What Led to Rocco Baldelli's Unusual Reliever Usage in Tuesday Night's Twins Loss?

[Matthew Lenz]

Image courtesy of Varland: © David Richard-Imagn Images Duran: © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Jax: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

After a hope-infusing series-opening win Monday night, the Twins lost in walkoff fashion in the second game of their four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday. After five solid innings from Chris Paddack, Rocco Baldelli used Brock Stewart in the sixth, then went with his two highest-leverage relievers in the seventh and eighth. Griffin Jax relieved Stewart, and was then relieved by Jhoan Duran. This led to Louis Varland getting his first ninth-inning opportunity of the season and his second career appearance in a high-leverage ninth frame. 

While it’s not usual for Jax to pitch in the seventh or Durán to pitch the eighth, it's usually under different circumstances. Jax is often the first high-leverage reliever out of the bullpen, whether that be in the seventh or eighth innings. However, there have also been games wherein he's been deployed after Duran, as the closer. So what made Tuesday’s game different?

Baldelli deployed four righties from the bullpen, so that mutes any discussion of a potential righty/lefty matchup dynamic. Jax was brought in to face the 6-7-8 hitters in the Guardians lineup, which is not a  lineup pocket that typically requires a high-leverage reliever. However, Jhonkensy Noel is a masher who has struggled with sinkers and sweepers early on in his career—two offerings that have been effective for Jax. The next two hitters, Daniel Schneeman and Bo Naylor, don't have obvious flaws that would point toward Jax getting the seventh. It's my opinion that Jax was specifically brought in to get the slugger Noel out in a tie game, when a moonshot would give the Guardians a lead. Having given up a double to Schneeman, Jax struck out Angel Martínez in the 9-hole, leaving the top of the order to lead off the eighth inning.

That makes it a lot easier to understand why Duran was brought in for the top of the eighth. The flamethrower made easy work of the would-be table setters, inducing a groundout and striking out two hitters on just 13 pitches. After a low-stress inning, you might have thought Baldelli would send him back out for the ninth. However, Duran has just two multi-inning relief appearances since June of 2023. Right or wrong, it's generally not something Baldelli has done with the 27-year-old. Heading into the ninth, Baldelli had five pitchers in the bullpen—though Justin Topa and Jorge Alcala may have been unavailable, given their workload in the days leading up to Tuesday. Still, beyond them, he had Varland, Danny Coulombe, and Cole Sands at his disposal to face the heart of the Guardians lineup: José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, and Carlos Santana.

What makes this portion of the lineup tough is that Manzardo, a left-handed hitter with non-traditional splits, is protected by switch-hitters in front of and behind him. Additionally, both Ramírez and Santana are productive hitters from both sides of the plate, making the handedness question moot. Manzardo’s success against southpaws in 33 career at-bats could maybe explain why Coulombe was left in the pen. That leaves us with Sands and Varland. While Sands arguably has the stronger track record as a reliever, to this point in the season, Varland has looked like the better pitcher—both on the surface and under the hood. 

Sands hasn’t quite found his 2024 self in the first month of 2025. Thus, by process of elimination, Varland got the ninth. However, that evades the real question: Why go Jax in the seventh, instead of Varland? This brings us back to Noel. While much of his swing decisions and batted-ball data leave more to be desired, there's no arguing his power potential. He’s currently in the 98th percentile in bat speed and well above average in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, opponents put the ball in the air against Varland nearly two-thirds of the time and he currently is one of the worst pitchers in the league in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Varland also doesn't have that lateral movement on his breaking ball that made Jax a good candidate to get out Noel.

Hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to criticize the move by Baldelli. The game ended when Manzardo took Varland deep, in a situation when one would normally find Jax or Duran on the mound. However, if my conjectures above are correct, I think this is a matter of a good process that led to bad results. That's more than can be said for Varland’s middle-middle changeup, which was launched 363 feet over the right-field fence.

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What are your thoughts on Baldelli’s bullpen usage on Tuesday night? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Karbo]

IMO that is over thinking by Rocco. I firmly believe that most players prefer a set role out of the pen. Closer, top setup, mid setup, long guy etc. But Rocco doesn't believe in doing it that way because his little stat sheet tells him so. For many many years teams have ( and many still do) set roles out of the pen. Of course the smartest guy in the room has a better way, even if it doesn't work.

[Mark G]

The pecking order would never had come to that if he hadn't pulled Paddock early.  Was it really a good process gone bad, or a process that didn't have to happen?  There was no hindsight when he pulled Paddock; he knew in that moment he was going to use at least 4 guys from the pen, and if Varland had gotten through, who was going to take the 10th?  Varland?  Or one of the guys he was trying not to use in the first place?  

It all began with the decision to pull Paddock when he didn't need to.  

[dxpavelka]

To answer you question, ANALYTICS.  Gardy, TK, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, et al would NEVER have made this move.  Have the 7th and 8th innings gotten more demanding over the last few decades, to the point that a manager needs to use his best guy in the 7th or 8th?  Not really.  Are today's manager's, with the aid of analytics smarter than the old time guys?  Hell no.  Were the old time guys smarter?  Not necessarily.  But they knew what worked for them and had done so for decades before them.  As one of those guys above one mentioned, "analytics is an excellent way of predicting the past."  Of course the game isn't played in the past.

[rv78]

In the Minnesota Twins loss on Tuesday, Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen usage was unusual, and a bit inscrutable. What, exactly, was he thinking?

The problem is, he doesn't think. Or at the very least, doesn't think ahead. A smart Manager would know that the heart of the order was coming up in the ninth inning and you save and use your BEST high leverage bullpen guy for that situation. Not the 3rd best or someone even less. 

It's as smart as putting Mickey Gasper in the leadoff spot. If analytics drive every decision he makes then Rocco needs to have analytics show him how often his analytics fail. Evidently losing ballgames due to them isn't enough of an indicator for him to notice. When you trust the process more than the results of the process, then you have failed. 

[Whitey333]

A typical issue with Baldelli is over-using analytics.  Way over thinking the game and not being able to  or willing to, make changes or adjustments to his "plan".  It sure has worked well.  The Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons and will likely miss again in 2025 as their 13-19 record shows.  Analytics has a place in the game but Baldelli and the Twins way over emphasize it in place of good old common sense.

[Aerodeliria]

Again, IMHO, the problem wasn't with Varland being called upon. The problem was that it didn't appear that Baldelli or Vasquez or both wanted him to throw his best pitch. If you don't want Varland to throw a fastball, don't bring him in. Three straight off-speed pitches. If the fastball gets knocked out of the park, you tip your hat, but don't scratch your head when the third consecutive off-speed pitch leaves the yard.

There's an ancient saying that still rings true. "Don't get beat with your second best pitch."

[old nurse]

How quickly people forget Jax has had a bit of a struggle this year

[Reptevia]

Rocco’s entire tenure has been supposedly “good process followed by bad results”. Kinda makes you question the value or accuracy of the underlying metrics. 

[Sjoski]

Rocco does not trust this eyes, players are plugged into models, and fans are left watching a sterile procession of walks, strikeouts, and home runs.

His game has no artistry or soul.

[Doctor Gast]

45 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

To answer you question, ANALYTICS.  Gardy, TK, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, et al would NEVER have made this move.  Have the 7th and 8th innings gotten more demanding over the last few decades, to the point that a manager needs to use his best guy in the 7th or 8th?  Not really.  Are today's manager's, with the aid of analytics smarter than the old time guys?  Hell no.  Were the old time guys smarter?  Not necessarily.  But they knew what worked for them and had done so for decades before them.  As one of those guys above one mentioned, "analytics is an excellent way of predicting the past."  Of course the game isn't played in the past.

Bingo!!!!!!! & analytics don't show present or past underlying conditions that need to be acknowledged when making pregame & in-game decisions. Much less viable gut feelings.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

To answer you question, ANALYTICS.  Gardy, TK, Billy Martin, Tony LaRussa, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, et al would NEVER have made this move.  Have the 7th and 8th innings gotten more demanding over the last few decades, to the point that a manager needs to use his best guy in the 7th or 8th?  Not really.  Are today's manager's, with the aid of analytics smarter than the old time guys?  Hell no.  Were the old time guys smarter?  Not necessarily.  But they knew what worked for them and had done so for decades before them.  As one of those guys above one mentioned, "analytics is an excellent way of predicting the past."  Of course the game isn't played in the past.

You do realize Tony LaRussa changed how bullpens were used, right? I mean they called it the "La Russaization" of baseball for goodness sake. He was known for bringing relievers in earlier in games than what the previous generation would have. He's literally the anti-example of what you're talking about.

Rocco isn't the only one who plays matchups instead of innings. The game changes. Why do people act like this is the first time it's ever changed and it's just unthinkable that it's changing? ANALYTICS have been used forever. Batting average is an analytic. The analytics have just gotten better as our ability to measure things have improved. The old time guys used to use analytics that told them to hit Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla types in the two hole. Do we really think they had it all figured out? (Edited to add that I concede that the analytics telling Rocco to hit Gasper leadoff the other day were nonsense, too, no matter what the roster is looking like these days)

That being said, with the depth we have at the back end of the pen I'd prefer that Rocco just puts Duran in a 9th inning role, Jax in the 8th, Sands in the 7th. But it's not outrageous to give them matchups. That is a defined role as well. Telling a guy he has a set chunk of the lineup to focus on and know the scouting report for is a role that allows them to prepare for the day and be ready to go for the game.

[Doctor Gast]

Management gets weird ideas, then they spin stats to support them. The players are told not to look at results and to trust the process. It is long overdue for ownership to look at the results & say the process isn't working & make changes. But Pohlads know nothing about baseball & are in love with Falvey, Falvey is in love with Baldelli & Baldelli is in love with Tingler, Conger & Watkins. So nothing gets done.

[Bodie]

Point - Jax has pitched himself out of "high leverage" innings and will have to earn those opportunities back.  Rocco has publicly said so, so quit acting like him getting lower presume situations to right himself is somehow a great mystery.   He's stunk individuality among this dumpster fire of a team.  No mystery, no "controversy" in that.

You want to debate who becomes the #2 in Jax's remedial tutorial, that is fair game.  But he isn't trusted by his manager (rightly so, right now), and until he regains it (or gets it back by default- i.e. injury in the bp) by pitching better, expect to see him against the bottom of the lineup, relatively early in the game. 

[chpettit19]

8 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Point - Jax has pitched himself out of "high leverage" innings and will have to earn those opportunities back.  Rocco has publicly said so, so quit acting like him getting lower presume situations to right himself is somehow a great mystery.   He's stunk individuality among this dumpster fire of a team.  No mystery, no "controversy" in that.

You want to debate who becomes the #2 in Jax's remedial tutorial, that is fair game.  But he isn't trusted by his manager (rightly so, right now), and until he regains it (or gets it back by default- i.e. injury in the bp) by pitching better, expect to see him against the bottom of the lineup, relatively early in the game. 

2-2 game in the bottom of the 8th against the 2-3-4 hitters is Rocco not trusting Jax? Or is that Jax "against the bottom of the lineup, relatively early in the game?" Are his 5 straight appearances with 5 innings, 3 hits allowed and 11 Ks the part where he's "rightly" not trusted? Sure looks like Rocco trusted him last night by putting him into an awfully high leverage situation against the heart of their order with the game on the line. Seems he may have earned his opportunity back.

[Bodie]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

2-2 game in the bottom of the 8th against the 2-3-4 hitters is Rocco not trusting Jax? Or is that Jax "against the bottom of the lineup, relatively early in the game?" Are his 5 straight appearances with 5 innings, 3 hits allowed and 11 Ks the part where he's "rightly" not trusted? Sure looks like Rocco trusted him last night by putting him into an awfully high leverage situation against the heart of their order with the game on the line. Seems he may have earned his opportunity back.

Ha,ha ha!

Must be nice to be so trusting...

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Bodie said:

Ha,ha ha!

Must be nice to be so trusting...

I didn't say anything about me trusting him. You claimed Rocco didn't trust him and would be using him "relatively early in games" and to face "the bottom of the lineup." I simply pointed out that yesterday he faced the 2-3-4 hitters in Cleveland's lineup in the 8th inning of a tie game. Oh, and he struck out 2. For the 5th game in a row, I'll add (1 of those games was 3 Ks even). 

I know those back-to-back blowup games were traumatizing, but Jax has 11 Ks in 5 innings since. He's struck out 61% of the batters he's faced since those blowup games. Just trying to provide some facts amongst the emotions.

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Aerodeliria said:

Again, IMHO, the problem wasn't with Varland being called upon. The problem was that it didn't appear that Baldelli or Vasquez or both wanted him to throw his best pitch. If you don't want Varland to throw a fastball, don't bring him in. Three straight off-speed pitches. If the fastball gets knocked out of the park, you tip your hat, but don't scratch your head when the third consecutive off-speed pitch leaves the yard.

There's an ancient saying that still rings true. "Don't get beat with your second best pitch."

I agree with that saying.

A corollary would be "Don't get beat without using your best guy." If you throw Varland in the seventh and he fails, you've deprived yourself of the opportunity to use Jax and Duran in the roles they have often played, maintaining a lead in the 8th and 9th. 

A critique of Rocco is that he doesn't go for the jugular. In effect, that's what he was doing to the Cleveland offense, saying, "You can't score in six? Well, let me stuff your offense in a deeper hole by giving you Jax and Duran next."

Said another way, offensively, if there's an opportunity to score in the seventh or eighth and a manager doesn't pinch hit his stud for Kody Clemens because he wants to the save his stud for a possibility in the ninth, the manager gets chastised with, "You gotta use him now -- there may not BE an opportunity in the ninth." This is essentially what he did on the pitching side, saying, "I gotta use Duran in the eighth, because otherwise there might not BE a ninth." 

The Jax/Duran part of the strategy worked. The part that didn't work was the offense getting any runs to make it an easier job for Varland in the ninth. 

[Linus]

How about the real problem?  They scored two runs. The pitching did its job the hitters didn’t. 

[IndianaTwin]

@Matthew Lenz, I appreciate the attempt to try deciphering a logic behind those decisions. I haven't always agreed with you when you've done that, but I think it's a better approach than saying, "There is no logic."

In this case, I follow along with the Jax and Duran decisions. I wonder if there is an additional component to the Varland/Coulombe/Sands decision. I don't know how Rocco sees them, but if he viewed them as more or less equal for the ninth, the next thing is, "We're playing to get to the 10th. All three of these have similar chances of getting me there. If they do, which one do I want available for the 10th, when I have to deal with Manfred Man rules? Which one will be best with a runner on base?" For me, out of those three, my first choice is Coulombe and my second choice (if needed in the 11th) is Sands.

I also preface all of these discussions with "There's stuff we don't know." For all we know, Coulombe or Sands was nicked up a bit and weren't actually available. And to anticipate a question, I don't think Rocco owes it to us to announce that in the postgame presser. There are strategic reasons to keep that stuff under your hat. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

A typical issue with Baldelli is over-using analytics.  Way over thinking the game and not being able to  or willing to, make changes or adjustments to his "plan".  It sure has worked well.  The Twins have missed the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons and will likely miss again in 2025 as their 13-19 record shows.  Analytics has a place in the game but Baldelli and the Twins way over emphasize it in place of good old common sense.

Actually, isn't using Duran in the eighth an adjustment to the regimented "plan" that has him only used in the ninth when you are up by one, two or three runs?

[mikelink45]

It still comes back to having a pitcher who is going well pitch further into the game.  Paddack could have gone another inning or two or at least try.  This has been the story all year.  

This was game 32 - Varland's 16th appearance! 

[mluebker]

Sometimes you want a manager to manage with his guts and instincts, not a spreadsheet. Unfortunately, Baldelli’s instinct is always to go with the spreadsheet.

[terrydactyls]

If metrics is the way of the future, why not get rid of the "manager" position and just install a computer monitor with direct access to a Cray computer?  (By the way, do they still exist?).  Rightly or wrongly, I miss the days when a manager would look at the on-field situation and make a decision based on his feel for the game.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The old time guys used to use analytics that told them to hit Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla types in the two hole. Do we really think they had it all figured out?

The new wizards use analytics that tell them to hit players like Mickey Gasper and Joey Gallo leadoff.  Do you really think they've got it figured out now?

[Woof Bronzer]

I think this is a matter of a good process that led to bad results. 

Serious question for the poster:  how much more losing - bad results - would cause you to consider that maybe, just maybe, it's actually the process that's bad?  It's just shocking to me that we are on our way to miss the playoffs in the joke AL Central for the 4th time in 5 years and we've still got people saying "the process is good!"  

[jorgenswest]

I thought their best chance to win was to pitch Duran in the 8th, score a run in the 9th and then bring back Duran for the bottom in the 9th. Duran did his part and kept the pitch count low enough to come back out. Like so many times this series, they didn’t score that run. They did get a runner on and then got caught stealing which was the first caught stealing in Clase’s career.

[KBJ1]

Paddack's last two games have arguably been his best as a Twin. While I can see using a certain pitcher against a hitter with tendencies (Jax against Johnkey) it comes down to two things that analytics just can't account for: go with the  hot hand" & save your best for last.

Paddack should have stayed in that game and Duran the 9th. If you give up a run in the 6th, you still have 3 more innings. If you give up a run in the 9th, the game is over.

What's sad is this that  anemic offense is led by the two last minute, plug the holes guys they picked up. (Bader & France) Nice as that is, the so called  core is rotten and sadly always hurt. The pitching so far has been solid, the offense is a joke.

 

[hitterscount]

I like Rocco, the heartwarming story on the child cancer patient and Rocco having him at the ball park was awesome.....

However, whether it's BP usage, pulling SP early, leading off with M. Gasper, w/l record in 1 run and extra inning games would suggest it's time to move on. The end of last season and the start of the 25 season just validates how bad things are. 

So the game Tuesday night is irrelevant, it's just Rocco being himself... a below average major league manager

[TopGunn#22]

Aside from consistently sloppy play in the field, how Rocco handles his bullpen has been one of my primary disappointments in him.  

I've stated many times here on TD and many others have as well.  Bullpens operate the best when guys have clearly defined roles.  Mariano Rivera, once he was the Yanks closer, never came into a game in the 7th inning.  Never.  The only time Rivera came into the game was to close it.

The same could be said for Joe Nathan, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Rollie Fingers and on and on and on.

Earl Weaver had great bullpens in his days as Orioles manager.  And often times he didn't have a PRIMARY closer.  It could be Eddie Watt or Pete Riechart, maybe even Grant Jackson or Dick Hall.  But he had clearly defined roles for his guys.  Maybe Earl had it easier because Palmer, Cuellar, McNally etc...usually went 7 innings, often longer, but his guys still had clearly defined roles.  Rocco has never seen the logic in doing that. 

And so this leads us to the big question about Rocco...if he remains as Twins manager this entire season, none of us here can envision a major turn-around by this team.  It's "possible" but actually quite unlikely.  So if Rocco were replaced as manager, who would it be? 

Would we set a batting order and generally stick to it, (Tovar, Carew, Oliva, Killebrew...)or would we continually be moving guys around in the day-to-day lineup?  Would the team begin hitting better?  Would they become better situational hitters...aka runners and 2nd and 3rd and nobody out...would we score more often than we have with Rocco?

Certainly if someone other than Tommy Watkins were coaching 3B we wouldn't be sending our runner from 3rd with the infield in on the "contact play" with nobody out...would we??  Would the new manager have defined roles for his bullpen?  Would pitchers have a clue how to hold runners on??  

The 7th inning Wednesday was a master-class on why Christian Vasquez is vital to this ballclub.  Ryan Jeffers is a below average catcher defensively.  He couldn't pull the ball out of his glove on one stolen base attempt, and then he drilled a crouching Brock Stewart with a low throw that had it missed Stewart, night have bounced 4 times before it reached 2B.  Later, a ball that was scored a wild pitch but that is effectively blocked about 75% of the time got by Jeffers allowing runners to move up a base.  Four runs later a scoreless game was effectively a Cleveland win.  

Would moving on from Rocco help this team snap out of it's doldrums?  Or are the Pohlad's just going to ride this disaster of a season out and hope someone is foolish enough to pay half a billion over market price?