Through One-Third of the Season, the Minnesota Twins Have Shown Impressive Resilience

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered this season with the deck stacked against them. They were a 70-win team that made few meaningful upgrades during the offseason. Minnesota's new manager brought with him one of the worst career winning percentages in history; their new ownership chair had no baseball experience.

The Twins' long-tenured and highly-respected baseball ops leader resigned just before spring training, leaving untested Jeremy Zoll in charge of the front office. 

The infrastructure was already quite questionable. Then, on the first official day of spring training, the Twins lost Pablo López, their highest paid and arguably most important player, for the season. None of their big bullpen gambles in camp (e.g. Liam Hendriks and Andrew Chafin) paid off. 

The team started the season 3-6. Everything was seemingly moving along as one would expect. But from there, the Twins won eight of nine, vaulting above the .500 mark. This was followed by a prolonged "back to reality" slump, with a 9-19 record over the next 28 games putting Minnesota back underwater by six games. But now they've pulled together another hot streak, winning seven of their last nine to get back within a game of .500 and into the thick of the AL Wild Card picture.

Through these first 55 games, in addition to being without López entirely, the Twins have:

• Gotten zero appearances from David Festa, and just four from Mick Abel.
• Received sub-replacement level performance from their two biggest offseason signings, Josh Bell and Victor Caratini. 
• Seen hopeful lineup cornerstone Luke Keaschall go from promising #3 hitter on Opening Day to floundering #8 hitter two months later.
• Sent down key players Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner after several weeks of immense and relentless struggle.
• Demoted Simeon Woods Richardson to the bullpen after he posted a league-worst 7.71 ERA through nine starts.

You look at this series of developments all together, and you'd assume the Twins were 10 games below .500. At times, they've been trending in that direction. But so far they've been able to pull out of their tailspins with winning bursts, and as we pass the one-third milestone in the schedule, they are on pace for 80 wins. That's on the higher end of general expectations and well within range of Tom Pohlad's "We will be competitive in 2026" edict. 

I don't want to heap too much praise on a losing team that's hanging around in a very underwhelming American League, but, it's impressive! How have the Twins managed to overcome their shortcomings and tribulations to reach this point? 

What's Gone Right?
For all that has gone amiss in the past few months, there are a number of important things that have gone swimmingly. And while it's fair to debate the sustainability in some cases, there's no denying the impact up until now. (The following stats were entering play on Tuesday.)

The starting rotation has been (mostly) fantastic. Twins starters are on pace for 14.1 fWAR, which would be the highest in the last decade aside from their division-winning campaigns in 2019 and '23. The collective 3.82 ERA from Minnesota's rotation is dragged down by Woods Richardson; if you remove his contributions from the mix that figure drops to 3.15, which would rank third in the AL behind the Rays and Yankees, owners of the two best records in the league. 

Byron Buxton is as good as ever. He's on pace for 48 home runs and 6.0 fWAR, which would both represent new career highs. Having such an offensive force at the top of the your lineup who can also play a solid center field is just such a big competitive advantage. 

Ryan Jeffers was building toward a career year. He was neck-and-neck with Buxton in WAR before going down with a hamate fracture last week, and that probably understates the impact of his prolific ABS-challenging success. Jeffers will be out until around the All-Star break, which is one major factor standing in the way of sustained success for the Twins, but he's been integral to getting them here.

Austin Martin and Trevor Larnach are taking big steps forward. They rank third and fourth Twins among position players in WAR after Buxton and Jeffers. Not long ago, it was unclear whether either of them would even be in the team's plans for this season. They're excelling with a similar formula: good plate approaches yielding low-power, high-OBP production that nets out at roughly 25% of above league average. 

 

The bullpen has been shockingly effective. At least lately, anyway. Through 39 games, Twins relievers had the second-worst ERA in baseball (5.81). Since then, in their past 15 games, they have the fourth-best ERA (2.05), and they lead the majors in WPA, helping them go 10-5 over this stretch. It's been a stunning turnaround and while I struggle to convince myself it's going to stay this way, they did just part ways with their two worst bullpen arms (Justin Topa and Luis García) in the past week.

Derek Shelton seems to be resonating. I don't want to blow this out of proportion — especially because, this time last year, the Twins were five games over .500 and fresh off a 13-game winning streak under Rocco Baldelli. That's easy to forget now because of how the rest of the season went, and there's plenty of season left this year. We've seen this Twins team play some bad ball under Shelton. But we've also seen them generally respond well to his presence, and they're now on their second run of scrappy winning baseball in two months.

There's a lot that's gone wrong with this team, and a lot that still could go wrong. But to be within spitting distance of a winning record as the summer gets going in earnest is about all I could have realistically ask for, so I'm going to savor it while I can. 

What are you biggest impressions of the 2026 Twins through one-third of the season? Is it a bad team that's riding a temporary hot streak? A mediocre team that matches its record? Or a potentially good team with more in the tank? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments.

View full article

[Fatbat]

The starting pitching has been a crazy positive. If the bullpen can be competent, we at least have a chance in every game.  Going forward, they need to lean into the young guys and get them experience in MLB. Deal with the growing pains this season so we are a step ahead for ‘27. 

[Riverbrian]

Hats off to the Twins. It doesn't matter how I feel about the bullpen. Or what I would have done in the off-season instead of what they did. It hasn't been a disaster. If the season ended today. We would be heading to Sacramento for the playoffs. 3 teams from the Central would be in. 

The 6 playoff teams would be:  

Rays

Guardians

A's

Yankees

White Sox

Twins

If you take the Yankees out of that group of 6. Not a lot of money spent on the other 5.

Plenty of furlongs left in this horse race. Golden Tempo is sitting back there somewhere. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

Much of TD was convinced it was 70 win team at best going into the season. Based on what we’ve seen so far, that means either:

a) they are a 70-win team and will play like a 65-win team the rest of the say to end up 70-92; or

b) they aren’t a 70-win team after all, despite the proclamations of the braintrust on TD.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

This team is more likeable and enjoyable than the 2024 and 2025 versions. Hats off to Shelton. He's pushed a lot of the right buttons so far. Starting rotation is playoff caliber. Bullpen - will still give a ton of heartburn although I guess that's just the nature of baseball - but there have been some really good outings of late. The defense has also improved from what we saw at the beginning of the season. Most importantly, the team plays hard. Never get the sense that they're just going through the motions - that was the case far too often the prior two years.

[Coach Wheels]

A) Buxton is healthy and Shelton plays him every day.

B) Bradley is better than we thought and Ober is pitching very well, better than expected.

C) While we still lack power, guys are getting clutch hits at important times. Offense is still a work in progress for sure.

D) The division is awful and the American League in general isn't very good right now. Let's enjoy these 55 games and see where it goes.

[puckett_34]

When lineup spots aren’t guaranteed it increases competition. Handle the pressure, and you’ll stick around, until you’re traded (sorry couldn’t help myself). I find myself enjoying a team where merit gets you playing time and new faces get a chance to play before they rot away in AAA. 

[Peter]

I knew all along twins would be good!!! The division is soft as is league is 💩👎🤮not the twins fault!!! Only 4 back of Cleveland 3rd spot in wild card!!! Twins are must see/watch every game this year!!!

[CRF]

The talent level isn't the greatest, but we're making lemonade out of lemons. The manager is a HUGE upgrade, and that can't be disregarded. 

[Jerry Gale]

In Minnesota, we don't demand much of the Twins. Just stay interesting until Vikings Training camp starts. The good news this summer is that it looks like the Twins will meet that goal, and, if they stay competitive until September, that would be a bonus. 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

31 minutes ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Hats off to Shelton. He's pushed a lot of the right buttons so far.

I think so too. If nothing else, he seems more willing to try different things with different players and is not so predictable as Rocco was. But as Nick and others said, it's still very early in the season, but despite the various injuries and performance issues (Lewis, Wallner, Topa, and even Bell and Cartatini) we are somehow close to playing .500 ball. And the biggest thing is that it feels a lot more fun this season.

[Patzky]

24 minutes ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

I think so too. If nothing else, he seems more willing to try different things with different players and is not so predictable as Rocco was. But as Nick and others said, it's still very early in the season, but despite the various injuries and performance issues (Lewis, Wallner, Topa, and even Bell and Cartatini) we are somehow close to playing .500 ball. And the biggest thing is that it feels a lot more fun this season.

They have won games in the last week, I don't want to say they had no business winning, but they have had unexpected bursts of fun and character. Last night was an entertaining game to watch no matter who would up on top. The spotlight keeps finding different people and they step up .. a big hit from Lee or Clemens, a double steal from Buck-Larnach, a huge game from Taj or Abel, a gutsy save from Joendry (so I'll call him Joendryful until he blows one.) Huge catch from Martin, great play from Keaschall, sharp throw from Jackson. It's good stuff!

[rdehring]

Thanks Nick.  Count me among those Twins fans who is happy, very happy.

[tony&rodney]

Along with all of the previous comments above, I will add that the defense has improved and the mental mistakes have been reduced.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The Twins have been beneficiaries of absolute dog crap fielding from their opponents.

https://www.aarongleeman.com/fact-or-fiction-have-the-twins-opponents-played-horrible-defense-against-them/
 

I have to believe -21 runs prevented against them will regress to the mean as the season wears on.

The Twins +4 run differential looks really different were they to play against league average run prevention.

color me skeptical of the resilience 

[Bodie]

Addition by subtraction.

Remarkable what will happen when you aren't regularly playing the worst regular in baseball and another at the very bottom for his position...

And the bullpen goes from barrel scraping to... well, lets call them a barrel for now!  Go barrels!

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins have been beneficiaries of absolute dog crap fielding from their opponents.

https://www.aarongleeman.com/fact-or-fiction-have-the-twins-opponents-played-horrible-defense-against-them/
 

I have to believe -21 runs prevented against them will regress to the mean as the season wears on.

The Twins +4 run differential looks really different were they to play against league average run prevention.

color me skeptical of the resilience 

Applying pressure (putting balls in play v striking out, running or threatening to run,) causes the other team to make mistakes too, or at least lose concentration. Similarly, NO WALKS issued last night by Twins pitchers removes those additional stressors on our own defense. We are doing some things right, and it may last awhile and surprise us all 

[TheLeviathan]

16 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

The Twins have been beneficiaries of absolute dog crap fielding from their opponents.

https://www.aarongleeman.com/fact-or-fiction-have-the-twins-opponents-played-horrible-defense-against-them/
 

I have to believe -21 runs prevented against them will regress to the mean as the season wears on.

The Twins +4 run differential looks really different were they to play against league average run prevention.

color me skeptical of the resilience 

Great link.  This definitely feels like a team who has had "puck luck" to put it in another sport's framework.  I grant Nick's point that the team has been resilient and continued to come back to play the next day.  That's a great sign in a baseball team.  

However, right now it's a team that is basically 14th or so in every measure.  That's not bad and probably a team that can see itself to a .500 record if maintained.  It also helps that they've committed to better defense at SS to help keep this narrow win path open.  But this is also a pretty soft part of the schedule and there has been a small sample of decent bullpen work.  I'm going to need to see that continue along with developing an offensive plan beyond "hope Buxton carries us to this win" to find it sustainable.

[IndianaTwin]

Several have noted here and in other threads that the bullpen has been pitching much better "of late." I think a better way of saying it is that the guys currently in the pen have pitched well all season.

They've gotten rid of the dead weight in Topa, Garcia, etc. The seven current guys in the bullpen not named SWR have a combined ERA of 3.64. If you take out an eight-day April stretch from Banda, it drops to 3.06.

And for what it's worth, SWR hasn't given up a run in the extremely SSS of 3 innings in the bullpen. Add those and the numbers drop a smidge to 3.56 and 2.98. 

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

Im enjoying it. The team has, so far, been willing to swap out ineffective players or even cut them. Which is something that hadn't been done much previously. 

I would much rather see a younger player called up and get a taste of MLB over a struggling vet any day. 

Seeing Lee moved off SS was great! Getting better defenders on the field is a must! 

[Nshore]

The excellence of the starting rotation seems sustainable barring more injuries.  The bullpen will be better going forward with addition by subtraction.  Hawkins is doing a great job.   The x factor IMO is Lewis (I've kind of given up on Wallner).  Add a big right handed bat in the line up to go with the pitching and they go above .500.  For Lewis to reinvent himself at this point seems impossible - but this IS the season of the impossible!

[Linus]

I think it proves what’s been true for 150 years: starting pitching is the most important factor in winning games. I have no idea what Falvey would have done but Zoll seems a bit more aggressive and decisive in his roster moves. I also like the way Shelton has managed the bullpen. The lineup is not great but they are playing better defense and they don’t rely on one or two guys to get the job done. Larnach and Martin stepping up gives them a legit outfield-maybe somehow the infield can do the same. I still think my 75 win projection is going to be accurate but I find myself watching every night - it’s been enjoyable. 

[Twins GFP]

Before all of the negativity works it's way into these comments:

- It doesn't matter if the AL is soft, or the Twins schedule has been soft, or that the defense against them has been bad, or any other stat that you want to put in degrading their record so far. The Twins can only play the schedule they have been given. 

- Nobody here is claiming this is a 100-win team. But look at the opening day roster and where things stand now. How many players that were expected to be solid contributors have flamed out or have strongly underperformed? Wallner, Lewis, SWR, Keaschall, Caratini, half the bullpen. Injuries have claimed a handful more. Where would this team be if Lopez was in the rotation instead of SWR? Top wild-card team, maybe higher? What if the BP was even mediocre instead of horrible?

- Time will tell if what we are seeing from Martin, Larnach, even Lee is sustainable. What if it is?

The general rule is teams know what they are after 40 games. Not sure if that applies here because of all the player turnover. It is very possible that while this team is overperforming initial expectations, they are actually better than their record suggests. That is a concept that will probably blow up 70% of this website.

We are getting close to the point that Pohlad needs to start putting his money where his mouth is. If he thinks this team is a contender, and their current record says they are in the hunt, what is he going to do to improve the roster?

[Jeff K]

So many things are going well, but I believe the refreshing change in culture to one of accountability has contributed greatly.  Shelton sits players who are slumping, gives them a chance and if they still don't perform, he makes a change.  (Wallner/Lewis/SWR).  Outman would be gone if he could fill the role differently or if Emma hadn't been injured.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

48 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Applying pressure (putting balls in play v striking out, running or threatening to run,) causes the other team to make mistakes too, or at least lose concentration. Similarly, NO WALKS issued last night by Twins pitchers removes those additional stressors on our own defense. We are doing some things right, and it may last awhile and surprise us all 

Putting balls in play increases the opportunities, which should stabilize to a bell curve if the outcomes are completely random.

agreed, the outcomes are not completely random, the Twins do have an impact via running, steals, etc but the pendulum swings both ways. Those outcomes can go badly just as much as go in the Twins favor.

[Craig Arko]

1 minute ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Those outcomes can go badly just as much as go in the Twins favor.

Which they did for the past two seasons. Maybe we’re just seeing statistical normalization? I don’t know. It’s a different team, now.

[Whitey333]

Count me in as one that is pleasantly surprised about the Twins overall play.  They sure are performing better than I thought they would.  Also count me in as one of the skeptical ones that is waiting for the other shoe to drop so to speak.  Im trying to enjoy their play.  I do like Shelton much better than Rocco.  Time will tell.  Go Twins.  It is SO much funner when you win or at least play well.

[Danchat]

Shelton has absolutely been an upgrade as the manager... but with starting pitching this good, any manager looks better (Rocco sure did when he had quality starters, and pulled them at a league average rate). The ability to score runs has been way better than this lineup has any right to be. They're lucky their bad of random utility former DFA collection has hit so well, at some point there's going to be regression. But with how dreadful the American League is, their record is going to look better than it'd be if they were an NL team. 

At least you can see the foundation of a good team here, which makes the ownership situation even more frustrating.

[S Bart]

 

6 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

Which they did for the past two seasons. Maybe we’re just seeing statistical normalization? I don’t know. It’s a different team, now.

 

[S Bart]

How about giving a bit of credit to Latroy Hawkins? A great dude who has led the bullpen to a record connected to the number of saves and the number of pitchers. ....weird record. Regardless, he has been a great addition in my view....much more so than the broadcast booth.