Twins 11, Guardians 1: Opening Salvo

[Nick Nelson]

The Cleveland Guardians owned the Twins from start to finish in 2024. This time around, Minnesota has set a very different tone — hopefully one that portends a shift in the AL Central power dynamic.
 

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober — 7.1 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB (92 pitches, 67 strikes, 73%)
Home Runs: Edouard Julien (2), Ryan Jeffers (1)
Top 3 WPA: Ober (.164), Julien (.131), Byron Buxton (.069)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Coming off their most successful week of the season, a 5-1 home stand against the White Sox and Angels, the Twins headed into Cleveland with a clear mandate: prove you can translate the improved performance to more legitimate competition. So far, so great. Minnesota came out of the gates in this four-game series with their best performance of the season, jumping to a big early lead and adding on relentlessly on the way to a blowout victory.

The Twins set the tone immediately, with Edouard Julien swinging at the first pitch he saw from Cleveland starter Gavin Williams and launching it over the center field wall for his second home run of the season. Minnesota added another run in the inning on a double from Ryan Jeffers, scoring Carlos Correa, but Ty France was thrown out at home (by a longshot) to end the inning.

The Twins lineup got right back after it in the second inning, loading the bases for Byron Buxton who flared a liner past second baseman Gabriel Arias, scoring two more runs and pushing the lead to 4-0. Missing Andrés Giménez, Guards fans?

The top of the fifth brought another crooked number from the Minnesota offense, with Jonah Bride and Harrison Bader each delivering RBI singles from the bottom of the order. For Bride it was part of a three-hit night, nearly matching his total in 12 games with the Marlins before they cut him. The 29-year-old is now 7-for-14 since joining the Twins and is looking like a nifty little pickup.

The runs kept pouring on in the sixth as Minnesota tallied three more, including two on a Ty France double. By this point the Twins had already healthily surpassed their highest run total from last year's 13 matchups against Cleveland (6). They finished with 11, the most runs scored against the Guardians since the infamous Lucas Giolito game in September of 2023. Tone-setter, indeed.

While Bailey Ober surely appreciated all that run support, he didn't need it. The right-hander was dialed and in control, peppering the strike zone with efficiency and inducing an endless string of ground balls. Ober didn't miss a ton of bats but didn't need to, as he let Guardians hitters get themselves out on the way to 7 ⅔ innings of one-run ball. 

Not only did Cleveland drop the series opener, their fourth loss in five games, but the drain on their pitching staff also threatens to create headaches for Stephen Vogt in the remainder of the series. Their staff was already somewhat gassed coming into this one, after the Guardians played a double-header on Saturday and got just 4 ⅓ innings from Logan Allen in a blowout loss on Sunday. This was kinda the last thing they needed.

Williams lasted only two innings after the Twins got to him early, and then in the fifth, Paul Sewald had to exit abruptly due to an injury, signaling to the dugout after throwing his 15th pitch. Sewald was a relatively big-splash acquisition for the Guards during the offseason (much to my puzzlement), and they're likely going to be without him for a while. Initial word from Cleveland is that the veteran reliever has right shoulder inflammation. 

The circumstances pushed Vogt and the Guardians to put a position-player on the mound in the eighth inning. Even after getting two innings out of infielder Will Wilson, they're going to be pressed to get through the next three games with a thinned-out relief corps. Rocco Baldelli and the Twins have no such concerns coming off deep starts from both Ober and Joe Ryan (the first back-to-back 7+ inning starts for MN since last June), with all of their high-leverage arms completely fresh heading into Tuesday.

What's Next: The Twins will be countering Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee with Chris Paddack in another 5:10 PM CT start. It sounds like a lopsided matchup favoring the Guards, and it probably is, but Paddack has looked solid since his season-opening clunker against Chicago (3.32 ERA in four starts) and Bibee's been struggling, with 14 walks and a league-leading eight homers allowed in 26 innings. If the Twins can win this one they'll be within two games of .500, and just 1 ½ games behind Cleveland in the AL Central standings.

Postgame Interviews:

 

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TOT
Topa	0	15	0	27	0	42
Alcalá	41	0	0	0	19	60
Varland	0	20	19	0	0	39
Jax	0	0	19	0	0	19
Sands	0	13	0	0	0	13
Stewart	0	0	6	0	0	6
Coulombe	0	12	0	0	0	12
Durán	0	0	7	0	0	7

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[FlyingFinn]

With the bullpen so rested, the Twins recipe will be 5 solid innings from Paddack, a quick hook, and then our four best relievers for the win.

[Jocko87]

I'm guessing we won't be seeing Sewald for quite a while. Inflammation is probably only one of his symptoms right now.

There has to be something to a guy like Bride, fighting for an actual career, shocking the system a bit. If the DFA guy can hit, why can't we?

This is setting up too well, I'm suspicious.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

This is setting up too well, I'm suspicious.

Given the club's recent history, we all should be suspicious and cynical. 

[Blyleven2011]

17 hits , great to see the bats swinging , the batters hit to opposite field tonight and the past few games going opposite field seems to be working , it's starting to look like piranha baseball  ...

Keep hitting to all fields and just maybe they can clean up this horrible mess they started the season with ...

Ober went 7 plus innings  , his velocity seems lower than last year,  he pitched a great game of junk ball though ...

Clemens makes twins debut and laces a double , good start , bride has been hitting since he arrived and defense looks good  ...

[jkcarew]

Great win all the way around.

I’ll reserve judgement on what it means. The Twins MO (against anyone half decent) seems to be…occasionally dominate a game, then lose the next two 3-2 and 2-1. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s MO is the exact opposite.

Let’s see if some trends can change here.

[dxpavelka]

Nice turn (actually turn plus-seven games if you can hold your nose a little bit at Paddack's last start) thru the rotation.

[JD-TWINS]

5 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

17 hits , great to see the bats swinging , the batters hit to opposite field tonight and the past few games going opposite field seems to be working , it's starting to look like piranha baseball  ...

Keep hitting to all fields and just maybe they can clean up this horrible mess they started the season with ...

Ober went 7 plus innings  , his velocity seems lower than last year,  he pitched a great game of junk ball though ...

Clemens makes twins debut and laces a double , good start , bride has been hitting since he arrived and defense looks good  ...

So do not have anything against Clemons but the asterisk is pretty big next to his double …… position player throwing 50/55 mph  in mop up duty…….. he will be the first guy gone. 

[JD-TWINS]

Bride - seems the Marlins really messed up! I don’t think the guy is hunting MVP just because he’s 7-14 with the Twins but he hit .276 last year in 232 AB’s - 11 HR - 122 OPS+. Sure seems the Marlins should have given him a longer runway. …….. maybe he’s seen enough of S. Florida and went in the tank to get released?? Just kidding but he’s a pretty good “scrap heap” pick up by the FO!! He might force Castro into primarily an OF role?

Bride - Lewis - CC - Lee - Julien - France

Larnach - Bader - Buxton - Wallner - Castro

Anybody hear anything about Wallner or Castro’s health? I assume Lewis will be back by 5/5/25?

[Nashvilletwin]

I actually think Buxton’s catch last week to save game 1 vs. the White Sox not only saved Rocco’s job, but also may have saved the Twins’ season as well.

That catch really feels like a huge turning point.

 

[Danchat]

The bats were going to eventually get hot. And with the starting pitching playing up to our expectations, they're going to win some games. Just gotta hope we stay as healthy as possible.

[Parfigliano]

40 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Given the club's recent history, we all should be suspicious and cynical. 

Baby steps but in the right direction.

[Vanimal46]

The results are in from the brightest minds at MIT, Cambridge, and Harvard. Winning is better than losing in a competitive activity. 

[LastOnePicked]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Winning is better than losing in a competitive activity.

If Rocco can come to believe this, the team might be alright.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Anybody hear anything about Wallner or Castro’s health? I assume Lewis will be back by 5/5/25?

Check the Twins/MLB app

Keaschall out 2 months (60 Day IL if they need a spot). Wallner out at least 3 more weeks. Castro about a week. Lewis back for the Orioles series.

[DJL44]

Quote

For Bride it was part of a three-hit night, nearly matching his total in 12 games with the Marlins before they cut him. The 29-year-old is now 7-for-14 since joining the Twins and is looking like a nifty little pickup.

On the radio broadcast they mentioned that Bride was eager to have MN help tweak his swing. It seems to have paid off..

[Aggies7]

Rare to see that much green in the bullpen chart 👍🏽 

[Joe A. Preusser]

Competition suspect, but 6 of 7 could potentially save the season.  Couple that with the next two against a depleted Guards bullpen, and this feels worlds different than 10 days ago.  

Get the taste of blood in your mouth and go savage them.

No, that doesn't feel right for Rocco teams.  They are more...urbane?  But they can still win a bunch of.games.

[Bodie]

7 minutes ago, Joe A. Preusser said:

Competition suspect, but 6 of 7 could potentially save the season.  Couple that with the next two against a depleted Guards bullpen, and this feels worlds different than 10 days ago.  

Get the taste of blood in your mouth and go savage them.

No, that doesn't feel right for Rocco teams.  They are more...urbane?  But they can still win a bunch of.games.

"Urbabe" is unbelievably kind... but a pro athlete's natural competiveness will (occasionally) shine through of even the most heartless bunch. 

Maybe, there'll emerge a leadership clique on this team that believes that a bit of effort is more than made up for in the sweet taste of victory.  And then lead the rest along!

[DocBauer]

I may be an eternal optiimist, but I'm not going to blow smoke either.

We took 2 of 3 from the Dirty Sox, but we didn't look great doing it. But the home town team seemed to be clicking much better overall against the Angels. Julien has looked much better. Correa's bat is apparently not dead yet. Larnach is getting hot again. Lee has been contributing defensively as well as offensively, even if it's in a quiet way. Is Jeffers getting hot? France is nothing special, but he's been solid.

We really miss Wallner! But Lewis should be back soon. He makes a difference. And a healthy Castro AT LEAST gives the team legitimate options besides playing DFA guys brought in to fill in.

But I do agree that the Bride who played in 2024 was actually a decent ballplayer. Considering the mess that the Marlins are, maybe we got a guy who's not a bad 13th man bench option? 

Part of me wonders if the great catches by Buxton and Bader and the SUPER debut by Keaschall haven't provided a wakeup call to everyone?

The offense isn't where it needs to be, and should be, and could be, partially due to missing pieces.

The rotation is doing its job. The pen has largely done its job despite some blow ups. This team is starting to remind me of 2023 when they started slowly, got to .500, but didn't CROSS THE LINE until after the All Star break where the offense suddenly matched the staff. Part of that surge was Lewis, Wallner, and Julien. Well. Lewis is back soon, Wallner by the end of May, Julien is much better, and Keaschall back by July? Maybe Rodriguez gets in a groove and helps as well?

The staff has to carry the load, but they can if the offense actually maintains decent production until everyone is back. They have a winning record when they score 4 or more runs. That's not a large benchmark to overcome. 

I'd be extatict if they could come home with a 4-3 record on this road trip. Its only ONE win, but it's a start.

[Joe A. Preusser]

3 minutes ago, Bodie said:

"Urbabe" is unbelievably kind... but a pro athlete's natural competiveness will (occasionally) shine through of even the most heartless bunch. 

Maybe, there'll emerge a leadership clique on this team that believes that a bit of effort is more than made up for in the sweet taste of victory.  And then lead the rest along!

I'm a kind person.  I want to (and do, mostly) see the bright side of things.  I hate managers (or any leaders) who masquerade as drill sergeants.  I wish our Twins were tough as nails and chewed glass.  I also want them to be happy and healthy, have a good work life balance, and win 105 games this year.  I'm not sure all of that is compatible.  I do believe that max effort is the best winning medicine.  

[RpR]

[RpR]

I just found that this the the second stomping in a row for Cleveland; if they have a version of Twins Daily I would guess they are full whine mode.

[D.C Twins]

OK....now THAT win means something.

Buck+Correa+Ober allowed 100 pitches to keep bullpen fresh!!!

A Chef's kiss indeed. 

[Dman]

Cleveland's Williams has been bad the last three times out. Wondering if there is something wrong with his arm?  Nice to see hits with runners in scoring position.  We'll see what tomorrow brings but I am really struggling to follow this team.

[knothole61]

3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

17 hits , great to see the bats swinging , the batters hit to opposite field tonight and the past few games going opposite field seems to be working , it's starting to look like piranha baseball  ...

Keep hitting to all fields and just maybe they can clean up this horrible mess they started the season with ...

Ober went 7 plus innings  , his velocity seems lower than last year,  he pitched a great game of junk ball though ...

Clemens makes twins debut and laces a double , good start , bride has been hitting since he arrived and defense looks good  ...

Bly, I'll bet that you could have popped at least a single off of the Eephus pitch that Clemens turned on! But, yeah, he did hit it well...

[knothole61]

Great win...it could set a solid tone for this important road trip.

This is off topic, so I'll try to keep it short: I hate the ads projected on the back of the mound that match the ads projected on the low walls in back of the batter. I resent them for many reasons, but I'm troubled by anything that alters reality even for something as mundane as selling dog food. And then one is left to wonder where it all ends. Could someone buy the rights to the Zapruder film and project an ad for Dr. Pepper or maybe Nike on the trunk lid? I can hear that young advertising whiz at the meeting declaring: "Let them try to ignore that!"

Oh well...  

[UK Twin]

5 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

I actually think Buxton’s catch last week to save game 1 vs. the White Sox not only saved Rocco’s job, but also may have saved the Twins’ season as well.

That catch really feels like a huge turning point.

 

Definitely the sort of moment that gives everyone a huge lift. Whisper it quietly but Buck seems to be in a really good place right now.

[UK Twin]

Only 2 K's for Ober but who cares! Very efficient start and another game where only one bullpen arm was used. I actually like the fact that Lopez now slots between Paddack and SWR in the rotation - Lopez will go 6+ virtually every start so bullpen won't have to pitch 4 innings in back to back games.

Twins now have a positive run differential (only the Tigers join them in the AL Central with that stat) and their expected record is 15-14. Clearly things are looking up - loving that hits are coming from everyone not just a few players.

Correa looks like he's figured things out at the plate and France looks a steal right now. On pace for over 90 RBI's. If he keeps driving in runs at that pace that $1mill deal is incredible value. If I'm being picky would like a little more power but I'm loving his approach at the plate.

[Karbo]

I guess this team just doesn't play well in bad or cold weather.