Twins Need to Decenter Royce Lewis From Their Plans

[Cody Schoenmann]

After suffering another soft-tissue injury, the should-be star third baseman will begin his 2025 campaign on the 10-day injured list. Given his injury-prone nature, should the Twins stop planning on Royce Lewis being a primary offensive contributor?

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

On Sunday, Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis pulled up while running out a groundball to dep third base, in the second inning of a spring training exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox. Lewis underwent an MRI and was diagnosed with a "moderate" hamstring strain that will keep him out for Opening Day—and perhaps for the first month or more of the season. Those who follow the club have familiarized themselves with Lewis needing to miss time due to soft-tissue injuries. He's had four separate IL stints over the past two seasons, due to straining his quadriceps, adductor, hamstring, and oblique.

Lewis, 25, has blossomed into a core member of Minnesota's position player corps. He functions as a high-OBP, power-hitting cog in the middle of the club's lineup, alongside fellow above-average bats Matt Wallner, Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Trevor Larnach. However, his frequent, extended absences create a significant vacancy, forcing the club to provide ample plate appearances to role players like José Miranda, Willi Castro, and Austin Martin.

From a depth perspective, Minnesota is prepared to handle Lewis's current and potential future absences. As noted, Miranda and Castro possess the skillset necessary to fill the position for an extended stretch. Former top prospect Brooks Lee is an intriguing candidate to fill in at the position, too, though he could begin the season entrenched as the everyday second baseman. Since Lewis made his MLB debut in 2022, the Twins have rostered players like Miranda, Castro, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and others who could fill in at third base when the injury-prone young star missed time. However, their roster construction process was less about rostering viable Lewis replacements and more about overall infield flexibility.

Minnesota’s ability to succeed in 2025 will depend on Correa, Buxton, and Lewis’s ability to stay healthy and perform at or above their career rates. Relying on Correa and Buxton is a sound decision. Despite missing significant time in recent seasons, the two can be trusted to perform at an above-average rate in the field and at the plate when healthy. Just as importantly, the team has no choice. They've already made big, long-term financial commitments to both Correa and Buxton. Given the lack of durability for all three players, though, it's hard to justify making a third investment (even if it's mostly of playing time, for now) of the same kind.

It's also easier to accept Buxton and Correa's injury frustrations, because they're such well-rounded players: good hitters and strong defenders at premium positions. On the other hand, Lewis has long possessed limited range and a lackluster glove in the hot corner. Still, the club could always count on him to thrive at the plate in limited sample sizes—until the second half of last season. 

Over 226 plate appearances from Jul. 26 through Sept. 29, Lewis hit .207/.270/.350, with 42 hits, 11 doubles, six home runs, a 24.8% strikeout rate, and 74 wRC+. The 25-year-old’s underwhelming performance at the plate resulted in a -0.77 Win Probability Added and being a driving force in the lineup’s late-season collapse. Since he has netted only 605 total plate appearances heading into his fourth major-league season, it’s nearly impossible to know what type of contributor Lewis is. Is he the star who led the organization to their first postseason victory in 19 years; the middling bat who performed at a well-below-league average rate (particularly against same-handed pitching) for months last season; or something in-between?

Given his age, limited plate appearances, and substantial injury history, it would be malpractice to provide a declarative answer. Twins Territory has grown enamored with Lewis and his potential. But at times, it feels like that’s all it is: potential. His exceptionality exists more in theory than in reality. Acknowledging this uncertainty and his inability to stay on the field, Lewis must be decentered from the Twins' plans. Instead of penciling him as the everyday third baseman, the club should instead treat any contribution they receive from him as a welcome bonus, and make him win a spot (third base, second base, or potentially first base/designated hitter) when he performs at an average-plus rate offensively or demonstrates some semblance of durability. 

Minnesota’s core position players are Correa, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Castro, and Ryan Jeffers. They have earned that honor by consistently performing well and/or providing volume, versatility and defensive value. High-upside players like Lee, Miranda, Edouard Julien, Luke Keaschall, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Walker Jenkins could join the mix soon. The Twins' position-player talent pool is rich. Obviously, Lewis could be a key figure in that group. When performing at his best, he is a dynamic power bat and a genuine difference-maker. Alas, he's rarely performing at all, and even when he is, it's not always at his best.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

This is a tough article to read, but it needed to be said.

[LambchoP]

I think a mid-market team like the Twins can probably rely on one, maybe two injury prone guys in the lineup. Three, definitely not. If every single year we have Lewis, Buxton and Correa missing half the season it's going to cripple the rest of the roster. I say get whatever production we can out of Lewis until he's a free agent while also looking for our third baseman of the future .

[Patzky]

Considering that Lee is now dealing with back pain again, he's likely going to be in the same category. It's nice to have dependable moving parts.

[chpettit19]

I'm not sure what the suggestion is here. He's an arbitration player playing on a cheap deal. They haven't extended him. I'm not aware of any rumors of them trying to extend him. Fans have become quite upset that the team has had the nerve to move him positions in season (for 2 games) and had him practice playing another infield position over the offseason. The team has multiple other young players ready to play his position.

When Royce is healthy Royce is going to play because he has the potential to be an MVP level bat. When he's hurt he isn't going to play. I don't get what this article is suggesting changing. What else are they supposed to be doing? They aren't trading away Lee or Castro or Miranda because of Lewis. They aren't extending Lewis for 10 years. They're going year by year through arbitration and playing him when he's healthy. What else should they do?

[Parfigliano]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure what the suggestion is here. He's an arbitration player playing on a cheap deal. They haven't extended him. I'm not aware of any rumors of them trying to extend him. Fans have become quite upset that the team has had the nerve to move him positions in season (for 2 games) and had him practice playing another infield position over the offseason. The team has multiple other young players ready to play his position.

When Royce is healthy Royce is going to play because he has the potential to be an MVP level bat. When he's hurt he isn't going to play. I don't get what this article is suggesting changing. What else are they supposed to be doing? They aren't trading away Lee or Castro or Miranda because of Lewis. They aren't extending Lewis for 10 years. They're going year by year through arbitration and playing him when he's healthy. What else should they do?

Get Lewis into a physical training program with a balance of weight training and stretching type activity.  

[Doctor Gast]

IMO you're off on your thinking on who should be core & who's promising. But should we deprioritize Lewis from the Twins? The answer is absolutely not! IMO there are players who shouldn't be prioritized.  but Lewis isn't one of them. From '21 when he had his 1st ACL he played 0 games, '22 his 2nd ACL he played a few games. Now after his ACL surgeries playing 3B, in '23 he played around 1/3 of all the games maybe more, '24 he played around 1/2 of all the games maybe more. So why shouldn't he be deprioritized? #1 his intangibles, knowledge of the game, character, leadership & motivation to win & be better. #2 his production especially in important games, when it matters. #3 Further away from his ACL injuries, he'll become stronger with fewer & less severe soft-tissue issues as he is trending. I expect him to play over 100 games this season. I rebuke the idea that he's injury-prone. As long as he's not playing OF, he should be fine & continue to come up big when we need him the most.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Get Lewis into a physical training program with a balance of weight training and stretching type activity.  

I am quite certain he does this. He's a professional athlete with hundreds of millions of dollars on the line. The Twins are a professional sports team with a lot invested in him. He's gone through 2 ACL rehabs. He didn't do those on his own. I'm pretty sure he's got some pretty smart people helping him when it comes to knowing how to train.

[Dave Borton]

Quote

Relying on Correa and Buxton is a sound decision. 

While I agree with the general tone of the article, I did find this statement shocking.

[tony&rodney]

Is this article as close as TD comes to telling the readers that the season may depend on 2023 Julien?

[LA Vikes Fan]

25 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Is this article as close as TD comes to telling the readers that the season may depend on 2023 Julien?

And Wallner, Larnach, and Miranda? It very well may be. 3 of those 4 have to step up for this team to be championship competitive. 

[ziggy]

A $2.00 trifecta bet on Lewis, Buxton and Correa all spending at least 20 days on the IL would pay the minimum pay out of $2.10.

 

They are all extradornially exceptional athletes but with that talent comes injuries.

[bean5302]

I suppose it depends on what a "core" player is considered. My definition for core wouldn't probably include guys who had a ceiling under 2.5 WAR so a guy like Larnach doesn't need to be in the conversation. Even with his bat being highly shielded from lefties, Larnach managed only 1.5 fWAR in 400 plate appearances. The "above average" bat is even a little in doubt as he'd never posted a wRC+ above 101 prior to last year. If that's "core" the team is weak.

Removing Lewis from core, but keeping Buxton as part of the core makes no sense to me, either. Buxton was horrible in 2023, generating only 0.6 fWAR with a wRC+ 97 season almost exclusively at DH. Buxton's just as injury prone as Lewis.

If core just means a player who is meeting expectations, and you expect more from Lewis... I guess.

[Guest]

Oh, c'mon....

[Karbo]

Further evidence that a move to 1st would be wise. He will go to the minors for rehab, and I hope they get him some time there. Less stress on his body.

[AceWrigley]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not sure what the suggestion is here. He's an arbitration player playing on a cheap deal. They haven't extended him. I'm not aware of any rumors of them trying to extend him. Fans have become quite upset that the team has had the nerve to move him positions in season (for 2 games) and had him practice playing another infield position over the offseason. The team has multiple other young players ready to play his position.

When Royce is healthy Royce is going to play because he has the potential to be an MVP level bat. When he's hurt he isn't going to play. I don't get what this article is suggesting changing. What else are they supposed to be doing? They aren't trading away Lee or Castro or Miranda because of Lewis. They aren't extending Lewis for 10 years. They're going year by year through arbitration and playing him when he's healthy. What else should they do?

Maybe the article should be titled:

"Twins Fans Need to Decenter Royce Lewis From Their Plans".

[AceWrigley]

I have to admit that I expect about 81 games (half a season) worth of playing time from each of the "Three Gimpateers". Anything more than that is gravy. Unfortunately in Correa's case he is highly paid for a full season's worth of action.

[Nashvilletwin]

It’s hard to keep up with the TD. One minute, player X is our future mainstay, the next he no longer has a future as a dependable Twin.  Player Y should be in St. Paul one minute and the next he will save our season. Player Z is now one of our cores, but yet in reality he can only be counted upon to play five innings because he’s really a platoon player (in Rocco’s eyes). Sheesh,  I’m getting whiplash. (And, btw, there are multiple Twins who fit each category, lol).

Yes, the potential for Lewis IS there. He’s a great kid too.  But let’s face it, at this point he is a well below average fielder as a third baseman and his bat, albeit occasionally remarkable in spurts, is inconsistent at best over a longer period. He’d probably be SO much better with 500 more ABs and 160 more innings under his belt. Sadly, though, his injuries compound this somewhat bleak assessment.

Get him healthy, give him as many innings and ABs as possible and see where it takes him.  I still believe in him. He can still be a mainstay (and fan favorite). 

[jkcarew]

Interesting that this article has never appeared regarding Buxton. Yet the club has been forced to play someone OTHER THAN Buxton in CF an average of 100 games per year during his career. WAY more Jake Cave and Michael Taylor than Byron Buxton. Meanwhile, Buxton has also been inferior to Lewis offensively.

CAREER Post-Season numbers:

Buxton: 7 PA; .286 OPS

Lewis: 26 PA; 1.119 OPS

[PatPfund]

With all due respect to the author (and I do have that respect), this is just goofy overthinking. Lewis is a freakin' unicorn hitter, and it's time to plan around him because of a pulled hammy and a slump? Seriously?

Some questions popped up while reading this like... How is Lewis just potential when he as already led us to a playoff series win? How many of those has Buxton led us to? (Oh wait, that would be zero.) How has Lewis had a "long" history of bad play at 3B when he doesn't have a "long" history at any position in MLB (and he was mostly a SS in the minors)? And side note question, wasn't Paparesta supposed to be some sort of expert at preventing soft tissue injuries? Anyone concerned that a prime fill-in mentioned is Brooks Lee who is battling another back incident? Or that Emma is hurt again? Or that Jenkins is hurt?

If the Brewers had listened to talk like this, they probably would have dumped that bum Molitor.

Look, I get the frustration, but any plans of post-season success almost certainly involve Lewis, If your goal is to scrape out a wild-card spot and first round exit, then plan around him.

[Twodogs]

36 minutes ago, Karbo said:

Further evidence that a move to 1st would be wise. He will go to the minors for rehab, and I hope they get him some time there. Less stress on his body.

But his quad and hammy injuries have occurred from running the bases?  So I'm not sure how standing around 1st vs standing around 3rd during a game really makes that big of a difference?  I mean when 1st basemen hold runners on they have to explode off of the base to get into fielding position every pitch.  At 3rd he just has to prep step on every pitch?  I mean they are both corner infield positions, not a huge difference in wear and tear.  Not the same a moving Mauer from behind the plate to 1st to save on wear and tear.  I mean maybe he should just go and DH if we are trying to save on wear and tear?

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I am quite certain he does this. He's a professional athlete with hundreds of millions of dollars on the line. The Twins are a professional sports team with a lot invested in him. He's gone through 2 ACL rehabs. He didn't do those on his own. I'm pretty sure he's got some pretty smart people helping him when it comes to knowing how to train.

I am 💯 % sure they are cutting edge smart but whatever program they have going… It isn't keeping Lewis healthy. 

[T.O.]

"He's had four separate IL stints over the past two seasons, due to straining his quadriceps, adductor, hamstring, and oblique."

It would seem Lewis' future as a regular starter is oblique.

I don't know how the Twin's can plan on him. The only thing left is plan around him.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

I am 💯 % sure they are cutting edge smart but whatever program they have going… It isn't keeping Lewis healthy. 

Such is life sometimes. The Rangers get 160 games a year out of Marcus Semien and 120 from Corey Seager. Royce Lewis can hit a baseball 450 feet and I can't. Genetics is a heck of a thing.

[bean5302]

49 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s hard to keep up with the TD. One minute, player X is our future mainstay, the next he no longer has a future as a dependable Twin.  Player Y should be in St. Paul one minute and the next he will save our season. Player Z is now one of our cores, but yet in reality he can only be counted upon to play five innings because he’s really a platoon player (in Rocco’s eyes). Sheesh,  I’m getting whiplash. (And, btw, there are multiple Twins who fit each category, lol)...

Check out hockeywilderness.com sometime, LOL. It's endless contradictions. On Monday morning the Wild are hopeless, doomed for all eternity, the team's strategy is flawed, the GM needs to be fired, and the owner should sell the team. On Monday night bit player a had a good game so the Wild are now serious threats for the Stanley Cup thanks to the super stud GM acquiring bit player A.

At least I don't have to read how a historically dirty Twins player tried to kill another player on the ice so they've got an unfair 8 game suspension! Oh the humanity!

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

Further evidence that a move to 1st would be wise. He will go to the minors for rehab, and I hope they get him some time there. Less stress on his body.

First base? The position that requires sudden, full out stretches in almost any direction after a quick sprint to the base? I'm not sure that's a good idea for a guy with hamstring and other soft tissue leg concerns. Actually, I think it's actually possibly the second worst position behind catcher for Royce Lewis.

[Danchat]

21 minutes ago, T.O. said:

It would seem Lewis' future as a regular starter is oblique.

Creative pun there!

[adorduan]

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO you're off on your thinking on who should be core & who's promising. But should we deprioritize Lewis from the Twins? The answer is absolutely not! IMO there are players who shouldn't be prioritized.  but Lewis isn't one of them. From '21 when he had his 1st ACL he played 0 games, '22 his 2nd ACL he played a few games. Now after his ACL surgeries playing 3B, in '23 he played around 1/3 of all the games maybe more, '24 he played around 1/2 of all the games maybe more. So why shouldn't he be deprioritized? #1 his intangibles, knowledge of the game, character, leadership & motivation to win & be better. #2 his production especially in important games, when it matters. #3 Further away from his ACL injuries, he'll become stronger with fewer & less severe soft-tissue issues as he is trending. I expect him to play over 100 games this season. I rebuke the idea that he's injury-prone. As long as he's not playing OF, he should be fine & continue to come up big when we need him the most.

You may rebuke the idea he's injury prone, but the facts show that he absolutely is..

[adorduan]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s hard to keep up with the TD. One minute, player X is our future mainstay, the next he no longer has a future as a dependable Twin.  Player Y should be in St. Paul one minute and the next he will save our season. Player Z is now one of our cores, but yet in reality he can only be counted upon to play five innings because he’s really a platoon player (in Rocco’s eyes). Sheesh,  I’m getting whiplash. (And, btw, there are multiple Twins who fit each category, lol).

Yes, the potential for Lewis IS there. He’s a great kid too.  But let’s face it, at this point he is a well below average fielder as a third baseman and his bat, albeit occasionally remarkable in spurts, is inconsistent at best over a longer period. He’d probably be SO much better with 500 more ABs and 160 more innings under his belt. Sadly, though, his injuries compound this somewhat bleak assessment.

Get him healthy, give him as many innings and ABs as possible and see where it takes him.  I still believe in him. He can still be a mainstay (and fan favorite). 

Gotta generate them clicks....

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

It’s hard to keep up with the TD. One minute, player X is our future mainstay, the next he no longer has a future as a dependable Twin.  Player Y should be in St. Paul one minute and the next he will save our season. Player Z is now one of our cores, but yet in reality he can only be counted upon to play five innings because he’s really a platoon player (in Rocco’s eyes). Sheesh,  I’m getting whiplash. (And, btw, there are multiple Twins who fit each category, lol).

I get it, but I would maintain that the difference between articles is actually TD doing a good job rather than a bad one by presenting different viewpoints about a subject and letting those things guide the discussion.  If they were just eternal pessimists or hopeless cheerleaders, that would be a much bigger problem in terms of honest journalism.  And, as Twins history has taught us, players do go from essential cog to part time player to out of baseball (and sometimes back and forth) pretty quickly.  It's not fun for fans or players, but it certainly happens all the time.

There are certainly articles that aren't very good or are just bad clickbait (I think that's the nature of the beast these days), but there are plenty that are filled with good information and analysis as well.  If people can have a reasonable (not without disagreement!) discussion, then that's the way people broaden their ideas and have stronger information to draw from when making their own decisions.