Reviewing the Twins' Organizational Talent Landscape Entering 2026

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Last week, I gradually rolled out my ranking of the top 20 player assets in the Twins organization heading into the new year. The purpose of this annual exercise is to try and blend the big-picture view with the the short term. Accounting for the team's present and future, viewing players as pieces of a strategic vision, which players matter most? 

If interested, you can read the blurbs and explanations for each ranking in Part 1 (16-20), Part 2 (11-15), Part 3 (6-10) and Part 4 (1-5). But here's a recap of the list, along with each player's original method of acquisition:

1. Walker Jenkins, OF (Draft - 1st Rd)
2. Luke Keaschall, 2B (Draft - 2nd Rd)
3. Joe Ryan, RHP (Trade)
4. Pablo Lopez, RHP (Trade)
5. Kaelen Culpepper, SS (Draft - 1st Rd)
6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (Trade)
7. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF (Int'l Signing)
8. Byron Buxton, OF (Draft - 1st Rd)
9. Mick Abel, RHP (Trade)
10. Taj Bradley, RHP (Trade) 
11. Zebby Matthews, RHP (Draft - 8th Rd)
12. Matt Wallner, OF (Draft - 1st Rd)
13. Royce Lewis, 3B (Draft - 1st Rd)
14. Eduardo Tait, C (Trade)
15. David Festa, RHP (Draft - 13th Rd)
16. Connor Prielipp, LHP (Draft - 2nd Rd)
17. Bailey Ober, RHP (Draft - 12th Rd)
18. Brooks Lee, SS (Draft - 1st Rd)
19. Ryan Jeffers, C (Draft - 2nd Rd)
20. Marek Houston, SS (Draft - 1st Rd)

Today I'm going to riff on this list a little bit, using it as an opportunity to dig deeper into the system's strengths and weaknesses, the next layer of talent, and the tightrope of a timeline that the Minnesota Twins are trying to walk.

Future Meets Present
Reading through the top five is admittedly a bit jarring: two veteran frontline starters sandwiched by a couple of prospects who've yet to debut, and Keaschall with his whole 50 games of MLB experience. That's the challenge that I enjoy about compiling these rankings — zooming out for a multi-year view, and trying to construct the sweet-spot vision for a winning window.

The Twins are very much attempting to thread the needle of present and future. They're holding their veteran stars and passing up the opportunity to go all-in on a rebuild. To an extent I admire that, and agree with it. Ryan, Lopez and Buxton are three of the biggest success stories in modern franchise history, fully realized. You cannot take for granted that you're going to have a proven foundation this strong again anytime soon. 

But there's a ton of work to do around those three. It's telling that they are the only proven veteran performers in the top 10, aside from Woods Richardson who's sort of crossing over that threshold. 

Everyone else ranked 10 or higher is unproven youth. But it's MLB-ready youth: they've all debuted in the majors or on the verge of it. Can this wave collectively make an impact fast enough to accomplish something while Lopez and Ryan are still here? That's the story of the Twins for the next two years.

Top Talent Isn't Bought (But Can Be Traded For)
Looking at the origins of the 20 players on this list, not one came aboard as a free agent. The Twins have amassed most of their top talent through the draft, and usually in the first couple rounds. Only one player on the list (Rodriguez) was an international signing, which reflects a glaring weakness in Minnesota's development engine.

Five of the organization's top 10 assets were acquired via trade. If the Twins were to bring in any other player this offseason who'd have a chance at cracking this top 20 and significantly shaking up the high-end talent pool, I have no doubt it would be via trade. Of course, that also requires giving to get. 

There is one abundant player type on my list and it's right-handed pitchers, who occupy eight of the 20 spots. Trading from this pool would make a lot of sense if the Twins are aiming to acquire, say, an impact bat. Woods Richardson and Ober are names that stand out as possibilities, if indeed the front office is shutting down requests for Ryan and Lopez. You could also seemingly live with trading one guy from the closely-bunched Matthews/Bradley/Abel group, for the right return.

Rethinking the 2025 Trade Deadline
When the Twins front office did what they did at the deadline, I was furious. I certainly understood the decision to sell, but taking it to such an extreme — dumping Carlos Correa's salary for nothing, trading the entire bullpen away — left me feeling extremely sour.

As I factor the new additions into the rankings and consider these moves as asset exchanges, I start to feel ... a little better. Last year I had Griffin Jax ranked 10th, and this year I have Taj Bradley ranked 10th. An even swap in that regard, made palatable by the starter-reliever value gap (for now) and the two extra years of team control. 

The Jhoan Duran trade was one of the few moves from the deadline that I actually really liked, and this year's ranking illustrates why: Duran was ranked 11th on my list in 2025, and the Twins flipped him for a distinguished, high-upside catcher (ranking 14th on my list) and an MLB-ready pitching prospect with tons of team control (ranking 9th). You can easily see the logic in that trade.

The Louie Varland trade, maybe not so much. Varland wasn't in my top 20 last year but he definitely would've been this year following a bullpen breakthrough. The Twins traded him for Alan Roden and Kendry Rojas, both of whom are on the fringe of these rankings but couldn't make the cut following rough debuts in the system. I really hope the front office is right about at least one of those guys because that decision continues to bother me.

The Natural Target for Championship Contention: 2027
Do the Twins have realistic hopes to contend for a World Series this year? I would say no. The best-case scenario, and what I surmise they are aspiring for, is a .500-ish season — one good enough to rejuvenate some fan interest, and justify (in their minds) a more significant investment the following year. 

Because that's when it's got to happen, if it's going to. By that time, most of the top prospects featured in these rankings will have arrived. Ryan and Lopez will be in their final years under contract. Buxton will be in his second-to-last, and another year into his 30s. Hopefully a bullpen will have taken shape through the experimentation that takes place in 2026. 

Now, there are two hitches in this plan. First of all, there might not be a 2027 MLB season, or at least not a normal one, with the CBA expiring at the end of 2026 and many anticipating a lockout. But even taking that out of the equation, the Twins have to reach 2027 in a state where they are still intact, and willing to further invest. 

'“I don’t think that as the landscape, what I see right now, that we should put a significant investment into the team of (an additional) $50 (million) or $60 million,” Tom Pohlad said in a recent presser when he took over the ownership mantle. “But I don’t think we’re far off from that."

Well, he and the Twins need to be convinced of it within one year. And honestly that feels like a stretch. Minnesota was the worst team in baseball in the second half of 2025 and the roster has barely changed. It's reasonable to hope that they can right the ship gradually, but in the first half of 2026, the going will be tough. It just will. They have no bullpen, and a grim defensive outlook. The prospects aren't quite here yet. They're facing some serious challenges on offense.

If the front office gets to the upcoming trade deadline and they're 10 games under .500, plagued by many of the same issues of the past two years, are they really going to say, "Let's stay the course and hope everything comes together next year"? Or are they going to do what's probably prudent: trade Ryan and Lopez, and Buxton too if he wants out. Load up on more controllable young assets. Commit fully to the rebuild.

I find no joy in reaching this conclusion but I think it's the undeniable reality the Twins face. The decision to hold onto Ryan, Lopez and Buxton seems more motivated by preserving a semblance of fan favor as opposed to a baseball decision. Pohlad has in fact been fairly open about that. But at some point, baseball decision-making needs to take control, and the Twins are walking a very fine line in trying to guide this current multi-generational core to championship contention within a tight one-year window. It's a notion that could fizzle out quickly with another stumble out of the gates.

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[TL]

This is probably the right approach. Hold on to your front-line starters to lead the way while expecting (hoping) 2-3 others step up in a big way and some of the young position players show material improvement.

This gives your first year manager a chance but also lets the team restock if not enough players step up to help the team contend. 

You’re probably trading Lopez and Ryan within the next 12 months do you don't lose them for a draft pick. Only question is whether it is before the deadline or after the season, which would mean we made a playoff push. In that world you can still trade them after the season for a big return. 

[LastOnePicked]

"The decision to hold onto Ryan, Lopez and Buxton seems more motivated by preserving a semblance of fan favor as opposed to a baseball decision."

This. And that's why I have little to no hope for the future under the new Pohlad. This offseason was the ideal time to make difficult decisions for the good of the club moving forward. Keeping these three (all of whom will see their trade value drop as the season progresses) without supplementing the roster in meaningful ways is simply kicking the can down the road - something we've seen this club do too often over the last three years.

And it's also silly, because there are hardly any fans left to favor. Attendance is already below the Metrodome days, and that's with Lopez, Ryan and Buxton. Those three names won't make the Twins big again - only a championship run can do that.

[mike8791]

Nice summary!  Glad to see you are more positive on the selloff.  As set forth in your 20 top value players, the Twins seem to have massively strengthened their pipe line, especially in the rotation.  This should be a strength for the next couple years at least, and hopefully longer even with the departure of Lopez and Ryan.  It also offers an opportunity to strengthen the lineup now by a trade  of Ober and one of Mathews, Festa, Abel or Bradley for a badly needed offensive addition.  For example, how about  a 1B who would add to offense and defense, thereby relegating Bell to DH.  Maybe Coby Mayo or Shaw/Ballasteros from Cubs?

It is a fine line the FO is walking, though.  An offensive resurgence is only possible by a resurgence of at least 2 of Lewis, Lee, Wallner; otherwise a .500 record looks out of reach this year.  And the most obvious weakness - the bullpen - has not been addressed at all.  As FA names go off the board, the scant # of quality relievers remaining gives little hope for improvement .  Looking at Sands, Topa, and Funderburk to be reliable late-inning stalwarts is a pipe dream,  as is the expectation that a trio of totally unproven minor leaguers like Prielipp, Festa and Mathews can adequately fill the bullpen.

Falvey's inaction in this regard is a fireable offense in any organization that cares about winning.  I guess Derek got lucky to find one of the few orgs who do not.

[miracleb]

Seems like I am feeling much better than most about the Varland trade.  Guaranteed Toronto would want to "take that trade back" if they could right now.  He wasn't very good for them after the trade.  Varland is 28 years old and literally had 4 VERY good months with the Twins last year.......and not much else.  If he can duplicate those same 4 months last year over the next two-three years.....Toronto "wins" the trade and I am happy for Louis Varland.  History says...that won't happen.

[Woof Bronzer]

Good piece but a little muddled.  Nick says the Twins were the worst team in baseball over the second half but then says .500 should be the reasonable goal for 26.  How?  How exactly are the Twins going to improve by 25 wins over their post-deadline pace by adding Josh Bell?  

[bean5302]

Status quo is all I see with this ownership group. Same exact plan as always. Mulligan, Mulligan, Mulligan, Do Over, Mulligan.

The Twins have basically 4 players and 22 question marks. This is how the Colorado Rockies operate, except Rockies games are fun to attend. Thinking a .500 season will get fans interested is incomprehensible to me.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Seems like I am feeling much better than most about the Varland trade.  Guaranteed Toronto would want to "take that trade back" if they could right now.  He wasn't very good for them after the trade.  Varland is 28 years old and literally had 4 VERY good months with the Twins last year.......and not much else.  If he can duplicate those same 4 months last year over the next two-three years.....Toronto "wins" the trade and I am happy for Louis Varland.  History says...that won't happen.

Varland had more playoff appearances than anyone else in post-season history……… that, and everything said by anyone that was asked in the Toronto organization, it seems they thought he was pretty good.

That said, I think the “risk” for the upside Rojas brings, was worthwhile. The results Rojas brings will determine who wins the trade IMO.

[JD-TWINS]

23 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Status quo is all I see with this ownership group. Same exact plan as always. Mulligan, Mulligan, Mulligan, Do Over, Mulligan.

The Twins have basically 4 players and 22 question marks. This is how the Colorado Rockies operate, except Rockies games are fun to attend. Thinking a .500 season will get fans interested is incomprehensible to me.

Ditto on that last thought regarding Fan Interest.

[Nashvilletwin]

59 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but a little muddled.  Nick says the Twins were the worst team in baseball over the second half but then says .500 should be the reasonable goal for 26.  How?  How exactly are the Twins going to improve by 25 wins over their post-deadline pace by adding Josh Bell?  

You are right on the money.  Other than the overall randomness of professional baseball and long shot wagers on resurgent/emerging talents, the doom and gloom expectations are merited.  There has been nothing done to-date to even minimally change that narrative for the positive. And, btw, that’s both on and off the field as T-Cubed and Shelton cannot yet be projected to be significant updgrades over the Nephew and Rocco, respectively, and the architect of the current mess, Falvey, seems to still be pulling (his usual) strings.

Having said that, there are a few things I’m actually very interested in seeing/monitoring this season and these things will be the basis on which success or failure should ultimately be based (given W-L success is unlikely gravy at this point).

1. How do our current crop of young major leaguers, many of whom arguably have had their developments mismanaged by Rocco, et al, respond to a new manager? These players include Lewis, Wallner, Martin, Lee and, yes, even Julien (I’m leaving Larnach out at this point).  If just one or two of them (and ideally Lewis is one of those) can demonstrably become part of the next core, that would be a huge success.

2. Do we give our top position player prospects a real opportunity this season (and not just a cup of coffee)?  This list includes Keaschall (who 100% should), Jenkins, ERod, Gonzalez, and Culpepper. Maybe Roden too. Ideally, one or two at least prove that they belong in the every day starting lineup in 2027.

3. Who emerges from our young crop of pitchers as reliable options as either starters or relievers for ‘27 and beyond? This audition may be the most entertaining and interesting of all.  Again, ideally a couple of reliable options as SPs and RPs emerge.

4. What can we get for Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers at the deadline? We have to assume that these trades will be merited as the first half of the season draws to an end. The FO is wagering their prices will rise as the season unfolds and if the hope and prayer strategy doesn’t pan out.  Ideally by the time these trades happen - and they must if we are not contending - we will be able to identify the biggest holes/risks to the next core and look to address those.

If somehow T-Cubed, Falvey and Shelton put these four initiatives as their core objectives upon which the success of the season should ultimately be based and ultimately execute on them more or less, the Twins will 100% exit 2026 in a much improved position with a more exciting, talented and entertaining roster for the future. 

 

[jmlease1]

46 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but a little muddled.  Nick says the Twins were the worst team in baseball over the second half but then says .500 should be the reasonable goal for 26.  How?  How exactly are the Twins going to improve by 25 wins over their post-deadline pace by adding Josh Bell?  

And by having Pablo back in the rotation (and generally having a strong a deep rotation). A full season of Keaschall. Bounce back efforts from Wallner & Lewis. A presumption that there will be some reinforcements for the bullpen. Improvement/contributions from young hitters.

It's not that difficult to forecast a team that's significantly better than the disasterville we saw in the second half, particularly after the trade deadline. It's not crazy to think that while the Twins lost like crazy in the second half, they weren't actually the worst team in the baseball from an overall talent perspective. 

But it's betting on internal improvement, which has not be a team specialty lately.

[JD-TWINS]

44 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but a little muddled.  Nick says the Twins were the worst team in baseball over the second half but then says .500 should be the reasonable goal for 26.  How?  How exactly are the Twins going to improve by 25 wins over their post-deadline pace by adding Josh Bell?  

I guess the rationale is Martin & Keaschall build on ‘25 performances and play 130 games instead of 40-50.

Lopez is healthy and throws 185 innings. Ryan throws 175 innings. Ober throws 165 innings. SWR throws 150 innings………..they commit some upside young arms (3-4) to the PEN - outside guys that are already relievers - Adams & Klein don’t count in this mix……. Morris - Prielipp - Matthews or similar & Orze - Topa - Funderburk - Sands ……. with two affordable FA relievers, the PEN is reasonable.

Buxton stays healthy and produces near ‘25 results………same with Jeffers.

Lee lifts OPS+ to 90 or better. Lewis & Wallner get back to mildly above average guys…. not stars ……. Larnach quits hitting against LH pitching and his numbers reflect this change. Bell is able to meet expectations of a just above average guy.

If these guys elevate, as a group, some more than others, they can get to .500 or a bit better.

[Linus]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I guess the rationale is Martin & Keaschall build on ‘25 performances and play 130 games instead of 40-50.

Lopez is healthy and throws 185 innings. Ryan throws 175 innings. Ober throws 165 innings. SWR throws 150 innings………..they commit some upside young arms (3-4) to the PEN - outside guys that are already relievers - Adams & Klein don’t count in this mix……. Morris - Prielipp - Matthews or similar & Orze - Topa - Funderburk - Sands ……. with two affordable FA relievers, the PEN is reasonable.

Buxton stays healthy and produces near ‘25 results………same with Jeffers.

Lee lifts OPS+ to 90 or better. Lewis & Wallner get back to mildly above average guys…. not stars ……. Larnach quits hitting against LH pitching and his numbers reflect this change. Bell is able to meet expectations of a just above average guy.

If these guys elevate, as a group, some more than others, they can get to .500 or a bit better.

In other words if they flip heads five times in a row 😀

[rdehring]

What a great read, Nick, fantastic!

As I began reading your top 20 I was floored by the fact only 1 came from an International signing.  Considering they spend what, $5-$6M a year a flat out failure.  Yet, 5 of your top 10 came in via trades.  As much as many, including me, are often critical of the front office they are doing something right when trading.  Kind of wish they would do a better job of understanding the health of pitchers they trade for, but overall the results have been good.  The biggest question is how do they get more bang for their bucks from the International market?

Loved this piece, Nick.  Thanks.

 

[Riverbrian]

In my opinion... This is the year to trade Joe Ryan. If there ever was a year... this is the year. 

Thinking they can contend this year... they better be right because there are real consequences to being wrong beyond losing baseball games in 2026.  

Delaying the trade decision until the deadline to see where the teams stands is incredibly risky.

If he gets hurt or struggles. His current trade value craters. If he ends up needing TJ or something severe. His trade value go from huge to nil. We could get a Walker Jenkins type talent for Joe right now. We won't be able to get that kind of player if he gets hurt or struggles. He would have to maintain his health and performance just to come close to the same value that he has right now because value goes down when the clock ticks down. Only the scarcity of selling teams can restore the value lost... providing he stays healthy and similarly productive. 

I think we can mark this moment in time and easily determine during the course of 2026 if we wasted Joe Ryan's trade value for a shot at glory.

We better have the glory because it's a lot to waste. 

[JD-TWINS]

32 minutes ago, Linus said:

In other words if they flip heads five times in a row 😀

I could think like chicken little - yes. That’s a drag and essentially what 90% of the TD commenters already have covered.

2 years ago the Team could “trade anyone” but Brooks Lee, according to people here. Thinking he may be able to elevate his offense from OPS+ of 76 up to OPS+ of 91 isn’t a huge ask. Is it guaranteed, he’ll no.

In ‘22-‘24 Lopez threw 180 - 194 - 185 innings respectively……….injuries in ‘25…….. am assuming his “normalcy” - not Blue Sky. Ober has thrown 144 - 178 - 146 innings over last 3 seasons ………165 doesn’t seem lofty IMO. Expecting 175 innings from Ryan is what the Twins, or any other organization that would trade for him, should expect. I don’t see the rub?

The PEN is a crapshoot, but if there’s an effort to displace Sands, etc. from the back end of the PEN, with a couple OK free agents and some talented youth, it has a good chance of being at least middle if the pack. Not predicting Top 5.

Larnach producing in a platoon is historically proven. Wallner IS a flip of the coin but it’s tough to hit .202 in back to back years with his bat speed & prior success. He may hit a buck ninety the way he looked in ‘25? Lewis, who knows? Thinking he should be or has a real shot at just above average, this doesn’t seem to be a view that anyone that watches baseball wouldn’t concur with.

Jeffers/Buxton ……. do people, in general, think either will collapse in ‘26?

I’m not dreaming about Roden or Outman or Clemens or Julien to contribute at all!!! They are all a serious stretch to make the roster.

Or nothing might work out and they win 61 games and everyone boycotts Target Field ……., I could take that point of view and then commit hara-kiri.

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Good piece but a little muddled.  Nick says the Twins were the worst team in baseball over the second half but then says .500 should be the reasonable goal for 26.  How?  How exactly are the Twins going to improve by 25 wins over their post-deadline pace by adding Josh Bell?  

Yes, the Twins were 19-35 post deadline, a 57 win pace.  However, the bullpen blew 19 leads or ties in the 6th inning or later after the deadline.  17 recorded as losses as the Twins came back to win 2 of those 19 blown leads.  I kept a running tally. The bullpen is the major reason they were on such a horrible pace, not the only reason though.  Some of those games are going to happen, but if those 17 blown leads/recorded losses were cut in half, now we are much closer to .500 team.  For some reason the Twins decided to run out retread relievers (like Hatch, Kriske, Ramirez, etc...) instead of giving some of the younger guys MLB experience out of the pen.  Giving those younger guys experience facing MLB hitters could have given them a jump start to this year.

I say the above paragraph with a caveat as the Twins still haven't addressed that need yet.  I do believe they will end up signing 2 relievers, but traditionally they won't do that until late January/early February.  Hopefully, they also give Prielipp a real shot to make the team in a reliever role, as Falvey noted at the GM meetings.  He will be on a innings limit anyway.  I do also see them converting one of the 4-5 starters competing for the #5 spot to the bullpen.       

[Blyleven2011]

Contenders or pretenders  , that is and has been the question for quite sometime with the pohlads as owners  ...

Twice they have slapped us hard in the face in recent years , right sizing payroll for 2024 and deadline trades of bullpen arms in 2025  ...

I understand keeping Ryan and Buxton but really expected them to be traded because their value has never been higher  , Lopez too  ....

Stumble at the start  , the twins play in Florida in nice weather in spring training and come north to a colder climate and have so it seems gotten off to slow starts due to the shock of  colder elements ...

This is a poorly run organization , never addressing the proper issues for this team to succeed  , it's lost it's way with defense and proper offensive ...

Hopefully our new coaches will emphasize how important it is to the players ,we need a cleaner game of baseball  ...

So coaches do your magic and emphasize that we need to play better exciting baseball  , and please  keep falvey away from the dugout ...

[GNess]

Nice summation of the likely direction of the Twins in the short to medium term. I see Pohlad's comment about not being the time to invest to be deceptive. 

I can't imagine many teams list of Top 20 players don't include at least one player acquired via free agency. The Twins are not truly doing all they can can to build a championship level organization,

Some would say they signed Donaldson and Correa and those didn't produce the results given the investment. But a few attempts that don't work out shouldn't see you abandon an important tool - they have had plenty of trades that didn't work out and they continue to trade.

There is some hope that a real salary cap could change this dynamic, but that has eluded MLB so it is just speculation for now.

Unless and until the Twins participate in free agency they have likely created a franchise ceiling that is below true world series contender.

[D.C Twins]

Let's keep this simple:

The Twins HAD the core of Ryan, Buxton, and Lopez in 2024-5 and were awful anyway.

Transitioning from 2025 to 2026, we've added (checks notes)... nothing of significant value!

But wait, there is more! The Twins now have a gaping hole in the bullpen that will be filled by bargain bin pick ups and former AAA starters! There is hope there but.... hope is of course not a plan. 

I just do not see how this is a winning team short of 90% of the players having career years. You can hope for that but.... well... you know.... 

[Cris E]

Quote

The Twins are very much attempting to thread the needle of present and future. They're holding their veteran stars and passing up the opportunity to go all-in on a rebuild. To an extent I admire that, and agree with it. Ryan, Lopez and Buxton are three of the biggest success stories in modern franchise history, fully realized. You cannot take for granted that you're going to have a proven foundation this strong again anytime soon. 

Well they did have more development success than just those three stories. Jax, Duran and to a  lesser extent Varland were best case scenarios of rolling your own relievers. Just because they were traded doesn't mean they didn't happen. But it's also fair to say that just because they happened that the team can crank out three more next year. 

Things looked very different in 2023. If ownership learned anything from the missteps of the past couple years then this might not be that long a walk in the desert. Quite a lot depends on how the CBA goes, and this winter more teams are stepping back than investing. But Pohlads were spending and investing before 2024, and they recapitalized in order to straighten the financial mess that had developed, so it's not like we're waiting for John Fisher to see the light.  

One thing in favor of a better 2026 is the youth that was always going to be a part of the plans. A lot of guys are no the verge of coming to Mpls like Jenkins, ERod, and all the pitchers. Those guys paired with Lewis and Lee either figuring things out of getting out of the way should help a lot. You can say it hasn't happened yet, but the downside to youth is not having a guaranteed maturation schedule. Some of these guys are going to get better, some won't and others will get hurt. You just don't know until hindsight clues you in.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think the big questions in here are 1.) Can they figure out a way to build a good bullpen on the fly?  And 2.) Can they expect any improvement from their younger players?

First the bullpen.  I’m going to go on record and say that bullpens are almost always a crapshoot.  The last two years, on paper, the Twins should have had one of the very best bullpens in baseball (pre-deadline).  They were OK, but weren’t amazing.  On the other hand, some of the other lesser regarded bullpens pre-season wound up being pretty good.  I’m not saying that they shouldn’t try.  They absolutely should sign someone or several someones to bolster the unit.  It might work.  It might not.  Not very predictable.  

Second, the younger hitters.  Wallner was better two and three years ago, so it’s not a stretch to think he might be better than last year.  Lewis SEEMS to be finding his way a bit more.  I’m going to bank on his talent shining through.  It might not, but it’s not crazy.  Lee.  I’m not a fan, but he can’t likely be worse than he was last year at hitting.  All three point to improvement.  NOT stardom, but above average bats.  The young-young guys — ERod, Jenkins, Gonzalez, Keaschall, etc.  Keaschall isn’t going to be better this year on a rate basis than last year, however his counting stats might be better as he plays more games by staying healthy, thus making him more valuable.  The three potential rookies look very promising and are as likely as anyone’s rookies to make it.  I can feel reasonably OK about this group.  

Will they make .500?  Maybe, maybe not.  It’s hardly guaranteed but it is certainly not a ridiculous thought.  Plus, it gives me as a fan some hope that the Twins might be worth watching.  YMMV..

[Linus]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I could think like chicken little - yes. That’s a drag and essentially what 90% of the TD commenters already have covered.

2 years ago the Team could “trade anyone” but Brooks Lee, according to people here. Thinking he may be able to elevate his offense from OPS+ of 76 up to OPS+ of 91 isn’t a huge ask. Is it guaranteed, he’ll no.

In ‘22-‘24 Lopez threw 180 - 194 - 185 innings respectively……….injuries in ‘25…….. am assuming his “normalcy” - not Blue Sky. Ober has thrown 144 - 178 - 146 innings over last 3 seasons ………165 doesn’t seem lofty IMO. Expecting 175 innings from Ryan is what the Twins, or any other organization that would trade for him, should expect. I don’t see the rub?

The PEN is a crapshoot, but if there’s an effort to displace Sands, etc. from the back end of the PEN, with a couple OK free agents and some talented youth, it has a good chance of being at least middle if the pack. Not predicting Top 5.

Larnach producing in a platoon is historically proven. Wallner IS a flip of the coin but it’s tough to hit .202 in back to back years with his bat speed & prior success. He may hit a buck ninety the way he looked in ‘25? Lewis, who knows? Thinking he should be or has a real shot at just above average, this doesn’t seem to be a view that anyone that watches baseball wouldn’t concur with.

Jeffers/Buxton ……. do people, in general, think either will collapse in ‘26?

I’m not dreaming about Roden or Outman or Clemens or Julien to contribute at all!!! They are all a serious stretch to make the roster.

Or nothing might work out and they win 61 games and everyone boycotts Target Field ……., I could take that point of view and then commit hara-kiri.

The chicken little and hari Kari comments are red herrings. I’m merely pointing out that for the Twins to have success this year nearly all the question marks will have to break their way. Can it happen? Sure, there have been several worst to first seasons by Teams including the Twins. Is it likely? Nope. But that is my opinion and we all get to choose what we will expect. Flawed teams are far more likely to suffer from their flaws than end up twitch that magical season. 

[TheLeviathan]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Status quo is all I see with this ownership group. Same exact plan as always. Mulligan, Mulligan, Mulligan, Do Over, Mulligan.

The Twins have basically 4 players and 22 question marks. This is how the Colorado Rockies operate, except Rockies games are fun to attend. Thinking a .500 season will get fans interested is incomprehensible to me.

What I read is "cut the beer prices by 80%"

[farmerguychris]

I have a question regarding the 2027 season maybe someone can shed some light on for me.

I'm part of the group who feels probably more negative than most that there will be no 2027 season based on the totally out of whack salary differences between clubs (Juan Soto 61.9M and the Marlins team $70M in 2025).

With that said, can someone confirm that IF the entire season is cancelled due to the lock out - any players under contract thru 2027 simply becomes a free agent - and essentially plays their last game for their current team in 2026 - Is that correct?

I would think that IF the first half of this upcoming season goes poorly and we decide to cut bat on players like Joe Ryan - we would probably get less for him in return if the other club will only know they will be getting half a season and that no second year is guaranteed.  Surly they could always sign him to an extension, but I wonder if that will play much of an impact on the offers we'd get for players with officially 1.5 years of team control, but could end up being only half a year.

[Nashvilletwin]

16 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I have a question regarding the 2027 season maybe someone can shed some light on for me.

I'm part of the group who feels probably more negative than most that there will be no 2027 season based on the totally out of whack salary differences between clubs (Juan Soto 61.9M and the Marlins team $70M in 2025).

With that said, can someone confirm that IF the entire season is cancelled due to the lock out - any players under contract thru 2027 simply becomes a free agent - and essentially plays their last game for their current team in 2026 - Is that correct?

I would think that IF the first half of this upcoming season goes poorly and we decide to cut bat on players like Joe Ryan - we would probably get less for him in return if the other club will only know they will be getting half a season and that no second year is guaranteed.  Surly they could always sign him to an extension, but I wonder if that will play much of an impact on the offers we'd get for players with officially 1.5 years of team control, but could end up being only half a year.

I can’t confirm your question about becoming free agents, but it’s hard to imagine it being any other way.

Therefore, your hypothesis about declining values makes complete sense and it makes the holding on to Ryan, Lopez and Buxton that much riskier (and the risks - performance and injury for each - are already big).

The SP market seems to be thawing a bit. I’d be really surprised if we broke camp with all three. Again, they need to pull a Canucks’ Quinn Hughes deal for each of them at some point. To get nothing or very little for them would be a huge dereliction of duty if the Twins don’t (as expected ) compete.

They are playing with fire, but I’m staying patient for the time being.  

[bean5302]

31 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

I have a question regarding the 2027 season maybe someone can shed some light on for me.

I'm part of the group who feels probably more negative than most that there will be no 2027 season based on the totally out of whack salary differences between clubs (Juan Soto 61.9M and the Marlins team $70M in 2025).

With that said, can someone confirm that IF the entire season is cancelled due to the lock out - any players under contract thru 2027 simply becomes a free agent - and essentially plays their last game for their current team in 2026 - Is that correct?

I would think that IF the first half of this upcoming season goes poorly and we decide to cut bat on players like Joe Ryan - we would probably get less for him in return if the other club will only know they will be getting half a season and that no second year is guaranteed.  Surly they could always sign him to an extension, but I wonder if that will play much of an impact on the offers we'd get for players with officially 1.5 years of team control, but could end up being only half a year.

Contracts for the 2027 season would be void. Deferred money owed or earned from previous seasons (like signing bonuses, deferred salaries from 2026 or earlier, etc) would still be paid.

Your assertion about contract length is correct. Contracts end in seasons/calendar years, not service years.

Joe Ryan's value is going to utterly crater this year under all circumstances. Right now, he's got a surplus value of like 53MM according to BTV. But that's based o production of like $65MM of production value (like 4 WAR per year) with $13MM of salary to come.

Next year, even if he's awesome by his own standards, he'll be worth less than half of that because his annual salary will be higher, and his control will be halved.

[Rosterman]

Saying you should spend $40-50 million more (and not doing it) would be as bad as cutting salary that came out of Joe's mouth a couple of season's ago.

Seriously the marketing of this team right now is such a big question. TwinsFest is supposed to be the time for excitement, no matter the state of the team. But with ticket prices all over the place depending on the game, no season ticket holders to speak of, deflated television package, and the meltdowns for the past two seasons, the Twins could do no worse than to trade off Lopez, Ryan, and even Buxton, before the season begins and continue to restock the organization.

Still mad that 10% of the current payroll is being paid to Houston now and the next two seasons and we got nothing, player wise, in return. At least should've got one of their overpaid end of the roster guys to maybe see if could revitalize their career and become tradebait. I'm still confused. Eliminated payroll in the longterm, but that is quite a few ticket sells not benefitting the Twins in anyway.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

...Still mad that 10% of the current payroll is being paid to Houston now and the next two seasons and we got nothing, player wise, in return. At least should've got one of their overpaid end of the roster guys to maybe see if could revitalize their career and become tradebait. I'm still confused. Eliminated payroll in the longterm, but that is quite a few ticket sells not benefitting the Twins in anyway.

The Twins could have gotten something valuable back, but we'd be paying $20MM per year instead of $10MM.

[Linus]

22 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I can’t confirm your question about becoming free agents, but it’s hard to imagine it being any other way.

Therefore, your hypothesis about declining values makes complete sense and it makes the holding on to Ryan, Lopez and Buxton that much riskier (and the risks - performance and injury for each - are already big).

The SP market seems to be thawing a bit. I’d be really surprised if we broke camp with all three. Again, they need to pull a Canucks’ Quinn Hughes deal for each of them at some point. To get nothing or very little for them would be a huge dereliction of duty if the Twins don’t (as expected ) compete.

They are playing with fire, but I’m staying patient for the time being.  

I hope you are right and that the FO saying they want to build around them is lip service and he is dealt in the next month. The upside of keeping him is minimal and the upside of trading him is huge.