Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes: Twins Should Be Decisive, Aggressive Sellers at Trade Deadline

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-Imagn Images

I find it a bit odd—not only online, but when I talk to people in real life—how much hedging is still happening with regard to the Minnesota Twins and their posture at this year's MLB trade deadline. A lot of people seemed to spend the All-Star break plotting out the final fortnight before the deadline and working out matrices of possibility, both wondering and opining about what the Twins will or should do based on various possible records over their first 10 games out of said break.

While I admire the impulse to seize upon any opportunity to reach the postseason, I think any optimism about the 2025 Twins doing so (or even the desire to wait and see if such optimism becomes more viable, this late in the decision-making window) is unfounded. For one thing, not all playoff berths are created equal, and if the Twins do win enough down the stretch to sneak into October, it will be as a second or third Wild Card entrant. That means a series played entirely on the road against a superior team. It's not at all the same thing to chase that as it is to chase a division title, or even to fight for positioning when you have a chance of winning the division, and might fall back into a Wild Card slot as something less than the best-case scenario.

In this case, there are a few problems with the idea of buying, and one huge one with the notion of standing pat. Firstly, the Tigers are way, way ahead in the division. They're playing poorly lately, and they still have an 11-game cushion. Nor are the Twins even the team pursuing them most closely. The division is gone, and has been for two months, ever since Minnesota ended its 13-game winning streak and resumed playing sluggish, sub-.500 baseball.

That leads to the second problem—and this is actually the first problem, in my opinion, but I'm making allowances for those who prefer to go after the playoffs whenever possible, all other considerations be damned. Here's the thing: This Twins team just is not good. Fundamentally, in the ways that matter and about which we should really care most, they're not good. I don't mean that they play sloppily or uninspired baseball (though, of course, they sometimes do). I don't mean to impugn the work ethic or baseball nous of anyone in the clubhouse or front office. I simply mean that the team isn't good enough that we should even care if they can eke into October. The playoffs should be a reward for a season-long proof of the wisdom and good work of the organization over that year and the ones before it, to acquire and develop good players and for those players to come through in big situations. This team hasn't earned that.

Over the last calendar year, the Twins are 85-88. Since the start of 2024, they're 127-131. Hell, since the start of 2021, they're 12 games under .500. Because that 2023 team gave the fans such a cathartic series of moments in the postseason, it's easy to forget that they were only 87-75 even that year. President of business and baseball operations Derek Falvey has stayed extremely committed to the core of this team, but it hasn't rewarded that faith. It's just not a good enough team to be accorded the degree of stability Falvey has chosen. He sees this as a winning operation that just needs more time. He's wrong.

I'm not advocating firing Falvey, who does many things well as an executive and in whom many people within baseball believe fervently—including those with whom he works in the Twins front office. He needs to change tack, though, and the hard part is trying to tell whether he realizes that. There have been times in the past when standing pat did make sense, on a hard, rational level. Fans have hated the stagnant trade deadlines and quiet offseasons of the last few years, but of course, one major reason for those was the financial constraints Falvey has faced due to the Pohlads yanking the purse strings shut just after opening them wide enough for him to splurge on four players (Byron Buxton, Pablo López, Christian Vázquez and Carlos Correa) whose salaries suddenly make up about 57% of his budget. Falvey is a smart and deeply respected baseball man.

However, other teams find the Twins frustratingly hard to deal with in trade negotiations, because Falvey is so value-focused and reluctant to make any trade that doesn't match his group's player evaluations—which, as we've seen, are not only out of step with the rest of the league, but just plain wrong. That's how you spend half a decade trying to win every year and still run a sub-.500 aggregate record. With Thad Levine (whose influence tended toward more aggressive moves, especially within seasons, and nimbler changes of direction) gone, the Falvey approach is also missing a key counterbalance. The chief executive needs to change his mode of operation, and quickly.

To their credit, the front office has let it be known that they're listening more openly than they might have in the past as this deadline approaches. That's why so many scouts have swooped down on their games lately, and (partially) why there will be a significant contingent of them at Joe Ryan's start Sunday in Colorado. There's a very real chance of one of Ryan, Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax being dealt, and even some chance (although a remote one) that the positional core will finally get its overdue shakeup, according to sources with teams who have talked to the Twins this month. Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and (especially) Ryan Jeffers have drawn interest, and while Jeffers would only be traded if the team got an unexpectedly excellent offer, the other two are more available.

All of the team's impending free agents (Vázquez, Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader and Chris Paddack) are available, sources said, and one or two could be dealt even if the team otherwise stands pat or tries to supplement the roster for the stretch run. The source of consternation, for potential trade partners, is that extracting one of those players from Falvey (especially a Falvey torn on the question of buying or selling at all) might be more trouble than it's worth. 

That's why it's important that the team break with the idea of a playoff pursuit this summer and get serious about positioning themselves for one next year, or in 2027. Buxton, Correa and López aren't going anywhere. They're the core to build around. Since the sale of the team has gone excruciatingly slowly and a more robust budget this winter isn't guaranteed, though, they need to build frugally around that trio. They also have to be brutally honest with themselves. That means admitting that the complementary pieces aren't currently good enough. It means trading Ryan (because he'll be very expensive over his final two years of arbitration eligibility and because they can get so much for him) or trading Duran (because he'll be very expensive over his final two years of arbitration eligibility, because they can get so much for him, and because he's a reliever). It means maximizing the infusion of young talent into the organization, so that the remaining prime years of Buxton, Correa and López aren't wasted. It doesn't have to mean acquiring teenagers who might be four years away, but it has to mean giving up on a roster that has proved itself insufficient and making space for real change going into next year.

The prize for which the team is in serious competition just isn't worth winning, and that's a result of the way ownership's betrayal and the front office's lack of agility have left them playing the same losing hand two years in a row. That cycle needs to be broken.

This is not the official editorial position of Twins Daily, or anything. It's just my own. This week, we had a great piece from Hans Birkeland on how the team might be more likely to approach the deadline, based on their most interesting past example. Later today and on Monday, we'll run a two-part series from Eric Blonigen on how the team could approach the deadline as buyers. For my money, though, the team shouldn't be studying playoff odds too closely or trying to make moves to get themselves into the playoffs with this basic core. They should be taking decisive action, by admitting that they need real change and then making it. They had a chance to do all of this last fall, but doubled down on the group they had. I think it was clear then (and is certainly clear now) that that was the wrong call. The question is whether the team has arrived at the same conclusion.

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[Patzky]

IT'S TONKIN TIME. And Keaschall time. 

The moves guaranteed to happen..

[Doctor Wu]

Don't even think about trading Joe Ryan. Anyone else on the current roster, other than Buxton, take the best offer. 

[D.C Twins]

"Falvey is a smart and deeply respected baseball man."

So does he have any trade value?

Sell baby sell...

[mikelink45]

With Vasquez going and no viable minor league option I cannot envision them trading Jeffers.   I think Ryan is also untouchable.  None of the young arms look good enough to replace him and Ober has to prove he can pitch again.  I think the core needs Ryan with Lopez for the future. 

Beyond that we have reached a point of no return and we need to move on.

[UhhOK]

Why am I rooting for the Rockies right now?  

[chpettit19]

Agree they should listen on everyone, disagree they need to make huge deals now on guys controlled for 2 more years. This is actually a time Falvey should stick to his guns on his demands for those guys. They have so much time to trade those guys that it'd be foolish to trade them for anything less than what appears to be an overpay. 

Duran and Jax are the more likely trade pieces than Ryan. It's hard to get value for big time pieces with that much control. Other teams are very hesitant to trade the type of pieces that the Twins should demand for him. Especially with 3 playoff runs of control left. He should return an MLB ready, or near ready, elite prospect plus other pieces. That is not an easy thing to get teams to give up. Don't accept anything less just because this team is going nowhere this year. That'd be even more foolish than holding onto this team and crossing your fingers for making the last wild card spot. Falvey should be a stubborn SOB on that.

And also disagree that it's automatically Lopez staying and Ryan going. If you can get a deal for Lopez that makes more sense than the offers for Ryan, then trade Lopez. Now or during the offseason. Just because people call him the #1 or the ace or whatever, doesn't mean he has to be the one to stay. He can absolutely be traded, and should be if that's what it takes to make the team better overall.

[D.C Twins]

Trade Duran, Jax, Coloumbe, Castro, Stewart, Bader, Paddack, Vazquez (pitchers and catchers always bring back more than you think), France, Larnach, and Topa.

If a team offers a sweetheart deal for Buck and he waives his no trade to play for a championship... do that too (I really like Buck, but he is not part of the next 'core')

Trade Correa for anything if someone is willing to take the salary (he is going to be an albatross the last two years... which is why nobody would probably take him). 

Keep Ryan, Ober and the other controllable pitching

Keep Lopez for now so you can trade higher on him at some point in the future. 

[Dawgzilla]

Trade either Jax or Duran....and don't get screwed...get 2 legit, high end prospects ..minimum.  See if Correa would also drop his ni-trade claus ang get a few more high-end prospects.  Wallner has to go down and Keashall is now a mainstay.  The other rookie (can't name him...outfielder...can't hit ..period).  If Ryan is traded to Red Sox, get more than just Duran (who I like a lot)...also need a very high-end prospects in deal.  Now, in summation, Twins will have a new ownership next year, let alone can fill squad with better free agents in positions if need (predicted higher budget), and not borderline players, let alone starting pitchers coming if TJ surgeries!!!!!!!!!!

[D.C Twins]

Correa is not part of a 'core' to build around 

He sole member of the 'rapidly eroding talent destined to be an albatross' category to desperately try to dump on another team. 

[DJL44]

“ It means trading Ryan (because he'll be very expensive over his final two years of arbitration eligibility”

He’s actually not. His arbitration values are likely $7M next season and $14M in 2027 which is an absolute bargain for an All-Star pitcher.

[Vanimal46]

36 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I'm not advocating firing Falvey, who does many things well as an executive and in whom many people within baseball believe fervently—including those with whom he works in the Twins front office.

This is where you lost me. We’re 9 years into his tenure and we are on pace to miss the playoffs in 4 out the last 5 seasons. He’s got to go. 

[D.C Twins]

'Falvey is a smart and deeply respected baseball man.'

Out of curiosity, is one criteria for the above picking up a manager's option year early when there would be no teams bidding against you for his services during the offseason? 

[D.C Twins]

"Monday, we'll run a two-part series from Eric Blonigen on how the team could approach the deadline as buyers."

I'll be a hard pass on that two-part series...

[karcherd]

23 minutes ago, Dawgzilla said:

Trade either Jax or Duran....and don't get screwed...get 2 legit, high end prospects ..minimum.  See if Correa would also drop his ni-trade claus ang get a few more high-end prospects.  Wallner has to go down and Keashall is now a mainstay.  The other rookie (can't name him...outfielder...can't hit ..period).  If Ryan is traded to Red Sox, get more than just Duran (who I like a lot)...also need a very high-end prospects in deal.  Now, in summation, Twins will have a new ownership next year, let alone can fill squad with better free agents in positions if need (predicted higher budget), and not borderline players, let alone starting pitchers coming if TJ surgeries!!!!!!!!!!

First, Wallner has proven himself at AAA, he either needs to figure it out up here or move on from him, I personally think he can put it together.  He is not a young prospect anymore, play him every day regardless of who is pitching and see if he can be counted on going forward.

New ownership will not automatically mean a higher budget.  The budget is not the sole issue, it is how the front office, i.e. Falvey chooses to allocate the dollars he is allocated.  Falvey needs to be the first to go.

 

[TL]

This may be a pipe dream but I really hope the new ownership situation becomes clear in the next two weeks and that group can have informal discussions with Falvey about the future payroll so he has some idea of what flexibility he has. Any new ownership group is going to want to do what it can to win over the fan base in their first year and lord knows this fan base needs that more than any. 

But I think that also means that new ownership really won’t be invested in the 2025 team (that’s Pohlad’s team) and would want the front office to focus on 2026. To me that means there should be money to keep (and even extend) Joe Ryan and Lopez, but everybody else should be fair game to try and improve next year. That means expiring contracts, all bullpen arms and anyone else for whom we can get excess value should be considered. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think there are three players who are untouchable on the Twins team — Buxton, Ryan, and Jeffers.  In each case, the Twins have no one available to replace them and would probably need to spend all of the trade return for them (and more) re-acquiring similar players.  

The idea that Ryan will be too expensive next year is nonsense.  Worst case scenario, his salary doubles twice in the next two years.  That still makes him a steal for a frontline starter.  Ober will be the more interesting case next year.  If he doesn’t turn back into old Ober, he’s going to be expensive for a guy who can’t get anybody out.  

Jeffers is needed because the cupboard is bare in catcher-land, so much so that some are advocating for re-signing Vasquez if he will sign cheap.  I don’t think that’s a good idea, but trying to come up with TWO major league caliber catchers for 2026 for a team with playoff aspirations is not something I look forward to trying. 

Buxton has become the heart and soul of the team.  As a player, he will still probably get hurt more often than we would like, but if we’ve learned nothing else this season, a healthy Buxton is a player to behold.  He’s their best player.  He really wants to be in Minnesota.  And, he is very obviously the (probably only) guy on the team that has the ability to rally the troops.  

For everybody else on the team, it isn’t difficult to see who the replacement for them will be sooner rather than later.  That should make them all available, for the right place.  It’s not a fire sale.  It’s allowing people to shop at your store.  Think “for sale” not “on sale”.  If Falvey can’t get the price that he wants (especially for guys with 2+ years of control left) then he should walk away.  

[thelanges5]

Much like the FO, I’ve been holding on to the fun and optimism of 2023. This series to start the 2nd half is my wake up call. 

This piece makes the most sense other than the Joe Ryan part. Parting with him is waving the white flag for 26-27. Ober is a huge ? for me and the young guys have been so erratic. Suddenly Pablo and Joe are the only rotation arms we can count on. 

Definitely sell the impending free agents, better to get something than nothing for them - Paddack, France, Bader, Coulombe, Castro, Vazquez. 

I say wait for the new ownership to make any deals for controllable guys (relievers are the exception) They will make their own decisions about who is in the FO and who they want to invest in or move. 

[Dman]

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Agree they should listen on everyone, disagree they need to make huge deals now on guys controlled for 2 more years. This is actually a time Falvey should stick to his guns on his demands for those guys. They have so much time to trade those guys that it'd be foolish to trade them for anything less than what appears to be an overpay. 

Duran and Jax are the more likely trade pieces than Ryan. It's hard to get value for big time pieces with that much control. Other teams are very hesitant to trade the type of pieces that the Twins should demand for him. Especially with 3 playoff runs of control left. He should return an MLB ready, or near ready, elite prospect plus other pieces. That is not an easy thing to get teams to give up. Don't accept anything less just because this team is going nowhere this year. That'd be even more foolish than holding onto this team and crossing your fingers for making the last wild card spot. Falvey should be a stubborn SOB on that.

And also disagree that it's automatically Lopez staying and Ryan going. If you can get a deal for Lopez that makes more sense than the offers for Ryan, then trade Lopez. Now or during the offseason. Just because people call him the #1 or the ace or whatever, doesn't mean he has to be the one to stay. He can absolutely be traded, and should be if that's what it takes to make the team better overall.

Yeah this where I am at. What you said plus trading Ryan would be a very, very tricky thing for this FO to do.  It's the type of trade that if it doesn't go well get's you fired and really ruins your resume as a decision maker throughout the league. 

As you noted the cost of getting a top of the rotation arm with essentially three years of control would be pretty astronomical and if you look at the Lopez trade as an example the Twins literally had to trade the AL batting champion for a pitcher who at the time was viewed more as a mid rotation arm.  So what would it take to get Ryan who just performed well at the All Star game?  Likely more than any contender could spare to move heading into the playoffs.  

I also agree they shouldn't feel forced to trade Jax or Duran at the deadline.  They could re-assess in the offseason or wait until next years deadline. If you are trading elite bullpen arms the return should be meaningful and hopefully for things you don't currently have in the system.  I would be fine to walk away from anything less than an overpay there.

Yep guys on one year deals, I would trade all of them. I don't know if any team would have interest in Clemens, but since he is pre-arb has an .800 OPS and has been pretty clutch if they could get something meaningful I would trade him as well.

[NYCTK]

Hate that I was right about this team. But means it was pretty obvious before the season even started. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Doctor Wu said:

Don't even think about trading Joe Ryan. Anyone else on the current roster, other than Buxton, take the best offer. 

Since we are all imagining untouchables Sim has been as reliable as the other youngsters. Not sure who would be interested but the slow study upward trajectory intrigues me.  If all else are gone a Pablo Ryan Sim top three plus whomever we acquire from Said trades isn't gosh awful. Truly the problem is as always, hitting. 

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah this where I am at. What you said plus trading Ryan would be a very, very tricky thing for this FO to do.  It's the type of trade that if it doesn't go well get's you fired and really ruins your resume as a decision maker throughout the league. 

As you noted the cost of getting a top of the rotation arm with essentially three years of control would be pretty astronomical and if you look at the Lopez trade as an example the Twins literally had to trade the AL batting champion for a pitcher who at the time was viewed more as a mid rotation arm.  So what would it take to get Ryan who just performed well at the All Star game?  Likely more than any contender could spare to move heading into the playoffs.  

I also agree they shouldn't feel forced to trade Jax or Duran at the deadline.  They could re-assess in the offseason or wait until next years deadline. If you are trading elite bullpen arms the return should be meaningful and hopefully for things you don't currently have in the system.  I would be fine to walk away from anything less than an overpay there.

 

Yep guys on one year deals, I would trade all of them. I don't know if any team would have interest in Clemens, but since he is pre-arb has an .800 OPS and has been pretty clutch if they could get something meaningful I would trade him as well.

The Jax as a starter scenario becomes a bit more compelling..

[palmspringstwinsfan]

Well reasoned article. I would keep the pitching core and make everyone else but Buxton available 

[jorgenswest]

What are the comps for an all star level pitcher or closer are trading at the deadline with 2 additional years of service time?

I did find one player last year that was traded with an additional two years of service time. Jazz Chisholm for the previous was an average hitter last year and the previous year. He did get a fair return but not one that would change a franchise. They received a catcher who they are finding out really can’t play catcher.  Though he has started only 32 games he leads the league in passed balls. Runners steal bases nearly 90% of the time. He starts more at DH. They would be better off with Chisholm this year and probably could have traded him for near the same return. Perhaps they would have found someone that can play defense at the major league level. That is the risk with prospects. The reports look good as the play in the minors but the speed of the game in the majors is several levels up.

I really think it is foolish to trade Ryan or Duran now. How much more should they expect to get in trade now as opposed to next year? The sweet spot for the trade is with one additional year of service time.

It is much easier to trade an all star starter or closer than it is to acquire one. Let the new owners make that decision. Maybe they will put more money into the payroll and a trade won’t be necessary. If not they can trade them next summer.

[Whitey333]

I agree with the premise of the article.  It is past time to sell.  It should have started this past off season.  No one should be considered untouchable on this team should a great deal come along.  However other than the players finishing out their contracts I don't see Twins doing anything significant. As for new ownership:  a new vision would help and a new direction.  The Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of past 4 years, that alone should get Falvey fired.  Plus the Twins payroll dollars are very much in line with other teams in mid market.  In fact in many cases it is higher. Falvey has done a bad job allocating the payroll budget given him.  I do not anticipate a new owner throwing money into this payroll pit.  I suspect people will be disappointed by that.  To me the prudent thing would be to clean house in the front office and dugout.  Dump some of those high salaries and re work payroll to something manageable and practical.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I tend to agree not to trade all star quality players with more than one year of control remaining, especially pitchers. It’s very hard to get even a fair return, much less an overpay. Keep Ryan and Duran, keep Jeffers since catching is in very short supply..

Other than that, everyone should be available. This is the year to find out what we have not play guys who won’t be here next year to eke out two or three more wins. Make a decision on Castro and Bader. Either they're back next year or they’re traded and if you don’t know if you can bring them back next year, trade them. This group is done. 

[TNtwins85]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Agree they should listen on everyone, disagree they need to make huge deals now on guys controlled for 2 more years. This is actually a time Falvey should stick to his guns on his demands for those guys. They have so much time to trade those guys that it'd be foolish to trade them for anything less than what appears to be an overpay. 

Duran and Jax are the more likely trade pieces than Ryan. It's hard to get value for big time pieces with that much control. Other teams are very hesitant to trade the type of pieces that the Twins should demand for him. Especially with 3 playoff runs of control left. He should return an MLB ready, or near ready, elite prospect plus other pieces. That is not an easy thing to get teams to give up. Don't accept anything less just because this team is going nowhere this year. That'd be even more foolish than holding onto this team and crossing your fingers for making the last wild card spot. Falvey should be a stubborn SOB on that.

And also disagree that it's automatically Lopez staying and Ryan going. If you can get a deal for Lopez that makes more sense than the offers for Ryan, then trade Lopez. Now or during the offseason. Just because people call him the #1 or the ace or whatever, doesn't mean he has to be the one to stay. He can absolutely be traded, and should be if that's what it takes to make the team better overall.

You won’t get a deal for Lopez. He’s hurt right now.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, TNtwins85 said:

You won’t get a deal for Lopez. He’s hurt right now.

And the rest of my post was about not having to trade people right now. They can get a deal for him in the offseason when I think it makes a billion times more sense to trade any of their guys who are controlled for 2 more years. Instead of trading them now when they won't get equal value just because people are upset this season isn't going well.

[TwinsChupacabra]

The problem with doing the right thing and becoming sellers is that the incompetent front office who has bungled so many things will be the ones to do it.  Have any confidence?  If you do, you have not been paying attention.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

Hate that I was right about this team. But means it was pretty obvious before the season even started. 

I would concur with this assessment that the team was not positioned properly going forward in 2025 , failing to fill weaknesses this team is not good enough and doesn't deserve a post season opportunity  ...

It's a tough pill to swallow watching this team ...