How Joe Ryan’s Projected Arbitration Salary Changes His Trade Market

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Brian Bradshaw Sevald-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have spent the last few years making payroll decisions that require a calculator, a spreadsheet, and (probably) a small support group. The next one is right around the corner, as Joe Ryan presents an interesting problem for Jeremy Zoll and the front office this winter.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Ryan to earn approximately $9.6 million through arbitration for the 2027 season. That's a significant raise from the $6.2 million he earned in 2025, but in the current starting pitching market, it might also qualify as something Twins fans haven't seen enough of lately: a bargain. The question is whether that bargain makes Ryan more valuable to the Twins or more attractive to other teams. It should do both, of course, but will it do one more than the other? And if so, what action will that prompt from the team?

Ryan Might Be One of the Best Starters on the Market

The 2026-27 free-agent starting pitching class isn't exactly overflowing with top-of-the-rotation options. The current top five starting pitchers on the market are probably:

1. LHP Tarik Skubal
2. LHP Trevor Rogers
3. RHP Freddy Peralta
4. RHP Michael King
5. RHP Kevin Gausman

Ryan isn't part of that free-agent group, because he's under team control through arbitration. But if he were available alongside those pitchers, there's a reasonable argument that he'd rank second on the entire market. At worst, he would be difficult to place lower than fifth.

That's important, because the pitchers ahead of him are going to cost significantly more than $10 million. Skubal will land a massive multi-year contract; it could be more than $400 million. Peralta, King, Rogers and Gausman will have plenty of teams interested in their services, and although only Rogers is likely to sniff a nine-figure deal, any of the four might earn $20 million per year or more.

Ryan doesn't come with such a burdensome price tag. A team could acquire him and pay roughly $10 million for one season, without committing to four, five or six years on a free-agent contract. If a trade suitor believes Ryan is one of the best starting pitchers available this winter, paying him $9.6 million for 2027 could look remarkably inexpensive. One way or another, Zoll's phone will buzz.

The Twins Would Be Selling a Valuable Asset

This is where the Ryan conversation becomes complicated. The Twins don't need to trade Ryan. They might actually have a very good reason to keep him. Minnesota's rotation faces plenty of questions heading into 2027. There are young arms who could emerge, but there are also durability questions, guys who are more project than prospect, and plenty of uncertainty.

Ryan is the known commodity. He's been one of the organization's most reliable starters, and his ability to miss bats isn't easily replaced internally. FanGraphs pegs his value at more than $17 million in every big-league season since his rookie year, and his strikeout skills are a huge part of that.

The Twins can't simply trade Ryan because another team is willing to offer a couple of prospects. He's a linchpin of their rotation. Unless they see trouble under the hood, they should only deal him if they get back a package that bolsters them in the present, as well as the future.

As argued previously, that kind of value might just not be there. His second-half performances have been a problem, which is a reason for the Twins to consider moving him but also a drag on the value teams might give up to get him. Again, though, the money matters—and it works in the team's favor, either way.

The $9.6 Million Question

Imagine you're a team that needs starting pitching. You can sign one of the top free agents and give that pitcher a multi-year contract worth anywhere from $19 million to $35 million per season. Then, you have to keep your fingers crossed that he stays healthy and performs at a high level for the life of the contract. Alternatively, you can trade prospects for Ryan and pay him less than $10 million for 2027. 

The latter option suddenly looks pretty appealing. Ryan's projected arbitration salary doesn't make him cheap in a vacuum. But baseball contracts don't exist in a vacuum. They exist in comparison to the alternatives, and the alternatives are expensive. Ryan's second halves are worrisome, but many of the other top starters available come with some yellow flags of their own. Most teams would rather have a guy who wears down every summer and battles nagging leg issues than one who's already wearing two elbow scars or has shoulder soreness all over his medical history.

So, Should the Twins Trade Him?

This is where things get uncomfortable. If the Twins are serious about competing in 2027, keeping Ryan makes a lot of sense. If they're more interested in continuing to reshape the roster around a younger core, Ryan might be one of the best players to cash in. The projected $9.6 million salary makes that decision harder, not easier. If Ryan were projected to make $20 million, teams might be less aggressive in trade talks. If the free-agent market were loaded with comparable starters, his trade value might also be lower.

Instead, Minnesota has a starting pitcher who could arguably rank near the top of the free-agent class and cost less than half what some comparable hurlers will. That's a pretty attractive asset. The Twins have to determine whether that asset is more valuable on the mound or as a piece to acquire others—which comes down to what those other pieces turn out to be.

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Does Ryan’s projected arbitration salary make him a more attractive trade candidate? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Linus]

I’m surprised at that projected arbitration amount. At that figure Joe still has some surplus value. 

[tony&rodney]

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

[Mike Sixel]

Not even a little. Teams either think he's really good still, or the they don't. The price is tiny. 

[SE23]

22 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

A deal with Miami involving Xavier Edwards might be worth exploring.

[SE23]

13 minutes ago, SE23 said:

A deal with Miami involving Xavier Edwards might be worth exploring.

Or with the Rays for Yandy Diaz

[Brandon]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins have to listen. Perhaps the Twins should be so bold as to ask for possibilities/odds of acquiring a player or two from some teams with Ryan as part of the return.

There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless the return is reasonable, but there should be opportunities.

Correcting your last statement. There isn't any reason to trade Joe Ryan unless THERE IS AN OVERPAY for the return.  There is no other reason to trade him as he will be better than Ober next year.  Ober is the one to trade for fair value.  

Also wanted to say the author of this article did a good job writing it and not making a click bate article.  This one was fun to read.  

[IndianaTwin]

Does Peralta provide a reference point? Last offseason the Brewers traded an $8M Peralta with one year of control for Brandon Sproat, who was well-regarded and who turned in a relatively underwhelming 22 starts as a 26-year-old rookie, and Jett Williams, also well-regarded at the time but who has fallen to a No. 10 ranking in the Brewers system. 

Then in July, the Mets traded an underwhelming Peralta for guys who are now ranked 10, 15 and 16 in the Mets system. If the systems were parallel, that would be like trading for Carson Tinney, Brandon Winokur and Charlee Soto. 

So how much less did the Mets get for him for two months compared to what they gave up, ostensibly for a full season, in the offseason? Recognize that they could have gotten more for him in July if he hadn’t stunk for four months.

I’m not an expert on Mets and Brewers prospects, but it doesn’t seem like he fell thaaaaat far in value from the offseason to July. 

Aside from the fact that moving him would save me from approximately 94 “trade Joe Ryan” articles on TD, I’d rather roll the dice, improve the team elsewhere and strive to compete.