Unfortunately, This Minnesota Twins Offense Isn't Just Off to a Slow Start

[Matthew Lenz]

The Minnesota Twins offense has been a bottom-five offense to start the season. Bottom line: it's been brutal. However, if you were expecting anything different, you might have been kidding yourself. (Don't worry; I'm guilty, too.)

Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images

Entering Sunday’s game, Twins batters were 27th in OPS, 28th in walk rate, and 25th in Win Probability Added (WPA) among the 30 MLB teams. Ironically, after years and years of gripes from a large portion of the fan base, their strikeout rate of 22.7% ranks a respectable 16th. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said when runners are in scoring position. In those situations, the Twins' strikeout rate jumps to 24.6% (fifth-highest in baseball) and their walk rate drops to 6.3% (second-lowest in baseball), although their OPS is actually 54 points higher.

The greatest source of concern, though, is their quality of contact. While they have hit the ball hard and are an extreme pull-hitting team, they currently have the 10th-highest groundball rate in the league. Data shows that the most productive batted balls are hit in the air to the batter’s pull side. Since 2021, the difference between pulling the ball on the ground versus in the air is roughly a peak Barry Bonds worth of OPS (1.780 versus .401). Just putting the ball in play against a professional defense to “see what happens” rarely gets the job done.

Looking back to last season, it was easy to write off the last month and a half to a team-wide, contagious slump. Surely, a team that was on a 92-win pace through 124 games just needed the offseason to reset after a historic collapse, right? Alas, that “slump” has carried over into the 2025 season and since the start of that collapse, the team is on a 50-win pace over 60 games. 

I'm here to tell you this isn't a slump; it's who they are. While they profiled differently last year by pulling the ball in the air more, they finished the season near the bottom third of teams in OPS and wRC+ with runners in scoring position. Removing that split from the equation, the team was in the top third of teams in the same categories. The difference can also be seen in their WPA. While they finished ninth in WPA in 2024, their Clutch rating of -1.27 indicates that they would have been even better—perhaps far better—had they hit as well when the chips were down as they did in lower-leverage situations.

Not only has that carried over into 2025, but their ineptitude has been exacerbated by a diminished quality of contact regardless of the situation. That's all to say, the Twins failed to have productive at-bats when it mattered most. However, it's not an issue that is unique to having runners in scoring position.

As is the case in most sports, the general goal is to be roughly .500 against the “good” teams and take care of business against the “bad” teams. The Twins were very good at the latter last season, but not so much the former. In fact, the Twins offense (once again) didn't show up when it mattered most in 2024. Against playoff teams, they not only performed below their season averages, but also performed worse than the league average in nearly all statistical categories. While their offense as a whole performed well, they failed to execute in the season’s biggest moments.

While we focused tightly on the last 39 games of 2024, we’re seeing in 2025 that that might be misguided. The Twins offense isn't off to a slow start. This is who they have been. This is who they are.

View full article

[Fatbat]

Its understandable that we are much better against bad teams but the talent is there to be a star powered offense. They need a sports physiologist n the locker room or a kick is the pants. 

[Doctor Wu]

The Minnesota Twins offense has been a bottom-five offense to start the season. Bottom line: it's been brutal. However, if you were expecting anything different, you might have been kidding yourself. (Don't worry; I'm guilty, too.)

Brutal is the word. I also expected a lot more (okay, maybe a wee bit more) in the way of offensive production from this team. Sure, it's still early days, but the signs are not encouraging. We can't blame everything on cold weather or the lack of torpedo bats. 

[JD-TWINS]

4 guys with OBP over .300 & 3 of the 4 are barely over .300. Only Wallner is impressive at .374 OBP. That’s “brutal”.

Wallner & Lewis & “something” from Correa are all needed to make the offense respectable………..after 14 PA’s Keaschall has 4 hits & a walk. Brief, but encouraging. Buxton is warming but still all over the place from a consistency standpoint.

Lee does not look like a MLB hitter ……. not good with his expectations. Julien is spotty, to say the least. Keaschall may anchor 2B soon with Lewis at 3B. These moves help offense on paper going forward.

Larnach is going to be difficult to roster for more than another couple weeks with this level of production. He’s really disappointing after his ‘24.

Bader & France have been decent to good at times………with a bunch of AB’s they may actually decline going forward.

Not good picture.

[Patzky]

25 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Its understandable that we are much better against bad teams but the talent is there to be a star powered offense. They need a sports physiologist n the locker room or a kick is the pants. 

Are we sure about this (talent).

[Doctor Wu]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bader & France have been decent to good at times………with a bunch of AB’s they may actually decline going forward.

That is most likely what will  happen, but it would be very nice if those two can stay somewhat productive. Plus, Bader's glove in left field has been terrific. And we can't forget young Luke. Looking good so far. 

[Dawgzilla]

Brutal is summation!  Team has zero "fire"/excitement level!  Name a player that is "much watch"?   I'm waiting!  Buxton would be the closest, but he is still not that.

 

Lastly, where are the player+s) that most teams have come up that are young and explosive (outside Lewis...who is always hurt)?  Again, I'm waiting!!  By the time they bring a "stud" (cough) up he qualifies for Medicare!

[mikelink45]

The reflection on team play is also a reflection on the management - all the coaches.   When I asked how many coaches the Twins have good old Google AI says, "

The Minnesota Twins have 12 major league coaches for the 2025 season. This includes the manager, 3 hitting coaches, a bench coach, a third base/outfield coach, a first base/infield coach, an assistant bench coach/catching coach, a quality control coach, a pitching coach, an assistant pitching coach, and a bullpen coach. "

 

While I am not a fan of Rocco I have seen a lot of lousy coaches (I think of Fred Haney and the 1957 - 58 Milwaukee Braves) who still win.  And they did not have bench coaches assistant to the assistant hitting coaches, OF coaches, IF coaches, assistant pitching coaches and QUALITY CONTROL COACHES.  

What do this coaches do?  Please do not replace Rocco with one of them.  What is the Quality that is being controlled?  Who is doing all the stat analysis?  Does the pitching coach ever say - let's give him another inning or two (or maybe his assistant does)?  

So glad we keep getting new hitting coaches - wow three of them.  And thanks to their combined efforts our line for the team (B/R)

211/282/338 621 OPS 16 HRs -

so each one is responsible for .070 of BA and 207 OPS 

Looking at BR team stats we have lowest field average since 1981 - guess those OF/IF coaches are earning their money too. 

 

At least the bench hasn't collapsed so I guess the Bench Coach is holding his own.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

IMO, the twins have 5 players that are really above replacement level, CC, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Jeffers. Three of the 5 are generally hurt, one is very streaky and the other prior to this year was only allowed to face opposite pitchers and got hurt this year. Is it a surprise they started out this slow, not really, would it be a surprise if a few of the replacement levels players got and and the Twins go out and win say  8 of 12 at some point, not really. Can they do it long enough to hold off the other teams in the division, not likely

[MinnInPa]

this team has no clue in situational baseball.. so many times ..1st two guys on ..3rd batter takes called strike 3 right down the pike.....rally killer !! Julien has to be sent down ...for good ...just takes way too many pitches right down the heart of the plate..as do others. Reality..this is just not a good hitting baseball...and any down in minors that can help soon ?? i'd say no team..Keashall can ..but other than that ..there's no one lighting it up down there.. bunch of guys that cant even hit .270 in minors arent gonna come up here and help in the bigs. they would just become more .225 hitters that K over 30% of the time. maybe in 3-4 the crop of hitters at A/AA can become stars.."we need a hero" i just think we're in for a loooooong wait

[twinzcynic]

Your tweet is dead on. Anyone paying attention last year would've noticed that if it wasn't for an early 9-game stretch against the Chisox and Angels, the start of the season would have looked way different. 

[Mahoning]

There just isn't a single professional hitter in the lineup. If they should have, say, runners at second and third and less than two out, and you ask yourself, "Whom do I want at the plate?" does any name come up? No? Exactly.

[Patzky]

Orioles are floundering badly and have no pitching. Let us put our minds together..

[DJL44]

I thought people here would be thrilled. All last year I heard posters loudly saying the team needed to reduce their strikeouts and stop trying to hit home runs. They've been very successful, reducing strikeouts below league average. Their home runs are now in the bottom 5 teams in baseball. According to Twins Daily posters this should have unleashed their full offensive potential.

[Fatbat]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

Are we sure about this (talent).

Not at this point but we do have 4 former allstars in the daily lineup that age wise, are in their prime. Someone needs to step up!

[terrydactyls]

There is one quick fix that will eliminate all of the negative statistical results detailed above.  Get the stat nerds to create new, wonderful, bigly advanced metric that twist all the negatives into positives.  They can call it RMA+ (Reverse Metric Analysis Plus - I have no idea what the "+" means but I see it a lot so it must be meaningful).

[Patzky]

14 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I thought people here would be thrilled. All last year I heard posters loudly saying the team needed to reduce their strikeouts and stop trying to hit home runs. They've been very successful, reducing strikeouts below league average. Their home runs are now in the bottom 5 teams in baseball. According to Twins Daily posters this should have unleashed their full offensive potential.

The devil you know 

[terrydactyls]

1 hour ago, Dawgzilla said:

Brutal is summation!  Team has zero "fire"/excitement level!  Name a player that is "much watch"?   I'm waiting!  Buxton would be the closest, but he is still not that.

I sort of concur.  I would fully agree with you if you had said "must watch" instead of "much watch".

[GNXman]

Twins hitters continue to be clueless. What are they teaching them in the minors??? All these high draft picks they "achieved" these last several years are either busts, or poor picks to begin with. Not sure new ownership is the answer here, but right now this franchise is sinking out of sight. And that is sad. As a long time Twins fan, I am finding myself to just not care anyore. Thats alarming.

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bader & France have been decent to good at times………with a bunch of AB’s they may actually decline going forward.

Not good picture.

France has already begun his decline, something like 1 for his last 20....

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

4 guys with OBP over .300 & 3 of the 4 are barely over .300. Only Wallner is impressive at .374 OBP. That’s “brutal”.

Wallner & Lewis & “something” from Correa are all needed to make the offense respectable………..after 14 PA’s Keaschall has 4 hits & a walk. Brief, but encouraging. Buxton is warming but still all over the place from a consistency standpoint.

Lee does not look like a MLB hitter ……. not good with his expectations. Julien is spotty, to say the least. Keaschall may anchor 2B soon with Lewis at 3B. These moves help offense on paper going forward.

Larnach is going to be difficult to roster for more than another couple weeks with this level of production. He’s really disappointing after his ‘24.

Bader & France have been decent to good at times………with a bunch of AB’s they may actually decline going forward.

Not good picture.

Well written article. I know I've been saying this could be a fact all season but now it's borne out - this is a team missing a #2, #3, and #4 hitter. What we have is 4 types of hitters. The First 3 are (1) a few complimentary type guys who could hit #5- #7 on a contending team in Buxton, Correa, Jeffers and maybe even France, (2) "young" guys who need to hit 6-9 as they develop (if they develop) in Larnach, Julien, Lee, and Keirsey, and  (3) guys who are what they are and it ain't that great in Bader, Vasquez, and Castro - all bottom third hitters. What's left? Very inexperienced guys who MIGHT someday be middle of the order bats in Wallner, Lewis, and Keaschall. That's it. That's what we got. To make things even worse, there is no one at AAA who is tearing it up and requires a promotion and that includes Emma, McCusker, Miranda and Martin (last 2 are hurt to be fair). There is no cavalry riding over the hill.

There really isn't much we can do here. Play Keaschall pretty much every day, same for Wallner and Lewis when they get back. Hope Buxton stays hot and that Larnach and Julien find enough to at least be serviceable.  The bottom line is that this is a bottom half, probably bottom third, offense and it's like to stay there unless Keascahll, Lewis, and Wallner all hit and hit big.  The odds here are not great. 

[In My La Z boy]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The reflection on team play is also a reflection on the management - all the coaches.   When I asked how many coaches the Twins have good old Google AI says, "

The Minnesota Twins have 12 major league coaches for the 2025 season. This includes the manager, 3 hitting coaches, a bench coach, a third base/outfield coach, a first base/infield coach, an assistant bench coach/catching coach, a quality control coach, a pitching coach, an assistant pitching coach, and a bullpen coach. "

 

While I am not a fan of Rocco I have seen a lot of lousy coaches (I think of Fred Haney and the 1957 - 58 Milwaukee Braves) who still win.  And they did not have bench coaches assistant to the assistant hitting coaches, OF coaches, IF coaches, assistant pitching coaches and QUALITY CONTROL COACHES.  

What do this coaches do?  Please do not replace Rocco with one of them.  What is the Quality that is being controlled?  Who is doing all the stat analysis?  Does the pitching coach ever say - let's give him another inning or two (or maybe his assistant does)?  

So glad we keep getting new hitting coaches - wow three of them.  And thanks to their combined efforts our line for the team (B/R)

211/282/338 621 OPS 16 HRs -

so each one is responsible for .070 of BA and 207 OPS 

Looking at BR team stats we have lowest field average since 1981 - guess those OF/IF coaches are earning their money too. 

 

At least the bench hasn't collapsed so I guess the Bench Coach is holding his own.

 

Wow! Loved this!
I was just checking in to see if we fired anyone. This team needs leadership. Our 5 leaders are not getting the job done. In descending order 1) Pohlad 2) Falvey 3) Baldelli 4) Buxton 5) Correa
Which one can we fire? Is anyone ever going to held accountable? We must be the worst team in baseball these last 50 games? Do we play another 50 as is? Probably. Dammit Pohlad. He can't even sell the team properly.

[Road trip]

It's a pretty bad lineup, not much more to say.  The likely best hitters (Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Wallner and Jeffers) are all essentially part-time players due to inevitable injuries (first 3), "won't let him hit lefties", and catchers needing regular days off.

Add in the fact that only Buxton, Correa, and Bader are plus defenders and you get a team that is going to lose 85 games unless the pitchers perform very well.

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, the twins have 5 players that are really above replacement level, CC, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis and Jeffers. Three of the 5 are generally hurt, one is very streaky and the other prior to this year was only allowed to face opposite pitchers and got hurt this year. Is it a surprise they started out this slow, not really, would it be a surprise if a few of the replacement levels players got and and the Twins go out and win say  8 of 12 at some point, not really. Can they do it long enough to hold off the other teams in the division, not likely

This is accurate. Though it's worse, as several of the below replacement guys are well below.... And are veterans who they will not replace. 

[Coach Wheels]

There is so much to hate about Twins baseball right now, it just feels like piling on. 

A) Key players can't stay healthy.

B) Key players aren't as good as advertised.

C) Young players don't get better.

D) Ownership didn't care enough to spend more than $10 million in FA and they are more interested in getting out of baseball than making it better.

This organization is a drag.

[GNess]

I know it's something of a dead horse, but some of these struggles are directly connected to the Twins lack of activity in the off season. They basically stood pat or worse added veteran players who haven't hit much in their careers. That approach limits the team to improving via a draft and develop mode. What top end hitter have the Twins promoted from within over the last five or so years?

[AKTwinsFan]

It's mostly swinging at stuff below or outside the zone. I know it's easier said then done but when we were good last season we had been hitting fastballs and laying off breaking stuff or chasing. Now every team knows just to pitch us breaking stuff or offspeed. 

[dcswede]

Thought experiment: It's the 6th inning, and the Twins are down two runs. What is your gut expectation as to whether the Twins will come back to win?

Exactly.

It's not quantifiable analytically, but it sure feels like the players don't think they have a chance either. There's no fire - no fight. But a whole lot of playing like and accepting disappointment. It's been that way for a few years now. So maybe it is time for change in leadership.

[Taildragger8791]

I'm just upset I wasted money on the full-season MLB.tv package instead of going month-to-month so I could cancel already. This poo poo platter is not going to improve much, and if it does they'll be so buried it won't matter.

At this point I'm worried they'll need to sell off the few valuable parts they have and go into a soft rebuild by mid-season. They need at least 4 hitters better than anyone on the roster now, and those guys can't be butchers in the field. Tough to pull off.

Someone else made an enlightening comment when they asked "who would you want at the plate in a big at-bat today?". I'm disheartened that I couldn't answer that question. I'd say Wallner when healthy, but after that...oof.

[Dave Borton]

Sheesh. I had them 78-84. Now I feel like a fool.