Twins Video
Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K (110 Pitches, 75 Strikes, 68.1%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.378), Carlos Correa (-.201), Ryan Jeffers (-.141)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):
The gang finally got fully back together this weekend with the returns of Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner, and the results have been pretty wild. On Friday, an incredible comeback against the untouchable Andrés Muñoz (though not really untouchable for the Twins, historically) led to an extra-innings win. On Saturday they made their comeback against Muñoz's backup, Carlos Vargas, but the extra-innings execution was not along for the ride, and the Twins were walked off on a ground ball by Cole Young, the Mariners rookie making his debut.
On Sunday, the Twins turned to Chris Paddack, who has been the best he has ever been in his seven-year career, despite a woeful six strikeouts per nine innings. Turning that piece of data on its head, Paddack struck out two in a nearly immaculate inning in the first, putting emphasis on his breaking stuff and making the M's look foolish.
Luis Castillo took the ball for Seattle, and has been a nearly elite pitcher for quite a while now. Early in his career, he featured an unhittable changeup. When he arrived in Seattle a few years ago, his changeup became far less prominent, as well as less effective—but his slider took off and became elite, still complementing a riding four-seam fastball in the upper 90s. Last year, some of his fastball characteristics backed up, and Seattle even explored trading him this offseason. This year, his slider hasn't been effective at all. All the while, though, his results have never been anything but great.
He looked it today, allowing lone baserunners in each of the first five innings but getting key strikeouts when he needed them, with both his changeup and slider looking plus-plus. He nearly hit Willi Castro with three separate sliders, all resulting in swinging strikes, and his fastball velocity sat 95-97 MPH. He would go on to complete six shutout innings.
Paddack cruised through the first three innings, but started to struggle the second time through the lineup. In the fourth. JP Crawford singled sharply to begin the frame and dear friend Jorge Polanco roped a line drive to the deepest part of center field that Harrison Bader tracked down for the first out. Julio Rodríguez walked, and Paddack then got all-world catcher Cal Raleigh to strike out swinging on a backup slider in the middle of the zone. Randy Arozarena then laced a fastball right back up the middle, but Kody Clemens made a good stab on it to retire the side.
He made an even better play in the fifth:
That allowed Paddack to remain efficient, and he only needed 72 pitches to complete his first six, scoreless innings. However, after an impressive strikeout of Rodríguez on a sharp slider to begin the seventh, Raleigh got his revenge and slaughtered a first-pitch curveball below the zone for a game-changing home run.
Paddack would stay on for the eighth. His velocity held up better than in some of his previous outings, hitting 96 MPH in the seventh and 95 MPH in the eighth. On his 103rd pitch, he struck out Ben Williamson on a filthy changeup. On his 104th pitch, he allowed a double to Crawford, but was allowed to stay on to face Polanco, whom he retired on a grounder to Correa. Is there a term for road loss complete game?
There would be no need to pin one down. Facing Muñoz in the 9th, Clemens drew a one-out walk, and Ty France grounded a ball through the five-hole for a single. A wild pitch advanced the runners, and Harrison Bader lifted a fly ball deep enough to score Clemens, giving Muñoz his second blown save of the year against the Twins. He also had one in 2023 thanks to Max Kepler, and in 2022 courtesy of Byron Buxton.
Some Griffin Jax Luck™ began the bottom half of the ninth, with Rodríguez bouncing a ball up the middle that Clemens couldn't make a play on. Jax managed to strike out the magma-hot Raleigh on a devastating sweeper. Rodríguez, who wasn't running in the Raleigh at-bat, did run with Arozarena at the plate, and Jeffers airmailed the throw, allowing Rodríguez to scamper to third. Arozarena made it a moot point, as he singled up the middle for a second straight walkoff Seattle win.
Stray Observations:
-Trevor Larnach seems to love hitting against Castillo. I remember the Twins facing the right-hander in 2023, while he was riding a hot stretch in which no one could touch him. Larnach hit a huge triple that opened the floodgates in a key Twins win. Today he was 2-for-3 against Castillo, and looked quite comfortable in each at-bat.
-Wallner looked pretty good, as well. He looked silly swinging a sword at a Castillo changeup in the first, but rebounded to draw a tough walk. He roped a 113-MPH single in his second at-bat, and nearly homered in his third.
-The Mariners look a lot different when their offense is being carried by a superstar. I didn't expect it would be Raleigh, who has been the equivalent of Ryan Jeffers with more slug and less contact thus far in his career. With him now the league leader in homers, pairing him with one of Rodríguez's customary summer hot streaks could make the Mariners legitimate contenders, given their elite pitching.
What’s Next: Joe Ryan (5-2, 2.57 ERA) opposes the A's big free-agent acquisition, Luis Severino (1-4, 3.89 ERA), as the Twins conclude their trip through two minor-league ballparks and Seattle with a set in Sacramento. Ryan looks to build on his All-Star case (just like around this time in 2022, 2023 and 2024), while Severino looks to end his team's current six-game losing streak.
Postgame Interviews:
Coming soon.
Bullpen Usage Chart:
| WED | THU | FRI | SAT | SUN | TOT | |
| Jax | 15 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 15 | 48 |
| Sands | 15 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 0 | 42 |
| Alcalá | 11 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 39 |
| Stewart | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 28 |
| Durán | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 27 |
| Funderburk | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Varland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18 |
| Topa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
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