Offseason Status Update: Time to Pivot

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins got their catcher, but that development was overshadowed days later when they missed out on their shortstop and top offseason target. 

The front office has a sizable cash reserve but few remaining paths to spend it. They've buoyed their floor but failed to raise their ceiling in any way. Where do we go from here?

Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa Signs Mega-Deal with San Francisco Giants

Sadly, the biggest headline of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far has been their heartbreak: Correa, whom the team pursued with a level of intention and aggressiveness that far surpasses any free agent target in franchise history, opted for the San Francisco Giants. Thirteen years, $350 million. Whew.

In the end, despite pushing themselves to (or past) their limit, the Twins ultimately fell vastly short of the big-market Giants, who made Correa the second highest-paid free agent in MLB history. 

It was a level the Twins were never going to realistically reach. Although they made an adamant effort and were, by all accounts, the runner-up for Correa, they came nowhere near matching the giant offer. Now the front office must regroup and figure out what's next. High-end options have dwindled and impact trade options are limited. 

On the bright side, they do have the luxury of aiming basically wherever they please in terms of making upgrades, because the Twins checked off their last essential need from the shopping the list earlier in the week by signing a new catcher.

Twins Sign Christian Vazquez to Three-Year Deal

The front office was able to confidently address its top non-Correa priority of the offseason: signing a catcher who can not only share time with Ryan Jeffers at catcher, but take over as the lead dog if needed.

On Monday we learned that the Twins agreed to terms with Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million. While it barely registers in comparison to the mammoth $285 million offer to Correa, Vazquez's new contract amazingly ranks as the third-largest signed by any free agent under this front office. 

While certainly not to be confused with a viable "big splash of the offseason," the Vazquez signing is a bold and assertive one from the front office. He's no star, but he's a respected, reliable, experienced backstop who offers tremendous stability at a position that had little, and adds credibility to Minnesota's position player unit.

That's all well and good, but a downtrodden fan base needs more than a solid catcher who fills a need. The Twins need a signature move or two to salvage this wayward offseason. Unfortunately, one of the few remaining star-caliber assets on the market was snatched up on Thursday night.

Yankees Reel in Carlos Rodon on Six-Year Contract

It's unclear how hard they tried, but Minnesota's hopes of acquiring a frontline starter from free agency have officially gone kaput. The last ace-caliber arm is now off the board after Rodon agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees. 

I'll be honest: I'd want no part of that deal. As great as he's been over the past couple seasons, Rodon is an extremely volatile property and the idea of entering a six-year guaranteed pact with those kinds of AAVs makes me all kinda nervous. If they're gonna spend that kind of money on a starting pitcher it shouldn't be out of leveraged desperation.

Still, it would've been a major statement move, and now there aren't many such opportunities for one. In fact, on the free agent market, there's only one.

Twins Turn Their Attention to Dansby Swanson. Then What?

The Twins have been connected via rumors to Swanson but I always suspected it to be a negotiating ploy to gain leverage in Correa talks. My skepticism mainly stems from the fact that he seems like the type of high-risk long-term investment this front office avidly avoids. 

However, from talking to a few trusted people, I do get the sense the Twins are legitimate in their pursuit, contradicting a Jon Heyman report that they "appear to be regrouping after losing out on Carlos Correa, so Swanson’s likely out."

I can't say I'm at all confident they'll sign the former Braves shortstop, but I do believe they're going to give a real shot. They'll face stiff competition because they're not the only club that missed out on numerous top targets and has money left to burn.

Should they miss out on Swanson, it'll be interesting to see if the Twins can find a way to spend their way back to the 2022 threshold. Or if they even care to do so.

Roster and Payroll Projection: v3

The specific breakdown of Vazquez's $30 million deal haven't been revealed yet, to my knowledge. But assuming it's split evenly at $10 million/year, his addition pushes the projected 2023 payroll up above 100 mil by just a hair. 

Unless the Twins can pull a stunner and sign Swanson, or pull a rabbit out of their hat with a big trade, it's going be a dreary and bleak holiday for baseball fans in Minnesota, who've had to sit idly by while watching everyone else open up their awesome presents.

New uniforms and Christian Vazquez ain't gonna cut it. The front office needs to step up and take action unless they want a large portion of their followers to simply check out.

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[Jacksson]

One move that had to be made since the team gutted their upper level catching depth in their quest to unload Donaldson.

If ANY Twins followers truly believed that the Twins would empty the Pohlad warchest of Bucks to make a serious offer on any of the big 4 shortstops, they are deluded.  To any of those interested, I can make you a heck of a deal on the Mendota Bridge.  Twins had their shortstop position filled when they acquired Farmer. 

[Einheri]

Looks like coal for Christmas this year in Minnesota; plus, the neighbors won't want me burning any coal to keep warm.  And it doesn't taste too good.

[jimmyc]

Jean Segura

[Mike Sixel]

If you won't sign big time FAs (or even second tier ones like Bassit)....and you keep trading prospects, how do you plan to have long term, sustained, success without prospects because you keep trading them instead of spending money.

[TwinsGM]

There's still a path for a decent offseason

Sign Eovaldi for 2/36 or Kluber 1/10 for veteran rotation depth, 1 of Fulmer, Ottavino, or Knebel for 1/5, 1 of Andrus or Iglesia for 1/5, and JD Martinez for 2/36.  This would give us more depth than we've had in a long time.  FO would probably make a few trades to make room on the 40 for another impact player.  Who would go first off the 40 man?  Sands? Balazovic?  Enlow? Contreras?  Celestino? 

[SanoMustGo]

Richard Dawkins once said "Faith is belief in spite of, even perhaps because of, the lack of evidence".  This seems to fit perfectly with the state of MLB for organizations like the Twins.   I think the only way organizations with owners like the Twins can compete is for such owners to sell to another group willing to invest.  This is a family business for the Pohlad's and that means maximizing profits before anything...including investments back into the business. That includes investing in the scouting/player development, which I'm not sure they are doing in a way that makes up for the inability to play at the top of the FA market.  For these reasons I have come to the conclusion this organization is going to put out a bad product for some time.  So the question is after 2 losing seasons, and not seeing any legit reason to think our injury prone prospects and players can compete, is "when does the real rebuild begin?"

[Linus]

Ahhh…..the infamous pivot. The signature move of the Twins.  No tap dancing just the quick pivot. They are so adept they can pivot to the right and they can pivot to the left. At this point it’s choreographed into a slick dance move swallowed whole by their fans. Sad truth is that the pivot is only used to avoid onrushing opportunities. 

[tony&rodney]

The Pohlads are good at running businesses and making money. The Minnesota Twins are just one of their businesses and needs to show a profit. All of that is just fine by me. I do think MLB requires a little more risk-taking than the Twins are willing to entertain, but they have  their guidelines. Also fair.

The Twins have put themselves in a little bit of a tight spot though as far as accumulating the talent needed to be a worthwhile team to watch in 2023. Attendance was down last year despite the end of Covid which brought on a huge demand for entertainment. The Twins lacked charisma last year and you could sense that the crowds felt so. A team that played station to station, followed the plan, and had atrocious fundamentals in the field, on the bases, and at the plate turned off people even as the team was leading the AL Central. The current roster just doesn't cut it. There are a couple of free agents worth a look: Chafin, Martinez, ..... hard to know what Falvey has in mind. I wouldn't mind letting Martin, Julien, or even Lee get a look. That leaves trades and it will take at least two trades to add some talent and I think the Twins need to use their 40 person roster to make those trades. It's Falvey time because if the team tanks, loses 90+ games, and attendance plummets .... well then he is gone. I'm hoping he stays. 

[Mike Sixel]

My pivot is to deal Kepler and Polanco and Maeda and Mahle and sign Gray to an extension. 

Punt this year, and give the youth the team and see who sinks or swims.

Martin in LF or 2B (and backup CF). Wallner in RF or DH. Larnach in LF or RF. Lewis up as soon as he's healthy to play SS. Kiriloff to 1B. 

Maybe even Julien at 2B or RF or DH or first (if AK is hurt).

But, please, pick a position for Julien and Martin and stick them there even if they are in AAA. Put Lee at 3B or 2B or RF. Be ready to promote him like ATL did with their top people last year.

I also consider moving Duran to SP, since they've shown they won't even sign second tier FAs......

[SanoMustGo]

19 minutes ago, Linus said:

Ahhh…..the infamous pivot. The signature move of the Twins.  No tap dancing just the quick pivot. They are so adept they can pivot to the right and they can pivot to the left. At this point it’s choreographed into a slick dance move swallowed whole by their fans. Sad truth is that the pivot is only used to avoid onrushing opportunities. 

Pivot to what?  Full rebuild time.

[DJL44]

32 minutes ago, TwinsGM said:

There's still a path for a decent offseason

Sign Eovaldi for 2/36 or Kluber 1/10 for veteran rotation depth, 1 of Fulmer, Ottavino, or Knebel for 1/5, 1 of Andrus or Iglesia for 1/5, and JD Martinez for 2/36.  This would give us more depth than we've had in a long time.  FO would probably make a few trades to make room on the 40 for another impact player.  Who would go first off the 40 man?  Sands? Balazovic?  Enlow? Contreras?  Celestino? 

That could get them into second place in the division.

[rickyriolo]

That was a very good read Nick  Thank you sir well done

[DJL44]

Acquire some help for the bullpen. Hope the team is healthy through April and May. Get the new TV deal done by June and sell off all the veterans in July. Bring up Varland and Wallner in August - they have big enough families to sell a few hundred tickets on their own.

[Azviking101]

How about Turner/JD/Brantley at DH

best available defensive SS in trade

and load the damn pen. Rogers, Green, Chafin, Fulmer etc. get 3 of them 

[DJL44]

All those teams rumored to be interested in trading for Emilio Pagan - it's time to return some phone calls.

[singlesoverwalks]

I want the Twins to take the $28.5m/year they offered Carlos Correa and buy a CD. I want proof of the CD. They need to frame it and put it on display at Target Field. Then next year they add that to whatever they have left over from this year and spend it all on free agents. Don't blow it on Dansby Swanson this year.

[Whitey333]

It really has been a typical Twins off season thus far.  They not only didn't come close to signing Correa ( which actually may be good) they've let other mid tier free agents get picked up by other teams.  I'm sure it was planned out.  Offer Correa a deal you knew he wouldn't take so you can give a positive pr spin on how hard you tried.  Also let other free agents that are affordable go to other teams so there's not a lot left.  That way you can do some bargain basement shopping for the washed up, has been, and oft injured players you find while dumpster diving.  All in all so far I would say everything has gone about has become expected with the Twins.  

[USAFChief]

I don't want them to waste a pile of money on Swanson, and I ALWAYS want them to spend more.

Swanson doesn't move the needle, IMO. He's going to get way overpaid.

I have a feeling, though, the front office is feeling a lot of pressure and might make a desperate move.

I'd sign JD Martinez for DH and whoever their staff feels are the 2 best relievers still available. If you can get something useful for Kepler, pull the trigger now.

Pray for health, luck, and a weak ALC to keep them relevant. 

Blow it all up in July if it doesn't work.

[Monkeypaws]

SS is a position where the Twins have good prospect depth.

One fluke year of Correa shouldn't make folks think the Twins are big time SS free agent spenders.

I think Lewis will be a player.

Buy pitching if you must spend.

 

Postscript: The front office got creative with the CC deal, and almost pulled off a division win. Injuries paid cash, and it didn't work out. Did we really want to pay 41 year old Correa 20 some million? We had him for a year, and I'll remain a fan. Class act, good teammate, winner, great ballplayer. It was fun while it lasted.

[jimbo92107]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My pivot is to deal Kepler and Polanco and Maeda and Mahle and sign Gray to an extension. 

Punt this year, and give the youth the team and see who sinks or swims.

Martin in LF or 2B (and backup CF). Wallner in RF or DH. Larnach in LF or RF. Lewis up as soon as he's healthy to play SS. Kiriloff to 1B. 

Maybe even Julien at 2B or RF or DH or first (if AK is hurt).

But, please, pick a position for Julien and Martin and stick them there even if they are in AAA. Put Lee at 3B or 2B or RF. Be ready to promote him like ATL did with their top people last year.

I also consider moving Duran to SP, since they've shown they won't even sign second tier FAs......

Mainly agree, but I'd keep Mahle, just in case his shoulder holds up. Time for a team full of kids!

[CRF]

At this point...I'd lean toward doing a full rebuild. Blow it up and start over. Let ALL the kids play. Just like the 1980's. At least that might be fun to watch. It's obvious this FO/ownership isn't going to spend the money necessary to land any of the top FA's out there. Even the one(s) we desperately need. It's just not in their business model plan. Getting Correa last season was a total fluke.  Even though there's time left before ST, it sure doesn't look like that they're really trying to make any trades to help things out. All we've done is sign a catcher...which we absolutely had to do. If by some miracle, we'd make the playoffs, we'd get bounced right away by whomever we play. No matter what, it's the same old story here. I love the Twins, and I won't stop watching them, but I know how this tale turns out. 

[Karbo]

I miss the piranhas! Can't help but think this team just hasn't had that kind of hustle or energy since. They don't play fundamentally sound ball. This FO has built a slow, station to to station club that lacks speed (and heart). They hired an inexperienced manager that doesn't seem to have any real spirit. The end product is what we see on the field the last couple of years, and declining attendance.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, singlesoverwalks said:

I want the Twins to take the $28.5m/year they offered Carlos Correa and buy a CD. I want proof of the CD. They need to frame it and put it on display at Target Field. 

I want them to bring it onto the field before every game so we can all root for payroll flexibility.

[The_Phantom]

Any “blowing up” and “going into rebuild” needs to start with getting a new general manager. Falvey and Levine have done pretty much nothing in their tenure, continue to miss on talent, and haven’t even built a competitive farm system. One good season, that still ended in a playoff sweep. No hope for the future. 
 
Also, I’m over the rebuild cycle. Why are twins fans willing to accept sucking for the next 3-5 years while they rebuild, but then say “oh I’m glad twins drew a line in the sand at 10 years, there’s no way I woulda gone 13, those last 3-5 years of that contract would be brutal”

Seriously, why be willing to suck now for a rebuild that never comes, but not be willing to suck a decade down the road for a chance to actually do something NOW? Besides, you’d have 10 years to figure out how to maneuver around that contract 

[William K Johnson]

Everyone needs to take a deep breath.    Losing Correa is not the end of the world.     Farmer is a decent shortstop, and we will know by the time Lewis is ready whether he helps or hurts.    Honestly our pitching staff looks better on paper than most years and our bullpen will most likely be a lot better now that we have an established closer.   Catching is now acceptable, outfield has many options, and infield has many interchangeable parts.    My biggest concern is third, where Miranda has shown no ability to handle it defensively.     If he is given the chance and proves unable to handle it, either Lewis or Farmer shift there when Lewis is back.    I still say the trading of Urschela was our worst offseason move.

[mikelink45]

Up north the power is still off, the trees are down, driveways blocked, temp dropping.  We will deal with what we have - the same thing as we do with the Twins.  1991 is a long ways back in the rear view mirror and the view ahead might need a telescope, but when the season starts we will listen, shake our head and deal with the mosquitoes and black flies.  Time to stop obsessing over what the Twins did not do and get the power back. 

[EGFTShaw]

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

My pivot is to deal Kepler and Polanco and Maeda and Mahle and sign Gray to an extension. 

 

Kepler & Polanco I'm OK with your given your overall thought process.

But Maeda & Mahle contradict the idea of giving them a chance.  Maeda was top notch in 2020. Mahle has been predicted to be a true #1.  If we are punting, given them a chance and see what happens near the trade deadline.

You have to figure in the Twin's luck in your trading of M&M, (pitching version (TM)), and our luck would be that they turn into the pitching equivalent of David Ortiz.

I think as Nick mentioned, we raised our floor.  Our ceiling is not the past 2 years (losing records), but maybe 85-88 wins.  If anyone breaks through it goes up.  And in the Central division, 88 might just win it.

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I want them to bring it onto the field before every game so we can all root for payroll flexibility.

It must include the interest rate of the CD.  We can't undersell our money when it comes to CDs...LOL

[EGFTShaw]

1 hour ago, The_Phantom said:

Any “blowing up” and “going into rebuild” needs to start with getting a new general manager. Falvey and Levine have done pretty much nothing in their tenure, continue to miss on talent, and haven’t even built a competitive farm system. One good season, that still ended in a playoff sweep. No hope for the future. 
 
Also, I’m over the rebuild cycle. Why are twins fans willing to accept sucking for the next 3-5 years while they rebuild, but then say “oh I’m glad twins drew a line in the sand at 10 years, there’s no way I woulda gone 13, those last 3-5 years of that contract would be brutal”

Seriously, why be willing to suck now for a rebuild that never comes, but not be willing to suck a decade down the road for a chance to actually do something NOW? Besides, you’d have 10 years to figure out how to maneuver around that contract 

Disagree.  Understand the perspective though and the feelings behind it.

But we are not in a horrible situation.

1) even given our below league average budget, we are cash flush.  Normally we sit with maybe $20M to work with.  More is coming off in the next year or two.  So we could go after high quality FAs again next year. and not bust our below league average budget.

2) we have a nice crop, maybe not great because they have not shown it yet, of talent.  Never underestimate the competitiveness of athletes.  Ozzie did and eventually called the Piranhas as continued to beat the Pale Hose year in and year out.

3) we have lived with far worse, (and he did a decent job his first session and cleaned up some of the mess in his second session), Terry Ryan.

Lastly, 100 agree with your last statement.  My first inclination was to go 10yrs and $342-$345M for C4.  But given the poll yesterday and reading another article about the C4 contract and value, I think we should have gone 13yrs and $361M, or $1M more than the rest.  This might have been a limit by the owners, but we will never know.  

But I think we had a chance to do something really special.