Minnesota Twins 2025 Season Preview: Good or Great?

[Nick Nelson]

People are sleeping on this Twins team. Time for a wake-up call.

Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer, Kim Klement Neitzel, Chris Tilley-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins experienced a historic and catastrophic collapse in the final six weeks of last season, coming up severely short of their potential, and they still finished with a winning record. That's an important fact to keep in mind as we start to analyze the outlook for this year's roster, which—for better or worse—is largely unchanged. 

This is a good team. Vegas knows it. Projection models substantiate it. Many Twins fans don't seem to recognize it, or care. That's understandable. The pall of a tumultuous ownership situation and lifeless offseason hang over this franchise and won't clear until they can go on the field, start winning, and catalyze the community. Good won't cut it; they need to be great. And they are plenty capable.

As we set the stage for the 2025 season here on Opening Day, here's a breakdown of everything you need to know about the Twins and their outlook.

Still looking for somewhere to watch this afternoon's season opener against the Cardinals? Join us at BlackStack Brewing in St. Paul! It's free to attend, and you can claim a free beer by RSVP-ing here.

Projections and Over-Unders
Statistical projections and Vegas odds stop mattering once the games start being played. But as we look ahead one final time, probabilistic models and betting benchmarks can provide helpful outside context in evaluating the season-opening state of affairs.

According to FanGraphs’ probabilistic Playoff Odds model—which runs 20,000 simulations using team projections from its Depth Charts system—the Twins are forecast to win 84 games with a 55% chance of reaching the postseason. They lead the AL Central division in both regards, despite coming off a fourth-place finish. In fact, the Twins are the third-most likely team in the American League to clinch a bye, trailing only the Yankees and Mariners. It's a good team.

(Source)

Vegas agrees. There's basically a consensus across betting markets that the Twins are slight AL Central favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook, as one example, has Minnesota (+220) narrowly edging the Tigers (+230), with a healthier distance in front of Cleveland and Kansas City. These specifics vary by the source; the Twins usually have the shortest odds, but no one is viewing them as anything close a heavy favorite. And anyway, that doesn't really matter, because the preseason favorite has rarely ended up on top of the Central in recent years.

The moneyline numbers do tell us something about widespread perception of this team. Everyone is aware of what happened to the Twins at the end of last year. Everyone is aware they finished fourth, and did next to nothing in the offseason. Still, there's a relatively strong level of confidence among invested onlookers. Because it's a good team.

Position-by-Position Overviews
Over the past few weeks, I went through each area of the Twins' roster, position by position, to break down the outlook, depth and future. You can catch up on all of these position previews below.

Catcher

• Ryan Jeffers and Christian Vazquez have been the league's most durable backstop duo, but that hasn't translated to outstanding overall performance. Jeffers's bat holds the key to elevating the Twins at catcher.

First Base

• In 2024 it was the team's only position of stability. Now, the Twins aim to replace Carlos Santana with a long-shot reclamation flier on Ty France. They need to hope it pays off because the depth behind him is sparse. 

Second Base

• Brooks Lee was contending for the starting job but will open on the injured list due to another back injury. That leaves Edouard Julien in the driver's seat, with Willi Castro and potentially Mickey Gasper set to mix in.

Third Base

• With both Lee and Royce Lewis down to start the year, Jose Miranda steps up as primary 3B, while Castro also factors in. The Twins now badly need Miranda to stay healthy and find consistency.

Shortstop

• Carlos Correa staying on the field and productive coming off two injury-ravaged seasons is perhaps the single biggest key to Minnesota's success. With Lee down, there aren't really any trusted contingencies at short.

Left Field

• Trevor Larnach is expected to split time between here and designated hitter, with Harrison Bader seeing a sizable share of time as well—especially against left-handers. A solid pairing of offensive and defensive strength.

Center Field

• Byron Buxton is in a good place physically, which has been rare over the course of his career. As long as that remains true, CF is well covered. Bader gives them a high-caliber backup plan.

Right Field

• The Max Kepler era has ended and now the Matt Wallner era begins. He has the potential to establish himself as one of the league's top sluggers at the position, if he can keep the prolonged slumps at bay.

Designated Hitter

• Expect to see a medley of players rotating through DH, with the switch-hitting Gasper potentially serving as a regular early on until Lewis and Lee return to reduce the dependency on Miranda and Julien at 2B/3B.

Starting Pitcher

• The three-headed monster of Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober leads the way for a deep rotation that shapes up as one of the team's biggest and most encouraging strengths heading into the season. 

Relief Pitcher

• The Twins bullpen projects as the best in MLB, but relievers are notoriously fickle and tough to predict. The ability of this unit to achieve it's potential seems to really hinge on how good Jhoan Durán can be.

State of the AL Central
Heading into the past offseason, the Twins faced an imposing landscape in this evolving division. The Guardians reclaimed the Central crown, reaching the ALCS, while both Detroit and Kansas City leapfrogged Minnesota en route to postseason berths of their own. It looked as though the long-dormant Tigers and Royals were on the rise, poised to potentially invest and keep pushing this offseason while the Twins sat still.

But then ... everyone sat still. The AL Central as a whole barely made any noise during hot stove season, helping explain why no team has been able to elevate themselves above the idling Twins in projections or oddsmaking lines. In fact, the American League as a whole is wide open heading into this season, with the Astros down and the presumptive favorite Yankees besieged by devastating injuries. Compared to the East and West, teams in the Central will have the advantage of more matchups against the inept White Sox.

If the Twins can get things to click this year, capturing the No. 1 seed in the AL is not out of the question. For that to happen, they'll need several of the key storylines below to play out favorably.

Key Storylines for the 2025 Minnesota Twins
These are the pivotal narratives that will determine the fate of this this year's Twins team. 

Healthy skepticism
It's a cliché, especially for this team, but once again injuries are a central crux. Numerous players are looking to rebound from physically tumultuous seasons. There was an air of optimism throughout camp surrounding the team's health outlook, but then the setbacks started to mount in the final 10 days or so: Lewis's hamstring, Lee's back, Brock Stewart's hamstring and Michael Tonkin's shoulder will push all four players to the injured list to start the campaign.

An early blip or a sign of things to come? We'll see. The Twins have a reasonable amount of depth, especially on the pitching side, but as we've learned: when the attrition keeps on coming you're eventually going to run out of capable options. 

Read more: Next Man Up: Silver Linings of Some Bad End-of-Camp Injury News for the Twins

The Big Three
There aren't many teams around baseball that have three genuinely MVP-caliber players in their prime, poised to propel the lineup. The Twins have that in Correa, Buxton and Lewis, but keeping these three on the field at the same time has proven to be an extraordinary challenge. Bucking this trend will be critical if Minnesota is to fulfill its true potential as a championship contender.

We're already off to a bad start on the Lewis front, but Correa and Buxton had very encouraging camps from a physical standpoint, and that's big given how hobbled they both were at the end of 2024. If Lewis can come back relatively quickly and join a healthy Correa and Buxton, there's really no limit to where this team can go. 

Best-in-class bullpen?
A truly elite, shutdown bullpen can make up for a lot of flaws elsewhere on a roster. It can elevate an otherwise mediocre team to greatness. Just ask the 2024 Cleveland Guardians, who won the Central and reached the ALCS despite a rotation and offense that both rated as pretty pedestrian. 

This Twins bullpen has that type of potential. It really does. Their formidable stable of late-inning arms includes Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcala, Danny Coulombe, Louie Varland and hopefully Stewart once healthy. With good health, this unit has a chance to shorten games and tilt many close contests in Minnesota's favor.

Then again, with bullpens, you just never know...

Read more: 5 Reasons to Trust Jhoan Durán as Minnesota Twins Closer in 2025

Relying on offensive rebounds
So many key players on this team have outlooks that are riddled with variance. Julien, Miranda, Jeffers, Austin Martin and the currently-injured Lee and Lewis are all among the youngish hitters looking to rebound from bad seasons, or bad second halves at least. That also goes for both of the newcomers, Bader and France. 

All of these guys have the potential to be really good. They've shown that. But they also all have the potential to be really unproductive drains on the lineup, and unfortunately in all cases, we've seen that side more recently. It's a precarious situation for a team to be so dependent on this quantity of players bouncing back from failure, but that's where we are at.

If things don't break the right way more often than not within this group, and especially if the Big Three can't hold up, it's all too easy to see things really going south for this offense. 

Pulling for the underdogs
Among the players who will open the season on the Twins' active roster, you have the following:

• Gasper, who is still searching for his first major-league hit at age 29 after finally breaking through with the Red Sox late last year, following 1,600 plate appearances in the minors. He survived a nasty collision that required six stitches at the end of spring, but he made it. 
• DaShawn Keirsey Jr., a 28-year-old outfielder who also has barely tasted the big leagues. It looked like his chance may never come, but he got called up last September out of necessity and made enough of an impression to stick around for a more extended look here in 2025.
• Randy Dobnak, who was the OG underdog tale six years ago when he first arrived in the majors as an undrafted former independent-league pitcher. He started a playoff game, made the Opening Day roster in consecutive seasons, and even earned himself a nice contract extension. Then, in 2021, it all fell apart for Dobnak, who's mostly been out of sight since then. Now he gets one final opportunity to find redemption, starting out as a long reliever in the bullpen.

Read more: Have the Twins Found Their Next Cult Hero in Mickey Gasper?  

Sale of the franchise looms overhead
The pending potential sale of the Twins franchise continues to cast a shadow over everything happening on the field. This talented and star-laden roster was given the short shrift for a second straight offseason thanks to an ownership that decided they no longer want to seriously invest. 

News that the franchise was being put for sale by the Pohlad family was met by relief and borderline jubilation from a frustrated fan base. Throughout much of the offseason there was optimism that a new owner could be announced by Opening Day, but Justin Ishbia's gut-punch abandonment of his bid erased all momentum and now there is no resolution in sight. 

If this team gets off to a bad start, I loathe to think about the rancor and bad vibes that will fester from a certain contingent of fans, with ownership conveying such a low level of commitment. But I guess that's preferable to the apathy that will set in more broadly among Minnesota sports fans. The Twins need to find success on the field, or find a new owner, or both. The alternative scenario is exceedingly grim.

Nick's Picks for the 2025 Season
To close out my position preview, here are my predictions for Twins MVP, best pitcher, top rookie, and comeback player of the year (so many options for that one). I'd love to hear yours in the comments. Let's get this season rolling!

• Twins MVP: Byron Buxton
• Best Pitcher: Griffin Jax
• Top Rookie: Luke Keaschall
• Comeback Player: Edouard Julien

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[Mark G]

Wow, that was a lot to take in; thanks for the article Nick.

I know the difference between good and great, but there is also a difference between good and, let's just say, pretty good.  84-78, which is what FanGraphs' is saying, to me is pretty good, but not good or great, hell, it is only 2 more wins than last years collapse.  I think we have the potential to be good, even 88-90 wins good.  Great?  I know this is subjective, but to me 93 or 94 on up fits into the great category, and I don't see us there, although, as always, I can be educated.  😉

As for today, we have the potential to go 162-0, so until that is no longer possible I am going to dream. 🫠

[blindeke]

Really hard to get exited about this season, but who knows? The Twins seem to always do best when expectations are low.

[Whitey333]

Very good article.  Although I try to be optimistic regarding the Twins it's not easy.  Yes they could be good and they could also be bad.  I'm sure hoping for the good.  IMO they need a good start through April.  Getting off to s bad, slow, or mediocre start could really kill any kind of enthusiasm.  Plus the Twins play boring, undisciplined baseball too much of the time.  Go Twins!!

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, Mark G said:

Wow, that was a lot to take in; thanks for the article Nick.

I know the difference between good and great, but there is also a difference between good and, let's just say, pretty good.  84-78, which is what FanGraphs' is saying, to me is pretty good, but not good or great, hell, it is only 2 more wins than last years collapse.  I think we have the potential to be good, even 88-90 wins good.  Great?  I know this is subjective, but to me 93 or 94 on up fits into the great category, and I don't see us there, although, as always, I can be educated.  😉

As for today, we have the potential to go 162-0, so until that is no longer possible I am going to dream. 🫠

I think this is well said, and where I'm at as well. I think there's a chance things come together and they can get up towards that 88-90 win mark, and that's a good team. I wouldn't bet on it, but there's a chance. I think they're in the same 84-87 win range I thought they were in going into last year. Which, I agree, is more of a "pretty good" range. 

But it's opening day and surprises happen every year. Maybe we'll all be surprised and somebody in the central actually will be great. And maybe it'll be our favorite team.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great article Nick. Thanks. I predict MVP is C-4; Best pitcher is Lopez; Top Rookie: Gasper; Comeback player: Miranda

[Major League Ready]

They look like a good not great team to me but here is why I think they could be more than just good.  For starters, Nick lead in to this article reminding us this tear was very good for a good part of last year.  This is a good reason for optimism.

There are also some guys that I might have a bit of a homer view of but Walner seems like a guy that could step up to be one of the best bats in the league.  The other guy I really believe has more to offer is Trevor Larnach and both of these guys looked quite good the 2nd half of last year.  Bader won’t take Abs away from these guys against RHP because one of them is the DH against RHP.

Then, we have Ty Fance.  I know it’s just spring training but her was our best hitter this spring by a considerable margin.  Is it crazy to believe he has made a sustainable adjustment?  IDK but that would be a huge boost nobody is banking on.

In the “it wouldn’t surprise me category”, I thought Zebby Mathews looked fantastic this spring.  I could see him having an impact in the 2nd half.  That moves Paddack to a BP role and gives us even more depth.  If Paddack is doing so well we don’t want to move him, that’s a great problem to have.   I also would not be surprised if Louie Varland turned out to be this year’s Cole Sands.  

My total wildcard is Connor Prielipp.  I loved the pick when they made it and have hoped for him to get healthy ever year.  I sure would love to see that one come together.

All of this stuff will make for a very fun year of Twin’s baseball if it comes together reasonably well.
 

[Doctor Wu]

I'm always hopeful, if even optimistic about the Twins when each season starts. On paper we have the makings of a very good team. Hopefully health and productivity prevail and we can at least win the division. Gotta believe!

[Squirrel]

I think they have a decent team. And I think if the injuries can stay minimal, they have a shot. That’s about as much prognosticating I can muster. Ask me in October. 🙂

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that they are a good team, which I guess we're saying is 88 wins or so.  They could be better than that -- you never know, but 88 wins will probably win the division and certainly get into the playoffs.  From there, I'm optimistic, because again, you never know.  Punch the ticket to get into the playoffs and sometimes magic happens.  The Rangers won a WS championship a couple of years ago with a team that was just good, not great.  The 87 Twins were really only "pretty good" and the stars lined up to win it all that year.  Let's play some baseball!!

[LambchoP]

As usual, it will all come down to health. All you've got to do these days is MAKE the postseason and then anything can happen :) Happy opening day!

[Twins GFP]

I can't remember the last time this team had such a huge range of win possibilities.  It would not surprise me if this team won 92 games.  It would not surprise me if this team won 72 games.  Questionable health of your stars and inconsistent performance from your youth is a bad combination.

As the saying goes: everybody wins 60, everybody loses 60, its the other 42 games that make or break you. (We can thank LAD and CWS for ruining this quote).

[Danchat]

Is Cleveland really only at 22% of making the playoffs? Feels like we underestimate them year after year and they always overachieve. 

[tony&rodney]

85 wins seems fair. There are some prime players, good players, and some prospects that could lead the team to an AL Central Division crown and more. The Twins have a number of variables that can affect the end product. Health is the most obvious concern, but player usage could be involved in game outcomes as well. The Twins have been very committed to playing their newly signed role players. Formerly it was Gallo, Margot, Farmer, etc. We can hope for the best from France, Gasper, and Bader but how often will these players resemble past signees? The wild card can be the inclusion of significant rookie talent. Can Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp or others earn important game time and plate appearances to make valuable contributions to the team this year? Will they be given opportunities when the time calls for it?

I'm pretty excited for the possibilities but apprehensive about the style of play and management of the roster. Baseball is the longest season in North American sports which means equilibrium, patience and faith is necessary to keep up with all of the twists and turns in the 162 game season. Good luck to all the players and fans. Go Twins.

[DannySD]

The optimist in me says:
- Most well-rounded team in the division
- 4 dark horse Cy Young candidates (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Jax)
- Miranda has been as productive as Royce, and as good defensively
- AAA rotation other teams would kill for
- The AL is weak, the Yankees will finish 4th in the East and miss the postseason
- The Twins have the talent to beat any AL team in a postseason series

And the flip side:
- Infield defense will be bad (Until Lee and Keashall are playing regularly)
- They'll try to hit too many home runs
- 425 million is a pretty big number
- If Twins.tv doesn't bring in enough revenue, a sell-off could be looming
- Injuries have already been mentioned a few times, right?

[SteveLV]

What Squirrel said.

Meh team, slightly above average. On paper, not competitive with the truly good teams.

[PatPfund]

I think the rotation will be very strong, and the lineup will be better than last year's (which still finished 10th overall in MLB if I remember correctly). (Santana was great defensively at 1B, but his O was average for 1B overall, and included some awful stretches).  I'm thinking mid-90s for wins and a division title.

I like your award picks, but my first two would be... MVP: Correa (because with Lee out there really isn't a backup plan; Carlos HAS to be healthy for most of the year for the team to thrive, while there are backup plans for Buxton). Best Pitcher: Lopez (because I'm counting on the rotation to be like a couple years ago, and once you put a dominant starter, or two, or three out there, it is tough to take any bullpen arm over them).

[UK Twin]

I've got a feeling Wallner will have a big year. He'll still K a lot and his BA may well be lower than .250 but can see him smashing 40 HR's and driving in over 100. I like the fact that the Twins have him batting lead off as well. Phillies do it with Schwarber and it seems to work for them.

Encouraged by France's strong ST as well. Could turn out to be a huge bargain. 

Twins haven't announced who's going to start in game's 2 and 3 yet - presumably it will be Ryan and Ober, just don't know which way round. Pitching should be a real strength this year.

[bean5302]

20 minutes ago, DannySD said:

...4 dark horse Cy Young candidates (Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Jax)...

Don't forget about Dobnak and Blewett.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

43 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

85 wins seems fair. There are some prime players, good players, and some prospects that could lead the team to an AL Central Division crown and more. The Twins have a number of variables that can affect the end product. Health is the most obvious concern, but player usage could be involved in game outcomes as well. The Twins have been very committed to playing their newly signed role players. Formerly it was Gallo, Margot, Farmer, etc. We can hope for the best from France, Gasper, and Bader but how often will these players resemble past signees? The wild card can be the inclusion of significant rookie talent. Can Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Connor Prielipp or others earn important game time and plate appearances to make valuable contributions to the team this year? Will they be given opportunities when the time calls for it?

I'm pretty excited for the possibilities but apprehensive about the style of play and management of the roster. Baseball is the longest season in North American sports which means equilibrium, patience and faith is necessary to keep up with all of the twists and turns in the 162 game season. Good luck to all the players and fans. Go Twins.

The most important game of the year will be played today.  Each game is the most important game of the year.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, tarheeltwinsfan said:

The most important game of the year will be played today.  Each game is the most important game of the year.

Yes and if Vazquez, Gasper, Keirsey Jr., or Bader are in the starting lineup versus Sonny Gray today Baldelli may not share that view.

[UK Twin]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes and if Vazquez, Gasper, Keirsey Jr., or Bader are in the starting lineup versus Sonny Gray today Baldelli may not share that view.

Bader is!

[jorgenswest]

2 minutes ago, UK Twin said:

Bader is!

I would have started Keirsey over Bader and Julien over Castro though I acknowledge that Bader and Castro are much better with the glove.

[Senior Softball Guy]

Bold prediction: Both Bader and Gasper will get more pinch hits than Margot!

[bean5302]

The big 3 are not MVP Caliber players or anywhere close to it. Even if they were healthy, they're no where close. The Twins playoff status probably depends on the other AL Central teams.

The Twins look to be a team better built to make the playoffs than advance yet again. I feel this team is trying the same tried and failed philosophy they've had for 15+ years. A rotation which consists of the top 3 all being good rather than anybody great with two very low ceiling or retread types at the back. A position player roster of no truly elite players, and mostly guys who are borderline every day players. It's not as if the Twins are outright "bad" at any positions, they're just lacking the high ceiling at many spots. The bullpen looks to be formidable, but Baldelli's tendencies could easily lead to overwork and collapse when the team needs them most.

Twins MVP: Matt Wallner
Top WAR Pitcher: Pablo Lopez
Top Rookie: Luke Keaschall
Comeback Player: Royce Lewis
 

[jmlease1]

I think this is a good Twins team. Quite a few things need to go disastrously wrong for it to be a bad team; even with the early infield injuries the team hasn't exhausted its depth yet, none of the injuries are looking that serious (it's not like anyone is lost for the season, and with all of them we should be thinking weeks rather than months, with Lewis potentially being the exception, but even there the odds are good that he'll be back in May, not June or July) and we also still have reinforcements in the minors that have potential to be real contributors: Keaschall might need time to get his arm in shape, but his bat looks ready. Rodriguez is rehabbing, but his bat is tremendous. And maybe the Sire of Ft Myers is your breakout guy this year? the rotation looks good and deep (and there's experience there too) from the jump, with real options should anyone falter or get hurt. The bullpen has some injuries, but also still looks deep and talented.

The infield defense is a bit of a concern; outside of Correa and the catchers, everyone is average at best, poor at worst and likely below average until Lee gets back. the OF defense isn't bad; Larnach is more than solid when he's not battling turf toe, Buxton is still excellent, Bader is strong, and Wallner has the arm to be a threat. Kiersey gives them even more late inning defense.

Not a lot of big holes? I think the biggest concern is what's the upside for the lineup? Is there enough there even if everyone is healthy? if we get first half Miranda & Jeffers, and 2022 France with a little more from Larnach the floor goes up pretty fast.

there are a lot of players I'm excited to watch on this team. Lot of guys that are easy to root for. Healthy Buxton is one of the most fun players I've ever seem in my entire life, and I'm getting old, so I've seen a lot of them. the starters are pretty fun. there are young guys to root for a breakout.

[Blyleven2011]

Has Rocco seen the light ...

If he continue managing ( if you can call it that ) the way he has the twins will be pretenders and not contenders  ...

If Rocco can deviate from his past managing and not be so predictable the twins will have a chance to win the AL Central  , if not , I'm not expecting the twins to be contenders ...

The talent is definitely there in the pitching , lineup has no consistency in hitting  , could some be comeback players and improve the twins chances  , yes they could ...

They have to take the field and come to play , will they come to play with a spark or killer instinct , we have new hitting coaches so maybe the hitters will adjust to a situation and drive runners in scoring position in with no outs ...

Let's go twins,  2025 season is here and let's play good exciting baseball  ...

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

It's opening day. Time for optimism! A lot went wrong for the Twins in the first half last year and they still found themselves 17 games over .500 before that awful Sunday in Texas sent the season on a downward spiral. If they can avoid being without Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Jax and Duran for extended periods, then I think they have a ceiling of 90 wins and I think that's enough to win the division.

[Unwinder]

I've decided to throw caution to the wind and believe in these Twins. The worst thing that can happen is that I spend a few months excited and then get disappointed. There's no advantage to me in getting disappointed in advance.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Yes and if Vazquez, Gasper, Keirsey Jr., or Bader are in the starting lineup versus Sonny Gray today Baldelli may not share that view.

Today's game still counts as much as any game in September. I really used to enjoy watching Sonny Gray pitch. Up , down, inside, outside, slow, slower, move to the left, move to the right. The man knows how to pitch.