Twins Video
Entering Sunday’s game, Twins batters were 27th in OPS, 28th in walk rate, and 25th in Win Probability Added (WPA) among the 30 MLB teams. Ironically, after years and years of gripes from a large portion of the fan base, their strikeout rate of 22.7% ranks a respectable 16th. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said when runners are in scoring position. In those situations, the Twins' strikeout rate jumps to 24.6% (fifth-highest in baseball) and their walk rate drops to 6.3% (second-lowest in baseball), although their OPS is actually 54 points higher.
The greatest source of concern, though, is their quality of contact. While they have hit the ball hard and are an extreme pull-hitting team, they currently have the 10th-highest groundball rate in the league. Data shows that the most productive batted balls are hit in the air to the batter’s pull side. Since 2021, the difference between pulling the ball on the ground versus in the air is roughly a peak Barry Bonds worth of OPS (1.780 versus .401). Just putting the ball in play against a professional defense to “see what happens” rarely gets the job done.
Looking back to last season, it was easy to write off the last month and a half to a team-wide, contagious slump. Surely, a team that was on a 92-win pace through 124 games just needed the offseason to reset after a historic collapse, right? Alas, that “slump” has carried over into the 2025 season and since the start of that collapse, the team is on a 50-win pace over 60 games.
I'm here to tell you this isn't a slump; it's who they are. While they profiled differently last year by pulling the ball in the air more, they finished the season near the bottom third of teams in OPS and wRC+ with runners in scoring position. Removing that split from the equation, the team was in the top third of teams in the same categories. The difference can also be seen in their WPA. While they finished ninth in WPA in 2024, their Clutch rating of -1.27 indicates that they would have been even better—perhaps far better—had they hit as well when the chips were down as they did in lower-leverage situations.
Not only has that carried over into 2025, but their ineptitude has been exacerbated by a diminished quality of contact regardless of the situation. That's all to say, the Twins failed to have productive at-bats when it mattered most. However, it's not an issue that is unique to having runners in scoring position.
As is the case in most sports, the general goal is to be roughly .500 against the “good” teams and take care of business against the “bad” teams. The Twins were very good at the latter last season, but not so much the former. In fact, the Twins offense (once again) didn't show up when it mattered most in 2024. Against playoff teams, they not only performed below their season averages, but also performed worse than the league average in nearly all statistical categories. While their offense as a whole performed well, they failed to execute in the season’s biggest moments.
While we focused tightly on the last 39 games of 2024, we’re seeing in 2025 that that might be misguided. The Twins offense isn't off to a slow start. This is who they have been. This is who they are.







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