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Twins Trade For Noah Davis: Can Minnesota Unlock His Potential?

Cody Christie
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Cody Christie GOAT

Cody Christie

Twins Daily Contributor
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As the trade deadline approaches, the Minnesota Twins continue to tinker around the edges of their pitching depth. On Tuesday, the club quietly acquired right-handed pitcher Noah Davis from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for cash considerations. Davis, 27, was designated for assignment by L.A. after a historically rough outing, but the Twins see enough in his underlying numbers to take a flier.

With an open 40-man roster spot and no need for a corresponding move, the Twins have optioned Davis to Triple-A St. Paul, where he’ll join a bullpen mix that has seen plenty of turnover this summer.

A Forgettable Fourth
Let’s address the elephant in the room: Davis’ last appearance in the majors was the stuff of nightmares. On July 4th, he entered a lopsided game against Houston in the fifth inning and recorded one out to close the frame. But when he returned for the sixth, things spiraled out of control. Davis allowed 10 earned runs on six hits, three walks, and a hit batter in just 1 1/3 innings. The exclamation point came via a grand slam before he could record the inning’s first out.

The meltdown ballooned his season ERA to 19.50 and earned him a swift demotion followed by a DFA. It’s the kind of performance that might end a pitcher’s season (or even career) but the Twins are banking on the idea that there’s more under the surface.

 Finding a New Gear in Triple-A

While Davis’ big league ERA is unsightly, his minor league track record in 2025 paints a different picture. In 32 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City, he’s posted a 3.94 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and a 48.1% groundball rate. His walk rate (10.9%) has crept up, but the whiff and groundball numbers are intriguing.

Throughout the 2025 season, the Dodgers have transitioned Davis into more of a full-time relief role. He’s long been a starter in the minors, but shorter outings have allowed him to lean into a more aggressive pitch mix.

Pitch Arsenal Breakdown
According to Baseball Savant, Davis primarily relies on a three-pitch mix. He has thrown nine four-seamers and four screwballs this year, but they are part of his primary usage:

  1. Sweeper (80 mph, 41% usage): His most-used pitch that has held batters to a .187 xBA and a .387 xSLG. He gets a lot of swing and misses with this pitch (50.0 Whiff%), which is one of the reasons he has increased its usage this season. 
  2. Sinker (94.5 mph, 35.1% usage): This was his most used pitch in 2024, but he’s cut back as he’s increased his sweeper usage. He’s capable of reaching the upper 90s with this pitch in shorter stints. It has the highest Put Away% of any of his offerings (36.4%), but gets hit hard with a .800 SLG (.649 xSLG). 
  3. Cutter (88.5 mph, 14.2% usage): His expected numbers on his cutter are nearly perfect with a .066 xBA and a .096 xSLG. Last season, he threw this pitch over 20% of the time so it might be an offering the Twins want him to use more regularly. 

A Low-Risk Addition With Upside

For the Twins, Davis checks a few key boxes:

  1. Optionable for the rest of 2025: He adds depth without clogging the 26-man roster.
  2. Groundball profile: Relievers need to get strikeouts but the Twins could use him in a long relief role similar to Travis Adams. Some of his expected numbers are better than his overall performance this season.
  3. Developmental upside: The Twins can stash him at Triple-A and see if he can benefit from mechanical and approach tweaks after joining the organization. There seems to be some more swing and miss to be unlocked in his pitch mix. 

With rumors swirling about the team considering trades for Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Danny Coulombe, the addition of Davis may serve as insurance in case the team reshuffles the bullpen ahead of the deadline. He won’t be the centerpiece of any postseason plans, but he could become a useful shuttle arm or even a surprise contributor down the stretch.

Davis likely isn’t the kind of name that moves the needle for Twins fans, especially coming off a headline-grabbing disaster in his last MLB appearance. But Minnesota saw something in his underlying metrics and pitch mix that made him worth a look.

Given the minimal cost and remaining team control, it’s a worthwhile gamble for a team that has to think creatively when building pitching depth. If the Twins can help Davis harness his stuff, he might be more than just a footnote in a busy July.

What do you think of the Twins taking a chance on Davis? Can Minnesota's coaching staff unlock his potential? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

 

 


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Parfigliano Minnesota Twins

Parfigliano

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7 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I have no problem taking a chance on the guy as long as it’s not the only trade we make this season. Not sure I would have devoted an article to the move. Seems more like a footnote in the transaction section of the weekly recap.

"a footnote in the transaction section of the weekly recap" is TC sweet spot.

Doctor Gast Wichita Wind Surge

Doctor Gast

Verified Member
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I don't know why the Twins think that they can fix a player that LAD has given up on. IMO, LAD has one of the best development programs. IMO, if LAD can't do anything with a player, nobody can. Let's see, how have they done in the past with Margot, Carmargo & Cartaya? If they think they can improve on a Rox reject, then I'd understand.

Falvey is LAD's favorite dumping site. If they want to unload a player, they'll call him up & give him some analytical spiel & he bites. Why DFA a player for nothing when you have Falvey who'll pay for them.

I suppose they think that qualifies for a deadline acquisition & say we're good, we tried.

mikelink45 Minnesota Twins

mikelink45

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

I have no problem taking a chance on the guy as long as it’s not the only trade we make this season. Not sure I would have devoted an article to the move. Seems more like a footnote in the transaction section of the weekly recap.

Based on Twins history, what else can they write about?  Uninspiring, but something.

jmlease1 Cedar Rapids Kernels

jmlease1

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16 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't know why the Twins think that they can fix a player that LAD has given up on. IMO, LAD has one of the best development programs. IMO, if LAD can't do anything with a player, nobody can. Let's see, how have they done in the past with Margot, Carmargo & Cartaya? If they think they can improve on a Rox reject, then I'd understand.

I suppose they think that qualifies for a deadline acquisition & say we're good, we tried.

Dodgers have a fine track record on pitcher development, but they ain't perfect (they've notably needed acquire relievers other ways at different points). Same with TB: they're great at player development, but the Twins still plucked Joe Ryan off them cheap and turned him up another notch to where he's a deserving all-star. Let's not give so much credit to another organization. (I mean, I was told repeatedly that Noah Miller was going to turn into a starting SS with the Dodgers and they were going to fix all of the damage we'd supposedly done to him. How's that working out? Because he still looks like the exact same all-glove no-hit guy he's always been.)

It's a low wattage move, but normally I'd be ok with buying a guy off another team like this to see if there's something you can turn around. I'm less enthusiastic here, because it's taking up a 40-man slot, which makes it less likely the Twins will consider adding someone like Sabato and giving him a chance to see if he can do anything this season absent more significant changes at the deadline...which I just don't see happening.

It's...fine. I'm ok with churning the back of the 40-man to try and uncover a diamond in the rough. This guy's had some injuries and control problems and is a relatively recent convert to relieving, and the Twins have a pretty good track record in converting failed starters into bullpen weapons, so I can understand the thinking. I'm just not sure it's the best use of the last slot on the 40-man right now.

Rufus College Ball

Rufus

Verified Member
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2 hours ago, CRF said:

Why do we always seem to try and find guys that need "fixing"? Howz about finding some guys that DON'T need fixing for a change! 

We?

Doctor Gast Wichita Wind Surge

Doctor Gast

Verified Member
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15 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Dodgers have a fine track record on pitcher development, but they ain't perfect (they've notably needed acquire relievers other ways at different points). Same with TB: they're great at player development, but the Twins still plucked Joe Ryan off them cheap and turned him up another notch to where he's a deserving all-star. Let's not give so much credit to another organization. (I mean, I was told repeatedly that Noah Miller was going to turn into a starting SS with the Dodgers and they were going to fix all of the damage we'd supposedly done to him. How's that working out? Because he still looks like the exact same all-glove no-hit guy he's always been.)

You are comparing this trade to the Joe Ryan trade? TB never thought of DFAing Ryan, he was never a project. He was a surplus of TB's MLB-ready SPs. They needed offense that they lacked & we had Cruz, who led the Twins' offense for years. Davis is nothing like Ryan! 

Who told you that Miller was going to start for the Dodgers? I sure didn't. I did say that they'll probably use him in a strategic trade to a team that needs a GG SS., Evaluators say that he's MLB caliber GG now, Miller had a .700 OPS at AA before being promoted to the LAD organization's AAA. He's predicted to be MLB-ready sometime next year, How have Margot & Doncon fared? Margot had impacted the team negatively & Doncon was never going to stick at SS or be able to hit enough to make it at any position he's capable of playing. If you can play SS like Miller you'll always find a home, any hitting he'll be able to recover is only icing.

jmlease1 Cedar Rapids Kernels

jmlease1

Verified Member
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9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are comparing this trade to the Joe Ryan trade? TB never thought of DFAing Ryan, he was never a project. He was a surplus of TB's MLB-ready SPs. They needed offense that they lacked & we had Cruz, who led the Twins' offense for years. Davis is nothing like Ryan! 

Who told you that Miller was going to start for the Dodgers? I sure didn't. I did say that they'll probably use him in a strategic trade to a team that needs a GG SS., Evaluators say that he's MLB caliber GG now, Miller had a .700 OPS at AA before being promoted to the LAD organization's AAA. He's predicted to be MLB-ready sometime next year, How have Margot & Doncon fared? Margot had impacted the team negatively & Doncon was never going to stick at SS or be able to hit enough to make it at any position he's capable of playing. If you can play SS like Miller you'll always find a home, any hitting he'll be able to recover is only icing.

Try again. My point on the Ryan trade was that even an organization as well-respected as TB can miss on what they have in their own players. Do you really think they would still have done that deal in hindsight? They missed on IDing Ryan's potential.

Miller had better be a gold glove MLB SS, because otherwise he has almost no value. Great, he finally barely cleared a .700 OPS in AA to get to league average in a relatively small sample size. Even if he's Andrelton Simmons on defense (unlikely), he's going to get smoked at the plate unless something changes. (BTW, Simmons had a .791 OPS in AA against a league average of .709) Simmons could at least hit some when he first came up; Miller looks more like end of career Simmons at the plate, which pushed him out of the league at 32 because while he was still a fine defensive SS he was a zero at the plate.

But my point stands: no team is so good at player development that you should ignore their cast-offs or refuse to trade with them. Teams will miss on guys. Players might need a new perspective to get their own stuff together. What works on one guy might not work on another.

Is it going to happen here? Probably not, Davis looks fairly marginal. But you can't let organizational reputation block you from making a deal.

LastOnePicked FCL Twins

LastOnePicked

Verified Member
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Posted
3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The Twins continue to inspire!  It will take a few drinks to overcome my excitement, but then they have fixed so many of their pickups!  

After a few drinks that ERA is going to look a lot more attractive.

DocBauer All-Star

DocBauer

Old-Timey Member
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I think a team like the Twins should ALWAYS look at arms that couldn't take that next step as a starter and MIGHT have the mix to be a good reliever. Or someone coming odd injury. That's how they got Stewart. 

But Davis had pretty mediocre numbers in the minors, and has been generally awful at the ML level as well. Are there some pitches and some underlying numbers that offer SOME intrigue? Maybe. But to be on the 40 man? I know he's an easy DFA at some point, but I only see some possible depth/help for St Paul.

Fire Dan Gladden FCL Twins

Fire Dan Gladden

Verified Member
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I realize we are in a slow news cycle right now, but take this move for what it is. He cost basically nothing, he blocks no one, he goes right to AAA.

Don't act like these moves may not have value. Thielbar, Clemens, Castro were all basically written off. The TD peanut gallery loves riding the Brent Rooker train. They don't all work, but some do. The Twins see something they think they might be able to unlock. Take a swing and see what happens.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I think a team like the Twins should ALWAYS look at arms that couldn't take that next step as a starter and MIGHT have the mix to be a good reliever. Or someone coming odd injury. That's how they got Stewart. 

But Davis had pretty mediocre numbers in the minors, and has been generally awful at the ML level as well. Are there some pitches and some underlying numbers that offer SOME intrigue? Maybe. But to be on the 40 man? I know he's an easy DFA at some point, but I only see some possible depth/help for St Paul.

I'd like them to promote guys and use their own guys more often, faster. If they don't think they have guys, maybe they should resign. 

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