PECOTA 2025: Minnesota Twins Take the American League Central Crown

[Matthew Lenz]

Happy PECOTA Day, Twins fans! And, boy, is it a day to celebrate.

Image courtesy of © John Froschauer-Imagn Images

Baseball Prospectus (BP) has released their PECOTA projections for the 2025 season, and their thousands of simulations project the Minnesota Twins to win the American League Central with 86 wins (5th in AL, 11th in MLB), five more than the second place Kansas City Royals. PECOTA gives the Twins a 62.9% chance to make the playoffs, a 45.3% chance to reach the divisional round, and a 4.7% chance to win the World Series. For context, that’s the ninth-highest percentage in baseball. (Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the highest percentage, at a whopping 20.7%.) If you don’t focus tightly on the last month and a half of the 2024 season, the win total shouldn’t be all that surprising—although the prospect of winning the division by five games may be.

The Twins have a young core of players who should continue developing; a bounce-back candidate atop their rotation; and other pitchers who hope to have a healthier 2025 season. While the offseason has been lackluster (to say the least), this group was on a 92-win pace halfway through last August, and the front office looks to bring back a vast majority of that team. Let’s dig a little deeper to see exactly what BP likes (and doesn’t like) about the 2025 version of this club.

Hitters
BP projects the Twins to feature seven above-average hitters, based on their Deserved Runs Created rates (DRC+, where 100 is average and higher is better): Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, José Miranda, and Ryan Jeffers. The most notable name missing from that list is fan favorite super-utility Willi Castro, who projects to carry a 92 DRC+ while slashing .231/.308/.358. Those numbers are all significantly lower than we’ve seen him produce with the Twins, but this is a good reminder that Castro did have a robust (and discouraging) track record with the Tigers before coming to Minnesota.

On the other hand, BP has Edouard Julien producing something closer to his rookie season than his sophomore campaign. They like Brooks Lee to be a slightly below-average hitter (98 DRC+), and Austin Martin to build off a solid rookie year. Overall, the Twins are projected to have a roughly average offense (102 DRC+) and to score about 4.5 runs per game.

Starting Rotation
Like last season, PECOTA projects Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober to be a solid 1-2-3 punch in 2025. That said, the model’s projection seems to be a little confused on whether or not it believes in a López bounceback. While most would agree López had a lackluster 2024, the model projects his Deserved Runs Against Minus (DRA-) and Wins Above Replacement Player (WARP) to worsen, while projecting a 0.6 run improvement in his ERA. In short, it's telling us that his 2024 line was unlucky—but that he is more likely to get better in those surface-level areas than in terms of real performance.

The four starters who will compete for the final two rotation spots (Simeon Woods Richardson, Chris Paddack, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa) all project to be roughly league-average performers, with Festa leading the way (96 DRA-, where lower is better) and Woods Richardson at the bottom of the group (102). One thing to note is that DRA- is relative to the rest of the league irrespective of rotation spot, which I find to be pretty encouraging: PECOTA likes even the bottom of the Twins rotation to be around the average for all pitchers.

Bullpen
Naturally, all bullpens seem to face more scrutiny than any other position group. Unlike any other position, when the bullpen blows a hold or save resulting in a loss, they’re often the primary scapegoat regardless of what unfolded throughout the entirety of the game. While this isn’t unique to Twins fans, there is no better example of this than to read the comments and social media replies to FanGraphs's recent projections that have the Minnesota bullpen as one of the best in baseball.

PECOTA projects Griffin Jax to be the Twins’ most effective reliever by a wide margin, with a sub-3.00 ERA and a 73 DRA-. Moreover, it projects the majority of the bullpen innings to be better than average, including those thrown by Jorge Alcalá, Jhoan Durán, Cole Sands, Kody Funderburk, and Michael Tonkin. In spite of what @Twinsfan6535438919 thinks, we have multiple reputable data models projecting the Twins to have one of the best bullpens in baseball (again) in 2025.

Yes, it’s hard to overlook the last 40 games of the 2024 season, and that stretch shouldn’t be completely ignored. Yes, it’s hard to overlook the lack of impact moves the Pohlads have allowed in the offseason. Yes, those two things together make it easy to overlook the influence player development can have on an organization. However, the 2025 Twins (largely made up of homegrown players and former castoffs) cannot be overlooked, and are absolutely contenders to win the American League Central. In fact, we can fairly call them the clear favorites.

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What do you think of the projection model? Are you taking over or under 85.5 wins?

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[NYCTK]

Hang the PECOTA division title banner. 

[jmlease1]

It's easy to forget in the underwhelming offseason the Twins have had because of the self-imposed payroll limitations dictated from the Pohlads that their AL Central rivals haven't exactly set the world on fire either.

I'm mildly skeptical about projection systems, but part of that is in my head I want to use them for the wrong things and treat them as being more predictive than they're intended to be.

one thing I fine interesting about systems like PECOTA is they're not as infected by recency bias like fans are. The late-season implosion in 2024 by many players isn't going to be seen as predictive for 2025, just another 6 weeks of the total season. There's some good in that. (There may also be some bad in that as it's possible that players may have gotten exposed down the stretch and a projection system can miss that)

I do think the Twins roster is still a good one, with hitting strengths, quality starting pitching (and depth) as well as a bullpen that is very good at it's top end with potential to be great with decent performances/health from some of the guys further down the line. Biggest weakness is defense right now; while there are some quality defenders, there's also some areas where it's tough.

I will say I'm not surprised to see Castro rated relatively poorly. His Tigers track record will be taken into account, but he also had a poor second half, belying his all-star status. I think he was probably a bit overused last season myself.

 

[Vanimal46]

PECOTA was off on projecting the AL Central by an average of 13 games last season. Forgive me for not putting any value into their projections. 

PECOTA 2024 AL Central:

MIN 88 wins, actual 82 wins

CLE 83 wins, actual 92 wins

DET 75 wins, actual 86 wins

KC 70 wins, actual 86 wins

CWS 66 wins, actual 41 wins 

[Jocko87]

20 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Hang the PECOTA division title banner. 

Outta space, shoulda put a roof on it.

[PDX Twin]

Kansas City 70 wins? That's laughable!

[PatPfund]

Projections are great offseason fodder, and pretty meaningless once real pitches are thrown and bats swung, and balls chased. Still it is the offseason, and it's nice to have a data-based guess for now. And a reminder that this team actually has a LOT of talent. (My favorite part of the summary is that there is no mention of Mickey Gasper projections!)

Edited February 3, 2025 by PatPfund

[LA Vikes Fan]

Interesting, but PECOTA tends to be late to the party as teams improve. I think Detroit will win more than the predicted 75 games, KC more than 81 and Cleveland more than 80. I think it will take 90+ wins to win the division and that all 4 teams have a shot at that number.  I see those 3 plus the Twins all between 81 and 92 wins, with the Twins finishing at around 88-90 wins, finishing second in the division, and making the playoffs as a Wild Card.  Who finishes first? I say Detroit now that they signed Flaherty to pair with Skubal, who is an absolute beast and one of the few ace starters out there.  Detroit wins 90-92, Twins 88-90, KC 85, Cleveland 82, White Sox 65. 

[bean5302]

86 wins hasn't been enough to win a division since the 2008 Dodgers won the NL West with 84 wins. 86 wins has a 0.00% chance of being enough to win an MLB division over the past 16 years. I think the projection systems are light on things right now. Plus, there's a lot out there on the market right now.

[DJL44]

48 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

PECOTA was off on projecting the AL Central by an average of 13 games last season. Forgive me for not putting any value into their projections. 

PECOTA 2024 AL Central:

MIN 88 wins, actual 82 wins

CLE 83 wins, actual 92 wins

DET 75 wins, actual 86 wins

KC 70 wins, actual 86 wins

CWS 66 wins, actual 41 wins 

All projection systems are wrong, every year. That doesn't mean they are useless. It is more interesting to figure out where the assumptions diverged from what actually happened.

FYI - No projection system is going to pick a team to win just 41 games.

[CRF]

Unfortunately...this means nothing. 

[Parfigliano]

38 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Kansas City 70 wins? That's laughable!

Seems way to low.

[tony&rodney]

There is utility in looking at statistics and analytics, which is why teams hire a raft of employees to dig and scape for any advantage or edge possible that improves any player to increase potential win totals. 

For those of us not employed by an MLB team crunching data, these sites and minutiae of collected numbers are good entertainment. When i'm working specifically with a pitcher (in the past) on refining one pitch and changing the shape of another pitch based on some information on hand, the close proximity to the task at hand has consequences and verifiable successes and failures. Reading the data and not having any personal hands on knowledge means the data is just numbers. When Joe Ryan works specifically with one of the many businesses/people tracking his delivery and pitches and then using information in conversation with Joe to find subtle improvements, there is a close knowledge of how that works. Looking over the data without seeing the guy pitch is an incomplete picture, which is what all of these sites give us. They are mere entertainment and I enjoy them too but it is best to put it into context. 

Thus ______ (fill in the name of the site/ prognosticator) publishes a tome of information telling us where our players and teams should reside. Guess what? Sometimes they are close because numbers do tell a good story. 

The Twins benefitted from their residence in the AL Central for a few years as Chicago, Detroit, and Kansas City faltered and Cleveland struggled with money. Last year we began to see a natural rise of a couple of teams (Detroit and Kansas City), which should continue in 2025. The AL Central will almost certainly be a close race between four teams and the White Sox will be more competitive while losing 100 games. Don't bet on any of the teams at this time to win 90 games. Expect 82-88 wins for all of Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota, and Kansas City. 

[bean5302]

5 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

All projection systems are wrong, every year. That doesn't mean they are useless. It is more interesting to figure out where the assumptions diverged from what actually happened.

FYI - No projection system is going to pick a team to win just 41 games.

I think what @Vanimal46 is getting at is PECOTA is consistently wildly inaccurate. Their model is projecting 86 wins as enough to win a division when 86 wins hasn't worked in 16 years, and it's even very rare less than 90 wins gets it done. Their model is forecasting extreme outliers to start with.

FGDC + 45 wins baseline at least projects the Twins as a 90 win team for the lead in the division. That provides a some modeling credibility where PECOTA has little to none.

[twinzcynic]

This Just In: Projection system ran by spreadsheets adores team put together and ran via spreadsheets!

[Vanimal46]

9 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think what @Vanimal46 is getting at is PECOTA is consistently wildly inaccurate. Their model is projecting 86 wins as enough to win a division when 86 wins hasn't worked in 16 years, and it's even very rare less than 90 wins gets it done. Their model is forecasting extreme outliers to start with.

FGDC + 45 wins baseline at least projects the Twins as a 90 win team for the lead in the division. That provides a some modeling credibility where PECOTA has little to none.

PECOTA is particularly bad projecting the Central division in both the AL and NL. The Brewers and Guardians consistently out perform projections by 10+ games. 

[Doctor Gast]

Twins had a pretty good team in '23. In '24 we still have pretty much the same team, especially on paper. Last year we were projected to win the AL Central, afterward, they made some changes but still looks good on paper but the difference is in the intangible of chemistry & unity. '25 we are projected to win the AL Central, we still look good on paper, but what'll boil down to is how much chemistry, leadership & unity from the core are maintained & health.

[amjgt]

The "Kansas City 70 Wins" number that keeps getting bandied about was someone saying their 2024 projection, not 2025 (which PECOTA has at 81)

[amjgt]

Quick question about DRA-

League-wide, by definition, the average is 100, but what is the historic and recent breakdown of SP vs RP?

My gut tells me that the average for a RP would be something like 98 and a SP something like 102, but I also don't know how some RP blowups (or positional players pitching) might sway those numbers closer to 100/100

[DJL44]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think what @Vanimal46 is getting at is PECOTA is consistently wildly inaccurate. Their model is projecting 86 wins as enough to win a division when 86 wins hasn't worked in 16 years, and it's even very rare less than 90 wins gets it done. Their model is forecasting extreme outliers to start with.

FGDC + 45 wins baseline at least projects the Twins as a 90 win team for the lead in the division. That provides a some modeling credibility where PECOTA has little to none.

More likely they're heavily regressing the model than forecasting extreme outliers. 86 wins is not an outlier season.

Every projection system should have to publish their error bars. Median projections are not that interesting.

[rdehring]

Very interesting.  Thanks for bringing it to us Matt.

Spending six weeks out here in the California desert where my wife's sister and husband live.  They/she are huge Dodger fans who were season ticket holders until they left LA a few years ago.  Sure didn't need to read anything about the Dodgers being most likely to win it all, I hear that crap every day.

Said several weeks ago that I believe Castro has played his best half season of his career and that it was likely that one of Helman, Keaschal. Martin or Keirsey would be as valuable to the Twins in 2025 as Castro.  Thus, I remain hopeful that he will be included in a trade before spring training is over.  Just might be some GM out there who believes in the player he was the first half of last year.

As for the projections, should I be ordering playoff tickets? 

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins had a pretty good team in '23. In '24 we still have pretty much the same team, especially on paper. Last year we were projected to win the AL Central, afterward, they made some changes but still looks good on paper but the difference is in the intangible of chemistry & unity. '25 we are projected to win the AL Central, we still look good on paper, but what'll boil down to is how much chemistry, leadership & unity from the core are maintained & health.

I don't know why their intangibles would change. None of their personnel is different.

[Brett]

I’ll take the over since no one has gotten hurt yet.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, PDX Twin said:

Kansas City 70 wins? That's laughable!

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Seems way to low.

That was last year's prediction. They have them at 81 wins this year.

[amjgt]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

More likely they're heavily regressing the model than forecasting extreme outliers. 86 wins is not an outlier season.

Every projection system should have to publish their error bars. Median projections are not that interesting.

A couple years ago I really dug into the individual players numbers. Every other number they publish (I think it was 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentile, at the time) is far more interesting than the 50th percentile projection.

[amjgt]

Not sure what it was back then, but it's more than that now. Time to have some fun with 99th percentile projections

[Jocko87]

Speaking of projection systems. 

Currently available betting lines at DraftKings/Fanduel.  Hedge on hedge on hedge.

Twins-84.5/83.5

Royals-83.5/82.5

Tigers-83.5/83.5

Gaurdians-83.5/82.5

White Sox-51.5/52.5

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'll go by what I've seen on the field lately. Cle, Det, and KC all made the PO's. Det and KC have both made some helpful upgrades on the field. Cle did some reshuffling which was far from retooling. MN has added Gasper and Mike Ford to an 82-80 team that was that good thanks to a 12-1 record against a team that lost 121 games. In addition feasted on the losing A's and Angels. These three organizations are also improved in different ways. 

We are sold that we will be good because? Buxton and Correa will be healthier in spite of being older? That recipe didn't work for me. Foregive me for not being more excited about our 1st place finish in PECOTA

 

[The Great Hambino]

I'm waiting to see what Babip, Vorp, and Eckstein have to say before jumping to any conclusions

[Western SD Fan]

One piece of information about PECOTA that would be useful to know.  PECOTA was originally designed by Nate Silver (remember FiveThirtyEight, political predictions?).  Now that I know that tidbit of information, I have no faith in this model as my first assumption is that it will be as far off as anything Nate Silver has ever developed.