providing a budget and ultimately signing off on hires... but it falls on the head coach (in this case the manager).  Is it different in baseball? 

Other than the starting pitching and the closer, the current product on the field is probably the most undisciplined team I have watched in 35 years. Last year's team, with all the injuries, were hitting better than this group. And it goes beyond hitting. Fielding errors, mental errors on the base paths, failing or refusing to advance runners into scoring positions, lack of clutch hitting, a struggling bullpen and some questionable usage...  what else is there to be bad at? The lack of fundamental baseball at this level is inexcusable. 

The manager keeps running out the same 1-4 hitters, there is zero accountability or personal responsibility. I have to wonder what it's like in the clubhouse. Is everyone out for themselves and just swinging for the fences, is there any direction or expectations laid out by the manager. I am not sure it is a hitting coach issue... I think it might be a step or two above him. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

It's pretty tough to cut bait on a hitting coach (or if the top guy goes do all of the hitting coaches have to go?) and change gears in the middle of the season, especially when he has apparently won the respect of several players on the club.  Probably the only way to do that is if you could replace him with a team legend with some coaching experience that everyone would immediately respect and work with, like Rod Carew or Tony Oliva if it was 1980's and 1990's.

There is also the question of truly identifying the problem. Is it a player quality problem?  Is it a coaching problem?  Are they being taught the wrong things?  Are they unable to do the things they are asked to do?  If you pull the plug on the hitting coach and that's not the problem, you've likely made it worse.  I think from the outside looking in it is VERY difficult to really make that determination.  We just need to hope that someone inside the organization with the right information at hand can figure it out. 

[Nick Nelson]

8 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The manager keeps running out the same 1-4 hitters, there is zero accountability or personal responsibility. I have to wonder what it's like in the clubhouse. Is everyone out for themselves and just swinging for the fences, is there any direction or expectations laid out by the manager. I am not sure it is a hitting coach issue... I think it might be a step or two above him. 

Who would you like him to replace them with in the top of the lineup? I don't think moving Gallo or Vazquez or some other slumping hitter up in the batting order really jibes with "accountability." 

[hitterscount]

3 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Who would you like him to replace them with in the top of the lineup? I don't think moving Gallo or Vazquez or some other slumping hitter up in the batting order really jibes with "accountability." 

I was in favor with the Arraez trade, but it definitely left a hole at the top of the order. Kepler leading off is not the answer. I would say Taylor against lefties, makes contact and could steal a base... if they were a team that utilized that option. Buxton has led off before, although not my favorite option. Polanco against RHP?  Do something. 

I think you have to move Correa down...  until he hopefully turns it around. Polanco moving to second when not leading off,  Buxton than Kirloff? What is currently being run out on a nightly basis isn't working. They are making mediocre to bad pitcher look like aces.... on a nightly basis. 

[OvertheHill]

I'm guessing that I may not be alone here in being deeply disappointed in the apparent stubbornness by this organization to make changes or adjustments to a formula that clearly isn't working. Been discussed here ad nauseam that this roster is built like the 2019 Bomba thing is coming back: spoiler alert, it's not. We have an organizational philosophy built on swing for the fences, undisciplined plate appearances, shoddy fielding and base running, and no apparent consequences. All those guys in the dugout look just a little too comfortable to me considering how poorly they're meeting the expectations of their job. Hopefully the Miranda thing focusses people a little.

Miranda belongs in St. Paul to work on things, and I'm optimistic that he'll pan out eventually. As what, I'm not sure - he isn't going to magically morph into a plus fielder, and how many DH types do you really need?

I'm honestly the last person to advocate change simply for the sake of change; baseball is a marathon yada yada. But there's a disturbing pattern here of complacency - high priced "stars" looking unprepared to start the season, and no one visibly upset in the dugout when they put garbage like the 7th inning yesterday out there. As pointed out, Baldelli's post game didn't have the sort of fire it should, if only to placate the fans. Maybe that's the point I'm laboring to make - the fans really don't seem to matter to this mess. It's supposed to be entertainment, but I'm not inclined to keep funding this.

[Vanimal46]

I don’t know anything about the stuff Popkins does with the players on and off the field. The unfortunate thing is they can’t trade away or DFA everyone that’s struggling so he’ll be the likely scapegoat. 

If I were Popkins and my job was on the line, I’d argue that the talent I’m working with doesn’t jive with the new rules implemented. Lots of plodding, swing for the fences type of players. Top signing last winter was a Mendoza line 3 true outcomes hitter. Traded away the only elite contact bat in the lineup…

I don’t know man, even this average Joe fan recognized the offense was going to be the biggest issue on the team before the season started. 

[Whitey333]

While I wished they would have hired a more experienced hitting coach, perhaps someone with major league playing experience, I am not in favor of firing the hitting coach.  Most of the overpaid and underperforming star players we have on the team should still be able to hit but they are not.  Put the blame on the players themselves.

[stringer bell]

I seldom blame coaches for teams’ problems. I doubt Popkins is to blame in any meaningful way. The hitters need to hit and it’s really on them. 

[roger]

I know nothing about the hitting coach and whether he should stay or go.  I can’t believe that Rocco wasn’t involved in hiring him.  He and all coaches are led by and answer to Rocco.  If he isn’t getting the job done it is Rocco’s responsibility to get him to improve or cut bait.  There are a lot more problems with this team than hitting, although it is bad.  Expect the answer is to make a change at the top, but that won’t change until the off season.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Two coaching moves that would solve all problems;

Dougie replaces Rocco

Joe Mauer replaces Popken

Guarantee you sloppy play, mental mistakes, etc. disappear overnight and hitters "listen" to their coach.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

This isn't about lineup makeup or roster makeup.  When 10 of your 13 position players hitting below expectations, in some cases drastically below, it looks ugly.

Just like last year's injury issues were not really the fault of the trainer, this magnitude of bad offense is not really the fault of the hitting coach.  That being said, change for the sake of change may be necessary to provide a scapegoat and provide a new voice.

[mikelink45]

Yes move on - if they are not going to replace the manager and bench coach someone has to take the fall and Popkins looks like the right guy.  

I know it is against Minnesota Nice, but sometimes evaluations need to be made and why is it worse to cut him than the batters he has failed like Larnach and Miranda?

[gman]

Buxton and Kepler are pretty much hitting in keeping with their career numbers. So are Taylor  and  Gallo,  Correa is way off his numbers and is only hitting 161 in his last 15 games. Who will he take instructions from. He may just be burned out from spending all winter chasing a $350mil contract. Polanco has come back from injury and is doing well. Kirilloff is new in the lineup and Farmer is just back today. Vazquez is really far off and Jeffers is hitting better. Are they going to play him more?

There's your starting 9 and for most they are right on their career numbers. So basically their not very good and does somebody really expect the hitting coach to take some long term major leaguers and greatly enhance their career numbers in 35 games. If so somebody give that guy a lifetime contract. If improvement comes it will be in Correa turning it around, Kirilloff being who we hope he can be and Vazguez adding a little more. Maybe Farmer will be better than Miranda.

[joefish]

I miss Molitor

[Seth Stohs]

11 minutes ago, joefish said:

I miss Molitor

Yeah, his track record as a hitting coach is "pretty impressive." 

[Seth Stohs]

Popkins is safe, and should be. He's got Correa's support and that's key, but he's also very well respected around the league. 

Derek Shomon is safe, I would think. He only had two years in the organization before joining the club as the third batting coach this year. 

If anyone is susceptible, it's probably Rudy Hernandez. He's been a hitting coach in the big leagues for probably the last 7-8 years (I could, but won't, look it up). He was often given a lot of credit by Sano, Rosario, and others from the group 4-6 years ago. I'm sure he's not worse a coach now, but a lot of the guys he worked with in the minors and then in the majors are now elsewhere. 

[David HK]

The Twins have a hitting coach?  🤔

 

[tony&rodney]

I understand the article as a discussion point but batting coaches are rarely dismissed during the season. 

The general frustration from a difficult stretch right now by the batters is part of the game. A look around baseball will inform one that the Twins may be struggling but they are both above .500 and in first place. Most folks picked the Twins to win around 85 games. I guessed a AL Central title based on head to head wins with both Cleveland and Minnesota finishing with 84 victories. Despite some head scratching from the odd at bats, I'm actually thinking the Twins will surpass my initial thinking. Kirilloff won't finish the year with an OBP of .555, but neither will Correa hit .200. I am encouraged by Buxton taking walks. Right now a few players are fighting themselves and trying to force the action. Better at bats are coming and likely a few changes too. Along the way, somewhere down the line, Julien and Lewis should help the offense.

The batting coach can detect flaws and make suggestions but only the player goes to the plate. I doubt Popkins advises guys to swing at head high fastballs. Basically, the coach just needs to keep low key and keep positive while offering minimal words in the cage.  

[Eris]

I don’t think a hitting coach is responsible for players swinging at pitches a foot out of the strike zone. 
 

It would be interesting to learn how Brent Rooker was able to resurrect his MLB career by doubling his walks and significantly reducing his strike outs. This transformation was over one offseason. He is an example of what is possible with improved plate discipline. 
 

edited to add. Brent Rooker had minor league seasons with BB near 14%. He is at career lows with SO even compared to his stats in the minors. 

Edited May 11, 2023 by Eris