PECOTA 2025: Minnesota Twins Take the American League Central Crown

[minman1982]

3 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

PECOTA was off on projecting the AL Central by an average of 13 games last season. Forgive me for not putting any value into their projections. 

PECOTA 2024 AL Central:

MIN 88 wins, actual 82 wins

CLE 83 wins, actual 92 wins

DET 75 wins, actual 86 wins

KC 70 wins, actual 86 wins

CWS 66 wins, actual 41 wins 

That is why we watch the game, isn't it? If it was all based upon what the computer models say, it wouldn't be any fun. Plus, who would have bet on the White Sox to lose 120 games a year ago? That was definitely fun to watch.

Personally, I think this is going to be a competitive division. Outside of the White Sox, who are still going to be terrible this year (probably not 120 loss terrible), all four of the other teams have a realistic chance of winning the division.

[mikelink45]

I guess I can cancel Twins Daily since we already know the answer - why wait for ST and 162 games?  

This is a joke and the commenters really point it out.  KC has to be in depression now and Detroit is going to waste two Aces!

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

I guess I can cancel Twins Daily since we already know the answer - why wait for ST and 162 games?  

This is a joke and the commenters really point it out.  KC has to be in depression now and Detroit is going to waste two Aces!

If Detroit does sign Bregman they will probably be forecast to lose more than they gain. I agree it is a joke. We got better by losing Santana and replacing him with Gasper I'm sure.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

More likely they're heavily regressing the model than forecasting extreme outliers. 86 wins is not an outlier season.

Every projection system should have to publish their error bars. Median projections are not that interesting.

The 86 wins isn't the outlier. The fact no AL Central team projects with more than 86 wins is the outlier. The model's credibility is weak.

[Parfigliano]

4 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

PECOTA is particularly bad projecting the Central division in both the AL and NL. The Brewers and Guardians consistently out perform projections by 10+ games. 

I'm waiting until Strat-O-Matic runs the season 10,000 times before I bet any win totals.

[Linus]

I came here to say that I think projection systems are bunk and then they predicted the 86.5 wins which is where I think the Twins will end up.  Damn.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

If Detroit does sign Bregman they will probably be forecast to lose more than they gain. I agree it is a joke. We got better by losing Santana and replacing him with Gasper I'm sure.

It's not quite that simple.  The bulk of any projection is based on what MANY members of your team will accomplish.  So, even though it is unlikely (at best) that Gasper will replace Santana's output, it is likely that some or all of that will be made up for elsewhere. 

I think one of the reasons for the somewhat optimistic projection is that almost no Twins hitter had a high quality offensive season AND a relatively healthy season (played a lot of games) at the same time.  Buxton and Correa were pretty good, but they didn't play that many games.  Will they play more games while keeping their rate stats similar?  Possibly, maybe even probably.  However, the amount of potential growth to come from guys like Larnach, Wallner, Lewis, and Miranda is pretty substantial, which accounts for the likely loss of impact at 1B.  I would personally take the over on whether at least 3 of the 4 will have a better 2025 than 2024 and that's without factoring any potential rookie contributions which likely also move the bar forward.  YMMV.

[tony&rodney]

If what I read in the comments is even remotely close to some semblance of true, which is a fairly wide region of doubt, we can conclude that PECOTA is bull***t, and merely space in our cold winter day.

[sweetmusicviola16]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

If what I read in the comments is even remotely close to some semblance of true, which is a fairly wide region of doubt, we can conclude that PECOTA is bull***t, and merely space in our cold winter day.

And zero heat coming  out of the Twins hot stove. I guess ownership couldn't afford any gas to put in the saw to cut some wood......

[TopGunn#22]

This is interesting.  We KNOW the Twins have talent and there are a number of players primed for a comeback/bounce back that could power the team forward.  

Jocko laid out the betting lines and yes, while they hedge, hedge, hedge, it's very easy to see where they're projecting a fierce 4-team pennant race with the White Sox dwelling in the cellar.  I'm expecting a fierce pennant race. 

Cleveland's bullpen won't be AS GOOD as they were in 2024.  They were EPIC.  They will probably still be good, but not THAT good.  Their offense is missing Naylor and Gimenez.  

I look for the Tigers to be the prime competition.  Adding Flaherty to Skubal was a great move.  The Tigers have emerging hitters that will probably show improvement.

The Royals have the head and shoulders best player in the division and maybe the American League in Bobby Witt and a bona fide Ace in Cole Ragans.  But I don't think 34 year old Seth Lugo can repeat his 2024 and their rotation and bullpen is a little thin.

Our Hot Stove ain't so hot right now, but maybe we will make a deal that will improve the team for 2025 and beyond.  If not, the Twins still have enough talent to win the division if they play more like 2023 and half of 2024 than they did for the last two months of 2024.  

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I'm waiting until Strat-O-Matic runs the season 10,000 times before I bet any win totals.

I put 2 treats in front of my dog with an over and under signs in front of them. Then bet on which treat he eats first. Pretty much the same success rate as ZIPS and PECOTA 

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I came here to say that I think projection systems are bunk and then they predicted the 86.5 wins which is where I think the Twins will end up.  Damn.

I will give you 10 to 1 odds on $100 the Twins don't end up with 86.5 wins.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

PECOTA was off on projecting the AL Central by an average of 13 games last season. Forgive me for not putting any value into their projections. 

PECOTA 2024 AL Central:

MIN 88 wins, actual 82 wins

CLE 83 wins, actual 92 wins

DET 75 wins, actual 86 wins

KC 70 wins, actual 86 wins

CWS 66 wins, actual 41 wins 

Ouch. I guess this is why the games are played. Play Ball !

[Vanimal46]

7 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Ouch. I guess this is why the games are played. Play Ball !

That may be why we haven’t seen back to back PECOTA AL Central Champion flags at Target Field yet. 

[jud6312]

I was in Vegas last week and took the under on the 83.5 wins MGM has them on, so I'd certainly double down on 85.5.

[IndianaTwin]

6 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I'll go by what I've seen on the field lately. Cle, Det, and KC all made the PO's. Det and KC have both made some helpful upgrades on the field. Cle did some reshuffling which was far from retooling. MN has added Gasper and Mike Ford to an 82-80 team that was that good thanks to a 12-1 record against a team that lost 121 games. In addition feasted on the losing A's and Angels. These three organizations are also improved in different ways. 

We are sold that we will be good because? Buxton and Correa will be healthier in spite of being older? That recipe didn't work for me. Foregive me for not being more excited about our 1st place finish in PECOTA

 

For the record, Kansas City was 12-1 against Chicago and Detroit 10-3, so it's not like the Twins gained much on them by beating up on Chicago. Two of the wins over Detroit came on the last two days of the season, when Detroit is setting itself up for the playoffs and Chicago had something to play for in avoiding loss No. 122. And one could argue that Cleveland wasn't really that good, because they lost five times to one of the the worst teams in major league history.

Every team in the league besides Tampa Bay, Oakland and Los Angeles improved their record because they played the White Sox multiple times.

(And all but Atlanta, Colorado, St. Louis and Washington in the National League. I'm actually surprised that Chicago won seven series over the course of the year.)

[IndianaTwin]

As an addition to my previous post, it's so much fun to keep coming up with new ways to talk about how bad the White Sox were. 

[ashbury]

PECOTA's guiding philosophy is this: if present trends continue, things will remain much as they are.

It's not a bad way to base forecasts, but it isn't going to notice some player about to break out suddenly either.  Look at their forecast for Brooks Lee as an example.  (Not that I'm ready to declare him a 5 WAR player either.)

[DocBauer]

Well, it's at least fun to see someone like the Twins in their projections at least. 

I dislike the premise of any team debate begining with "if healthy" because that describes EVERY team at the end of the day. And there's always the possibility of a rookie or two that changes the complexion of a team's final results as well.

But in the Twins case, a healthy Lewis and Correa DOES change a lot of the offensive outlook. And I take issue with the proposed projection of Castro. His .750 OPS in 2023 was almost identical the 1st half of 2024 before he hurt his back and was possibly tired as well. I understand his Tiger numbers, but he matured as a 25yo as a Twin and was doing well last season initially, and is still only 27yo. His maturation timeline for getting better at 25yo is fairly standard, IMO.

I also take slight issue with the backend of the rotation, even though it's not bad at all. SWR could regression as a sophomore, and Festa isn't exactly proven yet. But there's room for both to improve as easily as regress as well. While SWR tired late in the season, he's young and hitting a career high in IP is also part of the maturation process as a ML pitcher. And Festa's numbers were really solid after his first few outings. Again, no guarantees, but the upside is clear for both of them.

My biggest concern is lineup depth. I can have a combination of hope and limited belief in Helman, Keirsey, and a bounceback from Julien, possible improvement from Martin as well, but that's very different than having a payroll that allows you to add a couple pieces to provide confidence in your bench.

Were the Twins, for example, to offload Paddack's contract and spend his $ and the reported $5M extra available in payroll to make a trade with the Rays for Diaz at 1B, suddenly allowing Miranda to DH as well as play 1B and some DH, suddenly my only concern is a spare OF. 

But I do find this speculation to be interesting, if a bit flawed.

[UK Twin]

The good news is if you look at the standings from last season the only team you would feel confident in improving their record is the Twins. Well, I suppose the White Sox as well, improving from absolutely pathetic to just plain bad. 

Take KC - ok, Witt is a superstar and will likely produce MVP candidate stats again. But a chunk of their roster is aging. Perez is 34, turns 35 in May. Lugo, their ace from last year is 35 - it's a lot to ask for a 35 year old SP to replicate his 3.00 ERA from last season. Wacha is 33, he's had 3 strong seasons but he could start to regress. Ragans is very good and I like their bullpen. But plenty of questions remain about their rotation and offense behind Witt.

Tigers - Excellent 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. Skubal is elite and Flaherty good. But question marks about the rest of their rotation and their bullpen isn't particularly special. Their offence is ok, nothing more. 

Out of KC, Tigers and Cleveland, I think Cleveland have easily the best shot at equalling or bettering their record from last season. 

Twins are going to be relying on two things - health (as per usual) and the development of our younger hitters such as Lee, Wallner, Lewis and Julien. The rotation is strong, 4 very reliable and durable pitchers, bullpen needs a lefty but otherwise looks strong and if Lewis shakes off his slump from last season we've got a strong heart of the batting line up. 

AL Central could be a fun division to watch again. The inter-division games will be so important. We sucked against Cleveland last season, OK against KC and Detroit and beat up the White Sox if my memory is correct. Must improve against Cleveland.

[Fezig]

If the left side of the infield and CF can stay away from the IL for long periods of time there's no reason to think 86 wins isn't a possibility with the talent they have. The only reason they probably won't is because of the guy leading the ship. 

[Aerodeliria]

Isn't that the picture where Buxton steps on Correa's foot, twisting his knee and Miranda throws out his back giving a high five?

[Mahoning]

Cleveland got worse by trading Naylor. Detroit got better, especially with Jack Flaherty. KC presumably will have Pasquantino all season, and Jonathan India is better than anyone the Twins are likely to put at 2B. The Twins will be much worse at first base. There isn't a single, proven, every-day player in the lineup. It's all if, if, if. If he stays healthy, if he bounces back, if, if, if. Nobody wins with ifs. I see them finishing fourth, third at best. 

[saviking]

Where do injuries play into their outcome. They don't because no one can predict them. So take any prediction with a grain of salt.

[NYCTK]

On 2/3/2025 at 10:37 PM, DocBauer said:

he hurt his back and was possibly tired as well.

Oh noooooo. The professional athlete was tired :-(

This is just always the worst excuse. It was extremely lame for Royce Lewis (oh? you missed half the season and still ran out of steam? Do more cardio maybe?) and its still a lame excuse for Castro. 

Fact is, Catros peripherals were basically identical in the first and second half. He didn't get tired. He was lucky in the first half, and unlucky in the second half. And things evened out and he is who we thought he was.

The career 701 OPS guy is a good, valuable utility player. Nothing more.