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On Tuesday morning, the Twins made their first major-league signing of the offseason. It only took three months, but by gum, they’ve done it. Danny Coulombe, the prodigal son, has finally returned to Minnesota. But in the numbers game that is a modern bullpen, there is no room at the inn, no seat at the feast, too many figs on the tree... something like that. Too many bulls!
Before Coulombe’s signing, there were already questions about the number of arms in the Twins bullpen. Given that he has an MLB deal and a guaranteed contract, his name must be written in pen. But what does that mean for everyone else?
Coulombe joins a list of names who cannot be sent down without first being waived—exposed to the other 29 teams for free. Those players will either make the Opening Day roster, start the year on the injured list, or be cut after spring training. That group also includes Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin, and Ronny Henriquez. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s four hurlers who cannot be sent down. They make it, or they’re probably cut.
There’s also Rule 5 pick Eiberson Castellano. If the Twins want to retain his services, he has to stay on the big-league roster or injured list all year (and even if he spends time on the IL, he needs to be on the active roster for at least 90 days). So, there’s five.
After that, we need to add in Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Jorge Alcalá, and Louie Varland. Varland probably goes to Triple-A by default at this point, but keeping the five guys locked into a spot would probably also necessitate sending both Topa and Alcalá to St. Paul. If the Twins want to have Topa and Alcalá on the Opening Day roster, the obvious moves would probably be to waive Henriquez and return Castellano to Philadelphia (or arrange a trade for him and then send him down). They could also waive Tonkin, whom they're paying $1 million. But those each kind of seem like a waste of resources. (Besides, it was waiving a recent signee on a cheap deal that lost the Twins Coulombe before!)
There are other names—like Kody Funderburk, Brent Headrick, Matt Canterino, Huascar Ynoa, Scott Blewett, Connor Prielipp, and Anthony Misiewicz—who might play a role in the bullpen this season, but we’ve already got our hands full with those top 11.
It’s totally possible that the Twins front office—who, mind you, have been watching the same teams we all have been—are prepping for inevitable injury concerns. Stewart missed most of the past two seasons despite dominating when healthy. Topa threw 2 1/3 innings last season. And relievers tend to get dinged up from time to time. It’s not the worst plan in the world to have more MLB arms than you can carry, but they’d seem to be banking on that being the case as soon as the doors open. At least one arm will need to be in the medical tent in order for the organization not to need to part with talent when you have 11 potential bullpen arms.
Of course, returning a Rule 5 guy to his original team happens more often than not. There’s reason to be excited about Henriquez, but he’s by no means established and could prove tricky to carry on the active roster for a full season. Even Tonkin has been passed around the league before, and it can happen again. But all of those do require serious thought; none of them can be taken back.
Beyond those concerns, or perhaps conversely, having five unoptionable guys in your bullpen can prevent a team from having their best bullpens, because if you dump them, you lose talent. Right now, there’s no semblance of a St. Paul shuttle for their relievers. They have five guys who can’t be sent down and five guys they probably don’t want to send down (especially Durán, Jax, and Sands).
The Twins have been criticized in recent years for being a bit too reluctant to part with struggling veterans who can't be optioned. A move like this certainly sets them up for similar practices and similar criticisms. It's just a little crowded right now, and it's not clear how they'll release the pressure.
Then there's the 40-man spot, given that the Twins' 40-man roster is full. Dropping Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano would clear a spot there, but the Twins might also try to keep all of their current pitchers. In that case, Michael Helman, Mickey Gasper, Matt Canterino, Jair Camargo, and Diego Cartaya might all be candidates. But if Tonkin, Henriquez, or Castellano were to eventually be cut for an active roster spot, that would effectively mean that two players were lost to make room for a lefty middle reliever.
There's probably an outside chance that this move could be the precursor to a trade, but who knows. They don't pay me enough to soothsay.
And also what does this mean for Chris Paddack? We have to ask that question whenever a pitcher moves, right?
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