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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. WTF Sano. This guy has no value if he isn’t hitting 60 homeruns because he’s a total clown show on the base paths. Jesus.
  2. His numbers look similar to Brent Rooker with a little less power; who himself looks like yet another AAAA power-only hitter so far. Tough to see it translating to MLB without a significant improvement in strikeout/walk rate. But good on him for making the jump. Maybe he can become a quality backup with some more improvement.
  3. For a guy who just started AA this year and is blocked at the MLB level, I'm cool with him continuing to learn at the AAA level until September. There isn't really much playing time for him unless they want to bounce him all over the field. Rooker/Astudillo/Sano/Donaldson have 3B/1B/DH covered. Gordon/Polanco/Simmons have the middle infield. Arraez could come back. Let's not yank him around during a crucial breakout period. Also don't want to burn an option year unnecessarily just to get a peek at a guy.
  4. Has there been any update on Buxton's wrist recovery? Last I saw, a month ago, they were evaluating whether or not he'd need surgery. Has a determination been made or is it still wait and see?
  5. Assuming compensatory picks are still relevant/valuable after the next CBA.
  6. He’s gone less than 6 innings in over 1/3 of his starts (7 out of 19). He’s gone 6.0 or 6.1 in another 7 starts. So saying he mostly goes 5-6 innings was a fair assessment. That leaves 5 starts where he actually made it through the seventh. Looking back, 2020 was much worse. 2019 a bit better. 2018 was similar. Over his career so far he’s a very solid 6.0 inning guy. so he’s an innings eater insomuch as he’s always healthy and taking the ball and usually gets to that 6.0 inning mark. That is very valuable. But he’s not giving the bullpen a break. You need 3 relievers more often than not. That was my only point. I’m much more interested in keeping him unless he’s dead set on free agency. All indications are that he is so from that standpoint he’s as good as gone anyways. This team can’t compete next year without 9 new pitchers and 3 hitters, and the CBA negotiations could derail everything. So where’s the upside to keeping him?
  7. "Pitching into the 7th" isn't much of a credit when he got no outs and had a total meltdown of his control (again) that led to 3 runs. We all know he can occasionally go 7 or 8 but he has more games than you'd like where he barely gets to 5 or 6 innings. A solid mid-rotation pitcher with his talent should be able to reliably eat innings and take pressure off the bullpen and remaining starters.
  8. If he'd take Zach Wheeler money I'd give that to him today and put this today bed. I bet the Twins would too. I think he feels he can do better than that if he can put together one good year before free agency though. He's going to take that bet because Zach Wheeler money is basically the floor if he makes it to FA without an implosion or injury.
  9. I don't know that the Twins want him for 'pennies on the dollar', they just won't want to spend top 20 money to a guy who is more like top 40-50. Looking at the top contenders right now, going into the playoffs Berrios would slot in as a #4 or top bullpen arm on their staff. But if he thinks he'll command top dollar from even one team out there (and I don't blame him at all for thinking that) then the Twins will have to match that or let him go find out for himself. Like Yu Darvis had to find out the hard way a few years ago that he's not viewed as an elite ace. Even if he only ends up with offers similar to (or less than) what the Twins proposed, they will probably lose him to a more competitive/intriguing team.
  10. It's good for the regular season where things average out over time against a broad range of pitching quality. They still score over half their runs off the long ball though. And Cruz is going to leave a monster hole to fill. Donaldson may be another hole soon. That's a lot of quality, high impact plate appearances to replace. I have concerns.
  11. I’d add on that we’ve been shown the offensive approach employed since 2019 is not resilient or consistent enough to succeed reliably. It’s really hard to just hit home runs against top pitchers in October.
  12. Yes and no. Every hitter had a career year at the same time. It was a charmed season that won’t repeat. The pitching has turned over almost completely since then. The veteran hitters are either aging or busting and will need to be replaced soon anyways.
  13. He might put up $10 million worth of value but he also hamstrings your roster if you have to plan for a highly capable backup, or if he's unavailable in the playoffs or stretch runs. I don't think it's as easy as WAR to dollars makes it seem.
  14. In another summary of this article it was mentioned that the Twins are proposing an incentive-heavy deal for staying healthy and on the field, which significantly increased the numbers. Would be great if that worked out but I suspect Buxton knows he could get more guarantees from some gambling front office by going to FA.
  15. This has disaster written all over it. The elevated walk rate makes me think he lives on the edge of the zone or just outside with mediocre stuff, which gets strikeouts in the minors but will lead to a ton of trouble against major league hitters.
  16. Larnach's last month he's hitting .230/.292/.402 with a 38% K-rate. He's been particularly bad against LH pitching all year. Kirilloff has been getting better as the season goes on (and as the wrist injury gets further in the rear view mirror). He's better against lefties than righties so far and seems to be the more consistent hitter. I'm partial to guys who naturally get the bat to the ball like he does.
  17. So is he likely a bullpen candidate without an effective change up or some other true third pitch?
  18. I think some people got on Javier's bandwagon a little too quickly. He went on a nice power-hitting tear over 2 1/2 weeks but fell back to earth hard. Season strikeout rate is ~33%. Cutting his season up into three parts: First 21 games: .179/.238/.282 with 37% K-rate Hot streak (next 15 games): .317/.362/.698 with 22% K-rate June 18th (last 13 games): .135/.220/.191 with 44% K-rate Overall numbers aren't that far off from 2019, just with a little more pop for that middle stretch.
  19. While he's improved to 3 walks per 9 this year, that's still kind of high for a reliever. And that's against AA hitting. He'll need to improve that command or he'll just be a (maybe slightly better) Hansel Robles type. If his fastball/slider are really major league pitches, shouldn't he be evaluated as a starter with that elite changeup as a 3rd pitch?
  20. I'm with you, but who do you put these guys behind on the rankings then? There aren't better hitting prospects in the system, which to me is concerning because there is high risk attached to poor-contact hitters. I don't expect future major league starting-caliber hitters to struggle heavily with contact in the low minors, especially college bats. It's like these guys are lacking in the raw 'hit' tool and hoping to develop it just enough to leverage their other tools, but that is really tough. Maybe I'm way off base though.
  21. It seems to me the litmus test for these guys is whether or not the minor league pipeline can start churning out arms. Everything up to now has been band-aids to make do with veterans and reclamation projects. 2020/2021 set back that pipeline so we don’t have much to go on yet. There appear to be a number of talented arms on the cusp and in the next year we’ll start to see hard data on their results. I’m skeptical, but I’m giving them that time before taking a strong stance.
  22. Twins really gotta get Berrios to honestly assess whether the can extend him or not. If it’s looking unlikely then the time will never be better to get a haul to help rebuild this team with a new young wave. He’s having a career best season (which is still only a mid-3 ERA) and he’s still young enough and healthy. I’d rather keep him but it would be unbelievably bone-headed to lose him for nothing. This team isn’t competing for a couple more years anyways. Several prospects they need to break in and sort through before they can open another window.
  23. Lots of guys have #1/#2 potential if you focus on their strengths and assume they'll significantly improve their weaknesses. There are a LOT of guys in the minors that can throw hard and have a nasty pitch or two, but they can't put it together into an effective package at the major league level.
  24. Any word on Duran's elbow? That 'elbow strain' suggests inevitable Tommy John when there hasn't been any optimistic details given. What bum luck. Does this franchise do something to pitching prospects or is it just standard procedure now to blow out an elbow before you make the majors?
  25. That's what I'm talking about. Those guys you mentioned plus Lewis & Miranda are about the only promising bats I see in the system, and none of them are a sure bet to play premium defense (TBD on Lewis or Miranda). There's nothing of note below those guys all the way to A ball. On the pitching side there are a few names to be excited about but pitching is such a crapshoot to pan out. I hesitate to count those chickens before they hatch. And again, after those top names there isn't a lot in the system. They need a couple good rounds of drafts and IFA to restock the system or it'll be another prospect deserve like we had a decade ago.
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