Astros 9, Twins 7: Twins Get to Blanco Early, Astros Chip Away and Pull Away in Extras

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, LewFordLives said:

They let one get away. These are the ones that stay with you. Plenty of blame to go around, but to me the main takeaway is how long will Paddack's leash be. 

Already to long.  He needs to go be someone else's problem.

[Parfigliano]

38 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Duran, THEN Jax?

Rocco always gotta prove he's the smartest guy in the room. 

 

He is not.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

A dreadful loss allowing Houston to score 8 unanswered runs to win  , I too thought a 7 to 1 lead was a comfortable lead only to watch it evaporate ...

The eye test and the analytics  tell you Jax is not the closer , Duran  is our closer  , it was a Rocco and bench coaches decision blunder to allow this to happen  ...

This team had 4 doubles and 8 singles , they scored 7 runs without a homerun  , this is what they need to continue to do to score more runs  , they are not a homerun hitting team ...

Last , when will the twins ever learn to score the Manfred man in extra innings  ,  at least you close the gap to 1 run in this loss ... 

This was a tough loss to swallow  ... it's another loss in the loss column that could have been a win ...

 

We just can't do Texas..

[JD-TWINS]

55 minutes ago, AceWrigley said:

This was a bad loss. A rubber game, Sunday afternoon, at home. Less than 15,000 in the seats. Game doesn't even make the top headlines (at this moment at least) over at ESPN. Not creating a lot of excitement here.

I noticed there seemed to be a meager crowd - thought that was odd this early - maybe cold? (Am in Cincinnati)

Anyway, I’m surprised I hadn’t seen any real complaints here in posts other than Baldelli’s managing (happens win or lose) and pitching. DEFENSE was terrible in my opinion. Castro, in one inning at 3B (I think 3 of 4 batters) he misses a sharp ground ball down the line (Morneau criticized the play so it had to have been playable) and it goes for a double - needed to be knocked down at a minimum. Then next guy hits a ball to him and he makes a nice stop but then his throw pulls Gasper off the bag (tough play but a whisker from an out). Finally, pop fly down the line and Bader is coming in and comes to a complete stop 2 steps shy of the ball hitting the ground as Castro circled into foul territory and then back into play, cutting Bader off on the play………any of these 3 plays on their own wouldn’t be a big deal but all 3 happening over 6-7 pitches was a killer. It’s why Paddack got chased in 4th with nobody out.

Varland is pitching and he throws a 98MPH fastball on the outside corner black (for strike 2) at the knees and Jeffers stabs at it and drops it - why? It was called a ball. Provus mentioned it right away. Then later in the 10th they know Astros will send guy at 1B and then try to score the other runner from 3B. Play that’s on for Twins is to throw to 2B and have the IF (Julien) catch it in front of the bag for probable return throw to home……..Jeffers throws the ball high (7.5 feet maybe) and on the 1B side of Julien - he then can’t make the return throw to home, accurately, and another run scores. Simple details that turn any chances of winning.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Duran, THEN Jax?

Rocco always gotta prove he's the smartest guy in the room. 

 

I don't get this one. Jax is supposed to be the better reliever, as seen last year. I would have rather him vs the top of the order the following inning. Plenty to criticize Baldelli for, but this is just another example of inventing mud to throw. I don't get it, there's enough to complain about already.

[Doctor Gast]

Coming back from a 7-1 deficit shows a lot of grit & a confidence booster. Losing a 7-1 lead destroys confidence & gives other teams hope that they come back & beat the Twins. This loss is bigger than what it looks on paper.

[mrtwinsfan]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

1B = Black Hole

Paddack = Pen 

Zebby = MLB

Miranda = Thin Ice

MICKEY GASSER ====  BYE BYE ALSO

[howeda7]

The Paddock experiment needs to end. it doesn't matter if he's out of options, no one will claim his contract at $7 million. He's in the exact some boat as Dobnak but I'd rather have Dobnak in the bullpen than Paddock. Just DFA him already. And Gasper does not need to be on this roster over Austin Martin. He provides zero value with the bat or the glove. 

[Mike Sixel]

It's amazing people are blaming the manager. Truly. 

[Mike Sixel]

I'm beginning to suspect Varland isn't a legit RP....

[Aggies7]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't get this one. Jax is supposed to be the better reliever, as seen last year. I would have rather him vs the top of the order the following inning. Plenty to criticize Baldelli for, but this is just another example of inventing mud to throw. I don't get it, there's enough to complain about already.

I wouldn’t blame this loss on the manager. I just believe there should be a 9th inning guy if he’s shown to be solid in that spot. Duran is generally a better 9th inning save guy. If nothing else he seems to struggle outside of that, although not today. I still believe the 9th inning is a different animal and some guys are better suited for it. Why Jax can’t just set him up is odd to me. If they’re both good relievers, which I think most agree they are.

[KirbyDome89]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm beginning to suspect Varland isn't a legit RP....

Careful, that blasphemy in these parts. 

[mrtwinsfan]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's amazing people are blaming the manager. Truly. 

WHOSE JOB IS IT TO KEEP THE TEAM CHEMISTRY ??   AND HAVE PLAYERS PLAY FOR YA ? ZERO EMOTION ZERO EVERYTHING ,,  AND TO CHANGE IT ==  SORRY CHARLIE ,  MANAGERS GO 1ST

[tony&rodney]

A while back there was some discussion of how many batted balls that should be outs actually wound up as base hits or errors. Well today was a game lost because of well below average defense. It is easy to see the number of runs scored and conclude the pitchers didn't do their jobs. That is only partially true. You can tick the box that puts this loss down to the defense. 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't get this one. Jax is supposed to be the better reliever, as seen last year. I would have rather him vs the top of the order the following inning. Plenty to criticize Baldelli for, but this is just another example of inventing mud to throw. I don't get it, there's enough to complain about already.

Excuse away.

 

[Doc Lenz]

If you expect to win with a guy that’s 1-32 in his career your team isn’t very good. I don’t care if he can play 8 positions and sell more beer than Wally the Beerman. 

[Doc Lenz]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I noticed there seemed to be a meager crowd - thought that was odd this early - maybe cold? (Am in Cincinnati)

Anyway, I’m surprised I hadn’t seen any real complaints here in posts other than Baldelli’s managing (happens win or lose) and pitching. DEFENSE was terrible in my opinion. Castro, in one inning at 3B (I think 3 of 4 batters) he misses a sharp ground ball down the line (Morneau criticized the play so it had to have been playable) and it goes for a double - needed to be knocked down at a minimum. Then next guy hits a ball to him and he makes a nice stop but then his throw pulls Gasper off the bag (tough play but a whisker from an out). Finally, pop fly down the line and Bader is coming in and comes to a complete stop 2 steps shy of the ball hitting the ground as Castro circled into foul territory and then back into play, cutting Bader off on the play………any of these 3 plays on their own wouldn’t be a big deal but all 3 happening over 6-7 pitches was a killer. It’s why Paddack got chased in 4th with nobody out.

Varland is pitching and he throws a 98MPH fastball on the outside corner black (for strike 2) at the knees and Jeffers stabs at it and drops it - why? It was called a ball. Provus mentioned it right away. Then later in the 10th they know Astros will send guy at 1B and then try to score the other runner from 3B. Play that’s on for Twins is to throw to 2B and have the IF (Julien) catch it in front of the bag for probable return throw to home……..Jeffers throws the ball high (7.5 feet maybe) and on the 1B side of Julien - he then can’t make the return throw to home, accurately, and another run scores. Simple details that turn any chances of winning.

If Rocco had a first baseman taller than 5’9 it would have been an out. Just sayin

[Aggies7]

Not having starters pitch into or past the 5th inning so often is really hurting. Twins have averaged 4.4 IP for starters. Which shockingly is only 15th in MLB

[jkcarew]

Houston is not your older brother’s Astros. They are ok…decent…not great by any stretch.

Houston is 2-4 in games not against the Twins (all home games)

Chicago is 1-5 in games not against the Twins.

St. Louis is 1-5 in games not against the Twins.

4-14 vs league, 6-3 vs Twins. (And no…none have played the Yankees or Dodgers.)

This isn’t “just one game”. It’s a bad baseball team playing really badly. The pitching isn’t as good as advertised, but probably will settle down and be decent. But even in the best scenario for the pitching, the defense will still be horrible. Really, really horrible. And the offense looks bottom half, as expected.

The manager is part of the problem, not nearly all of the problem. But he’s been part of the problem for long enough, now. And nothing’s going to change without making a change at manager.

[h2oface]

They want Varland to be "good" so bad, but he really hasn't performed except in the minors and at the end of a couple years ago when brought up and pitched relief. Baldelli sure is giving him lots of chances to perform, but he gets hit a lot. Best Bullpen in MLB.

[Doctor Wu]

11 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Since 2021 if we’re being honest. 

I was about to say ...1991

[Bodie]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

I thought 7-1 was a safe enough lead to turn off the game and go outside. Evidently not. 

Felt pretty confident going into the commercial break with the 7-1 lead. The we come back 2 minutes later, and I remember whose pitching and my first thought was "7 to 1 ain't safe with Paddack and 5 innings plus of bullpen".

Swear on my life.

[TwinsDr2021]

11 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't get this one. Jax is supposed to be the better reliever, as seen last year. I would have rather him vs the top of the order the following inning. Plenty to criticize Baldelli for, but this is just another example of inventing mud to throw. I don't get it, there's enough to complain about already.

Jax's career his has blown 20 of a 101 save chances - 19.8%

Duran's career his has blown 7 of 92 save chances - 7.6%

They both have bullpen staples since 2022,

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm beginning to suspect Varland isn't a legit RP....

What do you expect from him? He is supposed to be the 7th or 8th guy out of the pen and has pitched in 6 of 9 games. He hasn't given up multiple runs yet and and hasn't given up a run in half of his appearances. I don't think he will ever be on the three or four best guys out of the pen, but what he is doing hasn't been horrible for a back end bullpen guy. If I have complaints it is that he hasn't been used for more than 1 inning causing the overuse of everybody.

[jorgenswest]

13 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Jax should not be closing. He has a poor save percentage. It may just be psychological but it's real; he doesn't do well in save situations.

Isn’t the save percentage of set up men? If they enter the game in the 7th or 8th set up men can get a blown save but won’t have an opportunity to record a save. Relievers can get a hold. Did you factor in holds into your calculation? Alternatively I suppose you could remove all blown save prior to the ninth inning to calculate the save percentage as a closer. That might be a pretty small sample to be meaningful though.

Maybe the save percentage calculation includes holds. @TwinsDr2021 data seems like it might. There is still a skew though. Closers usually enter in a clean inning. Set up men more often enter with runners on base giving them a greater chance to blow a save.

[David Maro]

Mistakes all around in this one,Bader's throw to 2nd not to Correa cost a run. Not getting the BP up after Paddock's walk to the leadoff hitter to start the 5th. Having Castro at 3rd who looked like he had never played the position. I could go on with more but I won't.  

One last thing that I have said for at least 2 years Varland isn't a pitcher,he is a thrower. He is clueless on where the ball is going when he throws it.

[TwinsDr2021]

56 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Isn’t the save percentage of set up men? If they enter the game in the 7th or 8th set up men can get a blown save but won’t have an opportunity to record a save. Relievers can get a hold. Did you factor in holds into your calculation? Alternatively I suppose you could remove all blown save prior to the ninth inning to calculate the save percentage as a closer. That might be a pretty small sample to be meaningful though.

Maybe the save percentage calculation includes holds. @TwinsDr2021 data seems like it might. There is still a skew though. Closers usually enter in a clean inning. Set up men more often enter with runners on base giving them a greater chance to blow a save.

Career

Jax, 15 saves, 66 holds, 20 blown

Duran, 58 save, 27 holds, 7 blown.

Blown save or Blown hold are are the same IMO, the pitcher entered with a lead, the other team tied the game or went ahead. If you go though Jax's game log for his career he generally pitches great for 4 to 6 games and then blown one. Sometimes he goes a game or two longer, but that is how it has went.

[mikelink45]

The Twins have really done a good job of losing the excitement of the MLB season already.  They may turn things around and I hope they do, but when the fan base is already upset by the proposed sale that did not happen, the crushing - we are going to reduce the payroll, the inactivity in trades and FA, the TV mess, and the terrible ending to last year we need something really good to happen soon to get the fans back or it will be fishing and cabin season and the best the team can hope for is a good radio audience.

[LambchoP]

Think it's safe to say Castro doesn't belong at third. I get that Rocco is obsessed with utility guys, but he should be playing second or left field, otherwise he's a liability. With Julien and France already defensive liabilities on the right side, we can't afford it. I say give Paddack one more start. If he can't get through the fifth inning then send him to the pen as long man and call up Zebby. Our pen cannot pitch more than half the game every day. Hopefully we can get some wins in KC otherwise we're quickly going to find ourselves in a hole we can't get out of. Glad to hear Lee is on a rehab assignment. Hopefully he hits well and can replace Julien on the MLB roster.

[jorgenswest]

In the moment I agreed with Morneau on the broadcast about using Duran in the 8th and Jax in the 9th. If Duran doesn’t have it against the bottom of the order and can’t finish the 8th they can use Jax across the remaining part of the 8th and the 9th. Jax had not pitched the previous day. They would not be able to do the reverse of the that and use Duran to finish the 8th and then the 9th. If Duran is the only one that can be trusted in the 9th then there are going to be many late game failures this year. I don’t fault Rocco here.

I do have an argument about his management of Paddack in the fifth inning. I would have had a reliever getting ready to start the inning. Paddack was facing batters 8 and 9. If either gets in scoring position he needs to be ready to pull Paddack before he see the top of the order a third time. If he didn’t have a reliever warming to start the 5th inning he should have had a reliever warming after the first two pitches of the inning. They were not near competitive pitches way above the strike zone. There is no way he intended to throw them that high. The at bat ended witha non competitive pitch in the dirt on a 3-2 count. Was there anyone warming yet? I don’t know but I hope so. The number 9 hitter gets a hit on the first pitch. The pitch was in the low part of the strike zone but cut the plate in half. Too easy to hit. Rocco should have had a reliever in for Altuve. He should have anticipated the need. Altuve hit his first pitch that was the same pitch same spot as the previous hitter. I thought it was good fortune that it was a play that could be challenged. If no reliever was ready yet certainly the additional time of the lengthy review would get them ready. No reliever yet.

In hindsight I can see the Jax/Duran decision failed. In the moment it made sense to me. Perhaps I have trust in Jax that I shouldn’t. My thoughts on the 5th inning are not in hindsight. I don’t have trust in Paddack to face the top of a line up with runners on even with a 6 run lead. I would have had Sands in the game to face Altuve after the 8-9 hitters got on. He would been warming up and ready in anticipation of Paddack not getting the 8 and 9 hitters out.