Should Minnesota Twins Revisit Alleged Joe Ryan Trade Package With Boston Red Sox?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

As so often happens, in the final minutes before the 2025 MLB trade deadline, a significant amount of misinformation whirled through Twitter, particularly from one notable legacy media account. At 4:37 PM CT on July 31, FOX Sports: MLB's official Twitter account posted that Minnesota starting pitcher Joe Ryan had been traded to the Boston Red Sox, per insider Jon Morosi. The post was quickly deleted, however, confusing fans of both franchises and Ryan himself.

Obviously, no such trade was in place. Later, separate reports confirmed that a deal for Ryan was "not even close," citing that Boston approached Minnesota's front office too late in the process. Regardless, Boston did discuss Ryan with Twins decision-makers. That's reason enough to believe the two clubs could re-engage in talks this offseason, with Minnesota being more motivated to move the All-Star starting pitcher.

Before July 31, Ryan was one of the best starters in baseball, generating a 2.82 ERA, a 3.23 FIP, and a 137-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 121 1/3 innings pitched. However, he has significantly regressed over nine starts since, posting a 5.24 ERA, a 5.27 FIP, and a much less inspiring 48-to-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 44 2/3 innings pitched. Despite poor results, Ryan's stuff and movement profile have remained relatively steady post-deadline, signaling that this rough stretch of starts is likely the result of him throwing the most innings of his major-league career and battling through fatigue, rather than a meaningful, long-term regression in skill and performance.

That being the case, Ryan should garner considerable interest on the trade market this offseason. Even though Minnesota could reduce its payroll to the $100-110 million range this upcoming offseason, Ryan's expected to make between $6-7 million next season, a price range Twins ownership could easily stomach. Possessing two more seasons of cost-effective team control, Minnesota could hold onto the 29-year-old right-handed hurler. Yet, given the package Boston was allegedly willing to offer, it's worth re-opening the conversation about dealing him.

According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, the Red Sox proposed various packages in exchange for Ryan, including Boston's top pitching prospect, Payton Tolle (left-handed starting pitcher); second-ranked prospect Jhostynxon Garcia (right-handed hitting outfielder); and third-ranked prospect Franklin Arias (right-handed hitting shortstop). Now, acquiring Tolle, Garcia, and Arias for Ryan is massively unlikely, especially given how poorly Ryan has performed since the deadline. Yet, there is reason to believe Minnesota could net two of Boston's top prospects, considering the value encompassed by frontline starting pitchers.

In July, Derek Falvey prioritized acquiring young players who could immediately impact the major-league club, including Taj Bradley, Alan Roden, and Mick Abel. Tolle (13 1/3 innings pitched with Boston) and Garcia (nine plate appearances with Boston) fit a similar mold.

Arias, 19, arguably possesses the most talent of the three. However, given that he was promoted to Double-A less than three weeks ago and is still a teenager, it seems unlikely that he would be able to contribute at the major-league level until 2027. Tolle and Garcia are the more appealing targets.

If Minnesota were to send Ryan to Boston for Tolle and Garcia, the two prospects could become immediate fixtures for the parent club. Tolle (22 years old) would contend with Bradley, Abel, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Zebby Matthews and others for starting rotation spots to begin 2026. Given his struggles at the highest level this season (6.08 ERA and 5.99 FIP), Tolle could benefit from continuing to fine-tune his arsenal and pitch grips at Triple-A. However, he would instantly become one of Minnesota's most highly-touted pitching prospects, and maybe Ryan's successor at the top of the rotation.

Like Tolle, Garcia has struggled in minimal exposure to the bigs (82 wRC+ over nine plate appearances). Yet, the right-handed-hitting outfielder could immediately insert himself into the club's outfield mix, becoming a high-upside option in a position group saturated with left-handed bats. The power-hitting 22-year-old could slot in alongside Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Austin Martin early next season, with a potential long-term outlook of being a central piece in Minnesota's next formidable outfield alongside Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez. (Of course, it's also possible one or more of those incumbents is in another organization by the spring.)

Parting ways with Ryan would understandably tighten the knot that has resided in Twins Territory's collective stomach since ownership announced significant payroll cuts following the 2023 postseason. Still, a return package of Tolle and Garcia would ease the sting ever so slightly. The Twins are entering a new era, and even though ownership's purse strings might continue to tighten, that doesn't mean the team can't return to contender status in the near future. Acquiring Tolle and Garcia could accelerate that timeline, even if it comes at the cost of parting ways with a fan favorite.

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[nicksaviking]

Why not? The other trades have worked out so well for the Twins.....................

[Mike Sixel]

I still like the Mets better as an option.......

[Whitey333]

That's all there is hype and hope.  These can't miss prospects ts almost always miss in Twins land.  I e been duped too often by this Falvey/Baldelli regime.  They both need to go.  In any case unless something majorly good for the Twins in the off seasonlook for even .ore empty seats at Target field in 2026.  If they let Baldelli go but keep Falvey you are going to get a clone of Baldelli.  Get rid of them both!!

 

 

 

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

15 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I still like the Mets better as an option.......

And Cubs, and Dodgers, and Mariners.

[DJL44]

His value will go down, since the acquiring team won't get the 2025 half-season.

However

His value will go up, since there will be more suitors than just 2025 contenders.

 

[bean5302]

No idea what problem trading Joe Ryan for prospects solves right now. He's cheap. He's got more than 1 year of control. 

If the Twins are looking to compete in the next 1-2 years, this move hurts the team while not clearing salary to bring in a free agent to help offset the production loss.

If the Twins are initiating a full ground up rebuild expected to take 2-3 years, it makes sense, but Buxton and Lopez would probably be moved before Ryan as their salaries just aren't necessary.

[NYCTK]

39 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I still like the Mets better as an option.......

I think the Mets would offer something like Sproat plus 2 of Vientos/Mauricio/Reimer/Clifford/Acuna for Lopez/Ryan. 

Should the Twins talk with the Red Sox? Of course, but now there are a lot more teams that will be in the bidding for a good #2 starter.

Tolle plus something is a really good offer. I don't know that they're going to beat it in the offseason, so I can understand why this deal almost happened. 

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

His value will go down, since the acquiring team won't get the 2025 half-season.

However

His value will go up, since there will be more suitors than just 2025 contenders.

 

But, at the same time, players like Sonny Gray or Freddy Peralta/Brandon Woodruff might also be put on the trade block so who knows what the trade market even looks like. 

[1985Fan]

Trading Ryan doesn’t fit the cost cutting mode they’re in right now. I assume they would trade Lopez and save his salary before trading Ryan. Return for Lopez should be equivalent to Ryan with his relatively cheap $21M salary. The way Falvey is clearing out the roster, he may trade both this offseason. I think that would be a big mistake. It would be great to keep Ryan to lead the rotation next year, assuming the recent poor outings are due to fatigue and/or illness. One thing I hope for is if they trade either one, trade to a NL team so they don’t have to face them in the playoffs (if they ever get there again). 

[Nshore]

Good starters are an incredibly difficult commodity to come by, and pitching is the name of the game.  IMO it would make no sense to trade Ryan for any number of suspects.    

[dogsday]

Absolutely you trade both Ryan and Lopez this offseason. The Twins as currently constructed/operated have no obvious path to being competitive any time soon. Lopez will be making north of 20% of payroll next year. There’s no reason to do that on a non-competitive team. Re: Ryan, the Twins would be selling high-ish since he will get expensive before there is a competitive team around him (assuming he stays healthy and continues to pitch well.) Likewise you ask Buxton if he wants to revisit his no-trade clause not because you want him to leave but as a professional courtesy. He would be an even more incredible player surrounded by better hitters. Other players like Larnach, Jeffers and Wallner should also be made available if anyone offers a return you like. Just be the organization you are and stop hoping you'll get lucky with half-measures. You might. But the odds are you won't.

[farmerguychris]

Only if you don't want to win.

[DJL44]

55 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

Trading Ryan doesn’t fit the cost cutting mode they’re in right now. I assume they would trade Lopez and save his salary before trading Ryan. Return for Lopez should be equivalent to Ryan with his relatively cheap $21M salary. The way Falvey is clearing out the roster, he may trade both this offseason. I think that would be a big mistake. It would be great to keep Ryan to lead the rotation next year, assuming the recent poor outings are due to fatigue and/or illness. One thing I hope for is if they trade either one, trade to a NL team so they don’t have to face them in the playoffs (if they ever get there again). 

I think they will need to show Lopez is healthy before they can trade him for fair value. Joe Ryan is a "sell high" candidate. Lopez and Ober are not.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

And Cubs, and Dodgers, and Mariners.

Giants too

[DocBauer]

NO!

The hardest thing to find in MLB is quality SP. As Twins fans, we can point to YEARS where the Twins had someone like Radke and WHOEVER behind him. Even in some good years earlier in this century they seldom went 3 deep.

Currently they are 3 deep with everyone healthy, and a deep pool of talent to flesh out the last 2 spots and have additional options. If you want, I'll even say POTENTIAL depth. But it all starts by actually HAVING arms with talent vs fringe guys. 

There is enough talent on hand, and about to appear, hopefully with at least 1 solid FA BAT to augment the lineup/team to have a decent lineup. They are moving towards better athletes, more speed, and hopefully/probably even better defense.

Again, trying to re-build the pen to at least a solid, competent level is a different story.

But unless you want to tear the whole damn thing down and start from scratch...which doesn't always work BTW...you KEEP Ryan AND Lopez and keep building around them with players on hand, prospects about to debut, and hopefully a couple smart FA additions within whatever proposed budget is put in place.

[Doctor Gast]

I absolutely hate to see the Twins trade away Ryan. I would absolutely not revisit anything resembling that trade offer with BOS. The top priority during the trade deadline in trading away our valuable players should have been gaining impact young MLB-ready players to plug into our roster at our greatest needs of at catcher & SP. That didn't happen, which IMO was a great failure.

If Ryan asks to be traded, (I would not blame him & I would not trust Falvey to pull off a desirable trade). So I'm pulled in both directions. Even if he wants to be traded, I would not trade him if Falvey is still in charge, but if we have someone different who knows what he's doing. Then yeah, I would

 

[twinstalker]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

His value will go down, since the acquiring team won't get the 2025 half-season.

However

His value will go up, since there will be more suitors than just 2025 contenders.

 

It's a weird phenomenon.  Offers in the following offseason ultimately can be better than at the trade deadline because the team offering up players can now include one or more guys they thought they needed to help them win.

As for Boston, The Password is a no probably (K rate), Arias is interesting, Tolle is also interesting, though he's somewhat prone to the long ball.  However, I heard it was just Garcia and Tolle and a lesser prospect.  I highly doubt an offer of all three can be referred to as not "close," so I doubt Arias was in there.

Somewhere this season I read a negative about Arias but cannot remember what it was (it was about his hitting).  It would be advisable to check with other clubs.

[DuluthRoots]

"Alleged"?  So it was a crime?

[jmlease1]

I hate this idea. I hate everything about trading Joe Ryan, who is the kind of player you should be extending, not selling off. There should be plenty of payroll room for Ryan, and trading him to Boston or anywhere is a white flag of surrender and proof positive the Pohlads not only don't care about contending, but they also don't care if the team stinks or if anyone shows up to watch next season at all.

Which might very well be the point. The fire sale might continue, pushing the payroll down to more like $75M as ownership utterly throws away another season in anticipation of a lockout in 2027.

Yuck.

It's a horrible result in so many ways for Twins fans. So it's probably what's going to happen. If it does, I just hope it's much more like the trade that brought Ryan here in the first place than say the one when we sent out Johan Santana.

[William K Johnson]

NO NO NO

[shimrod]

43 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

But unless you want to tear the whole damn thing down and start from scratch..

Current ownership is tearing it all down and pocketing the cash. 

Next ownership starts from scratch. Ideally current FO turns over a stocked farm system, to include the proceeds from trading Ryan and Lopez and possibly Buxton.

We need to focus our hopes for contention on the post-lockout Twins. Until then I'll enjoy the clown show. 

[tony&rodney]

Payton Tolle and Franklin Arias are good prospects. Password Garcia is a definite no. The Twins should not be considering any additions to their team that cannot field and run at an average to plus level. Now, I am interested in a Tolle, Arias, and Rafaela for Ryan deal.

Maybe Boston is interested in Ryan Jeffers for Franklin Arias, which will be seen as an overpay by Boston.

Detroit needs starting pitching, has a young dynamic team full of position players, and also has a number of excellent prospects in their minor league system.

We all like Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, but it would be very odd to destroy the bullpen in late July and do nothing in the offseason. The Twins need talent. They are facing a tough year next season, but rolling back the current roster would be a disaster for several seasons .... think 100+ losses for a stretch.

One thing that should happen this winter is conversations between the Twins and multiple teams. The Twins put huge stock in Mick Abel and Eduardo Tait. We do not know what other offers, if any,  were discussed with different clubs but there will be demand for experienced pitching. Someone mentioned Peralta and Gray. The former is on an inexpensive bargain deal, which means he isn't going anywhere. Gray, the latter, isn't going anywhere either because he is due $35M next year and he has a full no trade provision in his contract. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober to a lesser extent will all have value in the trade market this winter.

[old nurse]

Why would Boston trade a starting pitcher like Tolle unless they don’t think he will make it as a starter. That is the only reason a team should be willing to trade a cost controlled arm unless the are getting a prearb pitcher back.  For 2 years of Ryan they aren’t giving  up a potential front line starter.  

[Jacksson]

45 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Giants too

If you deal with the Giants, the Giants would have to OVERPAY Big Time to make up for the shellacking the Twins got in the 2019 trade for Sam Dyson and the 2021 trade for Shaun Anderson.  Stay away from the Orioles also = remember the Jorge Lopez trade?

[nicksaviking]

I actually wouldn't be surprised if the Twins extended Ryan. Though I due to his age, I probably wouldn't.

The A's got their prize with the approval of a move to Las Vegas so MLB finally told them they had to stop manipulating the revenue sharing formula and made them increase their payroll to 100M. Now that the Pohlad's went through the charade of their fake sale and got the cashflow they wanted, I'll bet the 100M will be the bench mark required for approval of these new hedge fund investors. Otherwise, why would the other billionaire owners willingly give the Pohlad's free money to pay off their non-baseball debts when they could instead NOT approve the investors and force the Pohlad's to actually sell to someone who WON'T require such revenue sharing?

I think the Twins current payroll next year is something like 50M? Assuming no prideful free agents would even consider this dumpster fire, I'd guess the Twins would have to consider extensions for both Ryan and Jeffers to even sniff the 100M mark.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, Jacksson said:

If you deal with the Giants, the Giants would have to OVERPAY Big Time to make up for the shellacking the Twins got in the 2019 trade for Sam Dyson and the 2021 trade for Shaun Anderson.  Stay away from the Orioles also = remember the Jorge Lopez trade?

Buster Posey took over in 2022, after both of those trades. Besides, the Twins weren't forced to make either trade.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Currently they are 3 deep with everyone healthy, and a deep pool of talent to flesh out the last 2 spots and have additional options.

Who is the third? SWR?

36 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Joe Ryan, who is the kind of player you should be extending, not selling off.

This team cannot afford to pay big money to pitchers in their mid-30s. They already have his ages 30 and 31 seasons. They don't want to spend $25-30M a season for ages 32, 33, 34.

[bunsen82]

Yes quality starting pitching is the hardest thing to find and thus acquire.  Several posts above had said we should not trade Joe Ryan because of that.  The issue is we have 2 years of Joe Ryan.  

The trades we made at the trade deadline were not for 2025.  They were for 2026 and moving forward.  Having stomach reflex because of a few bad outings while trying to teach new pitches,  pitch sequence ect doesn't seem very useful to me.  The 2 main players who should make an impact on the 2026 team are Bradley and Abel.   Bradley appears to be close but continues to have really bad inning in several of his outings. Bradley still appears to be a solid piece to our 2026 rotation.  Abel - is a question mark.  Elite performance at AAA now - with poor outings at the MLB level.  However he is a player known to improve over the offseason and perform better at the higher level of competition he previously struggled at.  

Outman is a flyer and not a big piece moving forward.  Roden has potential but is most likely a player that will flame out.  

Tait, Rojas, Gallagher, Mendez, Jimenez, Gallagher, Horn, and Villoria.  Both Gallagher and Horn have had flashes.  Mendez looks like he has a legit MLB bat.  Jimenez could be a true diamond in the rough.  A high OBP and a sudden surge in power.  He made a massive leap from the FCL to A ball and actually performed better.  Tait has a very good swing with legit power.  Almost all of the prospects are a work in progress.  Some will inevitable flame out, but overall I still like the return. 

We can moan about losses - there have been ample articles going after that.  However I still stand by the real reason for the trade deadline deals, as much from the prospects received was to get better draft position for the 2026 draft .  We are currently in a dead heat with the pirates for the 2nd best odds which would have 22.27% chance of the #1 pick and a 60% chance of a top 3 pick in what currently is viewed as a strong draft class .  The Pirates finish out with the Reds and the Braves while we have the Rangers and the Phillies.  If both play out the season strong I would say by pure odds the Pirates will likely win an extra game or two than the Twins based on their competition.  So is losing 5-10-15 more games in 2025 due to running with a depleted bullpen and starting several players who are AAAA players at best going to matter much in 2026 or moving forward.  The only real implication is trying to rebuild a bullpen.  I think the real goal is to have a good bullpen in 2027.  I do think we will have a much better lineup than what we have been putting out for the last 2 months of the season. 

The bigger issue I see is will the team turn on the switch and suddenly be competitive and win games, when it seems the coach and front office has cut off their ability to win games at the end of the season.  That one is difficult.  Team chemistry and individual confidence is not something you can just turn off and on and Joe Ryan is key example.  I think this deadline has really effected him.  

So with that being said I do think trading Ryan is likely in our best interest moving forward due to 1 I don't think Joe does well being on a team that is not competing and has low morale,  2 we likely won't be competing in the next 2 years for a World Series.  So with more teams competing I do think we will get a pretty good deal.  Most likely Joe's value will be twice that of Duran's which is interesting.   They have seemed to prefer getting elite players and taking their chances which I do agree with, but finding a partner that has the elite players and is willing to trade them will be difficult.  

Overall I am still not thrilled we did what we did even if I can rationalize it.  Most likely it will help us win more games and help the organization in the future, but it has been pretty painful and demoralizing as a fanbase and organization. We will see if the front office and team can truly flip the switch (and whether they have been given the financial resources) to truly compete in 2026.   I will still be a fan of my favorite team,  but I am starting to think I may start finding a 2nd team to root for as well as we do have a fork in the road,  where things could go very well for the organization in the next decade, or the team becomes perpetual losers due to financial ramifications and prospects not panning out.  

As they say there is always next year . . . .

[1985Fan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I think they will need to show Lopez is healthy before they can trade him for fair value. Joe Ryan is a "sell high" candidate. Lopez and Ober are not.

The way Ryan has pitched in his last few outings, I think that raises some doubts about his value. Trade deadline would have been sell high, I don’t think it as high now. Lopez has a longer track record and there are the medical records and exams teams can look at for Lopez. I think his salary will dictate his trade, regardless of the return. Value to Twins is large reduction in payroll. 

[mikelink45]

Its done - move on