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Revisiting 2024
In 2024, the Guardians won their fifth division crown in nine seasons, with 92 wins under first-year manager Stephen Vogt. They earned themselves a bye in the AL Wild Card round, but after winning a fun series against the Detroit Tigers in the Division Series, the New York Yankees made easy work of them in the American League Championship Series. An organization that’s long been known for their pitching development deployed a starting rotation that fell short of that standard, ranking in the bottom third in many categories.
On the other hand, their bullpen transcended the standard. They were arguably the best relief corps in baseball. At the plate, their lineup was top-heavy, led by the usual suspects (José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, and Steven Kwan) and surprising production from David Fry (128 OPS+) and Will Brennan (97 OPS+). Unfortunately, after that, the offensive output was pretty bleak, led by second basemen Andrés Giménez who produced an 82 OPS+ and is no longer with the team. Will their starting rotation return to form? Can their offense survive losing fan favorite and slugger Naylor? Let’s dive in.
The Rotation
As was the case last year (and will be the case for years to come), Tanner Bibee headlines the rotation for the Guardians. The 25-year-old had a solid 3.56 FIP and 20.1% K-BB rate in 2024, and PECOTA projects more of the same this season. Behind him, they’ll start the season with Ben Lively, Gavin Williams, Luis L.L. Oritz, and Triston McKenzie, with Williams being the only one of those projected to be average or better. They’re anticipating help, in the form of former ace Shane Bieber returning from Tommy John surgery sometime during the season. They also made a sneaky move by signing former Baltimore Orioles ace John Means to a one-year, incentive-laden deal, although he’s not expected to return until August at the earliest. Foor what was formerly a deep pitching pipeline, there isn’t much for help behind the seven names listed above if things go sideways; the bullpen is going to need to carry the pitching staff.
The Bullpen
Living up to their reputation, the bullpen is once again projected to be very good. It may fall short of “elite”, and may not be the best in the division, but it features six players who are projected to be above-average contributors. The group is headlined by one of the best closers in the history of baseball, Emmanuel Clase, and offseason acquisition Paul Sewald (coupled with 2024 standouts Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis) figures to bridge the gap between him and the low-leverage relievers. Of that group, Tim Herrin and Andrew Walters show the depth of the bullpen, as they are projected for above-average seasons despite being one of the first options to relieve a starter. More than in years past, this group will need to carry the pitching staff if the Guardians hope to play baseball in October.
The Infield
The Naylor name lives on for the sixth consecutive season, but it will be backstop Bo Naylor carrying the figurative torch, as Josh was sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old catcher has struggled at the plate, especially with contact, which is also the case for his backup, Austin Hedges. While Naylor's one of the best framers in the game, his defense overall grades out pretty poorly. That said, he's still developing and past scouting reports were pretty high on the offensive profile and thought the defense would be passable. We’ll see if he can make strides in 2025.
The Guardians will have new faces on the right side of the diamond, as fan favorite and former Minnesota Twins first baseman Carlos Santana will be replacing the elder Naylor brother. The 39-year-old looks to continue his resurgence after a Gold Glove performance and his best offensive output since 2019. For what it's worth, PECOTA projects him to produce slightly above the league average. He’ll be backed by Kyle Manzardo, who will serve as the team's primary DH and is projected to be a slightly above-average producer at the plate, too. Replacing the Gold Glove winner Giménez at the keystone will be some mix of Juan Brito, Angel Martinez, Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneeman, and maybe even 2024 top pick Travis Bazzana. Everyone but Brito is projected to produce well below average at the plate, and even the former top-100 prospect (Brito) is projected for a 90 DRC+. To make matters worse, none of those players provide plus defense. This is still a very young group, with Schneeman being the elder statesman at 28 years old. Like catcher, it's another spot in the lineup where the Guardians need their player development to come through.
On the left side of the infield are two players with plus gloves, in Brayan Rocchio and their superstar, Ramírez. Rocchio, who is just 24 years old, will get the lion's share of the work at shortstop, with Arias acting as the primary backup. Like the group of second basemen, Rocchio is projected to produce well below average at the plate, but at least he provides solid defense that saw him accrue a Fielding Run Value of 4 last year. We’re very familiar with Ramírez, who in 169 games against the Twins has a career .791 OPS with 24 home runs. The 32-year-old has received MVP votes in eight of 11 professional seasons, including five top-five finishes, and is projected to produce more of the same in 2025. The Guardians are young up the middle; they lost quite a bit when Giménez was traded. The vets of the infield will need to carry this group on both sides of the ball.
The Outfield
Kwan won a Gold Glove in 2024 while carrying a 124 OPS+, and is projected for more of the same in 2025. Trade deadline acquisition, Lane Thomas, will work as the primary center fielder and has a rather uninspiring profile. His arm and speed are his only plus tools, but he's largely graded out pretty poorly defensively and is projected to produce slightly worse than average at the plate. He has low OBP skills but decent pop. Right field will be a lot like second base, where many players will contribute, but Brennan and Jhonkensy Noel are projected to be the two primary options. Brennan doesn't have one standout skill, but is solid across the board. Noel, nicknamed “Big Christmas”, has a plus power tool, with an aggressive approach at the plate. There isn't much depth behind the four names listed above, so an injury would likely open the door for top prospect Chase DeLauter to make his big-league debut sometime in 2025.
Summary
It's pretty clear to see why PECOTA sees an 11-win drop from 2024 to 2025. The losses of Naylor and Giménez are going to be felt, especially at the plate. While the bullpen remains good, the rotation is surrounded by uncertainty and there's not a lot of optimism they’ll improve much from 2024. While 2025 may not be their year, they are carrying quite a few players in the mid- or early 20s, and have one of the better farm systems in baseball. The ability for the team to remain competitive and possibly become contenders in the near future will hinge on their player development staff, but I wouldn't expect them to really be a threat to the Twins in 2025.
What are your projections for the Guardians? Do you think their young talent can come through? Join the conversation in the comments!
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