Twins Ace Pablo López Facing "Strong Likelihood" of Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

[GNess]

Pablo is not only the Twins' best SP, he was a crucial leader for this young collection of players.

USAFChief said it best, brutal.

[Matthew Trueblood]

3 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

I mean it's clearly related. We've seen it many times before. 

Not as many times as we've seen people cleave to a causal explanation for coincidences... :) 

[TJSweens]

At this point, I renew my appeal not to move Prielipp to the pen. There is now going to another rotation opportunity for a young arm. Stretch Prielipp out and could well get an opportunity after the trade deadline. 

[CRF]

15 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I want this to be super clear: they took an MRI at the time of that injury and it was clean. Zoll stressed that today. This injury is UNRELATED to the scare in September.

I know what they said last year, and I know what Zoll said this morning. I just find it very hard to believe. In any event, he's done for the year, and we probably went from 90 losses to over 100. It's gonna be another very long season.

[mickster]

21 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Wow.  Will this change the FO thinking prior to the season?  Would they consider going all in on a rebuild now?  Expect not as most teams aren't looking for a major trade right now.  But what if as opening day approaches?

Guess we are now looking at 2 of Festa, Matthews, Abel and Bradley, rather than one.  Can one of them take that last big step to being our next ACE.  Please?

I want Festa in the BP for good.   the others I am ok with, but Ryan has to be the stud Ace followed by OBer and SWR.

[LewFordLives]

20 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I want this to be super clear: they took an MRI at the time of that injury and it was clean. Zoll stressed that today. This injury is UNRELATED to the scare in September.

If it is unrelated, then when did the injury occur?  Does anyone actually believe it happened on the first day of squad workouts?  Even the Twins aren't that unlucky.

This just sucks.

To all the young guys vying for a spot in the rotation, now is your chance to show us what you got.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If the Twins are ever going to make their way back to contention, it would have to be on the shoulders (literally) of SWR, Bradley, Abel, and Matthews. They're about to find out exactly what they have there.

Side note, I didn't include Joe Ryan in that list because I'm hard pressed to find any scenario where he is on the roster beyond this season.

[AceWrigley]

Lucas Giolito anyone?

[Danchat]

9 minutes ago, CRF said:

I know what they said last year, and I know what Zoll said this morning. I just find it very hard to believe. In any event, he's done for the year, and we probably went from 90 losses to over 100. It's gonna be another very long season.

I don't think Lopez is worth 10+ wins... 

[LA Vikes Fan]

This sucks in pretty much every way. Such is the risk when you sign pitchers to multi-year contracts. It seem rare that any team gets good years throughout the contract. There's usually an injury or two that causes at least one of those years to crater.    

I absolutely would not sign Lucas Giolito or anyone like him. This is now the opportunity to see what level of pitching depth we actually have. Ryan, Ober and SWR are locks; Bradley probably is too (assuming no more injuries). The  door is now open for Matthews and Abel, probably both since there will be a 10-15 day IL stint for at least one or two of the top 5 if not all 5 of them. I would still move Festa to the BP but my bet is he will stay as a starter for awhile given all of the veteran bullpen guys we have signed. With Banda, Hendricks, Rogers, Chafin, and Merryweather, there's plenty of mediocrity to fill up the pen without Festa. 

[bean5302]

11 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

If it is unrelated, then when did the injury occur?  Does anyone actually believe it happened on the first day of squad workouts?  Even the Twins aren't that unlucky.

This just sucks.

To all the young guys vying for a spot in the rotation, now is your chance to show us what you got.

Yes. Strains happen instantly. They are acute. Lopez didn't say he was experiencing pain in the first inning or second inning. It happened at the beginning of the 3rd simulated inning. UCL tears do not slowly evolve over months.

[TopGunn#22]

This is just SO...TWINSY !!! 

I have believed the Twins should have accepted the obvious and sold high on some of their "stars" this off season, stockpile the young talent, introduce some of that talent in 2026, get more of that talent on the field in 2027, (whenever the players and owners decide it's time to play baseball), and then by 2028, be poised to compete with purpose in the A.L. Central.

There should be some kind of new economic model for MLB in 2027-2028, and the Tigers will be without Tarik Skubal.  Pablo was one of the better trade chips the Twins held.  Now that has blown up in their faces.  I would expect a bigger sell off than the self immolation of the bullpen this trade deadline. 

I feel bad for Pablo.  He's such a likeable player, a good leader and ambassador of the game, and for the Twins.  But his big hope was to be traded to a contender in 2026, and now he's hoping to be able to play sometime in 2027...depending on when MLB decides they want to play ball.  

 

[LewFordLives]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I would still move Festa to the BP but my bet is he will stay as a starter for awhile given all of the veteran bullpen guys we have signed. With Banda, Hendricks, Rogers, Chafin, and Merryweather, there's plenty of mediocrity to fill up the pen without Festa. 

Agreed. I would move Festa to the pen in any event. They are missing a big power arm at the end. Maybe Festa can be that guy.

[wavedog]

Well, this sucks.  Will miss his pitching and leadership.  For a low payroll team that the Twins are this is is a killer as well.   It will end up that we paid Lopez $66M for the 2025-2027 seasons and we may get 2 partial seasons out of the deal.  Don't know if we had any insurance to cover a portion.   To be optimistic - hope this gives a young starter a chance to blossom.  

[CRF]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Strains happen instantly. They are acute. Lopez didn't say he was experiencing pain in the first inning or second inning. It happened at the beginning of the 3rd simulated inning. UCL tears do not slowly evolve over months.

Actually, they can and do happen over a period of time. It's call "accumulated microtrauma", and they lead to one final break/tear. Each pitch can cause tiny, barely noticeable tears, which accumulate over time. I'm not a doctor, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Wow.  Will this change the FO thinking prior to the season?  Would they consider going all in on a rebuild now?  Expect not as most teams aren't looking for a major trade right now.  But what if as opening day approaches?

Guess we are now looking at 2 of Festa, Matthews, Abel and Bradley, rather than one.  Can one of them take that last big step to being our next ACE.  Please?

Good video chat on YouTube re just that. Consensus is this makes a trade or significant FA signing far less likely, and actually makes Pablo less marketable after 2027,.

[rdehring]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Strains happen instantly. They are acute. Lopez didn't say he was experiencing pain in the first inning or second inning. It happened at the beginning of the 3rd simulated inning. UCL tears do not slowly evolve over months.

Another question related to my question above.  Would he have been pitching that third inning yesterday had he not been preparing for the WBC?  

[Brett]

I think we’ll need $2 beers all the time, not just pregame.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

55 minutes ago, TJSweens said:

At this point, I renew my appeal not to move Prielipp to the pen. There is now going to another rotation opportunity for a young arm. Stretch Prielipp out and could well get an opportunity after the trade deadline. 

MAYBE.  IF the reason to move Prielipp to the pen was that they didn’t think that his arm will hold up to a starter’s workload, then moving him to the pen is the right thing to do, both for the pitcher and for the team.   IF they were moving him from what was perceived as a logjam (I hate that word actually) of starters, then by all means keep him stretched out as a starter.  We don’t actually know with certainty what the situation is/was with Prielipp, as we can only guess.  

A few years back there was another guy who they didn’t think would hold up to a starter’s workload named Duran.  They chose wisely in that case.  Regardless of which direction they go, let’s hope that they can choose wisely again.  

[DJL44]

56 minutes ago, howeda7 said:

Trading Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers now would be stupid. Teams have their rosters set  and once you trade one you lose all leverage. The best move would be to sign someone like Giolito and still try to compete, then sell at the deadline (including Giolito) in the likely event that you don't.

Doubling down would be stupid. They tried to thread the needle with a "stars and scrubs" roster. They just lost one of their most important stars. This drops the already low playoff odds in half. Those players will be worth less at the trade deadline then they are worth today. They lost all the leverage when that MRI result came back.

The plan was "if everything goes right, we can compete". That plan is already in the garbage can. The new plan has to be getting younger players ready to compete in 2027.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

This situation sucks. . . . a lot.  Taking Pablo out of the rotation undoubtedly makes the team worse.  For a team whose competitiveness was already hanging by a thread it’s doubly brutal.  Let’s hope that some of these young/inexperienced pitchers can come through and develop quickly into what they can be.  Sometimes when faced with a pressure situation, players can step up to a degree well beyond what you would expect.   I’m rooting for that to happen with Bradley/Festa/Matthews, et al.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Moving forward rather than looking back and lamenting (which is completely justified and understandable), what is the situation with insured contracts?  What very little I do know is that the insurance doesn’t cover little things that happen during the year and that it does tend to cover injuries that result in missed seasons.  Do we know if the Twins had insured Pablo’s contract and to what degree?  If they can recover sufficient funds, perhaps a late signing of Lucas Giolito would be in order.  

[Patzky]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Doubling down would be stupid. They tried to thread the needle with a "stars and scrubs" roster. They just lost one of their most important stars. This drops the already low playoff odds in half. Those players will be worth less at the trade deadline then they are worth today. They lost all the leverage when that MRI result came back.

The plan was "if everything goes right, we can compete". That plan is already in the garbage can. The new plan has to be getting younger players ready to compete in 2027.

2027.. is a pipedream right now 

[Woof Bronzer]

Can we rebuild now?

[Mike Sixel]

This sucks. Also, good thing they didn't trade Ryan and start the rebuild more..../s

[NYCTK]

50 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Strains happen instantly. They are acute. Lopez didn't say he was experiencing pain in the first inning or second inning. It happened at the beginning of the 3rd simulated inning. UCL tears do not slowly evolve over months.

 

So, I don't know much about pitching injuries so I want to ask the question: Let's say the Twins did a proper tear down and traded away Pablo this winter. Would this have potentially been a red flag in a physical? 

[howeda7]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Doubling down would be stupid. They tried to thread the needle with a "stars and scrubs" roster. They just lost one of their most important stars. This drops the already low playoff odds in half. Those players will be worth less at the trade deadline then they are worth today. They lost all the leverage when that MRI result came back.

The plan was "if everything goes right, we can compete". That plan is already in the garbage can. The new plan has to be getting younger players ready to compete in 2027.

Fans on this site represent the hardcore of the hardcore would rather watch rookies go 60-102 then veterans go 80-82. I get that.

 

This organization is as low as it's been with the public since contraction. But it is not at the bottom. Trading Buxton, Ryan and Jeffers now after what Tom Pohlad has said would absolutely nuke any attendance or TV ratings for 2026. There will then be a long lockout. You're making the smoking PR crater they will have to climb out of even bigger. For what? Another AAAA pitcher or two. There are bigger issues at stake.

Plus, you will get a lot more of a return for Ryan and Jeffers in July then you will now. Sure they might get hurt too, but it's not smart to bail now and sell for a 1/3 discount.

Simply taking some of the insurance $$ on Pablo's contract and signing a competent replacement isn't exactly "doubling down." It's what's almost every other organization would do in this spot, instead of attempting a complete 180 on the season's plans in the middle of Spring Training.

[SarasotaBill]

Now there's no choice but to unload everything at the trade deadline.

Use 1st half to increase value of anyone on their last year or next to last year.

2nd half is for development for players with more than two years before free agency.

[Woof Bronzer]

10 minutes into spring training and the baseball gods tell T3 the same thing all available data is telling him: "you aren't competing this year".   Will T3 listen?

10 minutes into spring training and the baseball gods punish the FO for not trading Lopez in the offseason.  He literally has zero value now, and may not ever have much value again.  There is a lesson to be learned here.  Will T3 learn it?  

 

 

[Brandon]

****

 

Well let's see how serious Tom Pohlads is about competing.  Let's go sign Giolito to a 1 year or 2 year deal ...