The Twins May Have Dodged Disaster with Framber Valdez

The Twins wanted Framber Valdez this offseason. It was one of the biggest free-agent pursuits of the winter, and for a minute there, it looked like Minnesota might actually land the left-handed ace. Ultimately, Valdez signed a three-year, $115-million contract with the Detroit Tigers, leaving the Twins without the big pitching addition many fans were hoping for. It was a late lunge after an unexpected pair of major leadership changes during the winter; there just wasn't enough runway to land the plane.

According to Bobby Nightingale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins made a late pursuit of Valdez and put a multi-year offer on the table for the left-handed All-Star. Valdez was the last marquee free agent available, and signed on Feb. 10. Tom Pohlad later confirmed the pursuit and made it clear the Twins were willing to go well beyond their typical spending comfort zone if Zoll believed the move was right for the organization.

At the time, the Twins missing out on Valdez became another piece of evidence for those who believed Pohlad had talked a bigger game than he was actually willing to play. The team had reportedly made a serious offer for one of the best starting pitchers available, but Valdez ultimately chose Detroit, and later reporting made it clear that the team was never especially close to wooing the southpaw. The more we see from Valdez this season, however, the more it looks like the Twins may dodged a bullet.

There's no way around it: Valdez has been bad this season. Through 26 starts, the 32-year-old lefty has a 4.35 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. His 1.5 fWAR is hardly what the Tigers envisioned when they handed him a huge annual average value (AAV). His expected ERA sits at 4.50, suggesting his results are a fairly accurate representation of how he has pitched.

Even more concerning is what has happened to his ability to miss bats. Valdez has struck out just 17.4% of opposing hitters, the lowest rate of his career and a significant drop from last season. His whiff percentage has also fallen to a career-low 19.8%, down 6.8 percentage points from last year.

Those numbers are particularly concerning for the Tigers, because Valdez's success has always been built around generating weak contact while still having enough swing-and-miss ability to get out of trouble. His velocity has taken a step backward across his pitch mix, providing another potential warning sign. The Tigers have been one of the most disappointing teams in all of baseball this season, and the performance of Framber Valdez is certainly part of what has ailed the team.

Perhaps most concerning is that there isn't an obvious injury explanation for the dip in stuff. Valdez has remained in Detroit's rotation and hasn't missed time because of an injury. The only games he missed came because of the six-game suspension he served after intentionally throwing a ball at Boston's Trevor Story in May.

Valdez will turn 33 after the season, making it possible the Twins were looking at an aging pitcher whose best days are behind him. That doesn't mean he can't bounce back, but it makes committing more than $100 million to him considerably more frightening. The Tigers can probably survive the Valdez contract if it turns into a bad one. Detroit typically operates with a payroll that gives the organization more room to absorb a mistake of this magnitude. The Twins have very little margin for error.

We've already seen what happens when Minnesota gets locked into an expensive contract that doesn't work out. Carlos Correa's deal has become a perfect example, as the Twins eventually agreed to pay him $10 million per season for three years not to play for them. Imagine making a similar decision with Valdez while he's earning roughly $38 million per season.

There's also another reason the Twins may have been better off avoiding Valdez: they don't necessarily need to buy a starting rotation. Their pitching situation is actually set up fairly well for next season. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley are a locked-in trio to lead the starting rotation next season. They also have Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Connor Prielipp and Kendrys Rojas, while newly-added Dean Kremer provides another experienced option with another year of arbitration remaining. Had Minnesota signed Valdez, one of those young pitchers would almost certainly have been pushed out of the rotation picture. Instead, the Twins have flexibility to see what their young arms can do and determine where they actually need help.

There's certainly a fair argument that the Twins should have been more aggressive this offseason. Pohlad said he was willing to make a splash, and the organization ultimately didn't make the kind of major investment that would have demonstrated a dramatic change in philosophy. Valdez, however, is a different conversation. He comes with makeup concerns, which the team might have factored into its reluctance to go as far as Detroit did. He also comes with major performance red flags, and the smaller-payroll Twins were wise not to let him become a drag on their operation.

What do you think? Were the Twins lucky to miss out on Framber Valdez, or would you still rather have the veteran lefty locked into the rotation despite his struggles this season? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!