How Joe Ryan’s Projected Arbitration Salary Changes His Trade Market

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last few years making payroll decisions that require a calculator, a spreadsheet, and (probably) a small support group. The next one is right around the corner, as Joe Ryan presents an interesting problem for Jeremy Zoll and the front office this winter.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Ryan to earn approximately $9.6 million through arbitration for the 2027 season. That's a significant raise from the $6.2 million he earned in 2025, but in the current starting pitching market, it might also qualify as something Twins fans haven't seen enough of lately: a bargain. The question is whether that bargain makes Ryan more valuable to the Twins or more attractive to other teams. It should do both, of course, but will it do one more than the other? And if so, what action will that prompt from the team?

Ryan Might Be One of the Best Starters on the Market

The 2026-27 free-agent starting pitching class isn't exactly overflowing with top-of-the-rotation options. The current top five starting pitchers on the market are probably:

1. LHP Tarik Skubal
2. LHP Trevor Rogers
3. RHP Freddy Peralta
4. RHP Michael King
5. RHP Kevin Gausman

Ryan isn't part of that free-agent group, because he's under team control through arbitration. But if he were available alongside those pitchers, there's a reasonable argument that he'd rank second on the entire market. At worst, he would be difficult to place lower than fifth.

That's important, because the pitchers ahead of him are going to cost significantly more than $10 million. Skubal will land a massive multi-year contract; it could be more than $400 million. Peralta, King, Rogers and Gausman will have plenty of teams interested in their services, and although only Rogers is likely to sniff a nine-figure deal, any of the four might earn $20 million per year or more.

Ryan doesn't come with such a burdensome price tag. A team could acquire him and pay roughly $10 million for one season, without committing to four, five or six years on a free-agent contract. If a trade suitor believes Ryan is one of the best starting pitchers available this winter, paying him $9.6 million for 2027 could look remarkably inexpensive. One way or another, Zoll's phone will buzz.

The Twins Would Be Selling a Valuable Asset

This is where the Ryan conversation becomes complicated. The Twins don't need to trade Ryan. They might actually have a very good reason to keep him. Minnesota's rotation faces plenty of questions heading into 2027. There are young arms who could emerge, but there are also durability questions, guys who are more project than prospect, and plenty of uncertainty.

Ryan is the known commodity. He's been one of the organization's most reliable starters, and his ability to miss bats isn't easily replaced internally. FanGraphs pegs his value at more than $17 million in every big-league season since his rookie year, and his strikeout skills are a huge part of that.

The Twins can't simply trade Ryan because another team is willing to offer a couple of prospects. He's a linchpin of their rotation. Unless they see trouble under the hood, they should only deal him if they get back a package that bolsters them in the present, as well as the future.

As argued previously, that kind of value might just not be there. His second-half performances have been a problem, which is a reason for the Twins to consider moving him but also a drag on the value teams might give up to get him. Again, though, the money matters—and it works in the team's favor, either way.

The $9.6 Million Question

Imagine you're a team that needs starting pitching. You can sign one of the top free agents and give that pitcher a multi-year contract worth anywhere from $19 million to $35 million per season. Then, you have to keep your fingers crossed that he stays healthy and performs at a high level for the life of the contract. Alternatively, you can trade prospects for Ryan and pay him less than $10 million for 2027. 

The latter option suddenly looks pretty appealing. Ryan's projected arbitration salary doesn't make him cheap in a vacuum. But baseball contracts don't exist in a vacuum. They exist in comparison to the alternatives, and the alternatives are expensive. Ryan's second halves are worrisome, but many of the other top starters available come with some yellow flags of their own. Most teams would rather have a guy who wears down every summer and battles nagging leg issues than one who's already wearing two elbow scars or has shoulder soreness all over his medical history.

So, Should the Twins Trade Him?

This is where things get uncomfortable. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2027, keeping Ryan makes a lot of sense. If they're more interested in continuing to reshape the roster around a younger core, Ryan might be one of the best players to cash in. The projected $9.6 million salary makes that decision harder, not easier. If Ryan were projected to make $20 million, teams might be less aggressive in trade talks. If the free-agent market were loaded with comparable starters, his trade value might also be lower.

Instead, Minnesota has a starting pitcher who could arguably rank near the top of the free-agent class and cost less than half what some comparable hurlers will. That's a pretty attractive asset. The Twins have to determine whether that asset is more valuable on the mound or as a piece to acquire others—which comes down to what those other pieces turn out to be.

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Does Ryan’s projected arbitration salary make him a more attractive trade candidate? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Linus]

I’m surprised at that projected arbitration amount. At that figure Joe still has some surplus value. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

[Mike Sixel]

Not even a little. Teams either think he's really good still, or the they don't. The price is tiny. 

[SE23]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

A deal with Miami involving Xavier Edwards might be worth exploring.

[SE23]

13 minutes ago, SE23 said:

A deal with Miami involving Xavier Edwards might be worth exploring.

Or with the Rays for Yandy Diaz

[Brandon]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

Correcting your last statement. There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless THERE IS AN OVERPAY for the return.  There is no other reason to trade him as he will be better than Ober next year.  Ober is the one to trade for fair value.  

Also wanted to say the author of this article did a good job writing it and not making a click bate article.  This one was fun to read.  

[IndianaTwin]

Does Peralta provide a reference point? Last offseason the Brewers traded an $8M Peralta with one year of control for Brandon Sproat, who was well-regarded and who turned in a relatively underwhelming 22 starts as a 26-year-old rookie, and Jett Williams, also well-regarded at the time but who has fallen to a No. 10 ranking in the Brewers system. 

Then in July, the Mets traded an underwhelming Peralta for guys who are now ranked 10, 15 and 16 in the Mets system. If the systems were parallel, that would be like trading for Carson Tinney, Brandon Winokur and Charlee Soto. 

So how much less did the Mets get for him for two months compared to what they gave up, ostensibly for a full season, in the offseason? Recognize that they could have gotten more for him in July if he hadn’t stunk for four months.

I’m not an expert on Mets and Brewers prospects, but it doesn’t seem like he fell thaaaaat far in value from the offseason to July. 

Aside from the fact that moving him would save me from approximately 94 “trade Joe Ryan” articles on TD, I’d rather roll the dice, improve the team elsewhere and strive to compete. 

[DJL44]

Joe Ryan might be the bellwether for the offseason. If they sell Ryan, they’re looking at 2028 and should trade everyone over 30. If not, they need to spend $30M to add talent to compete in 2027.

[bean5302]

The systems aren't parallel, and it's just as easy to name guys who fans aren't so excited about like:

Gabriel Gonzalez + Brett Renfrow + Marco Raya.

That said, Peralta was coming off a much better season than Joe Ryan and Peralta was cheaper to boot.

[darin617]

The Twins blew their chance to cash in on Jeffers and it sure doesn't seem like Ryan wants to stay either. So cash in before he goes into his second half of the season slump.

[ashbury]

I expect every MLB front office is capable of estimating a player's arbitration salary a year or so out, so Ryan's trade value isn't suddenly affected by this.  It's affected by there being only a year of team control before a market-correct salary has to be offered, compared to an additional third of a season plus a post-season a couple of months ago.

[Nashvilletwin]

What would we want for Ryan?

Let me give it a shot.

At least one player whom we are sure can be a reasonably significant contributor starting in ‘28 and ideally be under control through at least ‘30.

Anything more would be gravy at this point and it’s unclear we could get even that. The big value return ship has sailed (unless we don’t trade him until the deadline - whenever that is next year - and he is fantastic up to that point).

Ok, given that, what position(s) would we target? We are long outfielders and seem set at 3B, SS, and 2B (remember, Houston will be up in ‘27 too).  If we re-sign Jeffers, catcher should be off the table.

That leaves 1B, SP, and RP.  Hard to see us trading Ryan for a reliever. 1B also just seems like a long shot.

Our best bet is a top 100 SP prospect who’s in AA or AAA and who will be up in ‘28 with almost certainty. We might be able to get that.

If we can get that in the off-season, Zoll should hit the bid.  If not, roll the dice and see what things look like approaching the deadline.  Btw, the same reasoning applies to Lopez. 

[LastOnePicked]

Selling this low on Joe Ryan would be monumentally stupid - which is why I'm increasingly convinced the Twins will do it.

Last offseason was the time to rebuild, and they chose not to. So, this offseason is the time to reload. They might only be two relievers and a 1B away from a realistic WC run.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Joe Ryan might be the bellwether for the offseason. If they sell Ryan, they’re looking at 2028 and should trade everyone over 30. If not, they need to spend $30M to add talent to compete in 2027.

We know what Tommy boy wants. 

[saviking]

I would keep Ryan. If there is a lockout that went several months that would take care of the wearing down in the second half of the season. 

If we are competitive maybe he helps us make the playoffs and if we aren't and Ryan hold up, we can still get something for him at the trade deadline. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Brandon said:

Correcting your last statement. There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless THERE IS AN OVERPAY for the return.  There is no other reason to trade him as he will be better than Ober next year.  Ober is the one to trade for fair value.  

Also wanted to say the author of this article did a good job writing it and not making a click bate article.  This one was fun to read.  

Perhaps I needed to be more clear. Any trade of Joe Ryan should be a net improvement for the Twins. Maybe a team overpays. I actually do not have any trades that seem realistic. 

Agree it is a good article.

[darin617]

Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Dean Kremer will all be free agents after 2027 if there is a season.

Ober and Kremer are expendable and neither have a good trade value. Pablo seems to be happy here and Ryan would have the highest trade value and I don't think he wants to stay here. The Twins also have many in house options to fill our the rotation.

[JADBP]

7 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

What would we want for Ryan?

Let me give it a shot.

At least one player whom we are sure can be a reasonably significant contributor starting in ‘28 and ideally be under control through at least ‘30.

Anything more would be gravy at this point and it’s unclear we could get even that. The big value return ship has sailed (unless we don’t trade him until the deadline - whenever that is next year - and he is fantastic up to that point).

Ok, given that, what position(s) would we target? We are long outfielders and seem set at 3B, SS, and 2B (remember, Houston will be up in ‘27 too).  If we re-sign Jeffers, catcher should be off the table.

That leaves 1B, SP, and RP.  Hard to see us trading Ryan for a reliever. 1B also just seems like a long shot.

Our best bet is a top 100 SP prospect who’s in AA or AAA and who will be up in ‘28 with almost certainty. We might be able to get that.

If we can get that in the off-season, Zoll should hit the bid.  If not, roll the dice and see what things look like approaching the deadline.  Btw, the same reasoning applies to Lopez. 

I'd trade Joe Ryan for Ryan Sloan....or Jackson Flora, but not sure we would pull that off.  Even a Taj Bradley level SP would be a good trade.  Not sure I trust Zoll to make a good trade tho....

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, saviking said:

If we are competitive maybe he helps us make the playoffs and if we aren't and Ryan hold up, we can still get something for him at the trade deadline. 

Yeah....NO!  This is the same sort of wishful thinking that blew away this year!  We could have traded away Ryan Jeffers to Boz last off-season and got an Ace SP in return.  We could have traded away Ryan last off-season for a haul.  But, no, we decided to be competitive.  

We were not competitive, its just that the rest of AL, and in particular, the AL Central, was so weak this year.  We looked like we were competitive, but really we were a losing team almost all year--only above 0.500 for  two quick spurts (and never more than 1 game over .500).  

Pick a lane, make a plan and go get it.  Not wishy washy if we do, if we don't.....

[JADBP]

6 hours ago, darin617 said:

Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober and Dean Kremer will all be free agents after 2027 if there is a season.

Ober and Kremer are expendable and neither have a good trade value. Pablo seems to be happy here and Ryan would have the highest trade value and I don't think he wants to stay here. The Twins also have many in house options to fill our the rotation.

I agree that it seems like Joe doesn't want to stay here.  So, I recommend testing that theory.  Throw out a long term contract to him, maybe $10/20/25 or something?  If he bites, then great.  Problem solved.  If not, then you know, so then plan on trading him.  Otherwise, he becomes the next Jeffers, we lose him for nothing in return. 

Smart teams capitalize on players like this.  They know that there will be down years.  Even NYY and LAD have down years.  So, you trade away assets to build back up.  Why can't the Twins do this?  There is a lot of dead wood to clear out (especially in the GM's office)!

[TJSweens]

I have to wonder what Ryan's trade value really is at this point. He is only guaranteed one year to whatever team acquires him and his extensive history of late season breakdowns is not attractive to contending teams.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

... Ryan to earn approximately $9.6 million through arbitration for the 2027 season. That's a significant raise from the $6.2 million he earned in 2025, but in the current starting pitching market, it might also qualify as something Twins fans haven't seen enough of lately: a bargain. The question is whether that bargain makes Ryan more valuable to the Twins or more attractive to other teams. It should do both, of course, but will it do one more than the other? And if so, what action will that prompt from the team?

All good questions. I'm surprised that he wasn't traded this past season. So, at this point, it seems as if it would be prudent to keep him, at least until the next trade deadline. Maybe we are contenders at this point, or maybe not. Maybe there won't even be a season. I remain uncertain and sitting on the fence. But as others have noted, Ryan gives off the vibes of a player that is looking for greener pastures. If you can get fair value for him, by all means make the trade. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If Ryan is such a great pitcher, why is his projected arbitration value so low?

[MeleMouth]

The refusal to trade Jeffers and Ryan this year brought back memories of 2011, when a bad Twins team refused to trade Jason Kubel as he was heading into free agency and accepted instead a compensation draft pick,  which turned into Luke Bard. The caretaker GM, Bill Smith, was let go that fall, and 2011 began a run of four 90-loss seasons under Gardy, which, if memory serves, was the first time the same manager had four 90-loss seasons in a row with the same team.

At least it gave us plenty of opportunities to enjoy the scoreboard showing Gardy drinking a glass of milk.

RE whether to trade Ryan now - yes, absolutely. The current roster looks like another 70-80 win team and the organization needs talent after draining all but maybe two of its top prospects. We don't know how much Tom Pohlad plans to spend in free agency, but $50 million is highly unlikely to add 15 wins (and would just saddle future teams with declining, high-priced veterans) and there aren't that many good players available anyway. 

[terrydactyls]

5 hours ago, JADBP said:

I agree that it seems like Joe doesn't want to stay here.  So, I recommend testing that theory.  Throw out a long term contract to him, maybe $10/20/25 or something?  If he bites, then great.  Problem solved.  If not, then you know, so then plan on trading him.  Otherwise, he becomes the next Jeffers, we lose him for nothing in return. 

Smart teams capitalize on players like this.  They know that there will be down years.  Even NYY and LAD have down years.  So, you trade away assets to build back up.  Why can't the Twins do this?  There is a lot of dead wood to clear out (especially in the GM's office)!

Which way is it?  Trade away "assets" or "a lot of dead wood to clear"?  And how do you tell them apart?

[LA Vikes Fan]

6 hours ago, JADBP said:

Yeah....NO!  This is the same sort of wishful thinking that blew away this year!  We could have traded away Ryan Jeffers to Boz last off-season and got an Ace SP in return.  We could have traded away Ryan last off-season for a haul.  But, no, we decided to be competitive.  

We were not competitive, its just that the rest of AL, and in particular, the AL Central, was so weak this year.  We looked like we were competitive, but really we were a losing team almost all year--only above 0.500 for  two quick spurts (and never more than 1 game over .500).  

Pick a lane, make a plan and go get it.  Not wishy washy if we do, if we don't.....

I like the concept of picking a lane, but getting an Ace SP for Ryan Jeffers last off season? Not a chance. Maybe a ceiling limited #3 or #4 starter, a good but not great middle infielder, or 1 top 100-150 prospect but no way was he ever worth an Ace SP. 

Same issue with Ryan. He has only 1 year before he costs $25-$30m a year or more on a longer term contract. That limits his value and the trade possibilities. I think he's worth a starting level MLB player plus a solid but not spectacular prospect. I'd like to see him traded for a quality starting catcher if Ryan is not re-signed or a higher end 2B, plus a prospect. I think that's doable in the offseason. If we wait to the deadline for a trade, the MLB player goes away, and we would be lucky to get a grade 50 prospect plus a grade 40 prospect with the better prospect at least 2-3 years away from MLB. You have to explore the market now unless you realistically think you can re-sign him. I just think we have to be realistic about the likely return.   

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, JADBP said:

I'd trade Joe Ryan for Ryan Sloan....or Jackson Flora, but not sure we would pull that off.  Even a Taj Bradley level SP would be a good trade.  Not sure I trust Zoll to make a good trade tho....

Zero chance you get Flora for Ryan. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

If Ryan is such a great pitcher, why is his projected arbitration value so low?

The arbitration system sucks. 

[DannySD]

I'm not sure he has much trade value right now. Contenders will see him as unplayable after July.