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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Berrios also showed a lot more 'stuff'. He just needed to stop tipping his pitches and make some adjustments back and forth. Jax's pedestrian 'stuff' does not give him the same basis for a breakthrough.
  2. Buxton was slow coming back from injury, but has progressively gotten better week by week since then. Over the last 3 weeks he's hitting .273/.341/.584 with a normal BABIP. He's been scorching over the last week or two. Superstar or not, the Twins tend to win a lot more with him than without him and that's all that matters.
  3. Do we know for certain that Dobnak's finger strain won't be a lingering issue? Or is he surgically repairing it? Sounds like something that needs to be properly fixed before it goes away...
  4. Results would indicate it wasn't an unfair label. Some guys come in more advanced on certain tools than others. Clearly he had zero advanced skills/tools and needs to be molded and developed almost from scratch across the board.
  5. Any concern that the very poor strikeout/walk rates may indicate a fatal flaw in his hit tool? I understand the lack of results in a tough adjustment to a tough hitting league...but I expect the raw bat-to-ball skill should still come through.
  6. I don’t think any SP prospects after Ryan are ready out of the gate next year. Everyone else has injury or performance issues to iron out, or innings limits to consider. If we hold a year-long rotation spot open for tryouts it’s going to be a disaster. There will be opportunities out of the bullpen or once injuries strike if guys force their way up. You’re already taking on quite a bit of risk slotting Ryan and Ober in full-time. Either could falter and create an opening as well.
  7. I tentatively agree, but I was a little concerned as he lost his control that he was having to go back to the same pitch over and over until it started getting hammered. That fastball in the upper-right corner was a favorite spot and guys started sitting on that until he changed it up. Hopefully he gets a little less predictable and more confident in mixing up his pitches to prevent that.
  8. At a minimum, Joe Ryan looks like he'd make a lights-out reliever with that deceptive delivery. Once he got guys sitting fastball he did a good job mixing in changeups and curves to get swings and misses. He didn't seem to throw his curve for strikes, not sure that'll play against better hitters. Also not sure good hitters won't continue yanking out those fastballs if he continues to throw them 70% of the time (or 90% the first time through the lineup). There were 2-3 balls that almost left the park last night. He also has that weird fastball/slider thing that he throws in the upper RH corner and off the plate a lot. That's the one fooled guys early but eventually got him in trouble with walks. Not sure if that was a control issue or if it was an attempt to induce chases. If it's the latter I don't think it'll work at this level. Guys were spitting on that pitch.
  9. Duffey and Gant seem like near-locks to me depending on arb 3 salaries. Duffey has been solid for 3 years now, with a little more up and down this season. Gant looks effective as a good swing man which the team will certainly need next year. The rest of the question marks should be replaced in my book.
  10. I hope and expect it will be someone not currently in the organization. It should be someone that flashes serious tools in games even at a young age. Between easing back from injury and needing quite a bit of development still, I suspect Royce Lewis won't be using up his rookie eligibility next year and would be the most likely candidate for 2023. I see him being up and down all year and struggling similar to our young Byron Buxton. Petty is a huge wildcard as a high school pitcher with no MiLB time yet, so he's got my vote for younger internal candidates based on the completely unknown ceiling alone. I'm very down on Cavaco. He doesn't have a natural 'hit' tool and that can't be learned. Strikeout rate in July/August combined is almost 39% and walk rate is 5%, so he's not progressing at all. Urbina is interesting but hasn't flashed much to me. I understand he's young but you still gotta show flashes to make #1 prospect. Noah Miller is defense-first which would be tough to make top prospect unless he gets on base at a high clip and steals bases.
  11. Agree we shouldn't be putting that kind of pressure on a AA prospect who is probably a year away. I figure Pineda is good for missing 2 months per year, so you need a fallback there. Maybe that's where Gant comes in. I would never assume this team will successfully sign a #2 pitcher though. Hardly any of those are available in a given year and they get paid. Pitching prospects, even promising ones, struggle to make the leap to MLB all the time. I don't think we can count on anyone outside of Ober for next year. I think Ryan will get a significant opportunity but you still need to assume he'll struggle. I would make every other prospect force their way into the rotation unless we're calling it a rebuild year and are prepared for 100 losses. I don't know how you fill in the other 3 rotation spots at this point.
  12. I don't think the Twins can make any plans that count on this kid next year. He's found money if he turns out to be healthy & effective. In my classic Minnesota pessimistic view: He's still sidelined with a vague elbow strain, right? I imagine he's going to rest/rehab until spring '22 at this point. Maybe it's something that heals on its own but we've seen enough times this lead to eventual surgery that will wipe out another year and a half. At which point he'll be 25 years old with 3 years of minimal innings. If all goes well and he holds up health-wise then he'll then spend 2nd half of 2023 establishing innings/command. So new ETA is 2024 at 26 years old, probably with a new ball club.
  13. You're not making any sense. And I just don't see why you'd levy an accusation when there is plenty of reasonable doubt against it. There are plenty of other cases of service time manipulation to point to but this one just ain't it. Hiding behind "I'm not accusing, I'm just throwing it out there" is bad faith.
  14. He's never appeared on any serious prospect lists. He wasn't ranked in Houston's top 30 prospects at any point that I could find. His calling card is supposedly defense which was pretty shaky when he was up with the Twins. Only recently has he started to pop up and look like maybe he could hang in the majors, but he has a ways to go. He's most likely outcome is 4th OF. So yes, marginal.
  15. If your argument is "you can't prove a negative" and "nobody can ever know anything for certain" then I don't know what we're even bothering to comment for. Maybe they sent him down because he clogs the locker room toilets and repeatedly hits on Rocco's wife. It's an unfounded guess to say that ISN'T the reasoning.
  16. Cave and Refsnyder both returned from injuries. They no longer needed to force an undercooked marginal prospect into the daily lineup. He belongs at AAA where he can focus on daily development.
  17. You flat out said service time factored into sending him down. That's a pretty unfounded guess. The guy has barely played above A ball and was hitting .136/.177/.288 in the majors. He needs quite a bit more development time.
  18. We're going to accuse the Twins of service time manipulation every time they option a young player now? Particularly a guy that was struggling and wouldn't have been there without multiple injuries and 40-man considerations?
  19. Lewis Thorpe...big guy, 6'4 280. He loves his scotch. Hell of a salesman. He once punch a bald eagle because it wasn't American enough. Big guy, 6'7 384 lbs! I once saw him eat a whole live chicken. His first words as a baby were "grab your clothes and beat it sweetheart!". Big s.o.b, 7-8' and 500 lbs! His colonoscopy tape got higher rating than How I Met Your Mother. To Lewis Thorpe! A 10' tall 2-ton son of a b---- that could eat a hammer and take a shotgun blast standing! (I may have confused some of these stories with a big fella named Bill Brasky...)
  20. Ok, so even if he doesn't hit for power it's still low average, high walk & strikeout rate vs. high average, low walk & strikeout rate. Both suck at defense so they have that in common, but at least with Delmon we got to see him run like he was holding a penny in his cheeks. So that was fun.
  21. Delmon Young has a very different profile. He hit for average, didn't draw walks, didn't strike out a ton, and didn't hit for power. He was a quintessential "empty average" hitter. Larnach is supposed to be the opposite in pretty much each of those categories. Although the power disappeared after his nice start, he still projects to hit for power (assuming he hits at all).
  22. Ryan, Winder, Sands, and Canterino are the only ones that seem like they could be more than a 4/5 and are ready to try out next year. Sands/Canterino may run into innings limits though. Ober/Jax better not be planned for more than a #5/RP role out of the gate. Everyone else has a combination of innings limits, health issues, or control/consistency problems to work out. It would be irresponsible to assume any of them will see MLB time before late '22.
  23. I put less stock in AFL numbers vs the entire season he had leading into it. Gordon had a similar breakout in AFL just to fall back again, so clearly the environment down there can lead to unrepresentative results. But grading on potential alone I can see why he’d be #1 until he comes back healthy and shows where he’s at.
  24. OOF. Wtf. Too early in the morning. For some reason I had Sabato on my brain as I was reading. Age should have been a giveaway, but the numbers between the two guys have a familiar echo... Time to go get some coffee. I agree Larnach is not setting off alarm bells for me yet. He needs another season of back and forth adjustments before I'll get too concerned, assuming the K-rate can come down into the 20's.
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