American League Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

Revisiting 2024
The 2024 Royals returned to the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series nine years earlier. The team, led by budding superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., won 86 games, finishing 6.5 games behind the division champion Cleveland Guardians. After a two-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card round, they lost the Division Series to the New York Yankees in four games. They boasted one of the best starting rotations in baseball and an above-average offense, but struggled once their starters turned the ball over to the bullpen. Outside of two offseason additions, they’ll be running it back with the same group in 2025. 

The Pitching Staff
The Royals starting rotation is headlined by Cole Ragans, who finished fourth in the Cy Young race last season—two spots behind teammate Seth Lugo. PECOTA projects another Cy Young-caliber season for Ragans and some regression for Lugo, although the model still likes him to be above-average. Michael Wacha, meanwhile, is marked out as a candidate for regression, which you would have guessed even before opening the projections page. After the team traded away Brady Singer and lost Alec Marsh to shoulder soreness for all of spring training, the back end of the rotation will include Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic. Questions on the repeatability of impact seasons from Lugo and Wacha (plus uncertainty surrounding the back end of the rotation) explain why models are projecting fewer wins in 2025. Maybe the bullpen can make up the difference?

For a team that clearly needed to address the bullpen, they only made one meaningful move, signing Carlos Estévez away from the Philadelphia Phillies via free agency. The back of their bullpen looks great with Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Hunter Harvey getting the highest-leverage opportunities, but the bridge between that group and the rotation isn’t nearly as solid. PECOTA projects slightly above-average seasons from Sam Long and James McArthur, but it pretty quickly falls off after that. The Royals will consistently need six or more innings from their starters if they want to hit the over on their win projections.

The Infield
Somehow, someway, 13-year vet Salvador Perez played 91 games behind the dish last season and 158 total (including 24 at DH). He’ll cede more chest-protector time to Freddy Fermin, who projects to be a productive backstop, but PECOTA still has it as only a 60-40 split in favor of Fermin. When Perez is not behind the plate or serving as the DH, he’ll provide rest to Vinnie Pasquantino at first. The 27-year-old lived up to his prospect pedigree last season, posting a 111 OPS+ and finishing in the 81st percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) at the position. PECOTA likes Pasquantino to continue growing into his role as the Royals’ long-term first baseman and become one of the top first basemen in the league.

Up the middle, Witt has done what Pasquantino is looking to do. He’s an established superstar in the league. In only his third big-league season, he was an All-Star; finished 2nd in MVP voting; and won both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger Award. He’s going to be a thorn in the Twins' side for years to come. Across from Witt at the keystone will be a Twins-esque merry-go-round, with Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India (acquired in the Singer trade), and Nick Loftin. Much of that same group is also projected to get time at the hot corner, as well. India, who is expected to DH a fair amount, brings good on-base skills and a little pop to the Royals lineup, which finished in the bottom third of the league in both OBP and slugging average last year. Massey is expected to provide above-average production, while Loftin and Garcia are glove-first options likely coming off the bench.

The Outfield
The Royals’ outfield is undoubtedly the weakest offensive position group, with only one above-average defender in center fielder Kyle Isbel. Unfortunately, Isbel doesn’t have the bat that MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe do, and they don’t have the glove that Isbel does. The best tool among the starters is Isbel’s glove and, at the plate, both Melendez and Renfroe are projected to be slightly above-average contributors—albeit while carrying a sub-.300 OBP and a .400(ish) SLG. Behind them will be the likes of the aforementioned Garcia, as well as Dairon Blanco, Drew Waters, and Joey Weimer. The Royals have tried to shore up this group by kicking the tires on Adam Duvall and Starling Marte, but obviously, nothing has come to fruition.

Summary
Despite some of the best top-end talent in the league, the Royals don’t have the role players nor the depth to repeat their surprising success. For a team with a limited number of movable assets, it’s a bit shocking that their most significant move of the offseason was to rob Paul (trading Singer; weakening the rotation) to pay Peter (acquiring India to improve the lineup). With virtually no bench, no impact prospects who are close to major-league ready, and one of the worst farm systems in baseball, the Royals are walking on thin ice. If I were a betting man, I’d bet the under on 83.5 wins in 2025.

What are your thoughts on the Royals for 2025? Join the conversation in the comments!