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Posted

I’m not good at math, but I know how to count to eight. We’re gonna see some movement, right?

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images

On Tuesday morning, the Twins made their first major-league signing of the offseason. It only took three months, but by gum, they’ve done it. Danny Coulombe, the prodigal son, has finally returned to Minnesota. But in the numbers game that is a modern bullpen, there is no room at the inn, no seat at the feast, too many figs on the tree... something like that. Too many bulls!

Before Coulombe’s signing, there were already questions about the number of arms in the Twins bullpen. Given that he has an MLB deal and a guaranteed contract, his name must be written in pen. But what does that mean for everyone else?

Coulombe joins a list of names who cannot be sent down without first being waived—exposed to the other 29 teams for free. Those players will either make the Opening Day roster, start the year on the injured list, or be cut after spring training. That group also includes Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Ronny Henriquez. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s four hurlers who cannot be sent down. They make it, or they’re probably cut.

There’s also Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano. If the Twins want to retain his services, he has to stay on the big-league roster or injured list all year (and even if he spends time on the IL, he needs to be on the active roster for at least 90 days). So, there’s five.

After that, we need to add in Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá, and Louie Varland. Varland probably goes to Triple-A by default at this point, but keeping the five guys locked into a spot would probably also necessitate sending both Topa and Alcalá to St. Paul. If the Twins want to have Topa and Alcalá on the Opening Day roster, the obvious moves would probably be to waive Henriquez and return Castellano to Philadelphia (or arrange a trade for him and then send him down). They could also waive Tonkin, whom they're paying $1 million. But those each kind of seem like a waste of resources. (Besides, it was waiving a recent signee on a cheap deal that lost the Twins Coulombe before!)

There are other names—like Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, Huascar Ynoa, Scott Blewett, Connor Prielipp, and Anthony Misiewicz—who might play a role in the bullpen this season, but we’ve already got our hands full with those top 11.

It’s totally possible that the Twins front office—who, mind you, have been watching the same teams we all have been—are prepping for inevitable injury concerns. Stewart missed most of the past two seasons despite dominating when healthy. Topa threw 2 1/3 innings last season. And relievers tend to get dinged up from time to time. It’s not the worst plan in the world to have more MLB arms than you can carry, but they’d seem to be banking on that being the case as soon as the doors open. At least one arm will need to be in the medical tent in order for the organization not to need to part with talent when you have 11 potential bullpen arms.

Of course, returning a Rule 5 guy to his original team happens more often than not. There’s reason to be excited about Henriquez, but he’s by no means established and could prove tricky to carry on the active roster for a full season. Even Tonkin has been passed around the league before, and it can happen again. But all of those do require serious thought; none of them can be taken back.

Beyond those concerns, or perhaps conversely, having five unoptionable guys in your bullpen can prevent a team from having their best bullpens, because if you dump them, you lose talent. Right now, there’s no semblance of a St. Paul shuttle for their relievers. They have five guys who can’t be sent down and five guys they probably don’t want to send down (especially Durán, Jax, and Sands).

The Twins have been criticized in recent years for being a bit too reluctant to part with struggling veterans who can't be optioned. A move like this certainly sets them up for similar practices and similar criticisms. It's just a little crowded right now, and it's not clear how they'll release the pressure.

Then there's the 40-man spot, given that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. Dropping Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano would clear a spot there, but the Twins might also try to keep all of their current pitchers. In that case, Michael Helman, Mickey Gasper, Matt Canterino, Jair Camargo, and Diego Cartaya might all be candidates. But if Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano were to eventually be cut for an active roster spot, that would effectively mean that two players were lost to make room for a lefty middle reliever.

There's probably an outside chance that this move could be the precursor to a trade, but who knows. They don't pay me enough to soothsay.

And also what does this mean for Chris Paddack? We have to ask that question whenever a pitcher moves, right?


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Posted
3 minutes ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

I don't know what is making me literally LMFAO more right now - the move itself, or the fact that two whole articles were written about this move.

Next we just need to add two more light hitting infielders and one more left handed hitting corner outfielder and we're set.  

We've known about this move for a week. You're going to be reading A LOT about Danny Coulombe in the coming days and YOU'RE GOING TO LIKE IT.

Seriously, though, that's how desperate we all are to talk about real baseball moves. Everyone lined up to analyze Danny-freaking-Coulombe.

Posted
11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

A trade is a good idea. If they're going to cut a pitcher off the 40-man it should probably be Canterino.

I see couple trades being made and go out and sign a batter 

Posted

There's certainly some room to designate some of the more fringe pitchers, but you have to hope that the Twins are going to be able to maybe package a couple of guys as part of a trade. The 40 man has room to maneuver, but they will have to be shuffling pitchers with so few slots taken up by position players. The 26-man is pretty inflexible: max 13 pitchers.

Coloumbe's a solid pitcher; he's been an effective LHP who does the job against LH hitters without getting destroyed by RH. Bigger issue is whether or not he can stay on the field, which is the part I like less. Missing almost 3 months last season makes me twitchy, but he did come back and finish the season so he should at least start the season ok.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I have to think Paddack goes at some point, but maybe they do something creative and move Duran for someone that helps in a different area? 

Paddack is up in the air as you state - IMO, he brings great value at $7.5M as an 80-100 inning guy. Couple times a week from PEN as well as dropping him into a 3-5 inning spot start once a month. A real weapon to me!

Team needs more offense and a reasonable solution at 1B & C in the long-term. Duran seems to be the high value guy that would attract a “real player” from another club - not a “highly touted” or “nice upside” ….. a Catcher ……..OR, T. Casas for 1B, he has been a target of mine for 3 months. Hope SOX sign Bregman & Casas is freed up to move.

Vazquez to a team that has young catching depth - for one of their guys - along with Duran and a young starter OR a guy like Henriquez or Tonkin? Gotta be a real player - immediate contributor.

Blewett …….Paddack & Varland…….Alcala & Topa……. Coulombe & Sands…….. Jax. This seems like a group to roll with along with another 3-4 guys behind them & worth moving Duran for some offense.

If they can get offense and keep Duran - wonderful!!

Posted
5 minutes ago, mickster said:

Duran to Boston for Casas

Yes! Pushed for this very thing here in November/December…….seems like a win-win as they cannot rely on Chapman to be their backend by himself - not at this point in his career.

Posted
2 minutes ago, mickster said:

Duran to Boston for Casas

That is not a deal I can see helping the Twins. I would trade Duran and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. However, Arizona would not trade Lawler. 

The Twins need to look over how they are constructing their team in terms of defense, speed, strike out percentage, and such. Casas would join a number of other Twins as slow, defensively challenged, and prone to striking out a ton. Breslow is working to balance the Red Sox offense/position players according to these characteristics.

Back in October it seemed like the Twins needed to make several moves. It still feels that way.

Posted (edited)

A lot of these questions may be distant memories at the end of Spring Training. If Castellano doesn't look good do the return/trade thing. Anyone gets hurt (like Topa did last year), and there's your opening. Structurally, this is pretty much what the Twins did to themselves last year too, and yep, it means waiving guaranteed contracts you probably shouldn't have given out early (like Jackson last year), because modern bullpens need to have AAA shuttle tickets available.

Assuming no injuries I'd waive Cartaya to clear 40-man space (let's get serious, put aside his original prospect status; he's raw defensively, and can't even hit AA pitching; he is a lottery ticket that can't pay off for at least 2 years and will have to come off the 40-man at some point). Varland starts the year as an SP (in AAA). The rest can shake out by injury and performance; if they aren't waived at the end of ST, you can count on multiple arms getting put on waivers to get a working shuttle going during the year. Some will pass through, some won't. That's baseball.

Edited by PatPfund
typo action
Posted
6 minutes ago, PatPfund said:

. Anyone gets hurt (like Topa did last year), and there's your opening.

And there's the answer.  As sure as the sun rises in the east, the Twins will have one or more pitchers getting shut down in March... It has happened every year for the past decade.

If by some miracle the sun fails to rise, there will be plenty of other MLB teams in need of pitching by the end of March.  Tonkin or some other semi-fungible reliever can be flipped for a very low level semi-prospect.

Posted

Obviously, adding a lefty reliever fits the platoon heavy profile of the Twins' strategy, and I'm fine with Coulombe.

As far as where he fits in, Brock Stewart is pretty likely to open the year on at least the 15 day IL, Topa's been constantly injured across his slow moving and lengthy career. It's unlikely the Twins come out of ST with no players on the IL.

I don't think the Twins are attached to Topa as much as people around here seem to think. He's 34, and he has 1 successful year in his 5 year MLB career. He's never pitched more than 7.2 innings in an MLB season except 2023.

Posted

I think Spring Training will sort out the abundance of pitchers. Castellano's was PHI minor league pitcher of the year in '24. If he looks good in Spring I expect they make a trade and send Castellano to AA or AAA. That's one spot. I think a trade could probably net us at least one bat for our lineup either a platoon at first or in the OF. We all know injuries happen too. I just do not believe the MN Twins will have TOO MANY healthy and effective pitchers all year, no way. Injuries and inefficiency happens. It will work itself out. Btw, this is a good problem to have. Look what CLE did with a great pen last year.

Posted

I like Coulombe. Good move for the Twins.

How many bullpen spots - I think we're looking at 8...

Duran / Jax / Sands / Stewart / Alcala / Topa / Coulombe

Last spot goes to: Varland, Funderburk, Tonkin, Castellano, Henriquez, Headrick?

Posted
3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

We've known about this move for a week. You're going to be reading A LOT about Danny Coulombe in the coming days and YOU'RE GOING TO LIKE IT.

Seriously, though, that's how desperate we all are to talk about real baseball moves. Everyone lined up to analyze Danny-freaking-Coulombe.

If you have known about the move for a week,  why is it just now getting announce,  is there a secondary move or trade coming down that would affect the 40 man, or is this just 1 off move that took a while to process.   

Posted
30 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you have known about the move for a week,  why is it just now getting announce,  is there a secondary move or trade coming down that would affect the 40 man, or is this just 1 off move that took a while to process.   

We don't know what the delay was, it was confusing all of us for several days.

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