American League Central Preview: Kansas City Royals

[Matthew Lenz]

The Kansas City Royals are expected to be in the mix for the American League Central title in 2025. Projected to win 81 games and finish second, they’ll look to prove people wrong by winning their first division title since 2015. Do they have what it takes to supplant the favored Twins? Let’s dive in.

Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Revisiting 2024
The 2024 Royals returned to the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series nine years earlier. The team, led by budding superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., won 86 games, finishing 6.5 games behind the division champion Cleveland Guardians. After a two-game sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the AL Wild Card round, they lost the Division Series to the New York Yankees in four games. They boasted one of the best starting rotations in baseball and an above-average offense, but struggled once their starters turned the ball over to the bullpen. Outside of two offseason additions, they’ll be running it back with the same group in 2025. 

The Pitching Staff
The Royals starting rotation is headlined by Cole Ragans, who finished fourth in the Cy Young race last season—two spots behind teammate Seth Lugo. PECOTA projects another Cy Young-caliber season for Ragans and some regression for Lugo, although the model still likes him to be above-average. Michael Wacha, meanwhile, is marked out as a candidate for regression, which you would have guessed even before opening the projections page. After the team traded away Brady Singer and lost Alec Marsh to shoulder soreness for all of spring training, the back end of the rotation will include Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic. Questions on the repeatability of impact seasons from Lugo and Wacha (plus uncertainty surrounding the back end of the rotation) explain why models are projecting fewer wins in 2025. Maybe the bullpen can make up the difference?

For a team that clearly needed to address the bullpen, they only made one meaningful move, signing Carlos Estévez away from the Philadelphia Phillies via free agency. The back of their bullpen looks great with Estévez, Lucas Erceg, and Hunter Harvey getting the highest-leverage opportunities, but the bridge between that group and the rotation isn’t nearly as solid. PECOTA projects slightly above-average seasons from Sam Long and James McArthur, but it pretty quickly falls off after that. The Royals will consistently need six or more innings from their starters if they want to hit the over on their win projections.

The Infield
Somehow, someway, 13-year vet Salvador Perez played 91 games behind the dish last season and 158 total (including 24 at DH). He’ll cede more chest-protector time to Freddy Fermin, who projects to be a productive backstop, but PECOTA still has it as only a 60-40 split in favor of Fermin. When Perez is not behind the plate or serving as the DH, he’ll provide rest to Vinnie Pasquantino at first. The 27-year-old lived up to his prospect pedigree last season, posting a 111 OPS+ and finishing in the 81st percentile in Outs Above Average (OAA) at the position. PECOTA likes Pasquantino to continue growing into his role as the Royals’ long-term first baseman and become one of the top first basemen in the league.

Up the middle, Witt has done what Pasquantino is looking to do. He’s an established superstar in the league. In only his third big-league season, he was an All-Star; finished 2nd in MVP voting; and won both a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger Award. He’s going to be a thorn in the Twins' side for years to come. Across from Witt at the keystone will be a Twins-esque merry-go-round, with Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India (acquired in the Singer trade), and Nick Loftin. Much of that same group is also projected to get time at the hot corner, as well. India, who is expected to DH a fair amount, brings good on-base skills and a little pop to the Royals lineup, which finished in the bottom third of the league in both OBP and slugging average last year. Massey is expected to provide above-average production, while Loftin and Garcia are glove-first options likely coming off the bench.

The Outfield
The Royals’ outfield is undoubtedly the weakest offensive position group, with only one above-average defender in center fielder Kyle Isbel. Unfortunately, Isbel doesn’t have the bat that MJ Melendez and Hunter Renfroe do, and they don’t have the glove that Isbel does. The best tool among the starters is Isbel’s glove and, at the plate, both Melendez and Renfroe are projected to be slightly above-average contributors—albeit while carrying a sub-.300 OBP and a .400(ish) SLG. Behind them will be the likes of the aforementioned Garcia, as well as Dairon Blanco, Drew Waters, and Joey Weimer. The Royals have tried to shore up this group by kicking the tires on Adam Duvall and Starling Marte, but obviously, nothing has come to fruition.

Summary
Despite some of the best top-end talent in the league, the Royals don’t have the role players nor the depth to repeat their surprising success. For a team with a limited number of movable assets, it’s a bit shocking that their most significant move of the offseason was to rob Paul (trading Singer; weakening the rotation) to pay Peter (acquiring India to improve the lineup). With virtually no bench, no impact prospects who are close to major-league ready, and one of the worst farm systems in baseball, the Royals are walking on thin ice. If I were a betting man, I’d bet the under on 83.5 wins in 2025.

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What are your thoughts on the Royals for 2025? Join the conversation in the comments!

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[Karbo]

The starting pitching scares me a little, but between Witt and long time Twin killer Perez, they still look formidable to me.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think they are going to be good, just not good enough yet.  Last year, I think the Royals benefited from everything coming together at the right time.  This year with a little less luck, I think they are a candidate from some regression -- not down to 70 wins, but probably down to only 80 or so.  They are developing a good core and in a couple of years, look out!

[tony&rodney]

Will Jac Caglianone jump all the way to Kansas City? 

The Royals do lack depth and their outfield remains weak. However, Kansas City has a good infield led by a top 5 MLB star and Salvy showing the way how to play the game. I'm not going to underestimate KC.

[Road trip]

A lot of things broke right for KC last year.  Lugo had a career year.  Ragans went from good to great.  Whitt went from good to HOF level great.  Perez won his bet vs Father Time.

If any one of those players fail to repeat their performance the Royals should take a small step back, as the squad talent level is thin outside their top performers.

If any two of those players regress, the Royals could take a big step back. 

Whitt's great, but is he really gonna put up a 9.4 WAR season again? (for context, I believe only Rod Carew in '77 has ever had a season that good for the Twins)  Did Lugo suddenly learn to pitch at age 34?  Is Perez really ageless?  

I'm willing to bet that 2 of the 4 regress, and the Royals finish with about 79 wins.

I'm far more afraid of Detroit and Cleveland.

[chpettit19]

Bobby Witt Jr is in the in the discussion for the best non-Shohei player in baseball. Their rotation should be solid. But I think they take a step back. They lead the AL in BA w/RISP last year. I don't think they're going to hit .282 w/RISP again. I don't think they're going to pitch quite as well. I think they'll be in the upper 70s or lower 80s for wins.

[mikelink45]

I don't know.  Last year I expected so much from the Twins and they disappointed yet we act like we are the class of the division.  KC has good starters and some good bats.  I do not know if it is enough, but I also don't know if France can be as good as his ST stats seem to indicate - or will he be as bad as the last two years.  Vinnie wins this comparison.

Out 2B is a mess and KC now looks to India who has a better track record than our hopefuls. 

I will take Perez over our catchers.

I will take Witt over Correa.  

Our OF looks better than theirs by quite a bit, but is Larnach's ability really on the rise and Bader is like Isbel - all glove/no bat.

Right now 3B is a questionable position for both teams.

Our BP looks to rate the best, but they said that last year too.  Let's see, but never-the-less it is better than KC's after the top three, but not better than KCs top three. 

And I know it is common to project regression, but why?  Is it because we want to have someone progress.  Right now Ragans and Lugo are the top 1-2 pitchers and the Wacha/Lorenzen spots match well with our Paddack/Richardson so Ober is the one who pushed us to the top, but not by much.  

As always injuries will determine a lot - as will midseason moves.  I can see both KC and MN battling it out. 

[bean5302]

Taking a look at their positions, many of their starters are only age 25-27 and could be expected to improve significantly at the plate this year, plus the addition of India to cover for OF weakness as the Royals version of Willi Castro. I think this year's Royals offense will be substantially better than last year.

Bubic is the dark horse of the rotation. He's been sitting at 92-94mph with his fastball this spring, building off his excellent results as a reliever last year. If he emerges as a mid/upper rotation arm for the Royals this year, they could have a dominant rotation.

I pick the Royals to win close to 90 games this year.

[twinzcynic]

I think one area the projection systems fall short when it comes to the Royals is not projecting in positive regression for Melendez and Garcia. Both of those guys have shown flashes of being impact players, and certainly are capable of putting it all together. 

Honestly, unless our big 3 SPs stay healthy all season, I fear we're heading towards another 4th place finish.

[sweetmusicviola16]

It is certainly understandable to be optimistic, but what makes the Twins the favorites of the Central? We feasted on weak teams in 2024 and were awful against the good ones. How was this fixed in the off-season. No difference maker was acquired. The main pieces switched out were, Santana gone and France in. Huge dropoff. Kepler gone and Bader in. This is a push imo. Kepler offers more offensively and Bader more on D. But Kepler is not a bad fielder. We are relying on guys like Lee and Larnach to be improved. Buxton and Correa to all of a sudden play 130-140 games. Lewis is already out. Do we see the 1st half AS in Castro or the second half dreg?  My optimism is hoping we can win 82 games again. Maybe all of the questions turn in our favor, but until then they are still questions.