I Know It’s Early, but some observations on the team

[stringer bell]

Less than two weeks until Opening Day and some things are taking shape while other things remain undetermined. Some things won't really be determined in Ft. Myers, such as the split in playing time between Sanchez and Jeffers. Some things are taking shape. Here are some of my observations:

1) Byron Buxton has batted lead off. Would the Twins consider having a guy who homered once every 13 plate appearances on top of the order? Luis Arraez is more of the classical lead off guy, but he's hit down in the order when both he and Buxton have been in the lineup.

2) Positions played--Kirilloff has played left, right and first base, Gordon has played second and short, So far, Gordon hasn't played in the outfield and Urshela hasn't played shortstop, where a week ago he was projected to be the starter,

3) Taylor Rogers looks like he's going to be the closer. He is pitching in the early innings against as many major leaguers as he can.

4) The pitchers seem to be ahead of the hitters. The Twins haven't looked great at the plate, but the opponents aren't hitting much either. 

5) The rotation seems to be taking shape, but it looks like there will be room for multiple-inning relief or openers. To start the season, it appears  that the young arms won't be going even five innings. Gray and Bundy might be ready to go six by Opening Day. 

6) There's a chance that a couple of rookies will be on the pitching staff. Duran has been impressive as has Winder. With Dobnak's injury, there would seem to be a starting job available for Winder (or maybe coming in after the opener).

7) It doesn't seem that any non-roster players have forced their way on the roster so far. Beckham has gotten in a lot of games, and Smeltzer has had two good performances, but there haven't been many wow moments from non-roster players.

[Monkeypaws]

There are a lot of ins and outs yet, you know. A line has yet to be drawn in the sand.

[Mark G]

Solid observations; I would agree across the board.  I would add one last general one:  we appear to be putting most of our eggs in one basket.  We appear to be betting that our lineup can make up for our pitching, again, unless there is something coming we don't know about.  And, by coming, I mean soon, as opening day is 12 days away and any pitching coming to camp now would already have to be in some other camp to be ready to go by then (or shortly after).   Could this staff be enough over 162 games? 

P.S.  Maybe Buxton at leadoff might actually be best.  Leadoff hitters are guaranteed the most at bats in a game, and his speed is better utilized there.  Last year he hit 19 home runs and only had 32 RBI's, so a lot of his home runs are solo, anyway.  I wouldn't mind keeping him there if we can, with Arraez hitting next with his bat control and contact ability. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

8 hours ago, Monkeypaws said:

There are a lot of ins and outs yet, you know. A line has yet to be drawn in the sand.

It’s a very complicated case, Maude. And, uh, a lotta strands to keep in my head, man. Lotta strands in old Duder's head.

[stringer bell]

And today's lineup has some significant position moves. Polanco at ss, Gordon in lf, Kirilloff at first with Buxton batting leadoff and Arraez hitting third.

[chpettit19]

I love Buxton in the leadoff spot. Acuna Jr seems to be a pretty decent leadoff hitter. Buxton 1 and Arraez 2 is what I was thinking before the Correa deal. I much prefer Arraez behind Buck since Arraez is fine working deep counts and not afraid to hit with 2 strikes giving Buxton time to take a base if he wants. Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco maybe? It'll be interesting to see what they do, but I like Buxton at the top.

[stringer bell]

Call me old school, but Buck would be better suited batting down in the order. He isn't very selective and OBP isn't his long suit. He could also do damage with runners on. 

[Doctor Gast]

I have changed my position of Arraez leading off. He's not that fast or base path runner, he'll clog up the paths for the likes of #1 Buxton, #2 Polanco and #3 Correa. His ability to hit for contact, makes him better the hitter side of a hit & run situation and front of a slower HR type.

It'll be very interesting how they set up piggy-back system. Both Duran and Smeltzer look good and IMO are candidates for that system. Gray is a great addition to add quality innings but Bundy, IMO should be on short leash to maintain the amount of quality innings. To be the winner that Falvey claims to be we still need another experienced front line SP. With no experienced true MLB ready CF back-up, we will have to regrettably depend heavily on Celestestino again (not my ideal). Celestino could have been a very viable sub if he hadn't been rushed last season.

[rv78]

Buxton-Arraez-Correa-Polanco. yes this at the top of the order. Then depending on where Arraez is playing.... 3B, DH, LF, ???? then Kirilloff, Urshela/Miranda, Kepler, Sano, Jeffers/Sanchez.

[stringer bell]

I just checked Gamecast today and it listed injuries to Alcala, Miranda and Rooker. I heard that Rooker had a minor issue, but this is the first injury news I’ve heard about Miranda and Alcala. 

[stringer bell]

Chi Chi Gonzalez will probably be pitching in St. Paul if the Twins don't release him. Not enough strikes. 

[Linus]

6 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Chi Chi Gonzalez will probably be pitching in St. Paul if the Twins don't release him. Not enough strikes. 

If they can’t find 15 better pitchers than this guy we are in trouble. I guess when your pitching acquisition strategy is the waiver wire this is what you end up with. 

[KirbyHawk75]

I love our lineup.  The bullpen I sm ok with.  The rotation, besides Gray, scares the Hell out of me.  Ryan and Ober have potential but are still really young.  I like Winder, but most rookie starters struggle at first.  I almost want him to start in St. Paul to get some innings.  However, he may be the best we have for a fifth starter.  Bundy just seems like another cheap starter that we have signed since Terry Ryan.  They have given me a lot of PTSD over the years.  

[gil4]

12 hours ago, Mark G said:

P.S.  Maybe Buxton at leadoff might actually be best.  Leadoff hitters are guaranteed the most at bats in a game, and his speed is better utilized there.  Last year he hit 19 home runs and only had 32 RBI's, so a lot of his home runs are solo, anyway.   

That is probably because he's either leading off the game, leading off an inning because he bats after the out-making machines we had in the 9 hole, or bats with bases empty because he follows the OBP black holes in the 7th, 8th, and 9th spots (292, .286, .262)

[wsnydes]

21 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Call me old school, but Buck would be better suited batting down in the order. He isn't very selective and OBP isn't his long suit. He could also do damage with runners on. 

I'm not sure there's really a wrong answer here.  He could also do a lot of damage being the runner on too.  He's clearly a distraction on the bases, and that's adventageous to the hitters down the lineup.

[PopRiveter]

On 3/26/2022 at 4:52 AM, Mark G said:

P.S.  Maybe Buxton at leadoff might actually be best.  Leadoff hitters are guaranteed the most at bats in a game, and his speed is better utilized there.  Last year he hit 19 home runs and only had 32 RBI's, so a lot of his home runs are solo, anyway.  I wouldn't mind keeping him there if we can, with Arraez hitting next with his bat control and contact ability. 

This sounded right to me, but it got me thinking so I looked up splits and was surprised at what I saw.

In 2021, 42% of all Twins PA’s came with men on base, and they hit 38% of their HR’s in that situation.

Over Buxton’s career, 43% of his PA’s have been with men on, and only 34% of his HR’s were in that situation. So he’s been a little more solo-homer prone, but not dramatically.

However in 2021, only 37% of his PA’s came with men on and 36% of his HR’s came with men on. So virtually no skew. He was almost equally likely to homer in either situation. It was just a matter of opportunity.

I did not expect the numbers to say that.

 

[notoriousgod71]

It's really difficult to take this team seriously as a threat with this pitching staff.

[Squirrel]

11 minutes ago, notoriousgod71 said:

It's really difficult to take this team seriously as a threat with this pitching staff.

I don't think the OP was making any such claims

[stringer bell]

Well, today's lineup might be what is on tap for Opening Day. 

[chinmusic]

10 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Well, today's lineup might be what is on tap for Opening Day. 

Indeed!  Maybe Gray debuts  today as well as Correa?

[lecroy24fan]

7 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

Indeed!  Maybe Gray debuts  today as well as Correa?

Gray is pitching in a minor league game tomorrow, as the Twins are off. Correa is supposed to play today.

[chinmusic]

8 minutes ago, lecroy24fan said:

Gray is pitching in a minor league game tomorrow, as the Twins are off. Correa is supposed to play today.

Thanks..and apparently Ryan is starting today.

[stringer bell]

Lineup per espn:

Buxton

Polanco

Correa

Kepler

Sano

Kirilloff

Sanchez

Urshela

Jeffers

Ryan

[Richie the Rally Goat]

42 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Lineup per espn:

Buxton CF

Polanco 2B

Correa SS

Kepler RF

Sano 1B

Kirilloff LF

Sanchez DH

Urshela 3B

Jeffers C

Ryan

Added positions from MLB.com

[Squirrel]

47 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Lineup per espn:

Buxton

Polanco

Correa

Kepler

Sano

Kirilloff

Sanchez

Urshela

Jeffers

Ryan

We have a game thread set up … let’s move game day conversation there

 

[stringer bell]

Not exactly roaring out of the gates—Polanco .059, Kepler .167, Sanó.111, Sánchez .077, Urshela .133, Jeffers .083. 

[shortround81]

Joe Ryan is a weirdo. I guess so is Zach Greinke and Mark Fidrych

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

29 minutes ago, shortround81 said:

Joe Ryan is a weirdo. I guess so is Zach Greinke and Mark Fidrych

Ryan's going to be "working seasonally" in a city with a strong bicycling culture during its most pleasant weather season. Plus the profiles about him that we got when the Twins acquired him last summer mentioned his active, outdoorsy upbringing. Wanting to ride that 1946 Schwinn around doesn't sound so weird to me!

[The Mad King]

Buxton batting leadoff... Think Ricky Henderson. 

 

Smeltzer - turned in a decent performance today. He'll definately pitch in the show sometime this year 

[RpR]

Right now - Derek Fisher, Jake Cave and Jose Miranda are the most productive players, but Larnach two home runs put him in the rbi lead.

Using a standard of at least 6 games played.