I Know It’s Early, but some observations on the team

[Cap'n Piranha]

18 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You're the one who brought up Billy Hamilton in comparison to Buxton. I was just extending your strawman.

I brought up Billy Hamilton to demonstrate that speed is not as important as power.  Seems germane, and therefore not a strawman, in a discussion about whether we should be attempting to maximize Buxton's speed at the expense of power, or vice versa, no?

Your argument about me being hypocritical for not wanting Buxton to bat with the bases empty, but being ok with a lot of solo HRs from a 9 Joey Gallo lineup is a strawman, because it ignores the foundational thrust of the conversation--specifically, what is the optimal lineup construction to maximize Byron Buxton's ability?  In a 9 Joey Gallo lineup, lineup construction is irrelevant and moot--there is no way to alter the lineup to maximize OBP in front of Joey Gallo.  As such, your comparison is invalid, and therefore, a strawman.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I brought up Billy Hamilton to demonstrate that speed is not as important as power.  Seems germane, and therefore not a strawman, in a discussion about whether we should be attempting to maximize Buxton's speed at the expense of power, or vice versa, no?

Your argument about me being hypocritical for not wanting Buxton to bat with the bases empty, but being ok with a lot of solo HRs from a 9 Joey Gallo lineup is a strawman, because it ignores the foundational thrust of the conversation--specifically, what is the optimal lineup construction to maximize Byron Buxton's ability?  In a 9 Joey Gallo lineup, lineup construction is irrelevant and moot--there is no way to alter the lineup to maximize OBP in front of Joey Gallo.  As such, your comparison is invalid, and therefore, a strawman.

You said Hamilton would be fighting for MVPs if it was about speed. That's ignoring the entire rest of the player Hamilton was. Ichiro won an MVP with almost no power. Yes, there was less emphasis on power 20 years ago, but he was receiving MVP votes as recently as 2010 and he was a no power guy, but was a great overall player. Hamilton is a 2 tool player (glove and speed). It's 100% a strawman to bring him up in relation to MVPs. Kevin Kiermaier received MVP votes in 2015 with 10 HRs. Power was pretty important to teams then. Altuve had 13 HRs in 2018 and was receiving MVP votes. Andrelton freaking Simmons was 15th in MVP voting in 2018. Merrifield right behind them with 12 HRs. David Fletcher slugged .425 in 2020 and received MVP votes. Correa slugged .485 just last year and finished 5th in MVP voting. And those are just for AL MVP voting. Billy Hamilton in the same sentence as "MVP" is a strawman.

[chpettit19]

58 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

If you don't want Buxton hitting with the bases empty, then wouldn't you want guys who are more likely to get on base hitting in front of him?  Jeffers is actually not likely to be on second--last year 68% of the time he got on base he was at first (that number may go up or down if fangraphs tracked how often he was on first as the result of a fielder's choice or error, or on second as the result of an error).  That said, I'm sure there weren't so many two base errors in Jeffer's PAs that he ended up on 2B, 3B or with a HR as often as a 1B, BB, or HBP.  So when you say you're good with Jeffers in front of Buxton, what you're saying is you want a guy even slower than Arraez (26.8 ft/sec, which may get better if he gets to DH more and therefore rests his knees) in Jeffers (25.8ft/sec, which may get worse as he gets more innings catching) hitting in front of Buxton, slowing him down even more, so that he can get more PAs (which are the least valuable kind) with no one on base?

I don't care if Buxton is behind slower runners.  That means he had a runner(s) on base for his PA, which is what we want.  Imagine this scenario--Byron Buxton is coming up to bat; do you want him to have someone on base, or do you want the bases to be empty?  The benefit of runners scoring on Buxton's XBHs (which he gets more of than anyone else on the roster) outweighs the benefit of Buxton potentially being able to advance further than a different runner on someone else's hit.  Saying you don't want a singles/OBP machine on in front of Buxton, but are fine with an even slower guy who will still be on first almost 70% of the time simply means you want fewer men on base for Buxton.

Who will be on first base after their AB more Arraez or Jeffers? You're changing between the stats you want to use regarding being on first. Earlier you said it'd be 5 ABs a month in Arraez's favor so that's what I've contended with. I've given you the breakdown in the difference of XBHs between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. You've conveniently ignored all of that. I've given you a season in which Buxton hits 50 HRs, 35 2Bs, and 10 3Bs. That'd be 95 XBHs for Buxton. There have only been 15 instances in the entirety of baseball history where a guy had 100 XBHs in a season so I'm giving you quite the season for Buxton. And he's still only getting 3-5 more extra base hits a month than Correa or Polanco.

I want to optimize the lineup, not just Buxton, for the entirety of the season. I will sacrifice those 3-5 extra base hit results each month in the name of the faster player being in front of multiple other players with the best chance to hit for extra base hits since he can do the most damage on their XBHs on the base paths. If the next best hitters on the team weren't Correa and Polanco I'd feel different. But if they're each getting 65 XBHs this year I'm taking Buxton in front of them over them in front of Buxton because he can take advantage of those better than they can take advantage of his 95 in his "one of the greatest seasons in the history of baseball" season I'm giving you.

Or let's do it this way...you're trying to take advantage of his 95 XBHs and maximize those. I'm trying to take advantage of his 35 doubles plus his 10 triples plus the 100+ other times he reaches base. He had 42 extra base hits last year. His speed could be taken advantage of in 23 while the 19 HRs didn't matter how fast he was (although inside the park HRs are a thing with him...). I want to take advantage of 23 of his extra base hits plus the 49 times he reached base via 1B, BB, or HBP.

[RpR]

Observation:

Buxton just hit his first grand slam of the year.?

[Cap'n Piranha]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You said Hamilton would be fighting for MVPs if it was about speed. That's ignoring the entire rest of the player Hamilton was. Ichiro won an MVP with almost no power. Yes, there was less emphasis on power 20 years ago, but he was receiving MVP votes as recently as 2010 and he was a no power guy, but was a great overall player. Hamilton is a 2 tool player (glove and speed). It's 100% a strawman to bring him up in relation to MVPs. Kevin Kiermaier received MVP votes in 2015 with 10 HRs. Power was pretty important to teams then. Altuve had 13 HRs in 2018 and was receiving MVP votes. Andrelton freaking Simmons was 15th in MVP voting in 2018. Merrifield right behind them with 12 HRs. David Fletcher slugged .425 in 2020 and received MVP votes. Correa slugged .485 just last year and finished 5th in MVP voting. And those are just for AL MVP voting. Billy Hamilton in the same sentence as "MVP" is a strawman.

Ichiro won MVP in 2001 with a .457 SLG, which was almost 10% higher than the MLB average of .427.  He also should not have won MVP, in reality--he was 5th amongst hitters in WAR at 6, behind Giambi, A-Rod, Boone, and Alomar.  Giambi absolutely should have won with his 9.2 WAR, 193 wRC+, and 1.137 OPS (which is 50 points better than anything Mike Trout has done in a non-injured season)--Ichiro was at 6.0, 124, and .838.  Ichiro won MVP because he was a bit of a novelty that played the game the writers who voted at the time (many if not most of whom were probably born before 1960) liked the game to be played.  Saying he got MVP votes in 2010 is a bit disingenuous--he got 3 votes out of 1,652 votes, which is literally 0.1%.

For the purposes of this aspect of the conversation, i.e. is speed more important than power, defense is wholly irrelevant.  That eliminates Kiermaier from the conversation, who got the votes based on his historically great defensive season (he also got 10 votes out of 1,770 (0.5%).  And not for nothing, but he also had a higher SLG at .420 than league average at .415.  Also, look at some of the names who got more MVP votes that year--JD Martinez, Chris Davis, and Price Fielder.  The award was won by Josh Donaldson--do you think speed played a part there at all?

In 2018, Altuve had a .451 SLG, 10%ish better than the league average of .415.  He also only got 9 votes out of 1,770 (0.5%), some of which were undoubtedly in response to his prior two seasons where he finished 3rd and 1st in MVP voting, while slugging .531 and .547 (league average was .423 and .429 in those years)

Simmons did not get MVP votes because of his speed--after all, in 2018 he had a sprint speed of 27.1 ft/sec, which is only 0.3 ft/sec faster than Luis Arraez, the guy you adamantly don't want clogging bases in front of Buxton.  He got those votes because he had possibly the greatest defensive season in history for a SS.  Also, as you mentioned, he was 15th--that means he got 7 votes out 1,770 (0.4%).  Also, for what it's worth, he had a SLG of .417, which is essentially identical to the league average SLG.  Merrifield had 6 votes, and as I mentioned in a different post, exceeded the league average SLG ( he was at .438).

Leaving aside the chaos that was 2020, and the fact that you are technically wrong (you said David Fletcher received MVP votes--he actually received MVP vote; singular), Fletcher still had a higher SLG than league average (.425 vs .414)

Correa's .485 last year was almost 18% better than league average (.415), and was still in the Top 30 for SLG in the AL, and his 163 votes were 9.2% of the total votes.

The point I was making, which seems lost on you, is that no guy who's only offensive tool is speed will ever be anywhere near the top of an MVP list--of all the guys you listed above who got MVP votes with no/low power literally all of them had a better SLG than league average (with the exception of Ichiro in 2010).  Guys with no offensive skill other than power can show up on MVP leaderboards, and good offenses can be built around power.  Guys with no offensive skill other than speed will not show up on MVP leaderboards (or if they do, it's built off defense, which is irrelevant in a discussion of whether speed or power is more valuable to an offense), and a good offense cannot be built around speed.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Ichiro won MVP in 2001 with a .457 SLG, which was almost 10% higher than the MLB average of .427.  He also should not have won MVP, in reality--he was 5th amongst hitters in WAR at 6, behind Giambi, A-Rod, Boone, and Alomar.  Giambi absolutely should have won with his 9.2 WAR, 193 wRC+, and 1.137 OPS (which is 50 points better than anything Mike Trout has done in a non-injured season)--Ichiro was at 6.0, 124, and .838.  Ichiro won MVP because he was a bit of a novelty that played the game the writers who voted at the time (many if not most of whom were probably born before 1960) liked the game to be played.  Saying he got MVP votes in 2010 is a bit disingenuous--he got 3 votes out of 1,652 votes, which is literally 0.1%.

For the purposes of this aspect of the conversation, i.e. is speed more important than power, defense is wholly irrelevant.  That eliminates Kiermaier from the conversation, who got the votes based on his historically great defensive season (he also got 10 votes out of 1,770 (0.5%).  And not for nothing, but he also had a higher SLG at .420 than league average at .415.  Also, look at some of the names who got more MVP votes that year--JD Martinez, Chris Davis, and Price Fielder.  The award was won by Josh Donaldson--do you think speed played a part there at all?

In 2018, Altuve had a .451 SLG, 10%ish better than the league average of .415.  He also only got 9 votes out of 1,770 (0.5%), some of which were undoubtedly in response to his prior two seasons where he finished 3rd and 1st in MVP voting, while slugging .531 and .547 (league average was .423 and .429 in those years)

Simmons did not get MVP votes because of his speed--after all, in 2018 he had a sprint speed of 27.1 ft/sec, which is only 0.3 ft/sec faster than Luis Arraez, the guy you adamantly don't want clogging bases in front of Buxton.  He got those votes because he had possibly the greatest defensive season in history for a SS.  Also, as you mentioned, he was 15th--that means he got 7 votes out 1,770 (0.4%).  Also, for what it's worth, he had a SLG of .417, which is essentially identical to the league average SLG.  Merrifield had 6 votes, and as I mentioned in a different post, exceeded the league average SLG ( he was at .438).

Leaving aside the chaos that was 2020, and the fact that you are technically wrong (you said David Fletcher received MVP votes--he actually received MVP vote; singular), Fletcher still had a higher SLG than league average (.425 vs .414)

Correa's .485 last year was almost 18% better than league average (.415), and was still in the Top 30 for SLG in the AL, and his 163 votes were 9.2% of the total votes.

The point I was making, which seems lost on you, is that no guy who's only offensive tool is speed will ever be anywhere near the top of an MVP list--of all the guys you listed above who got MVP votes with no/low power literally all of them had a better SLG than league average (with the exception of Ichiro in 2010).  Guys with no offensive skill other than power can show up on MVP leaderboards, and good offenses can be built around power.  Guys with no offensive skill other than speed will not show up on MVP leaderboards (or if they do, it's built off defense, which is irrelevant in a discussion of whether speed or power is more valuable to an offense), and a good offense cannot be built around speed.

None of those guys got a single MVP vote simply for their power. That was your argument when you brought up Hamilton. You turned a reasonable claim of Buxton's speed being a good fit at the top of the lineup (by another poster, not me in this case) and turned it into a claim that the only tool that poster cared about was his speed and ignored the actual stats they put on their post and what they were trying to say by bringing up Hamilton. You created a strawman by claiming anyone on this entire thread has said the only tool they care about is Buxton's speed. Nobody has said that. In fact I've over and over again explained how I'm balancing his speed and power tools in where I want him in the lineup. But you chose to compare him to a bad baseball player who is only fast as if that's something anyone was saying about Buxton. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Who will be on first base after their AB more Arraez or Jeffers? You're changing between the stats you want to use regarding being on first. Earlier you said it'd be 5 ABs a month in Arraez's favor so that's what I've contended with. I've given you the breakdown in the difference of XBHs between Buxton, Correa, and Polanco. You've conveniently ignored all of that. I've given you a season in which Buxton hits 50 HRs, 35 2Bs, and 10 3Bs. That'd be 95 XBHs for Buxton. There have only been 15 instances in the entirety of baseball history where a guy had 100 XBHs in a season so I'm giving you quite the season for Buxton. And he's still only getting 3-5 more extra base hits a month than Correa or Polanco.

I want to optimize the lineup, not just Buxton, for the entirety of the season. I will sacrifice those 3-5 extra base hit results each month in the name of the faster player being in front of multiple other players with the best chance to hit for extra base hits since he can do the most damage on their XBHs on the base paths. If the next best hitters on the team weren't Correa and Polanco I'd feel different. But if they're each getting 65 XBHs this year I'm taking Buxton in front of them over them in front of Buxton because he can take advantage of those better than they can take advantage of his 95 in his "one of the greatest seasons in the history of baseball" season I'm giving you.

Arraez will definitely be on first more than Jeffers--and you're saying that's bad?  You would rather the best hitter on the team get fewer PAs with runners on?  Interesting strategy Cotton.

I'm not ignoring your Buxton, Correa, Polanco XBH breakdown--I'm not addressing it because it's largely irrelevant.  As I've pointed out, XBH are most valuable when baserunners are slow rather than fast.  It doesn't matter who the baserunner is, they will always score on a HR or 3B.  Therefore, the only value is having Correa and Polanco hitting 2Bs behind Buxton is if Buxton is on first (Buxton is the Twin least likely to end a PA on first as opposed to second, third, or hitting a HR)--most players score from second on 2B, not all the time, but it's pretty rare for a runner on second to not score on a 2B.  As such, if we assume that both Correa and Polanco get 30 2Bs, which is about 5% of their PAs, and give Buxton a 20% occurrence of being on first, it means that only 1% of the time will either Polanco or Correa hit a double when Buxton is on first--that's literally once a month.

If we then carry through to the next batter, and assume that 35% of the time Buxton will no longer being first (meaning that we retain the 5% chance of a double from Polanco/Correa, but now only a 13% chance Buxton is on first), that's an additional 0.7% of the time a double is hit while Buxton is on first.  That of course also doesn't include instances of the inning ending before both Polanco and Correa hit, or Buxton advancing to second on a SB or groundout, so in reality the number is lower by just a little bit.  So having Polanco and Correa hitting XBH behind Buxton provides an opportunity to take advantage of his speed at most 2x a month (there's no guarantee a double moves Buxton from first to home--if it's a bloop hit to left field with a fielder shaded to center, a hustling Correa/Polanco might get to second, since the fielder is moving away from the base when getting the ball, but would be moving towards home to throw out Buxton).

I agree with you that I want to maximize the lineup for the whole team, not just Buxton.  That means that we don't try and maximize Buxton's unique skills unless they actually provide a lift to the offense.  Since the maximization of Buxton's speed skill requires a reduction in the impact of his instances of hitting with men on base, there is clearly a trade-off.  I contend that power is more valuable than speed, therefore I want to maximize power over speed when I can't do both.

[Cap'n Piranha]

46 minutes ago, RpR said:

Observation:

Buxton just hit his first grand slam of the year.?

That's too bad.  Had the bases been empty, Byron could have hit a single and then used his speed to manufacture a run.  Opportunity wasted.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Arraez will definitely be on first more than Jeffers--and you're saying that's bad?  You would rather the best hitter on the team get fewer PAs with runners on?  Interesting strategy Cotton.

I'm not ignoring your Buxton, Correa, Polanco XBH breakdown--I'm not addressing it because it's largely irrelevant.  As I've pointed out, XBH are most valuable when baserunners are slow rather than fast.  It doesn't matter who the baserunner is, they will always score on a HR or 3B.  Therefore, the only value is having Correa and Polanco hitting 2Bs behind Buxton is if Buxton is on first (Buxton is the Twin least likely to end a PA on first as opposed to second, third, or hitting a HR)--most players score from second on 2B, not all the time, but it's pretty rare for a runner on second to not score on a 2B.  As such, if we assume that both Correa and Polanco get 30 2Bs, which is about 5% of their PAs, and give Buxton a 20% occurrence of being on first, it means that only 1% of the time will either Polanco or Correa hit a double when Buxton is on first--that's literally once a month.

If we then carry through to the next batter, and assume that 35% of the time Buxton will no longer being first (meaning that we retain the 5% chance of a double from Polanco/Correa, but now only a 13% chance Buxton is on first), that's an additional 0.7% of the time a double is hit while Buxton is on first.  That of course also doesn't include instances of the inning ending before both Polanco and Correa hit, or Buxton advancing to second on a SB or groundout, so in reality the number is lower by just a little bit.  So having Polanco and Correa hitting XBH behind Buxton provides an opportunity to take advantage of his speed at most 2x a month (there's no guarantee a double moves Buxton from first to home--if it's a bloop hit to left field with a fielder shaded to center, a hustling Correa/Polanco might get to second, since the fielder is moving away from the base when getting the ball, but would be moving towards home to throw out Buxton).

I agree with you that I want to maximize the lineup for the whole team, not just Buxton.  That means that we don't try and maximize Buxton's unique skills unless they actually provide a lift to the offense.  Since the maximization of Buxton's speed skill requires a reduction in the impact of his instances of hitting with men on base, there is clearly a trade-off.  I contend that power is more valuable than speed, therefore I want to maximize power over speed when I can't do both.

Buxton being on 2nd doesn't change the fact that his speed is still a tool. I've compared their XBHs because that's been your argument for hitting Buxton lower. If his XBHs are the reason to hit him lower then the fact that even in an historic year him only getting 5 more a month should be weighted against the differences in the rest of the ABs if they're switched in the order. That's my point. Buxton needs to have one of the 20 greatest XBH seasons of all time to get even 5 more XBHs a month than those 2. But he can take advantage of everything else those guys do with the bat while they can't take advantage of the other things he does. 

You want to hit Buxton in front of the decline part of the order. That means fewer chances to take advantage of his speed to take advantage of 5 extra XBHs a month in the hope that he has what 5 extra runners on during those ABs? So they score an extra 5 runs a month from those 5 XBHs? I want him in front of the peak of the order so that any single to the OF scores a run with him on 2nd. He takes 3rd on almost any single to center or right and is able to score on the sac flies from the weaker part of the order. He scores on more doubles than anyone one else on the team that Polanco and Correa hit. He steals 2nd and puts himself in scoring position in front of Arraez, Polanco, or Correa (I'm intrigued by the Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Arraez lineup Rocco has been running out lately, even if it means nothing in terms of his regular season plans) so he's able to score on a single that basically nobody else on the team would score on because they'd still be on first.

So, again, I'll go with maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without hitting a HR over maximizing the 50 times he does hit a HR (I'm taking the under on him hitting 50 bombs, by the way). His speed changes things every time he's on base. His power changes things only when he hits a HR (since you've shown that his doubles and triples have minimal impact beyond anyone else's doubles and triples). And since there's no reason to think he'll hit drastically more 2Bs than Correa or Polanco the only real difference are HRs and 3Bs. I'm not taking 3Bs into consideration at all as they're mostly results of guys with Buxton's type speed (and that means he needs the guy in front of him to be fast enough to score if there was someone on 1st for that AB) or defenders misplaying balls. So really it's the HRs. So there's a 20 AB difference between peak Buxton and regular expectations for Correa and Polanco. I'd rather take advantage of the havoc Buxton can cause on the bases and the extra attention paid to him by pitchers while they're facing Correa and Polanco with him on base than try to add a few extra runners on base in front of his 20 extra HRs.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

That's too bad.  Had the bases been empty, Byron could have hit a single and then used his speed to manufacture a run.  Opportunity wasted.

Crazy that it's even possible to have runners on base in front of the leadoff hitting Buxton...Should've had him 2 spots lower in the order so he didn't even get to hit that inning since Polanco got out in the next AB. That solo HR from the 3 spot would've been much better. Opportunity wasted.

[Cap'n Piranha]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

None of those guys got a single MVP vote simply for their power. That was your argument when you brought up Hamilton. You turned a reasonable claim of Buxton's speed being a good fit at the top of the lineup (by another poster, not me in this case) and turned it into a claim that the only tool that poster cared about was his speed and ignored the actual stats they put on their post and what they were trying to say by bringing up Hamilton. You created a strawman by claiming anyone on this entire thread has said the only tool they care about is Buxton's speed. Nobody has said that. In fact I've over and over again explained how I'm balancing his speed and power tools in where I want him in the lineup. But you chose to compare him to a bad baseball player who is only fast as if that's something anyone was saying about Buxton. 

That was not at all my argument when I brought up Hamilton.  My argument was that Byron is an MVP level player due to his combination of speed and power.  Not all MVP level players have that same combo--some are much more power based, none are much more speed based.  Power is more valuable than speed--that is the only point I was attempting to make.  And if power is more valuable than speed, why would we seek to reduce the impact of Buxton's power in pursuit of increasing the value of a less valuable skill?

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 3/28/2022 at 10:45 AM, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the 9th hole hitter's speed is as important if it's not someone like Arraez. I don't want Buxton hitting directly behind Arraez who gets on base at a .375 clip while hitting for minimum power so is mostly on first when he reaches as opposed to someone like Jeffers who gets on base at a .285 clip but hits for more power so is less likely to be on first really slowing Buck down. There's always going to be someone slower than Buck in front of him, but I'd rather have that slow guy on first less often. I think Arraez after Buxton frees up Buxton to do a lot more with his speed while the Twins have Polanco and Correa to be the XBH guys driving in Buxton and Arraez. 

If the Twins didn't have Polanco and Correa it'd be a different story (and the offense would be so incredibly bad), but with those 2 (and Kirilloff who I think will end up in the 5 spot for most of the year) behind Buxton and Arraez I think it produces more runs. If Buxton reaches and Arraez doesn't Buxton is still scoring from first on a double from Correa or Polanco. If Buxton doesn't reach, but Arraez does you're not really keeping Correa or Polanco from turning a single into a double or a double into a triple as they aren't that kind of fast, but you still have a guy on if one of them pops one into the seats.

The #9 hole hitter is easy to me - it's Kepler.  Good speed, decent OBP, occasional power, low average. Don't want him hitting in the top 6 because his low batting average hurts us from capitalizing on run scoring opportunities.  Since we want to tur over the lineup to the top 3 or 4 with men on base, he's the best asset in the 9 hole. 

[chpettit19]

32 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

That was not at all my argument when I brought up Hamilton.  My argument was that Byron is an MVP level player due to his combination of speed and power.  Not all MVP level players have that same combo--some are much more power based, none are much more speed based.  Power is more valuable than speed--that is the only point I was attempting to make.  And if power is more valuable than speed, why would we seek to reduce the impact of Buxton's power in pursuit of increasing the value of a less valuable skill?

Because I don't think hitting leadoff is reducing the impact of his power the way you do in terms of maximizing the lineup. I mean you got all sarcastic about him hitting a grand slam today even though he hit it from the leadoff spot. But I don't see him hitting leadoff reducing his power impact because the difference between Buxton's power and the power of the other guys in the lineup is far, far, far smaller than the difference between his speed and the speed of the other guys in the lineup. Unless you disagree that 3Bs are more or less too random to really count on or that he's likely to hit mid-30s doubles and so are Correa and Polanco I don't see the huge difference in impact from the maybe 20 extra HRs he hits than them. 

How would you have set up the Braves lineup with Acuna, Albies, and Freeman? How much better do you think that 3 all-star lineup would've been if they'd put Acuna 3rd instead of leadoff considering he slugs better than both Freeman and Albies?

[Cap'n Piranha]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Buxton being on 2nd doesn't change the fact that his speed is still a tool. I've compared their XBHs because that's been your argument for hitting Buxton lower. If his XBHs are the reason to hit him lower then the fact that even in an historic year him only getting 5 more a month should be weighted against the differences in the rest of the ABs if they're switched in the order. That's my point. Buxton needs to have one of the 20 greatest XBH seasons of all time to get even 5 more XBHs a month than those 2. But he can take advantage of everything else those guys do with the bat while they can't take advantage of the other things he does. 

You want to hit Buxton in front of the decline part of the order. That means fewer chances to take advantage of his speed to take advantage of 5 extra XBHs a month in the hope that he has what 5 extra runners on during those ABs? So they score an extra 5 runs a month from those 5 XBHs? I want him in front of the peak of the order so that any single to the OF scores a run with him on 2nd. He takes 3rd on almost any single to center or right and is able to score on the sac flies from the weaker part of the order. He scores on more doubles than anyone one else on the team that Polanco and Correa hit. He steals 2nd and puts himself in scoring position in front of Arraez, Polanco, or Correa (I'm intrigued by the Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Arraez lineup Rocco has been running out lately, even if it means nothing in terms of his regular season plans) so he's able to score on a single that basically nobody else on the team would score on because they'd still be on first.

So, again, I'll go with maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without hitting a HR over maximizing the 50 times he does hit a HR (I'm taking the under on him hitting 50 bombs, by the way). His speed changes things every time he's on base. His power changes things only when he hits a HR (since you've shown that his doubles and triples have minimal impact beyond anyone else's doubles and triples). And since there's no reason to think he'll hit drastically more 2Bs than Correa or Polanco the only real difference are HRs and 3Bs. I'm not taking 3Bs into consideration at all as they're mostly results of guys with Buxton's type speed (and that means he needs the guy in front of him to be fast enough to score if there was someone on 1st for that AB) or defenders misplaying balls. So really it's the HRs. So there's a 20 AB difference between peak Buxton and regular expectations for Correa and Polanco. I'd rather take advantage of the havoc Buxton can cause on the bases and the extra attention paid to him by pitchers while they're facing Correa and Polanco with him on base than try to add a few extra runners on base in front of his 20 extra HRs.

It does reduce the impact of his speed, to a degree.  It certainly reduces the impact of his speed when a guy behind him hits an XBH.  I don't know if there is any data around it, but I bet 99% of runners on second score on an XBH, if not more.  I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm arguing Buxton batting lower because of Correa and Polanco's XBH ability.  Literally never said that--I said I want Buxton lower in the order so he has more PAs with runners on.  If he bats leadoff, 20-25% of his PAs are with the bases empty.  If 2 out of Jeffers/Urshela/Sanchez bat 8 and 9, there is a further 49% chance neither of those guys get on base, as opposed to hitting behind Arraez and Polanco, where it's only a 41% chance.

A further point of mine around this is that Buxton, because of his speed, does not need as much help to score as a slower player does.  Slower players are less likely to steal a base, take an extra base, or move up on outs--as such, they are more reliant on hitters moving them along in order to score.  As such, taking your guy who needs the least help from other hitters to score, and giving him the most help from other hitters to score is completely backwards

As a result of that, I don't care that much about getting Buxton on second for a Polanco/Correa single, because that is also a pretty rare occurrence (assume Buxton lands on second in 7.5% of his PAs, and Polanco/Correa hit a single in 17% of their PAs--equivalent of 1 single every 6 PAs--that means in only 1.3% of PAs would the hitter behind Buxton hit a single).  Add in the 1.7% of the time Buxton is on first and either Polanco or Correa hits a double, then in only 4% of Polanco/Correa PA's does Buxton's speed actually potentially matter (what if Buxton slips rounding a base?  What if he has to hold up to see if the ball is caught?  What if he gets gunned down at the plate?  What if the 3B coach holds him up because there are no outs in the inning?  What if the fielder is not in a position to get an out/throw out the runner at second, but is in position to throw out Buxton at home?)

Your statement about maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without a homer over maximizing his HRs is just silly to me--if Buxton on first gets a double from one of the two guys behind him 1.7% when those guys hit doubles at a 5% rate (30/yr), even reducing that to 20/yr for the two guys behind him drops that to only 1%--the result is one extra instance every 140 PAs, so 4-5x a year.  If you also reduce the incidence of single from one every 6 PAs to one every 7, the chances of a single from either of the two players behind Buxton when he's on second is 1.8% instead of 2.3%, so one extra instance every 200 PAs, or 3-4x a year.  What you're saying is you want to reduce the runner on base rate for Buxton's 40 HRs from 59% to 51% (two guys with .300 OBP will result in both on 9% of the time, one but not both on 42% of the time, and neither on 49%.  a guy with a .375 OBP--Arraez--and one with a .350 OBP--Polanco--will get both on 13% of the time, one but not both 46% of the time, and neither 41% of the time); apply that to HRs, and Buxton's HRs are worth 5 more runs. 

So we're comparing 5 more runs, just from HRs, to the potential of 7-8 more runs from Buxton having a better hitter behind him when he's on first and a double is hit, or second and a single is hit.  This also ignores that at least 15% of those instances will have a slow runner on first in front of Buxton (whether Urshela/Jeffers/Sanchez), so in reality it's 6-7 more instances a year, and even if Buxton capitalizes on those 2 out 3 times, that's 4 runs.

[chpettit19]

19 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It does reduce the impact of his speed, to a degree.  It certainly reduces the impact of his speed when a guy behind him hits an XBH.  I don't know if there is any data around it, but I bet 99% of runners on second score on an XBH, if not more.  I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm arguing Buxton batting lower because of Correa and Polanco's XBH ability.  Literally never said that--I said I want Buxton lower in the order so he has more PAs with runners on.  If he bats leadoff, 20-25% of his PAs are with the bases empty.  If 2 out of Jeffers/Urshela/Sanchez bat 8 and 9, there is a further 49% chance neither of those guys get on base, as opposed to hitting behind Arraez and Polanco, where it's only a 41% chance.

A further point of mine around this is that Buxton, because of his speed, does not need as much help to score as a slower player does.  Slower players are less likely to steal a base, take an extra base, or move up on outs--as such, they are more reliant on hitters moving them along in order to score.  As such, taking your guy who needs the least help from other hitters to score, and giving him the most help from other hitters to score is completely backwards

As a result of that, I don't care that much about getting Buxton on second for a Polanco/Correa single, because that is also a pretty rare occurrence (assume Buxton lands on second in 7.5% of his PAs, and Polanco/Correa hit a single in 17% of their PAs--equivalent of 1 single every 6 PAs--that means in only 1.3% of PAs would the hitter behind Buxton hit a single).  Add in the 1.7% of the time Buxton is on first and either Polanco or Correa hits a double, then in only 4% of Polanco/Correa PA's does Buxton's speed actually potentially matter (what if Buxton slips rounding a base?  What if he has to hold up to see if the ball is caught?  What if he gets gunned down at the plate?  What if the 3B coach holds him up because there are no outs in the inning?  What if the fielder is not in a position to get an out/throw out the runner at second, but is in position to throw out Buxton at home?)

Your statement about maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without a homer over maximizing his HRs is just silly to me--if Buxton on first gets a double from one of the two guys behind him 1.7% when those guys hit doubles at a 5% rate (30/yr), even reducing that to 20/yr for the two guys behind him drops that to only 1%--the result is one extra instance every 140 PAs, so 4-5x a year.  If you also reduce the incidence of single from one every 6 PAs to one every 7, the chances of a single from either of the two players behind Buxton when he's on second is 1.8% instead of 2.3%, so one extra instance every 200 PAs, or 3-4x a year.  What you're saying is you want to reduce the runner on base rate for Buxton's 40 HRs from 59% to 51% (two guys with .300 OBP will result in both on 9% of the time, one but not both on 42% of the time, and neither on 49%.  a guy with a .375 OBP--Arraez--and one with a .350 OBP--Polanco--will get both on 13% of the time, one but not both 46% of the time, and neither 41% of the time); apply that to HRs, and Buxton's HRs are worth 5 more runs. 

So we're comparing 5 more runs, just from HRs, to the potential of 7-8 more runs from Buxton having a better hitter behind him when he's on first and a double is hit, or second and a single is hit.  This also ignores that at least 15% of those instances will have a slow runner on first in front of Buxton (whether Urshela/Jeffers/Sanchez), so in reality it's 6-7 more instances a year, and even if Buxton capitalizes on those 2 out 3 times, that's 4 runs.

I notice that the stats for my side of things equal "potential" but you're guaranteeing 5 more runs for the stats on your side. Both are just percentage chances. But 1 is the potential for 7-8 runs and the other is potential for 5 more runs.

I am reducing the runner on base rate for Buxton, yes. But you're ignoring that the 59% chance just switches to Correa instead if Arraez and Polanco are hitting in front of him so his 30 HRs compared to Buxton's 40 get the boost while also having the boost of having Buxton on base during some of the ABs that Correa doesn't hit a HR. So you're really looking to boost Buxton's 10 extra HRs. That's my point. You're all amped up about Buxton's HRs as if he's the only power hitter on the team. That's my entire point. The Twins have 4 or 5 other guys who are all expected to hit at least 30 HRs if healthy. Buxton's HR advantage over his teammates isn't as big as his speed advantage. If the Twins lacked for other power hitters I'd move him down. They don't. The entire team is built to slug outside of Arraez and Gordon. You're hoping for the right timing on those 10 extra HRs to gain 5 more runs on them. I'm hoping for every ball put in play while Buxton is on base to lead to extra bases and runs. Even if it's only your 5 verse my 7-8 I'll take my 7-8.

[Linus]

That was fun. I would bat him lead off to get as many at bats as possible. After the first inning you don’t know what base runner situation will be anyway. 

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

It does reduce the impact of his speed, to a degree.  It certainly reduces the impact of his speed when a guy behind him hits an XBH.  I don't know if there is any data around it, but I bet 99% of runners on second score on an XBH, if not more.  I don't know where you're getting the idea that I'm arguing Buxton batting lower because of Correa and Polanco's XBH ability.  Literally never said that--I said I want Buxton lower in the order so he has more PAs with runners on.  If he bats leadoff, 20-25% of his PAs are with the bases empty.  If 2 out of Jeffers/Urshela/Sanchez bat 8 and 9, there is a further 49% chance neither of those guys get on base, as opposed to hitting behind Arraez and Polanco, where it's only a 41% chance.

A further point of mine around this is that Buxton, because of his speed, does not need as much help to score as a slower player does.  Slower players are less likely to steal a base, take an extra base, or move up on outs--as such, they are more reliant on hitters moving them along in order to score.  As such, taking your guy who needs the least help from other hitters to score, and giving him the most help from other hitters to score is completely backwards

As a result of that, I don't care that much about getting Buxton on second for a Polanco/Correa single, because that is also a pretty rare occurrence (assume Buxton lands on second in 7.5% of his PAs, and Polanco/Correa hit a single in 17% of their PAs--equivalent of 1 single every 6 PAs--that means in only 1.3% of PAs would the hitter behind Buxton hit a single).  Add in the 1.7% of the time Buxton is on first and either Polanco or Correa hits a double, then in only 4% of Polanco/Correa PA's does Buxton's speed actually potentially matter (what if Buxton slips rounding a base?  What if he has to hold up to see if the ball is caught?  What if he gets gunned down at the plate?  What if the 3B coach holds him up because there are no outs in the inning?  What if the fielder is not in a position to get an out/throw out the runner at second, but is in position to throw out Buxton at home?)

Your statement about maximizing the 150+ times he reaches base without a homer over maximizing his HRs is just silly to me--if Buxton on first gets a double from one of the two guys behind him 1.7% when those guys hit doubles at a 5% rate (30/yr), even reducing that to 20/yr for the two guys behind him drops that to only 1%--the result is one extra instance every 140 PAs, so 4-5x a year.  If you also reduce the incidence of single from one every 6 PAs to one every 7, the chances of a single from either of the two players behind Buxton when he's on second is 1.8% instead of 2.3%, so one extra instance every 200 PAs, or 3-4x a year.  What you're saying is you want to reduce the runner on base rate for Buxton's 40 HRs from 59% to 51% (two guys with .300 OBP will result in both on 9% of the time, one but not both on 42% of the time, and neither on 49%.  a guy with a .375 OBP--Arraez--and one with a .350 OBP--Polanco--will get both on 13% of the time, one but not both 46% of the time, and neither 41% of the time); apply that to HRs, and Buxton's HRs are worth 5 more runs. 

So we're comparing 5 more runs, just from HRs, to the potential of 7-8 more runs from Buxton having a better hitter behind him when he's on first and a double is hit, or second and a single is hit.  This also ignores that at least 15% of those instances will have a slow runner on first in front of Buxton (whether Urshela/Jeffers/Sanchez), so in reality it's 6-7 more instances a year, and even if Buxton capitalizes on those 2 out 3 times, that's 4 runs.

If Buxton gets 5 runs for 40 HRs hitting behind Arraez and Polanco how many does Correa get for hitting 30 behind Arraez and Polanco? My quick math says it's about 4 runs. And you're suggesting Buxton can get 4-8 runs by hitting in front of Polanco and Correa. So to gain 1 extra run by Buxton being behind Arraez and Polanco instead of Correa being behind Arraez and Polanco you want to sacrifice 4-8 runs. This is my entire point. Buxton's HR's aren't that much more than Correa or Polanco's. 

[stringer bell]

Maybe the topic can be retitled? It’s not early anymore. Anyway, I just checked today’s box score and some things stood out. Against a good Braves lineup, Archer gave up 3 runs in 2 1/3 innings. Jeffers has homered in consecutive games, Buxton and Correa are READY. Moran may have pitched himself out of a bullpen spot. And Kyle Garlick and his competition (Brent Rooker) have combined for zero hits in spring training games. 

[mike8791]

Like Stringer Bell said: let's get back on track here.  I'm still worried about the pen.  Moran should be released.  Alcala's proclivity for the HR ball has continued this spring.  This is unacceptable for a late-inning reliever.  Duran has earned a spot in the pen with an outstanding ST.  Compared to the Sox, our BP looks overmatched, even with trade of Kimbrel and injury to Crochet.  Falvey's dumpster diving for minor leaguers has left us with a middlin' pen at best.  And we won't even get started on the rotation.  Archer's outing today gives little cause for comfort!.   How can any responsible FO make a big splash with Correa yet fail to solidify a rotation that was weak even after Gray.  Looks like we're down to a hope and a prayer!

[stringer bell]

I just saw video of the exhibition game. It looks like the wind was blowing out to center which helped both of the back-to-back homers by Correa and Buxton. It might explain the four homers hit by Atlanta, as well. When the wind is blowing out, the Florida ballparks get pretty small. 

[shortround81]

I've noticed that forums don't like honest and/or have humorous observations about the team

[dougd]

I enjoyed the long argument about whether Buxton should bat first. A lot of good points by both. My takeaway is this: 

for years we were hoping that Buxton would do well batting leadoff, seemingly possibly the prototypical modern day leadoff hitter, but whether it was confidence or experience or whatever, he did not do well there.  Now I want him to get as many at bats as possible, and it does seem better to bat him in front of Correa.

[RpR]

On 3/30/2022 at 2:53 PM, chpettit19 said:

Crazy that it's even possible to have runners on base in front of the leadoff hitting Buxton...Should've had him 2 spots lower in the order so he didn't even get to hit that inning since Polanco got out in the next AB. That solo HR from the 3 spot would've been much better. Opportunity wasted.

So, the six, seven, eight and number nine batters should just be an automatic out and not go to bat, if it is crazy for the lead batter to have men on base?

Why do they bother??

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, RpR said:

So, the six, seven, eight and number nine batters should just be an automatic out and not go to bat, if it is crazy for the lead batter to have men on base?

Why do they bother??

That was a sarcastic response based on a lot of back and forth earlier, not an actual thought.

[wabene]

Welp the Smeltz really deltz today! Good to see, not on the 40, but if there was one was add to the 40, (nooooooooCave), I'd like to see Da Smeltz have some success.