A Chance Worth Taking: The Twins Are Still in This, Somehow

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

By no means have the 2026 Twins gotten lucky. In fact, they can't catch a break. Their run differential (230 runs scored, 231 allowed) implies a 25-25 record, but they're 23-27. They lost their ace to season-ending elbow surgery on the first day of full-squad workouts in the spring, and their in loco Pablosis ace, Joe Ryan, has had multiple disruptions to his preparation and performance. Their star center fielder went off to international duty and found himself benched, slowing his start to the season. They had two strong breakout candidates in their rotation for the first month, but both are currently on the injured list. Now, their primary catcher is shelved for weeks by a broken bone in his hand. Their top two prospects got hurt in Triple-A.

Given all that (and especially given the aforementioned 23-27 record), though, things feel oddly hopeful. The Twins are 5.5 games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central, but they've already proved they can hang with that team, beating them twice in three games at Progressive Field earlier this month. They're only 1.5 games out of playoff position. According to FanGraphs, they have a 23.8% chance to make the playoffs—down from their highest point during their early-season hot streak, but right in the same range they've been in for the last four weeks or so.

While neither Matt Wallner nor Royce Lewis left the team much choice but to demote them to Triple-A, this situation made that decision both easier and more urgent. Ditto for their replacement of Simeon Woods Richardson in the starting rotation. Because of what now seem to be real problems—and not just slow starts—for the Royals, Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners, Astros and Blue Jays, the door to the playoffs remains open to this team. To give themselves a chance to push through it, the team needed to make changes.

Here's a position-by-position breakdown of all 30 teams' wins above average, courtesy of Baseball Reference. The Twins' totals are highlighted.

Rk

Total

All P

SP

RP

Non-P

C

1B

2B

3B

SS

LF

CF

RF

OF (All)

DH

PH

1

Atlanta Braves9.5

ATL4.8

ATL3.9

SDP1.4

LAD6.3

BAL0.9

ATL1.9

STL1.7

LAD1.8

KCR2.6

SEA1.5

LAD2.2

STL2.1

BOS3.2

PHI1.0

ATL0.2

2

Los Angeles Dodgers9.3

NYY4.3

MIL3.8

PHI1.2

CHC5.8

CHC0.7

ATH1.3

MIL1.7

CHW1.2

MIA1.7

NYY1.3

CHC1.5

BOS1.8

CHC2.7

LAD1.0

LAD0.2

3

New York Yankees7.3

PHI3.4

NYY3.6

ATL0.9

ATL4.7

ATH0.7

BOS1.1

PIT1.4

CLE1.2

CIN1.4

DET0.9

LAA1.1

ARI1.8

NYY2.7

HOU0.9

CHC0.1

4

Milwaukee Brewers3.5

MIL3.4

TBR2.5

COL0.8

BOS3.6

MIN 0.6

NYY1.1

MIA1.3

ARI1.0

NYY1.3

CHC0.6

BOS1.1

NYY1.4

LAD2.6

TBR0.9

BOS0.0

5

Cleveland Guardians3.4

LAD3.0

CLE2.5

NYY0.7

NYY3.0

DET0.5

CHW1.0

CHC1.3

TEX0.7

WSN1.0

BAL0.5

MIN 0.9

WSN0.8

SEA1.9

ATL0.9

WSN0.0

6

Chicago Cubs3.0

CLE2.7

CHW2.4

LAD0.6

STL2.5

MIL0.3

HOU0.9

SEA1.3

KCR0.5

CLE0.9

TBR0.3

ATL0.8

TEX0.7

TEX1.5

CLE0.3

NYY0.0

7

Tampa Bay Rays1.7

ATH2.6

ATH2.4

ATH0.2

TEX2.2

SDP0.3

STL0.6

SFG1.1

HOU0.4

DET0.7

MIN 0.3

TOR0.7

CHC0.6

WSN1.3

CHC0.3

TBR0.0

8

Texas Rangers1.7

DET1.8

MIN 2.4

MIA0.2

ARI1.7

ATL0.3

PIT0.5

ATL1.1

SFG0.4

PIT0.7

BOS0.3

TEX0.6

LAD0.3

ARI1.1

MIL0.2

MIN -0.1

9

Athletics1.7

CHW1.6

PHI2.2

DET0.2

TBR1.1

LAD0.1

MIL0.4

CHW0.5

TBR0.3

TBR0.7

WSN0.3

SEA0.4

ATL0.2

ATL0.9

STL0.2

PIT-0.1

10

Chicago White Sox1.6

TOR1.6

LAD2.2

SEA0.2

HOU0.9

BOS0.1

SDP0.3

CLE0.3

CHC0.1

LAA0.5

TEX0.2

WSN0.2

CLE0.1

STL0.8

BOS0.1

ARI-0.1

11

Boston Red Sox1.1

SDP1.6

TOR1.8

CLE0.1

WSN0.7

TEX-0.1

TEX0.3

LAD0.3

TOR0.1

ARI0.5

LAD0.1

BAL0.1

KCR0.1

CLE-0.3

BAL0.1

HOU-0.1

12

Seattle Mariners0.7

MIN 0.8

DET1.6

SFG0.0

SEA0.7

KCR-0.1

CHC0.3

LAA0.2

DET0.0

HOU0.5

CIN0.1

PIT0.0

SEA0.0

TOR-0.3

NYY0.0

TEX-0.1

13

Philadelphia Phillies0.5

TBR0.6

PIT1.3

TEX-0.1

CLE0.7

HOU-0.2

BAL0.2

TBR0.2

SEA-0.1

CHW0.3

PHI-0.1

NYY0.0

TBR-0.1

BAL-0.4

WSN-0.1

KCR-0.2

14

Arizona Diamondbacks0.3

COL0.1

KCR0.7

TOR-0.1

PIT0.5

STL-0.2

CIN0.2

ARI0.2

PIT-0.1

CHC0.3

ATL-0.1

ARI-0.1

PIT-0.2

MIN -0.4

CIN-0.1

CIN-0.3

15

Kansas City Royals0.1

SEA0.0

CIN0.7

ARI-0.3

KCR0.4

COL-0.3

LAD0.2

TEX0.0

BOS-0.2

TEX0.2

COL-0.2

CHW-0.1

HOU-0.3

PIT-0.4

NYM-0.1

SDP-0.3

16

Pittsburgh Pirates0.1

KCR-0.3

SDP0.2

CHC-0.4

MIL0.1

PIT-0.3

PHI0.2

BAL0.0

ATL-0.2

SDP0.2

MIL-0.2

NYM-0.1

NYM-0.4

TBR-0.5

COL-0.1

MIA-0.3

17

St. Louis Cardinals-0.3

MIA-0.3

SEA-0.2

MIL-0.4

CHW0.0

MIA-0.4

MIN 0.1

ATH-0.1

LAA-0.3

STL0.2

PIT-0.2

CLE-0.1

CHW-0.4

KCR-0.6

ATH-0.2

CHW-0.3

18

Minnesota Twins -1.1

PIT-0.4

LAA-0.2

NYM-0.4

BAL-0.8

ARI-0.4

TBR0.0

WSN-0.1

COL-0.3

LAD0.1

CHW-0.2

KCR-0.1

ATH-0.4

CHW-0.7

TEX-0.3

ATH-0.3

19

Detroit Tigers-1.4

TEX-0.5

TEX-0.4

BOS-0.5

ATH-0.9

NYM-0.4

WSN-0.2

BOS-0.2

ATH-0.4

MIL0.0

NYM-0.3

HOU-0.2

TOR-0.5

NYM-0.8

DET-0.3

SEA-0.3

20

Toronto Blue Jays-1.6

NYM-0.9

STL-0.4

CHW-0.7

CIN-1.6

SFG-0.4

ARI-0.2

DET-0.2

STL-0.4

SFG-0.1

CLE-0.3

SDP-0.3

LAA-0.6

LAA-0.8

SEA-0.4

BAL-0.3

21

San Diego Padres-2.1

ARI-1.4

MIA-0.5

KCR-1.0

MIN -1.9

TOR-0.5

TOR-0.2

NYY-0.3

WSN-0.5

ATH-0.1

SDP-0.4

MIL-0.3

COL-0.7

HOU-0.9

LAA-0.4

LAA-0.3

22

Miami Marlins-2.4

CIN-1.4

NYM-0.6

WSN-1.0

LAA-1.9

SEA-0.5

COL-0.2

CIN-0.4

CIN-0.6

TOR-0.2

HOU-0.4

PHI-0.3

SFG-0.8

CIN-1.3

ARI-0.4

SFG-0.4

23

Cincinnati Reds-3.0

SFG-2.4

COL-0.7

MIN -1.6

MIA-2.1

CIN-0.5

LAA-0.3

KCR-0.4

PHI-0.6

NYM-0.3

STL-0.4

MIA-0.3

MIL-0.9

PHI-1.3

SDP-0.4

NYM-0.4

24

Washington Nationals-3.2

BOS-2.5

ARI-1.0

PIT-1.7

SFG-2.4

TBR-0.5

MIA-0.4

MIN -0.5

NYM-0.7

BAL-0.3

SFG-0.5

CIN-0.5

CIN-0.9

MIL-1.4

SFG-0.4

MIL-0.4

25

Houston Astros-3.8

CHC-2.8

HOU-1.7

TBR-1.9

PHI-2.9

LAA-0.5

NYM-0.5

TOR-0.5

MIL-0.7

PHI-0.3

ATH-0.5

COL-0.6

PHI-0.9

COL-1.5

MIN -0.5

CLE-0.4

26

New York Mets-4.8

STL-2.8

BOS-2.0

BAL-2.0

DET-3.2

WSN-0.7

SFG-0.6

HOU-0.6

MIN -0.7

ATL-0.4

TOR-0.5

SFG-0.7

BAL-1.0

DET-1.7

KCR-0.5

PHI-0.4

27

San Francisco Giants-4.8

LAA-3.3

CHC-2.4

CIN-2.0

TOR-3.2

CLE-0.7

CLE-0.6

PHI-0.7

SDP-0.8

SEA-0.4

ARI-0.6

TBR-0.7

SDP-1.2

ATH-1.8

MIA-0.6

STL-0.4

28

Colorado Rockies-5.0

WSN-3.9

SFG-2.4

STL-2.4

SDP-3.7

PHI-0.8

SEA-0.8

NYM-0.7

NYY-0.9

MIN -0.4

KCR-0.6

STL-0.9

MIA-1.2

SDP-1.9

CHW-0.9

TOR-0.6

29

Los Angeles Angels-5.2

HOU-4.7

BAL-2.8

HOU-3.0

NYM-3.9

NYY-0.9

KCR-0.9

COL-1.0

BAL-1.0

BOS-0.5

MIA-0.9

ATH-0.9

DET-1.5

SFG-2.0

TOR-1.0

COL-0.7

30

Baltimore Orioles-5.7

BAL-4.9

WSN-2.9

LAA-3.2

COL-5.1

CHW-1.1

DET-1.4

SDP-1.1

MIA-1.0

COL-1.0

LAA-1.3

DET-1.1

MIN -1.6

MIA-2.4

PIT-1.2

DET-0.8

Coming into this season, any hopes for this club to contend were anchored to their starting rotation being good. That hasn't happened in the way fans or the front office hoped and expected, in that Pablo López is out for the year and both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been sidelined, but lo, the unit has been a strength, after all. Bailey Ober is settling in as an obviously usable (though, just as obviously, vulnerable) keep-you-in-the-game guy. Woods Richardson was a disaster, but Zebby Matthews has looked just as good as Woods Richardson did bad.

Bradley is on the cusp of returning to a rotation that now includes Connor Prielipp as a full and semi-permanent member, with fellow hard-throwing lefty Kendry Rojas as a more provisional piece. With Woods Richardson out of that picture, the team has come round to enjoying both ample upside and enviable depth in their starting corps, by however circuitous a route. Ryan, Ober, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, and whichever of Abel and Rojas is the right mix of available and effective can be the starting pitching depth chart of a playoff team.

The (relatively) proactive fix of swapping Woods Richardson out for Matthews is echoed throughout the roster, where the team is (as expected) playing an even harder game of Whack-a-Mole. They entered the season with an utterly underpowered bullpen, and that unit still hasn't been good, so far. However, they're starting to cobble together a group that can be good, in the medium term. Already, they've churned through several external additions (Garrett Acton, Luis García, and Yoendrys Gómez), but more telling is what they've done with their internal options. Gone is Justin Topa, a roster casualty whom the team also couldn't trust anymore. Into the mix are Woods Richardson (who has a real chance to be useful in a long relief role, if deployed correctly) and Andrew Morris, who has unceremoniously claimed the mantle of relief ace. Rojas might yet spend some time in the pen, too, as the rotation gets healthier and stabilizes.

No team has gotten worse performances from its right fielders than the Twins, thanks to Wallner's all-around atrociousness, but he's now out of the frame. Minnesota is 26th in wins above average from third basemen, but now, Lewis is out of the way, too. The replacements for those players won't put the team in the top echelon at either spot, but they have a real chance to be better than Lewis and Wallner. The outline of a decent team is coming into focus.

That invites the question: What's next? What does the team need to do to keep improving, so they can take advantage of this unexpected opportunity to stay relevant all summer? Firstly, as the chart shows, things still aren't good at shortstop. Brooks Lee has responded better to the influence of new hitting coach Keith Beauregard than his fellow last-wave top prospects, Wallner and Lewis, but he's still only batting .248/.299/.388. He's doing a slightly better job of making contact against breaking and offspeed stuff, but that's the only notable change in his profile. Nor has he become a viable defensive shortstop. 

Lee almost certainly could play a solid third base, and his bat is playable. In the medium term, then, the move is obvious: call up Kaelen Culpepper, test him at short, and slide Lee over. That will be risky at any point this year, though, and Culpepper isn't quite ready for it yet. Right now, the team will stick with Lee at that position, and the first change we're likely to see will be a slow shift toward more matchup play.

Tristan Gray, Orlando Arcia and Ryan Kreidler form an underwhelming but extremely intriguing collection of role players on the infield. Gray brings a left-handed bat, with enough bat speed to be dangerous. Kreidler looked like he would never hit in the big leagues, but in a tiny sample this year, he's hitting in the big leagues. Arcia brings the most experience defensively, and while he'd be no more than a minor upgrade on Lee's glove at short, he would be a big step up from Luke Keaschall's glove work at second.

That brings us to Keaschall, who has belatedly pulled his OPS to the right side of .600. He's just not going to work as a defensive second baseman, though any real move to another position has to wait, right now. He can hit enough to outpace his defensive woes, though, and the team now has several guys on the roster whom Derek Shelton can use to mitigate the damage Keaschall can do in the field. 

It won't be easy for the team to sustain the momentum they've built by winning three of their last four series. Ryan Jeffers's absence looms large. There are guys on this roster overperforming, and guys already coming back to Earth after hot starts. (Witness Trevor Larnach's .217/.280/.326 batting line in May.) They have a 10-game road trip to survive, beginning Friday, in which they'll play the Red Sox, White Sox and Pirates. Don't forget, either, that this team is just 23-27. They haven't exactly surged. They've just maintained a decent pace longer than expected. 

However, the chance before them is real. By staying afloat into (at least) the final third of May, they've checked the box Tom Pohlad put on their to-do list over the winter, when he made the then-improbable claim that the team would contend this year. Pohlad said last month that he would supplement the roster via trade this summer, if new top executive Jeremy Zoll came to him with a chance to do so. Now, that feels less like a pipe dream and more like a possibility. By winning just enough to stay alive, Zoll, Shelton and the team have bought themselves enough time to fix some of their most glaring flaws.

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[Whitey333]

Contending team?  Mainly because they play in a terrible division.  They certainly are not serious contenders in the overall scheme of things.  I admit to this point they have played better than I thought.  It's fun watching them when they play decent baseball.  They have a long way to go to join the better teams

[mike8791]

Nice article Matt!  While my expectations for 2026 were as low as they've been in years, as we approach the 1/3 mark of the season, the Twins are still very much in contention.  Of course, this is much more attributable to the shockingly poor performance of the Tigers and Royals, but why kick a gift horse in the mouth?

As you point out, sub performances by Lewis and Wallner have hamstrung the offense, as has the bullpen muddle.  With Jeffers out now, the offense looks in worse shape.  Still, there have been some surprising contributions from guys like Clemens, Gray, and in a small sample size, Kreider.  No, this is not murderers  row, but at least there's a glimmer of hope that with the sure outs removed from the lineup, there is a stronger possibility that this lineup could trend towards an average offense.  And while the pen is still a mess, there has been some recent, albeit limited, success from guys like Morris, Banda, and Gomez.  We'll have to wait awhile to see if they're just a flash in the "pen" ,  but at least we have a little more hope for improvement.

But as you mention, despite the injuries, the rotation is cause for real optimism: Ryan is a s good as ever, Ober is at least serviceable, Mathews and Prielipp have given the rotation a big boost, and with Bradley and Abel on the mend, our SP looks like a strength.  The big question: do we have enough SP to allow for a trade of Ryan?  This is so important because Ryan is the one player on the team who could fill the glaring hole on this club - a bonafide cleanup hitter.  Not sure if Zoll is capable of achieving such an outcome, but if he could, it could be a step forward to real contention, even this year.  At least there's a glimmer of hope now!

[William K Johnson]

Beginning to worry about Keaschall's bat.  A lot of pop ups to the right side is usually an indication of a slow bat or misread of a pitch.

[arby58]

23 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Contending team?  Mainly because they play in a terrible division.  They certainly are not serious contenders in the overall scheme of things.  I admit to this point they have played better than I thought.  It's fun watching them when they play decent baseball.  They have a long way to go to join the better teams

With the exception of the East, the rest of the American League this year is a 'terrible division.' The  West is even worse than the Central. Right now, Cleveland has the third best record in the AL (and both those ahead of them are in the East), and the leader in the West is one game over .500. 

[Hunter4848]

I hope Tom Pohlad paid you handsomely for this propaganda puff piece. 

Just because we are a middling team in the worst division in baseball does not make them a playoff contender...

[jorgenswest]

There has been a lot of close games and entertaining baseball this year. The 162 matter to me.

[IndianaTwin]

21 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

 

…But as you mention, despite the injuries, the rotation is cause for real optimism: Ryan is a s good as ever, Ober is at least serviceable, Mathews and Prielipp have given the rotation a big boost, and with Bradley and Abel on the mend, our SP looks like a strength.  The big question: do we have enough SP to allow for a trade of Ryan?  This is so important because Ryan is the one player on the team who could fill the glaring hole on this club - a bonafide cleanup hitter.  Not sure if Zoll is capable of achieving such an outcome, but if he could, it could be a step forward to real contention, even this year.  At least there's a glimmer of hope now!

Are you suggesting trading Ryan for a bonifide cleanup hitter to improve year’s team?

That ain’t happening. Not because Ryan isn’t worth that, but because no team in contention is going to trade their cleanup hitter midseason. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Cleveland always surprises me. I'm not sure how they win as much as they do. But, alas, they've gained some separation. While I expect them to regress a little bit, along with the White Sox, I think Detroit will eventually right the ship just enough to make a run. The Twins could hang around in the AL Central for another few weeks, but it will be a tall task with this line up. Who would have thought the bullpen wouldn't be the main problem right now?!

There's always the path to the wildcard - that usually stays a jumbled mess well into September - but even with that, I think Seattle and Toronto will go on extended runs as they get healthy.

If being 'in it' was really a priority, the Twins would have approached the previous off-season much differently than they did. The only questions for me - when do they trade Ryan and Jeffers - and if / when do we see Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Mendez, etc..