Should the Twins Bring Back Carlos Santana in 2025?

[Matt Braun]

Give him another one-year deal, or forget about it?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Carlos Santana has had a very nice season. The 38-year-old has defied traditional aging curves, riding his extraordinary understanding of the strike zone and vicious pull power to his best wRC+ in five years. He’s one of two batters on the Twins with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title; he leads the team in homers; he leads the team in walks; he’s fourth among their hitters in fWAR. Hell, Santana has even stolen four bases without being caught. He's been a blessing for a squad decimated by injuries and stuck in a bog of mediocre hitters overwhelmed by extended roles.

Plus—and this is the part none of us expected, to quite this extent—he’s provided tremendous defense at first base, probably good enough to nab the team’s first Gold Glove since Byron Buxton and Brian Dozier won in 2017.

So, as the season winds down and the winter looms, let’s consider whether the team should bring Santana back for another go-around.

Who are the other 1st base options in free agency?
First base is set to be big on name-brand talent, and perhaps a bit light on actual production. A list can be found here, but I’ll dole out the skinny: the main attractions are Paul Goldschmidt, Pete Alonso, Josh Bell, and Christian Walker. (I’m betting on the Yankees picking up Anthony Rizzo’s $17 million option, but given his age and recent injury record, he wouldn't rank with the others listed here anyway.)

You know Goldschmidt—he’s a possible Hall of Famer—but he’s also at the tail end of his worst year as a pro. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and his OPS is dangerously close to starting with a six. He may bounce back, but I would bet on his goose being thoroughly singed.

Then we have Pete Alonso. The Twins are not ponying up for Pete Alonso.

That leaves two Diamondbacks: Walker and Bell. Walker is a fascinating player who, with enough squinting, looks something like a younger Santana, with his power bat and excellent defense. He would be a truly interesting multi-year target, but again, the pessimist in me remains skeptical that the Twins would meet his asking price. So it goes. Finally, we have the man abandoned by both the 2023 Guardians and 2024 Marlins, Josh Bell. That both squads deemed him unable to aid them tells you everything you need to know. He's superb at having half a good season, but has never had a full year of consistent productivity, and the Twins are unlikely to profit from gambling on changing that.

If you’re the Twins—unlikely to shell out much for a formidable thumper—Santana and the depressed salary he would command as an old player in a young man’s game seem like an attractive option. He probably wouldn’t sign for much more than his 2024 salary. The league just doesn't change its mind and double the demand for players as they approach age 40.

Ok, but what about the internal options?
José Miranda is the most likely heir to take over at the cold corner. His bat has returned to “oh yeah, this guy can hit” form, with a 120 wRC+ over 117 games, and he’s still in pre-arbitration. Given his putrid defensive metrics at third, it might make sense to go the Miguel Sanó route and bite the bullet, permanently moving him to the more lethargic position. The Twins love positional flexibility, though, and banishing Miranda to first would violate that principle. I think they’ll give him as much time as possible to prove himself incapable of handling the hot corner. (For the record, this is the path I see as most likely, in case the team doesn’t re-sign Santana.)

Other than that, Minnesota only has Alex Kirilloff—who can’t be depended on for anything at this time—and Yunior Severino, whose placement on the 40-man roster and complete lack of any major-league playing time tells you everything you need to know about how the Twins value him.

Anything on the trade block?
This is always a murky topic to investigate; we simply don’t know which players are actually available. Nor do we hear the web of conversations executives engage in. We can only guess.

Andrew Vaughn would be a fascinating buy-low candidate, if the White Sox were willing to deal within the division. Yandy Díaz could be another player in a long line of solid contributors deemed too expensive by Tampa Bay, which is a bit funny to say as a Twins fan, but Minnesota hasn’t become that poor yet. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wouldn’t make much sense on this team and would never happen, but it sure would be fun!

Huh, it sure seems like options are limited, then.
I would agree! Keeping Miranda as the future first baseman appears to be a logical move, but given that we can only tepidly write Royce Lewis in as the everyday third baseman, it might be wise for the team to keep their depth built at the position. Brooks Lee’s cup of coffee certainly hasn’t pushed anyone to move heaven and earth to keep him in the majors, either.

Given their alternatives, yeah, bringing back Santana for one more circuit of the sun seems like one of their only avenues. He’ll be 39 around the start of 2025—one of the only players left in MLB alive before the Twins won a World Series—which is probably the only concern surrounding Santana. Father Time is undefeated. But, his style of play has augured a beautiful aging curve so far—and he could very well become the team’s new Nelson Cruz.

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[bean5302]

No.

He'll be 39 and is having his best season in 5 years. He'll probably end the year with a wRC+ around 115 this year which was far beyond all reasonable projections. Expecting a WAR of 0-1 next year would be reasonable. From a performance standpoint, I'd certainly bet on Jose Miranda will be the better player at 1B.

Beyond that, the Twins are expected to be in a straight up payroll crisis this offseason, and I think Santana will likely secure another $5-8MM single year contract. There's no money for the current roster, let alone Santana.

 

[Craig Arko]

Tempting, but no. They need to spend any available coin on pitching.

[NYCTK]

Front office says they can't afford it...

But seriously, I don't know what this team is going to do. Not only is Pablo due a big raise, with him, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, Duran, Jax, Stewart, Alcala, Jeffers, Lewis, Larnach, and Castro all due significant raises, that's about $40 Million additional dollars tied up. 

$40 Million extra just to retain the current, struggling roster. 

[thelanges5]

Julien/Miranda platoon. Spend all available $$ on arms. There won’t be much to go around. 

[gman]

Expect first base to be manned by Miranda, Kirilloff and possibly Lewis or Julian. I think Santana signs for whatever he can get from a team with greater chances of advancing in the playoffs.

[1985Fan]

No. They’ll not afford the money Santana will require. Have to go internal options. For the record, Miranda is not a good first basemen, so moving his problematic defense from 3rd to 1B is not realistic. They’re going to have to start emphasizing defense to help out the pitching staff, instead of penalizing them. I don’t know if Severino is a good glove at 1B, I’ve read/heard his defense is not good. Another player they’ve moved around the infield with flexibility as a priority instead of defensive competence or excellence. 
I’d vote for a trade to get a 1B with a good bat and glove. 

[PatPfund]

Hated Santana early, but then he started to hit, and he has turned into pretty much the only offseason move that worked out for the Front Office. Still, I can't see him back; the Twins' biggest need last offseason was a starting pitcher, they skipped that for spending on a few veteran bats (Santana, Margot, Farmer), and marginal veteran 'pen arms all since cut/rattling-around-the-minors.

Only way I see Santana back is if the Twins acquire the (still) needed SP using some of the internal solutions. Which I don't think includes Kirilloff; I think there is a greater chance he retires this offseason or is DFA'd to make 40-man space than the Twins count on him as a key lineup piece.

[karcherd]

Need to quit solving 1B on a year to year basis.  Either give Miranda/Julien/Kiriloff the keys to 1B or move on from them and bring in a long term solution that will be above league average replacement value.

[DJL44]

Lewis and Miranda are both corner infielders. Julien has the physical tools to play 1B and is stretched anywhere else. Kirilloff might even get another chance. I expect the 2025 infield to be Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Castro and Lee. It is more likely they add to the outfield than to the infield.

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Lewis and Miranda are both corner infielders. Julien has the physical tools to play 1B and is stretched anywhere else. Kirilloff might even get another chance. I expect the 2025 infield to be Correa, Lewis, Miranda, Julien, Castro and Lee. It is more likely they add to the outfield than to the infield.

2 gaping holes out of 6 players.

[chpettit19]

31 minutes ago, 1985Fan said:

No. They’ll not afford the money Santana will require. Have to go internal options. For the record, Miranda is not a good first basemen, so moving his problematic defense from 3rd to 1B is not realistic. They’re going to have to start emphasizing defense to help out the pitching staff, instead of penalizing them. I don’t know if Severino is a good glove at 1B, I’ve read/heard his defense is not good. Another player they’ve moved around the infield with flexibility as a priority instead of defensive competence or excellence. 
I’d vote for a trade to get a 1B with a good bat and glove. 

Neither Severino nor Miranda were moved around the infield with flexibility as the priority. They were moved down the defensive spectrum because they couldn't field the other positions. That's minor leagues 101. 

[Greglw3]

100% Yes.

He’s the Twins best clutch hitter, takes the best at bats of any Twins hitter consistently and has pounded 22 HR with the near certainty that he wins the Gold Glove at 1st base.  And he deserves it.

I guarantee if the Twins let him go they won’t find such a dynamic, fundamentally sound, clutch, gold glove winning player at 1st base.

[howeda7]

Given the payroll restraints, no. He will cost $8-10 million and likely decline in performance. His defense has been even better than expected though.

[karcherd]

He has had two good months and been league average the rest of the time.  He needs to be a defensive replacement and starting only against LH pitching.  He has had his moments, but he should not be one of the leaders in AB's for a playoff team.  Wait we may not be a playoff team, point taken.

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, Greglw3 said:

100% Yes.

He’s the Twins best clutch hitter, takes the best at bats of any Twins hitter consistently and has pounded 22 HR with the near certainty that he wins the Gold Glove at 1st base.  And he deserves it.

I guarantee if the Twins let him go they won’t find such a dynamic, fundamentally sound, clutch, gold glove winning player at 1st base.

He's also going to be 39. Odds are more likely than not that Carlos Santana won't be as good next season. It's likely that Santana will be less dynamic, clutch and worse at fielding.

[TwinsDr2021]

I would say no, but if the he and Twins do damage in the playoff (if they make it) then I would assume he would be back, but that is the only scenario where I see it.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Julien/Miranda platoon. Spend all available $$ on arms. There won’t be much to go around. 

The team can't hit as is. Alrighty then.

[DocBauer]

WILL they bring him back? If he's in that $4-5M range they might. Good teammate, leader, and locker room guy. The defense is excellent. And there's no clear cut #1 option. But they might look to spend that $4-5M elsewhere. I'd say 40% chance he's back, IMO.

SHOULD they bring him back? In 2020-21-22 his bat was pretty bad. Awful if you consider production from a premium offensive position. But a funny thing happened in 2023, his age 37 season. He suddenly didn't stink again. Now, a 101 OPS+ for a 1B and an OPS in the .740's doesn't exactly scream All Star, but he was solid. In a complete surprise to me, he remained a full time player this season and the Twins basically got the same player in 2024 that he was in 2023.

He was a nice surprise.

As of now, 10 of the 13 position player spots for 2025 are filled, if you accept a healthy Lee taking a spot. If you squint hard you can see Julien and Martin being leading candidates, but I'm not writing either in ink at this point. 

Unfortunately, nobody is a viable, experienced, 100% proven 1B. That means room for Santana. But even at a low salary, do they want to bet on a 39yo repeating what he did this season? And while $ probably won't allow it, shouldn't they aim for higher production? 

No. They shouldn't bring him back. They SHOULD aim higher. And if not, they should have a cheaper, younger option internally. But doubtful they spend $. And while Miranda might be a solid option, Julien's offense went in the tank, Kirilloff can't stay on the field, and there's nobody at AAA seemingly ready. 

I want better, or younger with potential. But I don't know if i see it right now. So maybe they should bring him back.

But I don't want it to happen. Thank you Mr Santana, but we're going better, younger, or both. A guy can hope right?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Tempting, but no. They need to spend any available coin on pitching.

Agreed. Plus, the payroll is going down by 20 million or so I'd guess.....can't spend any money on a 1B when they need SP and are cutting payroll.

[jkcarew]

Probably the team’s MVP this year, right?

And, no.

[NYCTK]

56 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Agreed. Plus, the payroll is going down by 20 million or so I'd guess.....can't spend any money on a 1B when they need SP and are cutting payroll.

I don't know if that's even possible. They would need to trade Pablo or Correa. Trading Correa seems pretty difficult, so...that would require trading away Pablo Lopez. 

[CRF]

I'm gonna vote no. Stick Miranda at 1B and leave him there. Spend whatever available cash they have on arms, and I'm sure they'll be dumpster diving on that too. 

[Doctor Gast]

FA?- Ridiculous

Trade?- Why?

Santana? Because management loves his defense? 

In-house production? Absolutely yes! The potential of Miranda, Kiriloff & eventually Julien are phenomenal their future is at 1B because the INF & cOF are full. I'm sure Santana's defense wasn't that good until he got steady time at 1B. Miranda, Kiriloff & Julien's time at 1B has been very sporadic, how can they become good if they don't have much experience there? This season was the ideal time for Miranda, Kiriloff & Julien to finally get some substantial time to start to perfect their defense at 1B. But because of Santana fixtured at 1B, this season has been wasted. Why pay a premium over this unnecessary salary to make the same mistake? Yes, Santana had some good ABs after some horrific ones but it was same an economic & developmental mistake.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

The potential of Miranda, Kiriloff & eventually Julien are phenomenal

Are you talking about the same Alex Kirilloff who can't get healthy enough to play baseball? He's behind Severino on the depth chart.

[Road trip]

18 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

Probably the team’s MVP this year, right?

And, no.

I mean... maybe he's the MVP?  And that says a lot about what a weird year it has been for the Twins, because based on OPS he's their 6th best hitter.  He just happens to be the only guy in that bunch who can stay healthy and play every day (or avoid the minors, see Wallner, Matt).  With such an odd year for the lineup I'd give co-MVPs to Ober and Pablo.

Like others I'm both stunned and pleased by his resurgence.  But like others I'm also a no on bringing Santana back.  Can't afford to spend limited payroll dollars on a 39 year old.

[RpR]

34 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Miranda, Kiriloff & Julien's time at 1B has been very sporadic, how can they become good if they don't have much experience there? This season was the ideal time for Miranda, Kiriloff & Julien to finally get some substantial time to start to perfect their defense at 1B.

Why?

To show how truly bad to mediocre they really are?

Julien should Never have left AAA.

Miranda is no worse at 3rd base than Lewis  , so the Twins really need a good 3rd baseman also.

[BH67]

3 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

Tempting, but no. They need to spend any available coin on pitching.

Given Falvine's atrocious record in gauging the health of pitchers in free agency before signing them, are you sure? :-)

I can't surmise the answer until I know if Rocco is returning, and by extension Falvine. I don't see how the Pohlads keep Rocco if the Twins miss the playoffs.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He's also going to be 39. Odds are more likely than not that Carlos Santana won't be as good next season. It's likely that Santana will be less dynamic, clutch and worse at fielding.

Hmm, he is then imitating Julien, Lewis, Kirilloff, Martin and Lee.

[USAFChief]

No.

They hit on 17 and caught a 3.

Let's not hit on 18 next year.