Mariners 2, Twins 1: Twins Rally in 9th Again, but Lose Second Straight Walkoff Heartbreaker

[Hans Birkeland]

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (110 Pitches, 75 Strikes, 68.1%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.378), Carlos Correa (-.201), Ryan Jeffers (-.141)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

The gang finally got fully back together this weekend with the returns of Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner, and the results have been pretty wild. On Friday, an incredible comeback against the untouchable Andrés Muñoz (though not really untouchable for the Twins, historically) led to an extra-innings win. On Saturday they made their comeback against Muñoz's backup, Carlos Vargas, but the extra-innings execution was not along for the ride, and the Twins were walked off on a ground ball by Cole Young, the Mariners rookie making his debut. 

On Sunday, the Twins turned to Chris Paddack, who has been the best he has ever been in his seven-year career, despite a woeful six strikeouts per nine innings. Turning that piece of data on its head, Paddack struck out two in a nearly immaculate inning in the first, putting emphasis on his breaking stuff and making the M's look foolish.

Luis Castillo took the ball for Seattle, and has been a nearly elite pitcher for quite a while now. Early in his career, he featured an unhittable changeup. When he arrived in Seattle a few years ago, his changeup became far less prominent, as well as less effective—but his slider took off and became elite, still complementing a riding four-seam fastball in the upper 90s. Last year, some of his fastball characteristics backed up, and Seattle even explored trading him this offseason. This year, his slider hasn't been effective at all. All the while, though, his results have never been anything but great.

He looked it today, allowing lone baserunners in each of the first five innings but getting key strikeouts when he needed them, with both his changeup and slider looking plus-plus. He nearly hit Willi Castro with three separate sliders, all resulting in swinging strikes, and his fastball velocity sat 95-97 MPH. He would go on to complete six shutout innings.

Paddack cruised through the first three innings, but started to struggle the second time through the lineup. In the fourth. JP Crawford singled sharply to begin the frame and dear friend Jorge Polanco roped a line drive to the deepest part of center field that Harrison Bader tracked down for the first out. Julio Rodríguez walked, and Paddack then got all-world catcher Cal Raleigh to strike out swinging on a backup slider in the middle of the zone. Randy Arozarena then laced a fastball right back up the middle, but Kody Clemens made a good stab on it to retire the side.

He made an even better play in the fifth:

That allowed Paddack to remain efficient, and he only needed 72 pitches to complete his first six, scoreless innings. However, after an impressive strikeout of Rodríguez on a sharp slider to begin the seventh, Raleigh got his revenge and slaughtered a first-pitch curveball below the zone for a game-changing home run.

Paddack would stay on for the eighth. His velocity held up better than in some of his previous outings, hitting 96 MPH in the seventh and 95 MPH in the eighth. On his 103rd pitch, he struck out Ben Williamson on a filthy changeup. On his 104th pitch, he allowed a double to Crawford, but was allowed to stay on to face Polanco, whom he retired on a grounder to Correa. Is there a term for road loss complete game?

There would be no need to pin one down. Facing Muñoz in the 9th, Clemens drew a one-out walk, and Ty France grounded a ball through the five-hole for a single. A wild pitch advanced the runners, and Harrison Bader lifted a fly ball deep enough to score Clemens, giving Muñoz his second blown save of the year against the Twins. He also had one in 2023 thanks to Max Kepler, and in 2022 courtesy of Byron Buxton.

Some Griffin Jax Luck™ began the bottom half of the ninth, with Rodríguez bouncing a ball up the middle that Clemens couldn't make a play on. Jax managed to strike out the magma-hot Raleigh on a devastating sweeper. Rodríguez, who wasn't running in the Raleigh at-bat, did run with Arozarena at the plate, and Jeffers airmailed the throw, allowing Rodríguez to scamper to third. Arozarena made it a moot point, as he singled up the middle for a second straight walkoff Seattle win.

Stray Observations:

-Trevor Larnach seems to love hitting against Castillo. I remember the Twins facing the right-hander in 2023, while he was riding a hot stretch in which no one could touch him. Larnach hit a huge triple that opened the floodgates in a key Twins win. Today he was 2-for-3 against Castillo, and looked quite comfortable in each at-bat.

-Wallner looked pretty good, as well. He looked silly swinging a sword at a Castillo changeup in the first, but rebounded to draw a tough walk. He roped a 113-MPH single in his second at-bat, and nearly homered in his third.

-The Mariners look a lot different when their offense is being carried by a superstar. I didn't expect it would be Raleigh, who has been the equivalent of Ryan Jeffers with more slug and less contact thus far in his career. With him now the league leader in homers, pairing him with one of Rodríguez's customary summer hot streaks could make the Mariners legitimate contenders, given their elite pitching.

What’s Next: Joe Ryan (5-2, 2.57 ERA) opposes the A's big free-agent acquisition, Luis Severino (1-4, 3.89 ERA), as the Twins conclude their trip through two minor-league ballparks and Seattle with a set in Sacramento. Ryan looks to build on his All-Star case (just like around this time in 2022, 2023 and 2024), while Severino looks to end his team's current six-game losing streak.

Postgame Interviews:
 

Coming soon.

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Jax	15	0	0	18	15	48
Sands	15	0	21	6	0	42
Alcalá	11	0	0	28	0	39
Stewart	0	0	17	11	0	28
Durán	0	0	13	14	0	27
Funderburk	19	0	0	0	0	19
Varland	0	0	0	18	0	18
Topa	0	0	0	10	0	10

 

View full article

[Parfigliano]

A series they easily could have swept but in the end lost 1-2.  Bats need to get going.

 

[Mrs. Baseball]

Great performance by Paddack. He deserved better. This stat is probably kept somewhere but the Twins appear to lead the league in infield hits allowed. Take a breath and go get 3 in Sacramento.

[gmwannabe]

Could have used Buxton's bat today.  He just had 10 days off, why now? Same goes for Lee over Lewis. Give them their off days against lesser opponents like the Athletics coming up.

[LewFordLives]

If a team is going to play a lot of close games, then they have to do the little things right. The Twins just don't. Sloppy base running did them in yesterday, and the defense let them down in the 9th today. This has been the story all season.

[Aggies7]

Would really be dangerous if the offense could ever figure out how to be consistent.

[IndyTwinsFan]

16 minutes ago, Aggies7 said:

Would really be dangerous if the offense could ever figure out how to be consistent.

Unfortunately, I'm not holding out much hope that that's going to happen anytime soon.

[chinmusic]

22 minutes ago, gmwannabe said:

Could have used Buxton's bat today.  He just had 10 days off, why now?

He was activated on Friday from concussion protocol, and immediately played 2 extra inning games.  I would guess it was pre-planned as a precautionary measure.

[Mark G]

17 minutes ago, chinmusic said:

He was activated on Friday from concussion protocol, and immediately played 2 extra inning games.  I would guess it was pre-planned as a precautionary measure.

Ah, yes, pre-planned.  As a former supervisor of mine once said "we need a plan......we have got to have a plan......I don't even care if it is a GOOD plan......he would have done well on the Twins.  Never look a gift plan in the mouth.  🤕

[h2oface]

5-7 since the streak. A losing team. Back to a minor league ballpark for 4 (not 3). What a waste of another great starter performance. The scoring run should’ve never been on base, much less 2nd and definitely not third. Choking defense. 

[Blyleven2011]

The games were stressful  , exciting and competitive  , unfortunately we lost the series ...

Paddack dominated again today , can't blame the pitching , offense did keep him from getting the loss by scoring 1 run to tie it up in the ninth , so can we blame the offense for lollygagging  ...

I can't resist , I'm blaming the manager on get away day for resting to many better players at one time ...

Why not have Correa have a Monday,  Castro on Tuesday,  buxton on Wednesday  , and so on  , have a better plan on giving the days rest , spread it out  ...

Let's have a better plan on resting our players Rocco and why is it the players that receive the most money are the one with the most rested days , rested days do not prevent injuries  ..

 

[saviking]

1 hour ago, Mrs. Baseball said:

Great performance by Paddack. He deserved better. This stat is probably kept somewhere but the Twins appear to lead the league in infield hits allowed. Take a breath and go get 3 in Sacramento.

Someone should look up how much (lack there of) run support the Twins have given Paddock in the last 8 games or so. Pretty sure its pathetic. 

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

A series they easily could have swept but in the end lost 1-2.  Bats need to get going.

Agreed, but Twins could have easily been swept as well. Close games, but good teams win them. After Friday's dramatic win, I was expecting this team to start soaring again. Mistakes did them in. 

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

The games were stressful  , exciting and competitive  , unfortunately we lost the series ...

Paddack dominated again today , can't blame the pitching , offense did keep him from getting the loss by scoring 1 run to tie it up in the ninth , so can we blame the offense for lollygagging  ...

I can't resist , I'm blaming the manager on get away day for resting to many better players at one time ...

Why not have Correa have a Monday,  Castro on Tuesday,  buxton on Wednesday  , and so on  , have a better plan on giving the days rest , spread it out  ...

Let's have a better plan on resting our players Rocco and why is it the players that receive the most money are the one with the most rested days , rested days do not prevent injuries  ..

 

Are we now complaining about Brooks Lee getting an off day? The guy with a .613 OPS? 71 OPS+? .541 OPS and .219 BA for the month of May? I assume you weren't upset with Jonah Bride or Christian Vazquez being on the bench, so the only other option left with Buxton today was Lee. That's our big complaint for the day? The guy who isn't hitting well sat for another guy who isn't hitting well in the 9 hole?

[CRF]

The pitching is kicking ass...the offense is getting their asses kicked. Another wasted pitching performance today. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chinmusic said:

He was activated on Friday from concussion protocol, and immediately played 2 extra inning games.  I would guess it was pre-planned as a precautionary measure.

Agreed. He didn't have time off on vacation....

[Vanimal46]

The Mariners and Twins are carbon copies of each other. It’s why we matched up so evenly against them. We both have top of the line pitching and below average offenses which will hold both teams back to 85 ish wins. 

I have no idea why Seattle or Minnesota didn’t pony up in the offseason for Pete Alonso. He would have done so much good for either team. 

[Blyleven2011]

34 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

The Mariners and Twins are carbon copies of each other. It’s why we matched up so evenly against them. We both have top of the line pitching and below average offenses which will hold both teams back to 85 ish wins. 

I have no idea why Seattle or Minnesota didn’t pony up in the offseason for Pete Alonso. He would have done so much good for either team. 

Has Seattle since the Cano signing ponyed up for a big contract , Castillo was an extention , memory doesn't recall any big free agent signings since Cano ...

I think your right that the 2 teams are carbon copies of each other  ...

[thelanges5]

2 hours ago, IndyTwinsFan said:

Unfortunately, I'm not holding out much hope that that's going to happen anytime soon.

Agreed.  We’ve been waiting since Mid-August 2024. Frustrating club. Need some wins in Sac-Town but I’m not convinced they can score there. All they did was make excuses at Tampa’s MiLB park. 

[tony&rodney]

I was driving and listening to the game on the radio today. Wondered why Jax pitched to Arozarena in the 9th inning. Rowdy Tellez is a potential DP or K, or walk Tellez too and have a force at any base with two bottom of the lineup hitters. Was there a reason noted anywhere or any discussion on this? This situation also happened on Saturday night. I was curious if anyone had thoughts on the strategy.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, Mark G said:

Ah, yes, pre-planned.  As a former supervisor of mine once said "we need a plan......we have got to have a plan......I don't even care if it is a GOOD plan......he would have done well on the Twins.  Never look a gift plan in the mouth.  🤕

They played 2 extra inning games, yes. More importantly, they play 8 more straight from Sunday through Sunday. Having him ready and available against the A’s…….team they should & need to beat is a good idea.

Castillo also has a wicked slider, so Byron missing him as an opposing starter probably factored into decision as well.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

I was driving and listening to the game on the radio today. Wondered why Jax pitched to Arozarena in the 9th inning. Rowdy Tellez is a potential DP or K, or walk Tellez too and have a force at any base with two bottom of the lineup hitters. Was there a reason noted anywhere or any discussion on this? This situation also happened on Saturday night. I was curious if anyone had thoughts on the strategy.

At first it just sounds like hind sight complaining, but I gotta say that since the only run that mattered was at 3B, (with one out) I like the thought of at least walking Arozarena (he probably steals - particularly after Jeffers was fresh off a throwing error) and then Telez if necessary.

Force at home or double play in order with infield up halfway.

Not a bad strategy at all!!

[JD-TWINS]

33 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Has Seattle since the Cano signing ponyed up for a big contract , Castillo was an extention , memory doesn't recall any big free agent signings since Cano ...

I think your right that the 2 teams are carbon copies of each other  ...

Raleigh got signed for a bunch of years but I do think north of $100M. I assume they’ve tied up Rodriguez……..I looked, $210M for 12 years “with the potential” to be $470M over 17 years. They’ve committed some bucks!!!

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

At first it just sounds like hind sight complaining, but I gotta say that since the only run that mattered was at 3B, (with one out) I like the thought of at least walking Arozarena (he probably steals - particularly after Jeffers was fresh off a throwing error) and then Telez if necessary.

Force at home or double play in order with infield up halfway.

Not a bad strategy at all!!

I actually said out loud after the Jeffers throw, "Got to walk Randy here", as I was driving along. I'm curious if there was discussion on the TV because neither guy on the radio said anything. Am I missing something here? Jax is not a guy who struggles to throw strikes.

[JD-TWINS]

Didn’t see the game today until the Golf Tournaments were settled - tuned in Top of 9th. Bad stuff happened after I saw the wild pitch and Bader’s sac fly.

How about Chris Paddack?!?!

10K’s - 5/6 baserunners over 8 innings - let the PEN rest ……….could not have asked for anything better from him nor anyone!

When Seattle comes to Target late in June for 4 games they gotta pitch Raleigh like Barry Bonds - he cannot beat you! I know he struck out late Saturday and Jax & Paddack both got him today……..don’t care! He hit 4 HR’s in 3 games and they don’t have that much else in their line-up to worry about. Gotta pitch around him.

[FlyingFinn]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm curious if there was discussion on the TV because neither guy on the radio said anything.

No discussion at all, which surprised me. Maybe they thought Arozarena is a better strikeout candidate??

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

No discussion at all, which surprised me. Maybe they thought Arozarena is a better strikeout candidate??

Ok, thank you. My next question is whether I'm losing my brain thinking this seemed like a no brain decision to walk Arozarena. Same as the night before too. Bases loaded that throw home creates an out. What am I missing? Generally don't like second guessing but I thought it was a for sure thing last night and today I said it out loud because it seemed so straight forward. What in modern analytics or managing changed that age old  strategy?

[Bodie]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I actually said out loud after the Jeffers throw, "Got to walk Randy here", as I was driving along. I'm curious if there was discussion on the TV because neither guy on the radio said anything. Am I missing something here? Jax is not a guy who struggles to throw strikes.

No, he's not struggling to throw strikes, he's just struggling!

[Riverbrian]

The Twins pitching has been incredibly good. 

When the offense has been average... we go on winning streaks. 

When the offense is below average. Margins don't increase... cushion isn't created and an infield ground ball in the 9th can be the difference. 

As fans of the Twins. I think we will have to get use to the 9th inning mattering. 

 

[karcherd]

45 minutes ago, Bodie said:

No, he's not struggling to throw strikes, he's just struggling!

Jax after a couple of rough outings to start has been his usual effective self.  He only gave up two runs in 14 appearances in May, I am not sure I would call that struggling.