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Posted
Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images (Alan Roden), © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images (Mick Abel), © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images (Taj Bradley)

Let’s take a trip back to the beginning of the Derek Falvey regime. The Minnesota Twins were coming off a second-place finish in the division, but essentially, there wasn’t a strong feeling that the roster as constructed could keep up with the teams pushing for the pennant. Under Falvey’s leadership, there has been an influx of much higher-end talent than has been seen on the Twins in some time. The prospects that line the current Twins prospect list are much different than those lists at the beginning of the Falvey regime.  

Falvey’s imprint and direction on the organizational depth are evident today, but it took time to reach our current state. As fans, we have begun seeing the first glimpses of pitching success stories in the last couple of seasons. Hitting has lagged, but there were still successes, such as identifying Willi Castro on that side of the ball. 2023 was the peak of major league success under Falvey with the playoff series win over the Toronto Blue Jays. Twins Territory showed just how much they could make Target Field rock. As the season closed in a loss to the Astros, we now know so did the door to contention as the Pohlad’s followed with a slamming shut of the checkbook. 

2025 still seemed to be a year with a chance at contention. The organization has some of the most intriguing young talent it has had in some time. The major league pitching looks as good as many fans can remember. Even as the team struggled, there still seemed to be a path to contention as early as 2026 if the front office could make the right moves at the trade deadline. What none of us expected was that they would make all the moves. 

Instead of a retooling or reshuffling of key pieces, the Twins tore the entire bullpen down. Most believed there was a strong possibility that some bullpen pieces would move at the deadline, as it is one of the most valuable moves a selling team can make. It was more than some in the end. All the top bullpen arms were traded, and it was a shock, which leaves the roster, outside of the starting rotation, full of many unproven pieces. In short, the Twins traded the ability to sell to fans a contender in the making for hope in prospects, and in some cases, prospects whose flame has grown dim. 

For most of 2025, there has been confidence in the pitching staff, whether starting or in relief. It was the clear base the Twins were built on. The biggest problem came with the lineup and its inability to score runs. When thinking long term, the development of or addition of a few quality bats would turn this roster around. After the trade deadline, it is only the starting rotation that looks ready to go for contention. 

Professional sports teams most often find themselves in one of two places. With the need to rebuild both a lineup and a bullpen, the Twins bring us back to an all too familiar place. That place is where fans are once again being sold on the aforementioned hope of prospects. The hope of development. A hope that all too often is not fully realized. The Twins roster, especially in the bullpen, went from proven commodity (even as fickle as a bullpen arm can be) to needing to learn the names of who is in the room. 

There is at least some ready or near-ready MLB talent to try and fill in the empty spots left by trades. The concern is that they are all still unproven talents. Some will hit, some will completely flame out, and some will end up somewhere in the middle. As fans, we will be left to hope in a lot of unproven and unknowns. 

There certainly is a path to this hope being fulfilled. Even as early as 2026. Much of that has to do with the teams around the Twins in the AL Central. The Tigers bought some pieces, but there are significant questions about how well they bought. The Royals and Indians mostly sold. We all know where the White Sox currently stand. Cleveland has proven time and again that a solid rotation and enough bats can play in this division. 

So, the Twins could work the same magic this front office has many times on a smaller scale and replenish bullpen arms quickly. Some hitting prospects could graduate to the majors and hit the ground running in stride. It could all magically click with a much younger group of players. That just rarely fully clicks in the way we dream. Just look at the Twins' 2025 lineup, and there are plenty of examples of how that can fail as a plan. 

The Twins could also take a page out of the A.J. Preller playbook, do what they seemed not to want to commit to this offseason, and trade away some of their prospects for proven major league talent. A willingness to "buy" in some trades this offseason seems a more likely path back to contention than the development route. There are far too many outfielders who can be given a role in the depth of the organization. Right now, there are starting pitchers to trade from as well. A trade from those two positions within the organization could and should go to address what has ailed this team all season. Bats that will help the team score runs. 

There is a path to success for 2026, but it is trending as unlikely. It brings us back to the place of hope in unproven prospects. It is a place we have been before, and while it can produce a winner, there are a lot of variables at play. At the start of August, the Twins seem much further away than they were before the deadline. As mentioned above, while a lot of moves were made, the offense simply was not addressed. The offense has been the problem all season long.  

Is this hope we can buy into? Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, James Outman and Alan Roden could and will need to bolster this roster in ways others couldn’t. Hope is a powerful thing. Hope realized isn’t a guarantee, and the Twins just dealt proven commodities (or the closest thing we may have to a guarantee in baseball) for Hope. I for one, would like a few more of those proven commodities around, but instead I guess one must hope. 

Are you ready to hope again? Do you see hope in the moves the Twins made this deadline? 


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Posted

I'm in the minority, but I like the changes and trades. Lee at SS. Keaschall at 2B.

The bullpen is always a work in progress. Even with quasi-studs.

I would have liked to keep Varland, but trades require trading people that other teams want.

Overall, too much negativity. You don't give up on the Twins. They are what they are even with a $36 million SS in the middle.

We aren't a team that should have a $36 million player. Making the playoffs is our World Series. I'm good with that. Like winning the Division is the Vikings Super Bowl.

The Twins will get a new owner. I don't expect a $200 million payroll. Baseball means summer. No baseball means fall/winter north of the wall.

Posted
1 hour ago, Nate Palmer said:
 

The Twins could also take a page out of the A.J. Preller playbook, do what they seemed not to want to commit to this offseason, and trade away some of their prospects for proven major league talent. A willingness to "buy" in some trades this offseason seems a more likely path back to contention than the development route. There are far too many outfielders who can be given a role in the depth of the organization. Right now, there are starting pitchers to trade from as well. A trade from those two positions within the organization could and should go to address what has ailed this team all season. Bats that will help the team score runs. 

You are making an assumption on the most likely path.  I read similar assumptions so many times that it made me curious if this assumption had merit.   I heard this over and over again so I really wanted to validate it but I could not find any articles that did anything to actually validate this position.  So, I collected the acquisition method for every 1.5+ win player on literally every 90+ win since the turn of the century for teams in the bottom half of revenue.  Trading for prospects has produced 4-5X the WAR on these teams.  I can tell you with absolute certainty that your assumption is wrong historically.  If you have a theory on why this would change going forward, I would love to hear it.  

Posted

Falvey operates mainly on hope & luck. He's had some luck in having players fall in his lap, but afraid other FO have learned their lesson on that they don't have to give MN what they need because if they wait a little longer & spin some stats, he'll settle for less. Some players, like Castro, they had no plans of keeping them, but in Castro's case, they had no choice but to select him because of the injuries. He didn't want to sign Buxton, but the fans spoke & the Pohlads heard.

Because of these players that weren't planned but fell into his lap, we had hope. Now, because of this sell-off, & what could be a complete sell-off. I'm afraid he ran out of luck & relying on his ability, there's no hope to be had.

Posted

If you would have kept Jax, Varland and Stewart……the 3 worst trades (3 of the worst I can remember in a long time). 
you could sell me on shaking up the core and putting pieces together for 26. 
 

Way too many LH corner outfielders who all seem mediocre upside.  A lot of AAA or AAAA starting pitchers who are 1 time through the lineup types and don’t seem to have a dominant reliever profile.  
 

I think we could be mediocre (.500) season in 27 and possibly get back to competitive by 28.  That’s with prospects developing and contributing and looking through Rosie colored glasses.

Posted

It was a shame we wasted Buxton's best season. I have hope Byron will rattle off 3 more years like this one. If he does we'll be competitive. The chances we'll have a well-above avg starting 5 next year are quite high and I have a lot of hope there. If our kids develop, which is always a BIG IF, we stand a decent chance to compete, and IF we're right there after next years all-star game we'll have a deep minor league system to trade from to bolster the squad. Best hope we could receive would be a new owner this winter.

Posted
58 minutes ago, bloomwcjkl said:

I'm in the minority, but I like the changes and trades. Lee at SS. Keaschall at 2B.

The bullpen is always a work in progress. Even with quasi-studs.

I would have liked to keep Varland, but trades require trading people that other teams want.

Overall, too much negativity. You don't give up on the Twins. They are what they are even with a $36 million SS in the middle.

We aren't a team that should have a $36 million player. Making the playoffs is our World Series. I'm good with that. Like winning the Division is the Vikings Super Bowl.

The Twins will get a new owner. I don't expect a $200 million payroll. Baseball means summer. No baseball means fall/winter north of the wall.

You're forgetting hockey.

Posted
1 minute ago, old nurse said:

Well, there are the Rockies

Agreed... Rough year in Colorado. Nobody walking out of a dispensary is feeling much hope in the mile high city. 

However... I'd love to be the GM of a team with Freeman, Tover, Goodman, Beck, Moniak and Bernibel hitting 1 through 6 in the order. 

However... I'd hate to be the GM of a team with Freeland, Sanzatela and Marquez 1 through 3 in the starting rotation. 

Posted
1 hour ago, High heat said:

If you would have kept Jax, Varland and Stewart……the 3 worst trades (3 of the worst I can remember in a long time). 
you could sell me on shaking up the core and putting pieces together for 26. 
 

Way too many LH corner outfielders who all seem mediocre upside.  A lot of AAA or AAAA starting pitchers who are 1 time through the lineup types and don’t seem to have a dominant reliever profile.  
 

I think we could be mediocre (.500) season in 27 and possibly get back to competitive by 28.  That’s with prospects developing and contributing and looking through Rosie colored glasses.

I can agree with you on the Stewart trade, just doesn't fit. The Varland trade looks like a good trade & the Jax trade could be a very good trade. A 24 yr old SP whose held his own in MLB since he was 22 for 30 yr old reliever who first found success as a 27 yr old after not cutting as a starter sounds like a deal I'd take every day.

Posted
1 hour ago, High heat said:

If you would have kept Jax, Varland and Stewart……the 3 worst trades (3 of the worst I can remember in a long time). 
you could sell me on shaking up the core and putting pieces together for 26. 
 

Way too many LH corner outfielders who all seem mediocre upside.  A lot of AAA or AAAA starting pitchers who are 1 time through the lineup types and don’t seem to have a dominant reliever profile.  
 

I think we could be mediocre (.500) season in 27 and possibly get back to competitive by 28.  That’s with prospects developing and contributing and looking through Rosie colored glasses.

‘26 could be fun to watch some of the young guys - both position players and pitchers.

’27 there won’t be much baseball played this year.

’28 is when things should get really fun again.

I just wish they’d go forward with someone other than Rocco.

Posted
2 hours ago, bloomwcjkl said:

I'm in the minority, but I like the changes and trades. Lee at SS. Keaschall at 2B.

The bullpen is always a work in progress. Even with quasi-studs.

I would have liked to keep Varland, but trades require trading people that other teams want.

Overall, too much negativity. You don't give up on the Twins. They are what they are even with a $36 million SS in the middle.

We aren't a team that should have a $36 million player. Making the playoffs is our World Series. I'm good with that. Like winning the Division is the Vikings Super Bowl.

The Twins will get a new owner. I don't expect a $200 million payroll. Baseball means summer. No baseball means fall/winter north of the wall.

Rebuilding has to happen in certain cases.  I understand why the Twins did it, aside from the 40 million dollar loss they were taking this year due to messed up TV and broadcasting issues ongoing from last year, which is on them partly.  I think a lot of the long timers here at TD are just bitter about it and are having a real hard time coping with that.  It's a game, teams retool and rebuild.  I'd rather they take the chance and reboot / rebuild once in a while instead of languishing in mediocrity (which still could happen if it's not handled well).  The previous lineup was just not constructed well for consistent winning.  It needed to happen.  At least they were bold about it and dealt what they dealt.  I took think they should have hung onto the Varland but oh well he's replaceable.  Let the chips fall where they need to fall, time  to move forward.

Posted

There is no hope for '26, no. They just unloaded a bullpen that takes 2-3 years to build. They have no truly elite players at any position. The new owner would have to bring in a free agent class the likes of which this organization has never seen.

There will be no contention in 2026, so there's no reason to insert the usual qualifiers. The goal, from my perspective, is to develop top-tier talent over the next two years, paving the way for highly competitive baseball starting in 2028.

Posted
1 hour ago, laloesch said:

The previous lineup was just not constructed well for consistent winning. 

That's is because there never was a consistant lineup. Thank injuries and Rocco for that. It would take a lot of research but I'd be willing to bet that the exact same lineup was never used for more than 3 or 4 days in a row all the while Rocco has been Manager. The players can't be consistant hitters when they don't get consistant playing time.

Posted

I am 80, I have been a Twins fan since ushering in year one.  They have now been here 64 years.  How many of those years were hope years?  How many times were we saying, wait till next year or until the next wave of prospects comes up.  Hope is good, better than the Rockies and Pirates, but come on, just two years our hope was about now - not the future. 

Posted

I wonder if at some point ML teams will pretty much eliminate the concept of "starting pitcher".  The lines are already being blurred with "bullpen games".  Most of these guys are only capable of going 4 or 5 innings effectively at a time anymore anyway.  Expand the rosters slightly for more pitching, and have them only go 3 innings max per outing.  Maybe guys like Ober and Festa don't get hurt so much, and if you lose a guy like Lopez, you don't lose HOPE.

 

Posted
6 hours ago, bloomwcjkl said:

I'm in the minority, but I like the changes and trades. Lee at SS. Keaschall at 2B.

The bullpen is always a work in progress. Even with quasi-studs.

I would have liked to keep Varland, but trades require trading people that other teams want.

Overall, too much negativity. You don't give up on the Twins. They are what they are even with a $36 million SS in the middle.

We aren't a team that should have a $36 million player. Making the playoffs is our World Series. I'm good with that. Like winning the Division is the Vikings Super Bowl.

The Twins will get a new owner. I don't expect a $200 million payroll. Baseball means summer. No baseball means fall/winter north of the wall.

I like to wake up every morning and strive to be mediocre....No, thank you! Making the playoffs may be your goal, but I wanna win it all. Sorry. Just different expectations. No participation trophies, please. 

Posted

Some good prospects oh so very close to taking over jobs and debuting besides, this team needed a shakeup. We can call it re-tooling as well. I was 100% on board with moving the impending FA, which they did except for Vazquez, even though I really liked Bader, Castro, and Coulombe. 

I had accepted 1 of Jax or Duran going. I sure didn't expect BOTH to be dealt. And I personally don't think Bradley alone for Jax was a value move. (Not at this time anyway). But EVEN STILL, knowing the deals came a couple hours apart, I would never have made the Varland deal. And I'll repeat that I think betting on Stewart's arm NOT falling off for the next year or two was smarter than moving him for Outman. He and Varland give you at least a couple arms to begin the 2026 pen re-build with some strength. 

I'm not going to rehash every deal and every player and every "fit" directly. As @Riverbrianstakes, every team sells HOPE every season to some degree. It's a lot better than having NO hope. But while we have roughly 5 months to watch and wait, see what happens, and HOPE, I think it's OK to pause 1 week after the firesale and take a step back and just see what HOPE means for the Twins going forward.

#1] At the risk of being obvious, ACTUAL NEW OWNERS offers the most. Bonnes has roughly calculated that a Twins payroll sits somewhere in the $90M range as of now. IDK if that includes a couple arbitration bumps and minimum salaries for a full 26 man team or not, but it's a place to at least start.

Despite owing Houston $10M for each of the next 3 years, moving Correa DID free up $20M that COULD allow for additions and/or extensions. Even getting the Twins back to the 2025 level offers some hope if the new owners would like to nudge their new investment forward. They don't have to take the payroll to $150M to still have room to make additions.

#2] Unless the Pohlads are still in charge...see point #1 again...or the new owners are just as cheap and disinterested...doubt it...you'd like to think WHOEVER makes up the FO, they would keep the rotation in tact for the time being. Lopez's numbers are booked, and Ryan and Ober aren't going to be overly expensive yet. 

Looking ONLY at the ML level, AAA, and AA arms that haven't JUST been recently promoted, there is the following collection of SP arms: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Sims, Festa, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Lewis, Raya, MacLeod, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Prielipp, and MAYBE we can include Rojas as he was promoted to AAA after being just acquired. 

And that's deliberately leaving guys like Hidalgo and Bowen off from AA who need more work, as well as leaving off Adams and Ohl, who I believe are now pen fixtures.

So that's 13-14 arms to fill up the rotation for the Twins, AND the Saints. Is everyone having a great 2024? No. Will everyone be 100% healthy all of 2026? No. But that's enough arms for depth, for now and the near now, as well as room for a couple to begin put in the pen NOW-NOW for 2026. OR, included in possible trades for help elsewhere. (Just PLEASE don't touch the top 3 for now). That's a lot to work with for depth, and to help re-build the pen.

#3] It's not hard to squint a little and see a decent lineup/position roster for 2026, even with some obvious question marks.

Lewis has begun to look comfortable again. Anyone really want to give up the talented 26yo? Buxton is amazing and finally has his legs under him. Even in an inconsistent and injury interrupted 2025, Wallner still has a .323 OB%, .480 SLG%, and and OPS over .800. His career OPS is around .850 right now. Keaschall is just NOT Superman, despite his early flashes. But he's a damn fine prospect with a lot of talent and skills this team needs. Like him or not, Jeffers is still one of the better offensive catchers in the game.

The point is, there's SOMETHING to work with already in place. 

I've left the decent, solid, but not great Larnach out as I think he gets moved in the offseason due to need, and the preponderance of LH OF options in place. 

Ignoring the bench, the obvious holes are LF, 1B, and DH. And those 3 holes make a difference as to whether the offense is good or not. The good news, I guess, is those might be the easiest 3 spots to address. 

Is the oft injured enigma that is Emmanuel Rodriguez maybe the biggest key to the 2026 offense? He's a legitimate CF backup option, more than capable of being a very good corner OF, and brings some OB%, power and speed. Even in ANOTHER injury plagued season, he's got an OPS above .800 for St Paul. Bad luck? Still growing in to his still only 22yo body? IDK. But if he could be healthy, or relatively so, I'd just put him in LF and bat him at the bottom of the order and let it fly. (The Brewers path if you will).

If he keeps this up, Kaelen Culpepper could be ready June/July. That changes the complexion/depth/variety of the INF. But he's probably not ready opening day. (SEE: Keaschall). 

Could Gonzalez maybe also be a June/July option as a RH OF if he also keeps this up? Might Fedko just surprise the hell out of all of us as a 4th OF option sometime next year?

What if Roden starts transferring his really solid MILB/AAA numbers and becomes a solid ML player? Remember, we're still only talking about 132 PA in his rookie season as I type this. While not a true slugger, could he be part of the 1B conversation considering he has experience there?

Might the FO...new or not...be able to bring in an under 30yo 1B like long time Twins nemesis Josh Naylor...only making $10.9M this season...to help stabilize 1B/DH for a year or two?

OK, I'm getting long winded here. But the point is there ARE some options for LF, even as an initial platoon until Rodriguez and/or Jenkins are ready. 1B/DH might be a fairly inexpensive add. Squint your eyes a little for opening day, widen them a bit for June/July, and you/I can see a solid lineup that has more speed and athleticism than we've had for some time.

#3A] What is the DIRECTION of the offense? Power kills, and power kills! But a more well rounded lineup is best. We change coaching staffs, and they go to Toronto and have one of the best offenses in the league. We lower the team K numbers and the offense tanks. How much of that is players or approach? While not ignoring power...and they shouldnt...recent drafts have had a stronger focus on speed and athleticism. But DECIDE what your approach is going to be, and make sure you have the coaching staff in place to make it happen!

#4] I object to the idea that building a good bullpen is at all easy. It's a hell of a lot easier than building a starting staff for sure! And I also object to the idea that if you don't have the ability to compete for a playoff start, then who needs a closer, or a TOP pen. Well if you just give away games, of course you won't be able to compete.

The HOPE factor isn't hard when you look at the rotation and depth of talent. And the offense isn’t hard to see hope when you look at what's on hand, what's very close to making a difference, and just a solid add or two.

But trying to re-build a bullpen overnight to be competive is a different story. So if we want to cling to HOPE for 2026...or even 2027...where do we begin?

Again, sorry I'm rambling, but if you're reading this far, hang with me for a little longer. LOL

As of TODAY, you can probably write Sands and Topa in to 2 of the 8 man spots. (Topa is fringy at best). HOPEFULLY we see more of the 2024 version of Sands going forward.

BOTH of Adams and Ohl have been part of an experiment this season for guys they think have potential, but just aren't ML SP options. (There are other). They throw 2-4 innings every 4th day. That is preparing them, and others, to be able to throw 2-3 solid innings at the ML level ever 3 days. It means 1 time through a lineup, maybe 1 1/2 times. On occasion, they may be asked to go 2 times through. That means they, and swapped out once in a while since they have options, are 2 arms in the 7-8 spots who provide a bridge for the "better" arms 1-6. I think it's a really smart idea. But once the rotation settles down over the next couple days/weeks, I'd really love to see what each could do for 1 IP to see what might be there. Isn't this a trial and error 2 months?

You're going to see various arms like Hatch and Kriske, and others before the season is done, and a couple others brought in to ST, to just see if you can find some lighting. Remember, that's how we found Stewart and Thielbar. (Also Jeff Hoffman who we didn't keep. Ugh!). Over the years we've gotten guys like Harper, Morin, and Wisler for 1yr contributions. And that's just recent history.

So maybe/hopefully, we find ONE viable arm that route.

Despite being 35yo next season, I'd make Coulombe a priority FA singing due to familiarity between both parties. He assumes his same role as a 1 batter or 1 inning middle option. (Chaffin and others might be similar options). And we're still talking only $3-4M.

IF we have new owners. And IF they are willing to raise payroll beyond at least one solid BAT initially...not including a cheap depth piece or two...how great would it be to add 2 decent, not All Star quality arms from both sides for a combined $16M? I'm just sptballing here. A couple solid, proven veterans, who have some life left, to bridge the gap for the prospects to take over.

IF they do that, it provides a bridge for young arms to take over, and leaves the 2026 Twins with a mediocre pen at best. But it's better than being horrible.

But how about in addition to a handful of bridge arms, the FO actually makes some strong moves and just tell Bradley...for example...we're going to tweak your stuff and use you as a setup man and maybe even a closer. How about they tell MacLeod you've got pretty good stuff, but we just don't see you as a SP as the ML level, but you might be a really good pen option really soon. Lewis is not a bad prospect despite a rough 2025 season where they are changing his sequencing. Maybe he's potentially devastating with his decent velocity and repertoire including his amazing knuckleball. 

A couple solid FA signings to the pen with the limited options on hand, and making the hard decisions for certain prospects to make the transition could pay big dividends soon. 

I'm not super optimistic about 2026. But if we don't trade away from the front of our rotation, if we add at least ONE quality BAT, and if we add at least a couple solid BP arms to help out in this transition time, and move a couple of the depth arms with talent, I can see a bullpen that doesn't suck, and has potential. 

 

 

 

Posted

The Twins had over a third of their roster traded away. That means the players traded had some value and they still couldn't win? The problem isn't the front office, the problem is in the dugout. 

Posted
14 hours ago, MGX said:

I can agree with you on the Stewart trade, just doesn't fit. The Varland trade looks like a good trade & the Jax trade could be a very good trade. A 24 yr old SP whose held his own in MLB since he was 22 for 30 yr old reliever who first found success as a 27 yr old after not cutting as a starter sounds like a deal I'd take every day.

I liked Jax a lot, but I'm very happy that we got Taj Bradley in that trade. I think he will end up being a very good starting pitcher. 

Posted
13 hours ago, rv78 said:

That's is because there never was a consistant lineup. Thank injuries and Rocco for that. It would take a lot of research but I'd be willing to bet that the exact same lineup was never used for more than 3 or 4 days in a row all the while Rocco has been Manager. The players can't be consistant hitters when they don't get consistant playing time.

Not having a consistent lineup MIGHT be part of the problem. I'm no analyst, so I can't pinpoint the main problems. But whatever the case, the Twins were not winning enough this season, so frankly I'm very happy about this sell-off, re-set, or whatever you want to call it. Bring up some prospects, try some new players. I'm looking forward to seeing new players on the field and on the mound. We have a long way to go obviously, but I have to say the I really do feel some hope for this team. I'll be following the Twins no matter what happens.

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