The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025: Part 4 (1-5)

I'd have no problem with Correa at 16.  I Larnach weren't at 14.

I enjoyed reading your top 20 and your top 5 are difficult to argue with other than tinkering with the order.  That said, Buxton not in the top 20 is difficult to understand.  

I said yesterday that it'd probably be best to trade Wallner because his value will never be higher. Well, I kind of feel that way about Lewis now as well.

How valuable is a 3 WAR player that you need to roster a full time backup for due to their porcelain body? 

Not to mention his incredibly poor media management last season that made himself look like a clubhouse cancer. 

Thanks Nick, for this interesting exercise. Unlike you, I would not rank the prospects as high as you have. If they haven't proved anything yet it's hard for me to rank them that high. I also see you left off Buxton. Of course, I'd love Buxton to play more but even so how easy would it be to find his caliber of play for the amount we pay him? If he was completely healthy when we signed him, we couldn't afford him. Same with Correa, his caliber of talent & intangibles are indispensable. Because of the absence at times of Buxton, Correa & Lewis shine doubt on their indispensability. The more Castro's (who was also left off this list) indispensability makes more sense, his flexibility & quality depth he provides are very valuable. How easy is it to replace him? We don't have him in the system. If you can find him in FA he'd be too expensive. If you find him on a different team, if the team is smart they won't trade him. Just because FO wants to free up money & Castro would be the easiest way to do it (because there should be a big demand for him) makes him less valuable? How would it look if Twins' MVP & All-Star who makes it in your indispensable list was traded? He should be extended.

Buxton belongs on the list instead of Julien. I would have Andrew Morris on instead of Raya. Festa should be just below Jax and Duran. Move Jeffers and Correa ahead of Zebby Matthews. The rest are close enough that I don't care.

1. Walker Jenkins, CF
2. Royce Lewis, 3B/2B
3. Bailey Ober, RHP
4. Joe Ryan, RHP
5. Pablo López, RHP
6. Brooks Lee, SS/2B/3B
7. Emmanuel Rodriguez, CF
8. Matt Wallner, RF
9. Griffin Jax, RHP
10. Jhoan Durán, RHP
11. David Festa, RHP
12. Ryan Jeffers, C
13. Carlos Correa, SS
14. Byron Buxton, CF
15. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
16. Zebby Matthews, RHP
17. Luke Keaschall, 2B/CF
18. Trevor Larnach, LF
19. José Miranda, 3B/1B
20. Andrew Morris, RHP

@Nick Nelson An explanation is probably needed as to why Buxton and Castro were omitted entirely from your list.  Maybe a follow up article on the who missed and why.

Personally for me: Correa is too low and the relievers are too high.

Thanks for the rundown.

I also appreciate these lists, and honestly don’t have enough information to argue your rankings Nick, It’s a great way for fans like me to know who/what to be watching for as we move into Spring Training. 
 

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

Buxton not in the top 20 is difficult to understand.  

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

Correa's production is quite valuable to the Twins but he doesn't have a lot of excess value once you subtract the value of what he gets paid. That's why other players end up higher than Correa. I'm pretty certain you couldn't get a team to give you a top 100 prospect in return for Correa in a trade.

These list are popular and interesting. One can construct such a list on a variety of criteria and there will always be some differences of thought and opinion. Thank you Nick for putting these together and for your synopsis of each player. 

There is bias in every judgment. Two players, separated by quite some distance on this list, are emblematic of this. Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien are different people and players with different styles and backgrounds. People react to these two quite differently as well. The struggles of one result in a call for removal, the struggles of the other demand a call for patience and hope. Each has roughly the same number of plate appearances and somewhat similar counting stats with an identical oWar ranking thus far. I'm always interested in reading these lists and the responses and the sentences above are not a defense or attack on either Julien or Lewis or much of a comparison, but merely a note to remind myself that everyone finds value where they choose to see it with each player based on mostly real reason but also personal beliefs. 

I keep hearing how Royce Lewis's defensive skills have declined and that he doesn't want to play 3rd or 2nd. So why not move him and the big bat over to first base and move injury-prone Correa to 3rd, a theoretically less-demanding position, where he'll have less ground to cover? Then move some combination of Julien, Miranda, Keaschall, and Lee into the SS/2B slots until someone better comes along? All among the Top 20.

I'd say that SWR is seriously underrated.

As a rookie, the guy stepped in and literally saved the rotation from disaster. Sure, he often went only 5 innings, but he kept the team in the game most every start. A controllable, cheap #4 SP who will only get better is worth their weight in Gold for an organization like the Twins. As excited as I was for last years team, this year does not inspire me at all. They still don't have a #5 SP, no LF right hand power hitter and now no 1B and a BP with no depth, no Lefty and injury concerns galore. Barring a miracle, These 4 areas not being addressed make this a 500 team at best.

18 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I keep hearing how Royce Lewis's defensive skills have declined and that he doesn't want to play 3rd or 2nd. So why not move him and the big bat over to first base and move injury-prone Correa to 3rd, a theoretically less-demanding position, where he'll have less ground to cover? Then move some combination of Julien, Miranda, Keaschall, and Lee into the SS/2B slots until someone better comes along? All among the Top 20.

Sir, the reason Correa cannot be moved is because he is currently the only player capable of playing shortstop in the major leagues. Shortstop is far less important than catcher but it is still the next most important defensive position in baseball, pitching being a category in itself.

4 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Thank you all so much for the great feedback and thoughts. I love writing this series mainly because it tends to elicit so much thoughtful and interesting discussion during a dead zone in the offseason.

Seems like the biggest quibble I'm seeing is the absence of Buxton from the list, and I hear ya. I'm second-guessing myself for not having him on here. Buxton ranked #1 on this list two years ago but dropped off completely following the disaster that was 2023. He did rebound in a major way this past season, finished relatively healthy, and perhaps that should've been weighed more heavily. Candidly, Buck is my favorite player and it's possible I went too far trying to overcorrect my own bias.

But to defend the choice, ultimately where I get stuck is thinking about the entire balance of his remaining contract vs 2025 specifically. It's not a bad contract but $15M/yr is meaningful to the Twins in their situation. He's 31, he's got a ton of wear-and-tear, and I don't think he's much longer for CF. What are we looking at from him in 2026-28? And how do we realistically frame his upside when you can only hope to get 100 games max from him? 

Thanks for writing this - something different in a slow off season.  Going forward I think you need to define the objective of the exercise better.  Fulfilling the vision of a winning team is pretty vague, at least to me.  It seems to me that it is an asset valuation which is basically a trade valuation which you state isn’t what you are doing.  Is about winning over a certain timeframe?  Reminds me of people debating if a certain pitcher is an ace when they don’t define what an ace is.

8 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

Royce is right there with him. 

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

These list are popular and interesting. One can construct such a list on a variety of criteria and there will always be some differences of thought and opinion. Thank you Nick for putting these together and for your synopsis of each player. 

There is bias in every judgment. Two players, separated by quite some distance on this list, are emblematic of this. Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien are different people and players with different styles and backgrounds. People react to these two quite differently as well. The struggles of one result in a call for removal, the struggles of the other demand a call for patience and hope. Each has roughly the same number of plate appearances and somewhat similar counting stats with an identical oWar ranking thus far. I'm always interested in reading these lists and the responses and the sentences above are not a defense or attack on either Julien or Lewis or much of a comparison, but merely a note to remind myself that everyone finds value where they choose to see it with each player based on mostly real reason but also personal beliefs. 

Oooh. Good comparison. I obviously understand why Royce is viewed higher. But man on man, I just can't get excited for a guy that got seriously hurt rounding second base. 

Love this exercise, Nick.  Thanks!

Will agree with those who believe Buxton must be on this list somewhere.  If he is healthy and plays, say 125 games, he is the one player capable of taking the Twins to the promised land.  And he is under contract for several years with a contract that doesn't break the bank.

It wasn't that long ago that I can recall most Twins fans praying for a top of the rotation starter.  They haven't had one since the days of Radke and Santana.  And now they have three.  FANTASTIC!

Go Twins.

52 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Part-time player. "Next year" is always when he's going to play regularly and reach his potential.

That's an emotional response.  His value to the organization is top 20 when he plays 100 games; which he did this past season.

That's a response based on the facts of how many games he's played and his overall reliability throughout his MLB career. If you can't count on him being in the line-up or in CF, then you can't count on him.

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Fun list as always.

I'm excited for Jenkins too, but I don't think a guy with 6 AA games is the top value in the system though. I don't think you get Lewis, Ober, Ryan or Lopez for Jenkins straight up. I think you have to add something to Jenkins.

Maybe you get Ryan.

This is an example of why these lists are fun - different people have different ideas. Going off what you stated  and not having actually thought about it before now, I would bet $1K that the Twins would not trade Walker Jenkins (1 for 1) for any of those noted in a hypothetical deal. Great example though of what makes the