The 5 Most Encouraging Stats and Trends from Twins Spring Training So Far

[Nick Nelson]

From Brooks Lee's exit velocities to David Festa's walk rate, these are the potentially meaningful spring trends that should have Twins fans feeling excited.

Image courtesy of Chris Tilley, Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

We're a little over halfway through the six-week "marathon before the marathon" that is spring training. It's a well known truth that spring stats don't matter much, but at the same time, there are plenty of consequential developments at camp that can end up mattering very much. 

Here are five positive storylines that have caught my attention through the first three weeks of Twins spring training, all of which are strengthening my confidence in the team and its outlook for 2025.

Eight different players have started at DH. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are not among them.
The beginning of spring tends to bring a lot of optimism and platitudes, but actions are more indicative. While both Correa and Buxton arrived at camp raving about their physical conditions, the handling of these star players once the games started was going to tell the story. 

And that story has been: Correa and Buxton appear completely healthy, with no limitations or special restrictions. Both players were in the lineup for Minnesota's first spring game, batting second and third, playing shortstop and center. They've since been rotating into the lineup regularly, and it's noteworthy that Rocco Baldelli hasn't felt compelled to lighten either one's load with a "partial day off" at designated hitter. I don't take it to mean they'll never start at DH during the regular season, but this usage suggests Baldelli is feeling very good about the state of Correa's feet and Buxton's knee. 

Ty France is batting .550 with a team-leading 1.641 OPS.
Ample skepticism surrounded this scrap-heap signing, but France's performance in the Grapefruit League is providing early validation for the front office's belief in the embattled first baseman. Through eight games, he's 11-for-20 with four doubles, two homers and only three strikeouts. 

Is this small sample of excellent production in an exhibition setting meaningful? No, not really. But it's sure better than the alternative, especially for a player who really struggled last year. 

 

Brock Stewart has already touched 97.5 MPH.
There was a general expectation that Stewart might be slowly eased into action this spring, coming off shoulder surgery, but instead he's been off to the races. The right-hander threw a bullpen session within days of reporting to camp, and has made two appearances in Grapefruit League games.

 

In the first of those appearances, last Wednesday, Stewart averaged 96.5 MPH with his fastball and reached as high as 97.5. Head trainer Nick Paparesta told media over the weekend that Stewart is essentially on a standard build-up plan, and all is progressing smoothly. "Obviously, Brock is a little bit more of a daily check-in to make sure everything's going well and he's feeling good," Paparesta said. "It's been all thumbs up since his outing the other day, which was really nice and good to see." The Twins bullpen could be absolutely lethal with a healthy Stewart.

 

Brooks Lee is making loud contact.
A failure to drive the ball with authority was the prime culprit in Lee's offensive struggles as a rookie. His average exit velocity of 85.3 MPH was lowest on the team. He slugged .320 with just 10 extra-base hits in 185 plate appearances. Improving his quality of contact was going to be instrumental to Lee establishing himself as a quality big-league hitter.

His performance in spring action is making a statement. Lee is batting .308 with a .538 SLG in nine games, shaking off last year's ending slump with a hot start in 2025. Against the Yankees last Thursday, he ripped a 107 MPH single in his first at-bat, nearly matching the highest exit velocity he posted in 50 games with the Twins last year. In his next at-bat he launched a homer over the right field wall. Granted, these hits came against an apparently injured Gerrit Cole, but we'll take it. 

As long as he keeps making noise at the plate, Lee is a lock to make the roster.

 

David Festa has walked one of 36 batters faced.
I don't care too much about the 10.13 ERA in eight innings. I'm confident that if Festa throws the ball in the zone consistently, he's going to have success, and I know the Twins feel the same way. That's why they have to be very pleased by the way Festa is pounding the strike zone this spring, with a 9-to-1 K/BB ratio in his three appearances. 

 

Festa is likely on the outside looking in for a rotation spot because Simeon Woods Richardson has been very good in his own right (1 ER in 7 IP) but Festa's going to make himself very difficult to option back to Triple-A if he can keep the BB column clean.

Let's from you all. What have you seen so far this spring that has you feeling most encouraged about the Twins? Sound off in the comments!

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[RpR]

Why are France's numbers meaningless but Lee's are not?

[LambchoP]

Keaschal has looked pretty good at the plate too. Gasper as well. Keirsey seems to impact every game he's in. RBI's, runs and stolen bases.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree on Keaschal, Gaspar, and Keirsey but its hard to see a path to the 26 man roster for any of those 3 players unless there is an injury or Julien opens up one spot by being sent to AAA. Julien is hitting in ST. It does seem most likely all three wind up in AAA with their likely opportunity later in the season.

[bean5302]

Eddie Julien is holding his own so far with a 12% BB rate and 16% K rate which I like to see. That K rate drop is encouraging. Julien's swing rate is up slightly, but I'm not sure the K rate can hold as he's only seeing a 28% first pitch strike rate so far.

Brooks Lee wouldn't take walks last year and he's not taking them in ST, either. 

Wallner's numbers look rough again this spring, but a .000 BABIP on like 15-20 balls in play seems insanely unlucky.

Still 3 weeks to go and competition levels will get much tougher in the next week or so as fringe players start getting reassigned/released.

[Fatbat]

Great info!!! We got health and we got depth! It’s kinda weird to not discuss who is going to cover an injury issue. Everyone in the last few rookie classes are developing nicely which may delay the ‘25 rookie classes a bit, unless someone just blows the door open. Thats a nice issue to have!  Im pretty excited to see Lee knocking to ball around finally. Growth and maturity is nice to see this spring. 

[ashbury]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's numbers look rough again this spring, but a .000 BABIP on like 15-20 balls in play seems insanely unlucky.

Yeah, a .647 OPS built upon a batting average of .107 is borderline hilarious.  All three of his base hits have gone over the fence.  Maybe it's time to launch this year's Fun With Numbers thread.

[Jocko87]

48 minutes ago, RpR said:

Why are France's numbers meaningless but Lee's are not?

They are both meaningless. The important number for Lee is exit velocity. They are both showing they are healthy and swinging well.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Those are all really great signs -- much better than if they skewed the other way!  While you can't put too much stock into ST numbers, whether great from France or lousy from Wallner, they're not nothing either.  Who is having at terrible ST so far? 

[IndianaTwin]

That the top seven SPs are all healthy. 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

They are both meaningless. The important number for Lee is exit velocity. They are both showing they are healthy and swinging well.

Exit velocity against a motley collection of opponents may or may not have greater meaning than the traditional Spring stats, though.

[Jocko87]

4 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Exit velocity against a motley collection of opponents may or may not have greater meaning than the traditional Spring stats, though.

He didn't know Cole was injured when he stood in the box like a seasoned vet.  Squaring him up twice is a nice bonus but more important is that he took very high quality at bats against him.  He's following his pattern of struggling in his first taste of a new level then getting comfortable and being good.  Being healthy helps too.

I have less concern with Lee than almost anyone on the roster.

[Dman]

I know it's spring and he is a veteran hitter, but France's numbers are making me question myself about who I thought he was.  He's been in the starting lineup facing the tougher arms and doing well.  Likely a spring mirage, but those numbers give me greater confidence he has turned things around. Hope springs eternal in spring training, but I like what I am seeing so far.

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

France's numbers are making me question myself about who I thought he was. 

Possibly some general managers, too.  All they needed to do was guarantee him a contract, instead of what he signed with the Twins for.

[Twins GFP]

52 minutes ago, Dman said:

I know it's spring and he is a veteran hitter, but France's numbers are making me question myself about who I thought he was.  He's been in the starting lineup facing the tougher arms and doing well.  Likely a spring mirage, but those numbers give me greater confidence he has turned things around. Hope springs eternal in spring training, but I like what I am seeing so far.

.550 avg and and 1.641 OPS is what Twins Daily posters expect from the group coming up from AAA ball.

France was always a candidate for a bounce back season.  It is good to see he is comfortable and seeing the ball well.   It is early, but good to see this type of start.

[Hubie29]

Lopez 4 ERA last year and looking like doo this spring.  Trade him while he still has value. Something is not right with him. He definitely isn't the stopper he was billed to be. We have young depth to take his place. He is wayyy over paid at 21M.

[Nashvilletwin]

Meanwhile, the least encouraging trend is that Pablo can’t get anyone out. 

[Patzky]

9 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Meanwhile, the least encouraging trend is that Pablo can’t get anyone out. 

Actually the more the lineup resembles what you'd call the 'regular' lineup the more it flails and struggles with men on base. Buck Correa Larnach y'all .

[rdehring]

Thanks for the report, Nick.

Was driving to EP Mall yesterday with the game on the radio.  Caught the ugly inning Julien had defensively.  I kept wondering if his D will make it difficult to keep him on the opening day roster?  Has he looked good at first and I just heard one bad inning?  

I keep looking at the box scores and seeing Lee at shortstop.  Isn't he a leading candidate for second base?

[bean5302]

It's Spring Training. Pitchers are going to force pitches which aren't working for them at this point because the pitcher wants to get a better feel for the pitch. Results for a pitcher like Lopez are far less important than his velocity. Lopez's fastball velocity was 95-96 today.

I'd be concerned if Lopez's velocity was 92-93mph, but it's not.

[Hubie29]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Meanwhile, the least encouraging trend is that Pablo can’t get anyone out. 

My thoughts exactly. Cole out for the year. Perfect timing to trade Lopez to the Yankees for a haul. Wins 40% of his starts last 2 years. This is not ace material. 

[Nashvilletwin]

7 minutes ago, Hubie29 said:

My thoughts exactly. Cole out for the year. Perfect timing to trade Lopez to the Yankees for a haul. Wins 40% of his starts last 2 years. This is not ace material. 

Just saw the announcement on Cole. My immediate thought was Lopez to the Yanks.  Haha.

[mikelink45]

These are interesting but everyone - including TD periodically reminds us the ST number don't mean anything.  I do not know how the evaluations are done, but this is an interesting collection of statistics.

[HerbieFan]

I'm on record.....I want Brooks Lee to be the everyday 2B.  Period.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

12 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Those are all really great signs -- much better than if they skewed the other way!  While you can't put too much stock into ST numbers, whether great from France or lousy from Wallner, they're not nothing either.  Who is having at terrible ST so far? 

Raya was awful Saturday.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Ryan Fitzgerald made an incredible play Saturday at SS, diving to his right to field a sharply hit ball, get to his feet and throw a strike to first base to save a run , late in the game.  He is a 30 year old AAA player who hustles and has a good arm. He hit 14 HR last year in AAA and hit for a decent average for a SS.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Third base coach, Tommy Watkins looked good diving to the ground to escape a screaming line drive foul aimed at Tommy's head. Royce Lewis looked good signing autographs long after all the other players had gone into the club-house. Lewis was smiling and chatting with each fan. He chatted with the 3rd base umpire, the 3rd base coach from Boston, and anyone who was within listening range. That is great PR, but that really is Royce being Royce. What a friendly guy. Also I saw a beautiful large Bard Owl at dusk at Six Mile Cyprus Slough, when it flew low  right over my head, as it hooted at me. Plus 4 different alligators looked impressive as they swam lazily by in 3 separate ponds in the slough. 

[ashbury]

13 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Third base coach, Tommy Watkins looked good diving to the ground to escape a screaming line drive foul aimed at Tommy's head. Royce Lewis looked good signing autographs long after all the other players had gone into the club-house. Lewis was smiling and chatting with each fan. He chatted with the 3rd base umpire, the 3rd base coach from Boston, and anyone who was within listening range. That is great PR, but that really is Royce being Royce. What a friendly guy. Also I saw a beautiful large Bard Owl at dusk at Six Mile Cyprus Slough, when it flew low  right over my head, as it hooted at me. Plus 4 different alligators looked impressive as they swam lazily by in 3 separate ponds in the slough. 

Living your best life.  I'm jealous.

[Doctor Wu]

16 hours ago, Hubie29 said:

Lopez 4 ERA last year and looking like doo this spring.  Trade him while he still has value. Something is not right with him. He definitely isn't the stopper he was billed to be. We have young depth to take his place. He is wayyy over paid at 21M.

If I remember correctly, Pablo had pretty ugly ST numbers last year also. Don't think it's going to reflect much on how he pitches once the season starts. 

[Parfigliano]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Eddie Julien is holding his own so far with a 12% BB rate and 16% K rate which I like to see. That K rate drop is encouraging. Julien's swing rate is up slightly, but I'm not sure the K rate can hold as he's only seeing a 28% first pitch strike rate so far.

Brooks Lee wouldn't take walks last year and he's not taking them in ST, either. 

Wallner's numbers look rough again this spring, but a .000 BABIP on like 15-20 balls in play seems insanely unlucky.

Still 3 weeks to go and competition levels will get much tougher in the next week or so as fringe players start getting reassigned/released.

Hopefully Eddie J has turned the ship