The Louis Varland Trade Keeps Looking Worse

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © William Liang-Imagn Images

The Twins’ frenzy at last year’s trade deadline had plenty of understandable sell-offs, but by the end, it seemed that they leaned into their willingness to deal relievers a bit too far. Dumping Louis Varland at the last minute of the trade deadline felt like the front office was a bit too confident in themselves. Almost a year later, that deal doesn’t look any better.

The return for Varland was immediately worth questioning. The Twins cited Kendry Rojas as the main piece that pushed them over the edge. A borderline top 100 prospect, Rojas was coming off back-to-back seasons considerably shortened by injuries. That, paired with some flashes of control concerns, had already flagged him as a reliever risk. His high 90s fastball from the left side, paired with a plus slider, gave him upside, but the floor was difficult to ignore. 

Rojas debuted with the Saints immediately after the trade and posted a 6.59 ERA in 8 starts. He surprisingly made his MLB debut this season, but it was interrupted by a triceps injury that cost him a month. In his 16 innings of big league action, his 18.3% walk rate has kept him from helping the Twins’ pitching-needy roster. He’s since been demoted back to Triple-A.

The other piece of the trade was even more of an eyebrow raiser. Perhaps the one position in the organization that could be considered a legitimate log jam was left-handed hitting outfielder. The Twins couldn’t help but feed their obsession with collecting this type of player, and acquired Alan Roden (bringing the total to three lefty corner outfielders acquired at the deadline). Unfortunately, he was injured immediately after being acquired and did not make the 2026 opening-day roster. He missed even more time with a shoulder injury this spring and hasn’t played at the MLB level this offseason despite a near 1.000 OPS as a 26-year-old in St. Paul because there’s simply no room for him.

The Twins went on to declare themselves contenders for the 2026 season, and that has arguably played out, given the American League's weakness and their high-scoring offense. Their biggest issue has been the bullpen, which they chose to almost completely ignore in the offseason after their bullpen fire sale.

Trading Varland always seemed like one step too far. It left the 2026 roster with absolutely nothing to turn to in the bullpen, and the team’s payroll and hubris regarding relievers have made the group a flammable mess that has undoubtedly cost the team countless games so far in 2026. While nobody expected Varland to be one of the best relievers in baseball this season, even if he performed at his 2025 level, he would have been the anchor of the Twins' bullpen.

There was no reason to trade Varland unless they were blown away by an offer. That offer turned out to be a position player they didn’t need and a high-variance pitching prospect who very well may be bullpen-bound before long himself. The organizational belief that relievers don’t matter was on full display with the Varland trade, and it has immediately cost them in a season where the rest of the league has allowed them to hang around in the wild card standings. Simply not having a bottom-five bullpen in baseball would have this team firmly positioned in a playoff spot.

Perhaps the Twins will trade away assets to bring in relief help, an ironic outcome that would further paint the Varland trade as a mistake. Maybe Rojas can stick as a starting pitcher long term and make the trade a net win in value for the Twins. That won’t change the fact that this deal was a major self-inflicted blow to their ability to compete in 2026, which was their self-stated goal.

If Rojas sticks as a starting pitcher over the course of his Twins career, the Twins can come out on the other side of this deal as winners down the line. They’ll still have taken an immediate hit in 2026, and what we’ve seen from Rojas so far doesn’t make this scenario look particularly likely. Perhaps Varland wouldn’t have been enough to hold this bullpen together. At the very least, his performance this year would have been worth more in trade if the Twins hadn’t decided they had no choice but to dump a controllable player at a position they needed for whatever they could get.

There’s no way around it: The Varland trade looks bad. There’s still a path for it to turn around if Rojas sticks in the rotation, but that was not a sure thing when he was required, and has only looked less likely since he came to the Twins. The Twins took things one step too far at the 2025 trade deadline, and an immediately unpopular trade has only looked worse since.

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Too harsh? Fair? Share your reaction in the comments.

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[weitz41]

I get it, but being the 22nd worst BP with him, rather than the 25th worst isn't the issue for me. It's the lack of investment in the BP during the off season that makes this trade go from "WHY?" to "WTF!"

Roden only makes sense if you're moving Larnach and/or Wallner in the offseason. But again...nothing. Compounding the odd or unneeded trade.

Rojas. It's just too soon for me to judge. 

 

[Twins GFP]

While the trade seemed odd at the time, no one will really know why the trade was made. Were there behind-the-scenes issues? Did someone of importance want him gone? Did the Twins truly believe he was not going to help them long term? Did they believe they received better value in return?

A half-season of a reliever is about the most unreliable thing you can base results on. While the trade looks bad now, it will take a few years to truly see the results.

[bean5302]

Nobody expected Varland to blossom into this kind of production. He projected like a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA unspectacular reliever with the Twins. Varland, for years, gave up tons of very hard contact. Batters tee'd off with high barrel rates, squared up rates and hard hit rates. Now, he has low exit velocities, and he's baffling hitters by not allowing barrels with huge gains in command and better stuff by dropping bad performing pitches.

The explosion of performance puts a lot of heat on the front office and pitching coaches, though. Varland ditched his sinker, brought back a much improved changeup and he's dominated. I've long felt the new front office was "meet the new boss, same as the old boss!" in terms of forcing players to fit into the mold of productivity the front office believes in at the team level.

Will Varland be able to keep this up? Yeah. It looks like it (though he won't maintain the sub 1.00 ERA) Also... Brent Headrick. He's been great for the Yankees. I thought Headrick would struggle to provide any value out of the bullpen, but he's looking very solid.

Anyway, as good as Varland has become, Rojas is still worth a lot more if he can lock down a rotation spot. If the Twins' front office had done their job and shored up the bullpen like they absolutely needed to, there would be a whole lot less frustration around here.

[CRF]

Just another genius move by Falvey. 

[Eris]

While I agree that the Varland trade looked bad at the time and looks worse now and also seemed unnecessary as he is not a free agent until 2031.  

Are the 2026 Twins W/L record worse because of the trade.  The Twins staff has 55 holds (5th most, tied with Atlanta and the LA Dodgers).  They have 24 saves (12th tied with the Athletics, Toronto has 28 which is 4th).  Blown saves the Twins have 11 (14th in MLB, tied with Toronto).  Cleveland has 8 BS (4th in MLB).  To me these numbers don't jump out as bad and it seems unlikely that the Twins would be in first place in the Central with Varland.  All data is from Fangraphs.

In terms of the glut of left-handed hitting outfielders that we have been reading about for years on TD, that also needs qualifying.  What the Twins do not have is left-handed hitting outfielders who have demonstrated that they can hit MLB pitching and play good defense and are durable.  I am not sure if Alan Roden is a solution.  He has also been hurt at a time when he most likely would have had an opportunity with the Twins.

 

[HarmonK03]

7 minutes ago, Eris said:

In terms of the glut of left-handed hitting outfielders that we have been reading about for years on TD, that also needs qualifying.  What the Twins do not have is left-handed hitting outfielders who have demonstrated that they can hit MLB pitching and play good defense and are durable.  I am not sure if Alan Roden is a solution.  He has also been hurt at a time when he most likely would have had an opportunity with the Twins.

 

This is the point, they already had a number of LH hitting corner outfielders they needed to look at and also added one more at the deadline prior to this trade.  Why would you add another to this mix.  If you are going to make this move at least try and get someone that is either a proven player or for a position that you need like maybe a RH hitting outfielder which was probably more of a need at the time.

[rdehring]

Here we go again, another article bashing the Twins for a trade they made last July. 

When any team trades a player for prospects no one, I repeat no one will know the outcome for several years until those prospects have had time to either fail to make the big leagues or arrive, so we know what they are capable of doing.  Halfway thru this year certainly isn't time for any conclusion on who won the trade.  Maybe a year from now we will have an idea who won the trade.  Or two years?

[Brandon]

I don't think Varland pitches that good here,  Rojas is a really good prospect, Roden can be useful.  This trade is better than the Berrios trade.  Give Rojas a chance to shine.  Also did Varland want out?  I think he wanted opportunity to start.  

[HeresWaldo]

Fun fact: Varland would be the Twins most valuable pitcher if he were still on the roster. He's ahead of both Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley in bWAR this season.

[TJSweens]

22 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

Fun fact: Varland would be the Twins most valuable pitcher if he were still on the roster. He's ahead of both Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley in bWAR this season.

That might mean something if I put any stock in a stat from the WAR family.

[jaimedude]

I think kendrys Rojas will be a quality starter when it us all said and done. What is he 23 years old? 

[Maybebaby]

Just the front office once again waving their not so magic wand again!  All they get are fairy farts!