Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober Are Not Inspiring the Most Confidence This Spring

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

On Tuesday, Joe Ryan made his spring debut, tossing three innings against the Rays, and on paper it was a successful start: no runs allowed on just a pair of hits. A deeper look shows that his stuff in the outing was middling, as reflected by zero strikeouts and just three swings-and-misses (all with the splitter) on 48 pitches. 

Was it the most encouraging day for a guy who didn't pitch in the first half of camp due to an injury scare, after posting a 4.67 ERA in the second half last year? No, but it's also not that worrisome. Ryan was shaking off the rust, like any other pitcher in his first spring exposure to live competition. Given his lack of a typical build-up, it was good to see him reach nearly 50 pitches. Ryan is apparently feeling good enough to join Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and potentially pitch in the championship game next Tuesday.   

It would be cool to see Ryan take the mound in such a high-stakes, high-profile spring setting. I've been enjoying the hell out of watching Byron Buxton take part in the WBC. But I also must admit the Twins fan in me feels a little uneasy about Ryan's unorthodox ramp-up this spring, in which he's coming off a lackluster 2025 finish and his back has already barked at him. 

I'm sure he's been building up on the side, but what we've seen officially from Ryan this spring is one three-inning appearance, with his stuff playing down. Now he's going to travel and possibly take the mound in a high-intensity environment where he'll surely be going full-bore. 

Ryan is a vital asset for the Twins, whether as the rotation leader on a surprisingly relevant team, or a trade chip leveraged to bolster the rebuild. Having him participate in the WBC feels to me like playing with fire. That said, it's a lot less concerning than what we've seen from Bailey Ober.

Last year, Ober posted a career-worst 5.10 ERA while lamenting his physical impairment and out-of-whack mechanics. He spent the offseason trying to get fully healthy and iron things out. But as soon as he got to camp, Ober expressed frustration that his progress wasn't carrying over. The Twins held him out of games for some time before he finally made his first Grapefruit League start last Friday, finally showcasing under the lights and in front of the radar guns. 

Like Ryan, Ober posted good results in his spring debut, holding the Braves scoreless in two frames. But here the underlying signs were more troubling: he averaged under 90 MPH with his fastball, down even from last year's reduced benchmark. Ober started again yesterday, and the velocity was down even further, with his fastball averaging 88.8 MPH and only once clocking in the 90s.

Ober insists that he's feeling much better than last year, so that's a plus. Spring training velocities can sometimes be overblown, but in Ober's case the fixation is understandable, especially given that he has a history of doing the opposite: showing up in camp with extra ticks of velo, prompting us to dream on what the 6-foot-9 right-hander would be capable of with a peristent mid-90s heater. 

The idea of Ober trying to get by while topping out in the upper-80s is more of a nightmare befitting his nickname. That's not to say he can't stay afloat with reduced velocity — as Matthew Trueblood wrote yesterday, the key might lie in fully harnessing his changeup — but his margin is thin, and the likelihood of returning to a rotation-fronting level is low. 

The Twins have seen positive signs this spring from some of their younger starting pitchers like Mick Abel, Taj Bradley and Kendry Rojas. That bodes well for the future of the rotation. But Minnesota's core veteran trio, upon which any plausible notion of short-term competitiveness was propped, is off to a very rocky start.

Pablo López suffered a season-ending injury on the first official day of camp. Ryan and Ober sat out the first half and haven't looked like themselves in early action. Now, Ryan is off to the WBC to continue his unconventional build-up, while Ober remains in Fort Myers to try and overcome his velo woes. 

There's still time for both veteran starters to instill some sense of confidence before the start of the season — a dominant outing from Ryan on the big stage and an uptick for Ober in his next couple outings would go a long way — but the clock is ticking. Less than two weeks to go until the opening series in Baltimore, where Ryan and Ober will theoretically be slated to pitch the first two games. 

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[Permanent Twins Fan]

Over the last couple of seasons, Bailey Ober has had significantly to many starts where he only went 4-5 innings because he was inefficient. Ober's start versus the Red Sox was very similiar to that. He went 2 2/3 with just one run, but he allowed 7 baserunner and threw 53 pitches. I would love to see Ober get back some of his old 2024 form, but at this point I don't think it is likely. He will probably get a pretty long leash this season, but if he keeps struggling, he might get forced out of the rotation after this season. At this point, his ceiling seems pretty low. I also have very little concern for Joe Ryan. Some of the stuff problems in his first start could be tied to still recovering from a back injury, and he still managed to be effective even if the underlying numbers didn't back it up, 

[Danchat]

I don't see much reason to worry about Ryan at this point... Ober is another story. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

22 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I don't see much reason to worry about Ryan at this point... Ober is another story. 

2nd’d on this. Ryan (barring health) will be fine. Ober has to show he is back to form before I feel confident on him at all

[Hunter4848]

Ober is cooked.

[The Great Hambino]

If there were any concerns about Ryan at all, he wouldn't be heading off to the WBC.  He's fine.

I'm starting to think Ober is no lock to finish the season in the rotation even if he's healthy.  I haven't been on the move-him-to-the-bullpen bandwagon so far, but I'm starting to see it. 

I'm sure they're keeping him in the rotation in lieu of the young guns to fulfill the competitive mandate, but their best chance at being competitive this year involves multiple young starters out-performing this version of Ober anyway, so they might as well move him over to the bullpen sooner than later.  It gives the young starters more time to develop against top-level lineups while arguably also giving themselves a higher ceiling (and lower floor, but I'm pretty over caring about the floor at this point).  Plus who knows what kind of boost Ober could give the pen if they can harvest some more velocity in shorter outings?

[jmlease1]

Not worried about Ryan. He'll be fine.

Too early to know on Ober; let's see where he is in his last start before camp breaks on his velocity; if he's averaging 90+mph and touching 92-93 then I think he'll be fine. And even if he's down a bit, it doesn't mean he won't be able to pitch, it just means he'll be more inconsistent and more like a 4-5 starter rather than a #2. 

Personally, I'm hoping that whatever happens, Bailey Ober kicks ass this season and shoves it in the face of every single person who wants to throw him into the tip.

I mean, congratulations to the trolls: y'all know how to get me wound up. 

[PatPfund]

I'm not worrying about Ryan yet, but mostly because there is too many other rotation, and I don't want to think about that. On Ober, opinions can be cheap (especially mine), but (as posted last fall) I wouldn't have offered arbitration to Ober. Love him, but he lives and dies with elite extension, and betting on a 30+ y.o. maintaining his flexibility is a bad bet. He also wasn't an MLB pitcher until he added some speed, and there is NO sign on the field he can live there at 88-89. Hopefully Zebby gets sharp in St Paul, because I doubt Ober is in the rotation on Memorial Day. (Hope I'm wrong. Which happens a lot!)

[Dman]

I just don't see Ober lasting the season.  If I'm Matthews, Morris and maybe Rojas I'd be ready.  Ober looks pretty shaky to me.  The starting five could be quite young this year. We'll see what Ober has left in the tank, but given his velocity isn't climbing back up it doesn't bode well for his future. 

[Linus]

23 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Not worried about Ryan. He'll be fine.

Too early to know on Ober; let's see where he is in his last start before camp breaks on his velocity; if he's averaging 90+mph and touching 92-93 then I think he'll be fine. And even if he's down a bit, it doesn't mean he won't be able to pitch, it just means he'll be more inconsistent and more like a 4-5 starter rather than a #2. 

Personally, I'm hoping that whatever happens, Bailey Ober kicks ass this season and shoves it in the face of every single person who wants to throw him into the tip.

I mean, congratulations to the trolls: y'all know how to get me wound up. 

I hear ya. Hopefully he’s healthy and just trying to get his mechanics straightened out. Even as is he would still be an acceptable #5 starter. We need all the starters we can get. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

We shouldn’t read too much into spring training performances.  They aren’t indicative of what is to follow. . . . Unless sometimes they are.  Actually I find them ridiculously difficult to extrapolate to the good or the bad.  

I’m always nervous about Twins players and injuries.  I’m not too nervous yet, but you’re correct.  Their latest outings weren’t terrible, but they didn’t make me think they were indestructible either.  At this point, I’m going to think in the long game and not worry yet, but your point is well taken.  

[TJSweens]

I had hoped the Twins would trade Ober in the off season. His performance to this point has done nothing to change that feeling. It's always baffled me that a guy 6'9 can't consistently sit in the 93-94 range. He was effective at 91-92. He is very hittable at 90. At 88-89, he's a batting practice pitcher. Either he regains his old velo or he is done.

[D.C Twins]

Alas... it may be ober for him... 

[TopGunn#22]

I agree with TJSweens.  I had hoped we could have traded Ober for something we needed, especially after Lopez was lost for the season.  The Twins are not competing for the divisional title this season.  They will not be a Wild Card team.  

Hanging onto Ryan until the trade deadline, while risky, is something I understand.  Hanging on to Ober, when the future is tied to Abel, Bradley, Matthews, SWR and to a lesser immediate extent, Connor Prielipp, I would have moved Ober while he still maintained a certain level of "value." 

There might have been hope that Ober would regain that smidge of velocity he needs to be effective and that in doing so, would make him quite a trade chip at the deadline, or sooner, as SP break down at all times and especially the most inconvenient.  And while I'll acknowledge it's still "kind of" early, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks in less than 3 innings does not instill confidence in me that Ober is going to get better.  He might.  But I'm not betting my house mortgage on it.   

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

I'm not worrying about Ryan yet, but mostly because there is too many other rotation, and I don't want to think about that. On Ober, opinions can be cheap (especially mine), but (as posted last fall) I wouldn't have offered arbitration to Ober. Love him, but he lives and dies with elite extension, and betting on a 30+ y.o. maintaining his flexibility is a bad bet. He also wasn't an MLB pitcher until he added some speed, and there is NO sign on the field he can live there at 88-89. Hopefully Zebby gets sharp in St Paul, because I doubt Ober is in the rotation on Memorial Day. (Hope I'm wrong. Which happens a lot!)

Declining arbitration on Ober would have been a firing offense for any GM. (I really don't understand the people who give up on players at the first sign of trouble; if you get rid of every player who has a rough season you're not going to have much of a team left...and you're going to see a lot more players have success in other team's uniforms)

Ober actually started out 2025 quite well, except for that initial start...which he never should have made. Rocco and Maki blew that one, starting a pitcher who was sick rather than drop down one in the rotation. A dumb decision that threw away a game. Part of the manager & pitching coach's job is protect players from themselves and sit guys when they aren't right, even if they try to do the ol' "trust me, I'm fine!" routine. (I mean, Buxton could have his arm ripped off by a combine harvester and he'd probably say he's good to go the next day.) The mechanics fell apart in June and while he never got all the way back on track...he was figuring out how to survive out there (10 starts in August & Sept and he had Game Scores of 50+ in 6 of them, 60+ in 4) even with less velocity. And it wasn't just against crap teams that had quit on the season: he pitched well against KC twice in that stretch.

If the velocity comes most of the way back, Ober should be fine, especially if the changeup is working. Maybe it won't get there and he's going to be just another back of the rotation dude going forward...but those guys still go for $10-12M on the open market. We're paying Ober $5.2M and still have another year of team control.

[mikelink45]

Not an inspiring story - especially if true. If our vets fail, it is too much to just rely on prospects.  But it is ST.  So I will wait and see.  Thanks for the review. 

[chpettit19]

26 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree with TJSweens.  I had hoped we could have traded Ober for something we needed, especially after Lopez was lost for the season.  The Twins are not competing for the divisional title this season.  They will not be a Wild Card team.  

Hanging onto Ryan until the trade deadline, while risky, is something I understand.  Hanging on to Ober, when the future is tied to Abel, Bradley, Matthews, SWR and to a lesser immediate extent, Connor Prielipp, I would have moved Ober while he still maintained a certain level of "value." 

There might have been hope that Ober would regain that smidge of velocity he needs to be effective and that in doing so, would make him quite a trade chip at the deadline, or sooner, as SP break down at all times and especially the most inconvenient.  And while I'll acknowledge it's still "kind of" early, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks in less than 3 innings does not instill confidence in me that Ober is going to get better.  He might.  But I'm not betting my house mortgage on it.   

What value did he have? He was hurt and awful last year. The Twins could've dumped him for salary relief, but until he regains velo and shows he's healthy and effective, there was no trading him "for something we needed." Nobody was going to give anything valuable up for the chance to see if Ober is toast.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Declining arbitration on Ober would have been a firing offense for any GM. (I really don't understand the people who give up on players at the first sign of trouble; if you get rid of every player who has a rough season you're not going to have much of a team left...and you're going to see a lot more players have success in other team's uniforms)

Ober actually started out 2025 quite well, except for that initial start...which he never should have made. Rocco and Maki blew that one, starting a pitcher who was sick rather than drop down one in the rotation. A dumb decision that threw away a game. Part of the manager & pitching coach's job is protect players from themselves and sit guys when they aren't right, even if they try to do the ol' "trust me, I'm fine!" routine. (I mean, Buxton could have his arm ripped off by a combine harvester and he'd probably say he's good to go the next day.) The mechanics fell apart in June and while he never got all the way back on track...he was figuring out how to survive out there (10 starts in August & Sept and he had Game Scores of 50+ in 6 of them, 60+ in 4) even with less velocity. And it wasn't just against crap teams that had quit on the season: he pitched well against KC twice in that stretch.

If the velocity comes most of the way back, Ober should be fine, especially if the changeup is working. Maybe it won't get there and he's going to be just another back of the rotation dude going forward...but those guys still go for $10-12M on the open market. We're paying Ober $5.2M and still have another year of team control.

100% agreed. 150 innings of 5 era Bailey Ober is still better than 100 innings of Zebby’s 5 era plus 50 innings of the 9th to 16th relievers in the pecking order.

without Pablo, this rotation desperately needs to eat innings from that god-awful bullpen

[CRF]

Ryan will be fine. Ober has to be at least given the chance at the beginning of the season, to see if he still has anything. If he's getting shelled out there, it's time to get one of the kids in there. Ober isn't going to make or break us anyway...we're gonna be pretty bad no matter what. 

[Bodie]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

What value did he have? He was hurt and awful last year. The Twins could've dumped him for salary relief, but until he regains velo and shows he's healthy and effective, there was no trading him "for something we needed." Nobody was going to give anything valuable up for the chance to see if Ober is toast.

Package him with Wallner and Larnach, and we get... disappointment. Six of one (trade), half dozen of the other (keep em).

[Western SD Fan]

My concern is more on Ober than Ryan similar to how many have posted on here.  Ober has lived off the concept that his fastball could look like 93-95 mph even though it has only ever been 93-90 mph due to his height and long stride that allows his release point to be closer to the plate.  Ober has had to adjust his mechanics twice within a year.  First when he injured his hip and knee last year and played through it and second when he has come back from it during the winter and during ST.  He may feel better, but getting his mechanics back will be the last part of the recovery process.  Considering Zebby's ST so far, Ober is still one of top 5 pitchers in the Twins rotation.  I can see a scenario where he is the number 4 or 5 starter at the beginning of the season so there may be a possibility of skipping a start if he is still not 100%.

[h2oface]

Ober, lots of luck to you. You will lose most of your remaining apologists soon. Ryan should have been season opener at least once, if not more, instead of Lopez, but Falvey was in love with his trade and was needing to reinforce his decision to bolster his perception of himself by fans, etc. 

Just curious Mr. Nelson, what are you enjoying about hitless Buxton’s play in the WBC? I’m enjoying Crow-Amstrong performing like an All-Star and his big clutch hits. I guess the stolen base. That was fun. The RBI was by getting hit, so for me, not so fun but stressful, especially getting hit on the arm.

[Jeff K]

While there is cause for concern with Ober, I believe he will (and should) get a long leash to start the season.  It seems unlikely that his performance will fall below the level of a 5th starter; although the Twins certainly need more than that.  He does NOT seem like a good bullpen candidate as bullpens mostly depend upon flamethrowers.

[TopGunn#22]

Chpetitt19, we, meaning you and I, honestly have no idea what kind of "value" Ober had or has.  Neither of us has any solid information on that.  BBTV has Ober's value at 18.0 which is down a bit from his off season 21.0.

That doesn't make me "right" because I used that as the basis for my comment.  I would agree with you on assessing his value after last season and so far in spring training.  I'm not impressed with Ober at all.  But the truth of Ober's value probably lays somewhere in between that 18.0 and zero. 

I would just say that with pitching injuries a certainty, probably every major league team would be interested in at least discussing a trade.  If the offers were low-ball specials I can see rebuffing them.  But in the bigger picture, I'd rather see young pitchers like Abel, Bradley, Zebby and possibly Prielipp get the Ober innings and get what I can for him in a trade. 

Maybe Ober scuffles himself to semi-mediocrity and we can get a bag of balls sometime this season from a pitching needy team.  But the future is not with Baily Ober.  His mythical "value" stands at 18.0 right now, but I only see it getting worse as the season progresses.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, PatPfund said:

I'm not worrying about Ryan yet, but mostly because there is too many other rotation, and I don't want to think about that. On Ober, opinions can be cheap (especially mine), but (as posted last fall) I wouldn't have offered arbitration to Ober. Love him, but he lives and dies with elite extension, and betting on a 30+ y.o. maintaining his flexibility is a bad bet. He also wasn't an MLB pitcher until he added some speed, and there is NO sign on the field he can live there at 88-89. Hopefully Zebby gets sharp in St Paul, because I doubt Ober is in the rotation on Memorial Day. (Hope I'm wrong. Which happens a lot!)

He’s 30 THIS year.

He pitched 146 innings last year (27 starts)  and was hurt for at least 50% of those innings.

He had a terrible 5.10 ERA in ‘25 but his career ERA is 4.08.

His ERA and BA against were solid from the Windup but poor from the Stretch ……..seems like the physical ailment and bad habit issues revolved around pitching from the stretch. I would think this would help him & others define the issues.

Not giving him arbitration $$ (considering his health issues & determination to keep pitching for the team’s sake) is a bizarre thought, IMO.

Lopez - Ryan - Festa - Matthews all missed segments of ‘25 while Ober pitched til he couldn’t.

Ryan, a solid pitcher (nothing to do with Ober), has never had a full healthy season so anointing him, “just fine” is maybe a bit of wishful thinking?

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Chpetitt19, we, meaning you and I, honestly have no idea what kind of "value" Ober had or has.  Neither of us has any solid information on that.  BBTV has Ober's value at 18.0 which is down a bit from his off season 21.0.

That doesn't make me "right" because I used that as the basis for my comment.  I would agree with you on assessing his value after last season and so far in spring training.  I'm not impressed with Ober at all.  But the truth of Ober's value probably lays somewhere in between that 18.0 and zero. 

I would just say that with pitching injuries a certainty, probably every major league team would be interested in at least discussing a trade.  If the offers were low-ball specials I can see rebuffing them.  But in the bigger picture, I'd rather see young pitchers like Abel, Bradley, Zebby and possibly Prielipp get the Ober innings and get what I can for him in a trade. 

Maybe Ober scuffles himself to semi-mediocrity and we can get a bag of balls sometime this season from a pitching needy team.  But the future is not with Baily Ober.  His mythical "value" stands at 18.0 right now, but I only see it getting worse as the season progresses.

Not sure what media you’re following but Abel - Bradley - Zebby are all getting their own innings regardless of whether Ober is on the Staff or not - right? They are in a mix of 4-5-6 on list of starters, worst case……..probably higher.

Prielipp is only half a season removed from Matt Cantinerro territory, relative to health. He’s not MLB ready for starter innings & his pitching performance through ‘25 didn’t/doesn’t warrant displacing anyone.

If Ober pitches with good health - then sucks - I’m all for making moves. Trying to trade him with reduced velocity and coming off a 5.10 ERA season doesn’t seem like a “seller’s” position. He pitched through injuries most of ‘25 - but he showed up! Ryan - Lopez - Matthews - Festa were all down at varying times through the season……. Ober was shutdown late.

[JD-TWINS]

23 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

We shouldn’t read too much into spring training performances.  They aren’t indicative of what is to follow. . . . Unless sometimes they are.  Actually I find them ridiculously difficult to extrapolate to the good or the bad.  

I’m always nervous about Twins players and injuries.  I’m not too nervous yet, but you’re correct.  Their latest outings weren’t terrible, but they didn’t make me think they were indestructible either.  At this point, I’m going to think in the long game and not worry yet, but your point is well taken.  

You’re right, nobody has a crystal ball…….poor Springs can lead to solid seasons just like Great Springs can result in mediocrity or worse. We’ll soon see.

Fingers crossed for ‘26!!!!

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

While there is cause for concern with Ober, I believe he will (and should) get a long leash to start the season.  It seems unlikely that his performance will fall below the level of a 5th starter; although the Twins certainly need more than that.  He does NOT seem like a good bullpen candidate as bullpens mostly depend upon flamethrowers.

Chris Bassitt seems fine in the bullpen, as an example …….. Justin Topa or Bailey Ober in the 6th/7th - your choice? If he stumbles and they are somehow competitive but not performing, I’d give him a shot at getting 3-4 outs at a time.

[Fatbat]

We need all the sharp pitching we can get April thru October . March is less important. Ober and Ryan will be fine. 

[PatPfund]

I get not offering Ober arbitration was a bit of a hot take, BUT… this team has a budget issue, and paying Ober (who may be washed up) and Larnach (who is MLB-mediocre on O and defensively unplayable) $9 million is a waste of money. You could have signed Ober for less (with performance bonuses), let Larnach go, and had enough money to sign someone like Littell or Giolito to fill the gap that popped up.

@JD-TWINS, technically Ober is 31 this year (his birthday is in July). He turned 30 last year. And, yep, he was hurt last year for over 50% of his innings, and he couldn’t pitch at the start of camp. Not sure how that is a point in your favor. I’m a giant Ober fan; I frankly think he hurt himself trying to extend in ways his body really can’t any more. I have no questions about his hearth and guts, but being a fan doesn’t blind me to the strong possibility his days as a top rotation starter are over. (Check Baseball Reference to see how quickly elite extension Tim Lincecum went from Cy Young level to bad to out of baseball.

@jmlease1 I agree Ober was great until he wasn’t, but again, he was still unable to pitch at the start of camp, has underwhelmed in his two appearances so far, and appears to be regressing. Also, not offering arbitration does NOT mean losing a player, especially one with small value on the open market (which is Ober in a nutshell). And FYI, Zack Littell got signed for $3 million this year with a $4 million buyout for next year (so $7 million committed) with the Nationals. I’d bet he has a healthier/better year than Ober. (Because I don’t think the velo is coming back, and I’m afraid one of my favorite Twins will prove unhealthy again or un-useable in the rotation by mid-May.)