Resetting Expectations for Carlos Correa

[Nick Nelson]

If he makes it back at all this year, the Twins probably need to be hoping for their All-Star shortstop to help them in the playoffs, rather than helping them get there.

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Carlos Correa was having one of the best seasons of his career. He was on a scorching midsummer heater -- slashing .360/.418/.596 in his previous 35 games -- when he was scratched from the lineup 90 minutes ahead of game time on Jul. 13 with a bruised heel. Days later, he was diagnosed with the dreaded plantar fasciitis, which severely diminished his play for most of last season, albeit on the other foot.

Correa and the team initially expressed optimism that this would be a less serious ordeal.

"It doesn't look as severe as it did last year," said Rocco Baldelli at the time. Sadly, their optimism was misgiven. This has developed into one of the most significant injuries of Correa's career, threatening to shut down his amazing age-29 season and cast long-term concern for a foot that was a subject of much scrutiny during Correa's free-agent odyssey.

It's now been 48 days since the shortstop played a game, and there's no end to his absence in sight. Weeks and weeks have passed without meaningful updates on a concrete timeline. Correa admitted to reporters last weekend that he experienced a "minor setback" earlier this month, and still wasn't able to run at full speed or in cleats.

In his Wednesday article for The Athletic, Dan Hayes shared that, per a Twins source, "Buxton [is] much closer to rejoining the big-league club than the All-Star Correa, who is making only incremental progress." Even at that, "Buxton might not begin a rehab assignment until early next week."

If Buxton is considered "much closer" to returning than Correa, and he's not even poised to start a rehab assignment until the first week of September, what does that imply? We're running out of time for "incremental progress" to result in a return to play. Reading between the lines, it feels like the Twins are shifting their objective from trying to get Correa back for a late-season push to getting him back for the actual playoffs, in some capacity, if they're able to get there.

That last part may be a tall order. The Twins are now just three games ahead of Boston for the final playoff spot, and while Boston's not an especially great team, neither is Minnesota minus its best player. The Twins have hung in there admirably in Correa's absence, but heading into their eighth week without the team MVP, they appear to be falling apart at the seams. 

On the bright side, the schedule is about to get much easier, and the Twins still do have some cushion for that last Wild Card berth. Even if pushing to overtake the division without Correa feels less realistic, they still have a chance to hang on and get him back in time to make an impact when it matters most, just like last year.

At this point, that seems to be our best hope. Unfortunately, it's time to come to grips with the reality that Correa probably is not going to make it back to have much of an influence on the outcome of the regular season.

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[Road trip]

Sometimes it feels like the franchise is cursed.

The beanball ending Puckett's career.

Koskie's concussion, followed by Mauer's concussion, followed by Morneau's concussion, all of them career redefining if not quite career ending.

Plenty of others I could mention as well..

My dad, a hardened Dakota farmer who had seen his share of crop failures, would frequently say that "it probably won't rain again this year".  This dialogue usually started around July 1.  It was his way of coping with disappointment, and allowed him to be pleasantly surprised by the too rare July and August rains.

At this point I have decided to expect nothing from Correa, ever again.  That way if we actually do get something this year or next I will be pleasantly surprised...

 

[LambchoP]

It just seems real sad to me that our teo "superstars", our highest paid players, can't be bothered to play these very important games to get us into the playoffs. But, if the rest of the team is able to rally and get us in as a wildcard team, both Correa and Buxton will swoop in at the last moment to play in the playoffs in front of a national audience. Not a good look, our highest paid players are way too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time. I know Bucks contract has incentives, but I bet these injuries and timelines would be completely different if they're contracts were dependent on amount of games played. Buxton will always be a half season type of player and Correa is moving in that direction too. If the Twins, a team with serious payroll limitations, are going to pay 50 million dollars per year on two part time players, it's going to be real tough to field a competitive team around them. You have to include Lewis in this discussion as well. Long story short, our three best players are essentially only going to be part time players because of injuries:(

[chpettit19]

9 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

It just seems real sad to me that our teo "superstars", our highest paid players, can't be bothered to play these very important games to get us into the playoffs. But, if the rest of the team is able to rally and get us in as a wildcard team, both Correa and Buxton will swoop in at the last moment to play in the playoffs in front of a national audience. Not a good look, our highest paid players are way too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time. I know Bucks contract has incentives, but I bet these injuries and timelines would be completely different if they're contracts were dependent on amount of games played. Buxton will always be a half season type of player and Correa is moving in that direction too. If the Twins, a team with serious payroll limitations, are going to pay 50 million dollars per year on two part time players, it's going to be real tough to field a competitive team around them. You have to include Lewis in this discussion as well. Long story short, our three best players are essentially only going to be part time players because of injuries:(

Didn't Correa play through the same injury last year? On his land foot instead of drive foot, too. And didn't he have his worse season of his career. Do you think they're faking their injuries? 

There's a couple of you who keep posting this stuff everywhere. What do you think the situation is? They could play like their usual selves but are just choosing not to? What does it mean to be "too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time?" Do you want a Correa who's going to put up a .675 OPS and play bad defense just to prove he's dedicated to his team and not "comfortable sitting on the IL?"

What does it mean that they "can't be bothered to play these very important games?" Honest question. Do you honestly believe they could be playing at a decent enough level and are just happy collecting checks instead? You think they faked their MRIs? Correa actually could sprint at 100% but is pretending he can't? 

The Royals just announced Vinnie Pasquantino is out 6-8 weeks. Is he also "too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time?" He "can't be bothered to play these very important games?"

[Brandon]

8 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

It just seems real sad to me that our teo "superstars", our highest paid players, can't be bothered to play these very important games to get us into the playoffs. But, if the rest of the team is able to rally and get us in as a wildcard team, both Correa and Buxton will swoop in at the last moment to play in the playoffs in front of a national audience. Not a good look, our highest paid players are way too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time. I know Bucks contract has incentives, but I bet these injuries and timelines would be completely different if they're contracts were dependent on amount of games played. Buxton will always be a half season type of player and Correa is moving in that direction too. If the Twins, a team with serious payroll limitations, are going to pay 50 million dollars per year on two part time players, it's going to be real tough to field a competitive team around them. You have to include Lewis in this discussion as well. Long story short, our three best players are essentially only going to be part time players because of injuries:(

resetting expectations on the return of your 50 million per season investments.  ouch

[Rod Carews Birthday]

8 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

It just seems real sad to me that our teo "superstars", our highest paid players, can't be bothered to play these very important games to get us into the playoffs. But, if the rest of the team is able to rally and get us in as a wildcard team, both Correa and Buxton will swoop in at the last moment to play in the playoffs in front of a national audience. Not a good look, our highest paid players are way too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time. I know Bucks contract has incentives, but I bet these injuries and timelines would be completely different if they're contracts were dependent on amount of games played. Buxton will always be a half season type of player and Correa is moving in that direction too. If the Twins, a team with serious payroll limitations, are going to pay 50 million dollars per year on two part time players, it's going to be real tough to field a competitive team around them. You have to include Lewis in this discussion as well. Long story short, our three best players are essentially only going to be part time players because of injuries:(

Just to clarify, is your explanation that Buxton and Correa (and maybe Lewis) just don't want to play and aren't trying to get out there to help the team, instead preferring to only come back when the national spotlight is on them in the playoffs?

Wow.  Just wow. 

Professional athletes are performers.  They have spent their entire lives, often at the expense of other endeavors, attempting to get themselves to the highest stage (professional sports) in order to show what they can do.  There is an amount of pride and competitiveness in these people that overrides pretty much everything else, including money (your suggestion not-withstanding).  They absolutely perform for the money, but there is a whole lot more of their being tied up in being a successful athlete than a paycheck.  It is nonsensical to suggest otherwise. 

[D.C Twins]

I wonder what the MRIs of Correa's feet showed during his medical examinations which lead to 2 other clubs backing out of signing him. 

It is possible that there was evidence of mild chronic inflammation there already. 

Chronic foot problems are very difficult to overcome....

[chinmusic]

47 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Royals just announced Vinnie Pasquantino is out 6-8 weeks.

I hadn't heard.  That's very significant for K.C and the Twins. This pun is not really intended, but it's a bit of a break for Minnesota.  Slightly less protection for Junior. Hmmm, though there is Salvy.

My response was really intended to be about your comments. Thanks for the rational post. Much appreciated.

 

[bean5302]

7 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

I wonder what the MRIs of Correa's feet showed during his medical examinations which lead to 2 other clubs backing out of signing him. 

It is possible that there was evidence of mild chronic inflammation there already. 

Chronic foot problems are very difficult to overcome....

First of all, both the Mets and the Giants still wanted him, they just wanted to use the medical evaluation as a way to reduce his price. The Twins got Correa at the reduced price.

[Schmoeman5]

Any time the Twins say "getting close"  add 6-8 weeks. How is it that EVERY injury is worse than originally announced? It's not possible.  Set backs my ask. Topa Stewart Correa Buxton Just more lying. And they were upset with Kirilloff for not being forthcoming. Or so the story goes. You reap what you sow. That 6 for 200 is starting to show cracks. And if the Twins do somehow get into the postseason without them. Just shut them down. Unless they're 100%. If they can't contribute in the drive to the post season at less than 100% then they don't need to contribute in the postseason at less than 100% as well.  Lewis is struggling. I believe because he's not healthy right now. And he's not helping in any way because of it.

[bean5302]

Sounds like Correa is going to need to get some custom shoes/orthotics and work on his preparation going forward to avoid this type of injury now that he knows he's susceptible to it. Correa has delivered 3.6 fWAR so far this year. Maybe has an outside shot at 4.0 WAR on the year, which isn't far off from what the Twins expected when they signed him. There were significant injury limitations for Correa in years prior to him signing with Minnesota in 2022. I'm not sure what the Twins' strategy is on Correa, but I'd be willing to bet they're driving the slow treatment process, not Correa. If they asked him to speed it up and say, I think this is as good as we're going to be able to get it this year and we can't risk missing the playoffs, I'd bet money Correa would be in St. Paul the next day.

Buxton is an 80 game a year player. I don't understand why people are acting surprised. Like, at all. This is what happens with Buxton. He's a 10 year veteran who has played more than 92 games at the MLB level only once in his 10 year career (7 years ago in his age 23 season). Everything over 80 games is gravy. Everything over 100 games should be looked at as a career year going forward. Anything over 120 games would be an outright miracle. This is why it was critical the Twins acquire (and always have) a starting caliber center fielder option on the roster to back Buxton up. They didn't do that, and the team is suffering as a result.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins clearly have injury issues. The Twins have clearly had injury issues for quite some time. 

I will even go as far to say without researching it. When it comes to the talent that we have lost due to injury... we may have had it worse than the majority of the other 29 baseball teams. 

However... I'll add as strongly as I can add. All major league teams have to deal with significant injuries. 

All teams must build their roster in anticipation of injuries. Failure to do so results in failure plain and simple. 

You have to look beyond your starting 9, beyond your 5 man rotation, beyond your 3 best bullpen arms when putting your team together. 

 

[big dog]

What's the return policy at the Dior store? Asking for a friend.

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, big dog said:

What's the return policy at the Dior store? Asking for a friend.

https://www.dior.com/en_us/fashion/couture-boutique-advantages

Quote

Orders may be returned or exchanged with the label provided within 30 days of reception subject to conditions. Our Boutiques can also post the return package on your behalf.

I think we're past 30 days. Do you have the receipt?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins clearly have injury issues. The Twins have clearly had injury issues for quite some time. 

I will even go as far to say without researching it. When it comes to the talent that we have lost due to injury... we may have had it worse than the majority of the other 29 baseball teams. 

However... I'll add as strongly as I can add. All major league teams have to deal with significant injuries. 

All teams must build their roster in anticipation of injuries. Failure to do so results in failure plain and simple. 

You have to look beyond your starting 9, beyond your 5 man rotation, beyond your 3 best bullpen arms when putting your team together. 

 

I think you are correct.  The injury bug has bit the Twins in a nasty way, perhaps in a way more severely than some other teams.  However, all teams have to deal with the same issue.  Yes, the solution is to have the best roster in anticipation of injuries, but that only works if you happen to plan for the right ones, which is difficult at best.  Injuries will happen and will negatively impact the team.  There is probably an upper limit to what you can plan for, particularly in defensively sensitive ones like CF, SS, and the starting rotation.

[bean5302]

9 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

...However, all teams have to deal with the same issue...

They really do. Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year.

[Doctor Gast]

Correa's situation is very frustrating & baffling, which you never know what to expect. We need him on the field.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

It just seems real sad to me that our teo "superstars", our highest paid players, can't be bothered to play these very important games to get us into the playoffs. But, if the rest of the team is able to rally and get us in as a wildcard team, both Correa and Buxton will swoop in at the last moment to play in the playoffs in front of a national audience. Not a good look, our highest paid players are way too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time. I know Bucks contract has incentives, but I bet these injuries and timelines would be completely different if they're contracts were dependent on amount of games played. Buxton will always be a half season type of player and Correa is moving in that direction too. If the Twins, a team with serious payroll limitations, are going to pay 50 million dollars per year on two part time players, it's going to be real tough to field a competitive team around them. You have to include Lewis in this discussion as well. Long story short, our three best players are essentially only going to be part time players because of injuries:(

"Can't be bothered to play" is not exactly the same thing as reality, which is "unable to play at the required level.".

[adjacent]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I think you are correct.  The injury bug has bit the Twins in a nasty way, perhaps in a way more severely than some other teams.  However, all teams have to deal with the same issue.  Yes, the solution is to have the best roster in anticipation of injuries, but that only works if you happen to plan for the right ones, which is difficult at best.  Injuries will happen and will negatively impact the team.  There is probably an upper limit to what you can plan for, particularly in defensively sensitive ones like CF, SS, and the starting rotation.

I think this is the difference between this year team and last year team. And that shows that the reduction in payroll is not "free". It is paid in roster depth. Last year there were injuries too, but my recollection was that the depth was better, both on the hitting and the pitching side. In the rotation right now we have 3 rookies that are performing admirably, but at least 2 of them would be in AAA completing their development, if not for injuries.

[lukeduke1980]

2 hours ago, Road trip said:

Sometimes it feels like the franchise is cursed.

The beanball ending Puckett's career.

Koskie's concussion, followed by Mauer's concussion, followed by Morneau's concussion, all of them career redefining if not quite career ending.

Plenty of others I could mention as well..

My dad, a hardened Dakota farmer who had seen his share of crop failures, would frequently say that "it probably won't rain again this year".  This dialogue usually started around July 1.  It was his way of coping with disappointment, and allowed him to be pleasantly surprised by the too rare July and August rains.

At this point I have decided to expect nothing from Correa, ever again.  That way if we actually do get something this year or next I will be pleasantly surprised...

 

I feel your words should be the prologue of the 30 for 30 on the Minnesota Sports Curse.

[Original_JB]

Can we kill the tired "Puckett beanball" trope once and for all? The getting hit in the head had little to nothing to do with Puck's career ending; untreated Glaucoma (which he freely admitted he should have been going in for checks, esp as a black man) did. 

https://www.completeeyecaremn.com/kirby-pucketts-vision-loss-25-years-ago/

https://www.startribune.com/the-morning-kirby-puckett-woke-up-with-blindness-25-years-ago-changed-everything/600039470

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Didn't Correa play through the same injury last year? On his land foot instead of drive foot, too. And didn't he have his worse season of his career. Do you think they're faking their injuries? 

There's a couple of you who keep posting this stuff everywhere. What do you think the situation is? They could play like their usual selves but are just choosing not to? What does it mean to be "too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time?" Do you want a Correa who's going to put up a .675 OPS and play bad defense just to prove he's dedicated to his team and not "comfortable sitting on the IL?"

What does it mean that they "can't be bothered to play these very important games?" Honest question. Do you honestly believe they could be playing at a decent enough level and are just happy collecting checks instead? You think they faked their MRIs? Correa actually could sprint at 100% but is pretending he can't? 

The Royals just announced Vinnie Pasquantino is out 6-8 weeks. Is he also "too comfortable sitting on the IL for long periods of time?" He "can't be bothered to play these very important games?"

I don't understand this "too comfortable" take either, or the thumb down either for that matter. Are we so surrounded by conspiracies and hucksters that we believe ripped, broken, or otherwise incomplete body parts are not needed to play baseball? Can someone please explain how they come to this point of questioning the integrity of these highly competitive athletes? I'm willing to read a cogent argument from a different direction.

[mikelink45]

Quote

 a foot that was a subject of much scrutiny during Correa's free-agent odyssey.

I am ready for another barrage of thumbs down, but I will say again - the Twins have suffered a lot of injuries, but they have also chosen to sign or acquire injured players - The quote from the article indicates that there were injury concerns that were apparent to other teams and I do not buy the statement that the Mets were simply looking for a bargain.  If $30 million a year is a bargain I am at a loss.

But we have extended Buxton despite his injury record.  We have acquired Mahle, kept Pineda, and acquired Paddock despite knowing they would be out at least a year and I don't know what to say about DeSclafani who according to salaries listed on Twins salaries is the third highest.  

Vasquez, Kepler and Margot are tied for fourth on the salary list if you are interested. 

There are so many injuries in baseball that our list is not the worst - think of what has happened to first place Baltimore's and Dodgers rotations.   Or the Braves losing Strider, Acuna and Riley.  The Orioles, Reds, and White Sox have 13 on the injured list right now.   The Red Sox and Yankees have 11.   The Astros have 7 SP injured. The Mets have 14 on their list. 

In our division Cleveland has nine with Bieber and Karinchak being key pieces of their pitching staff.  KC has 10 players out with the new addition of Vinnie Pasquantino.  The Twins have 11 and we know the stars that are on the list.  

There are more teams that could be on this list, but I will stop there.  Do not tell me we are cursed, that we suffer more than other teams.  Just play the game and start winning against teams with records above 500!

[Rod Carews Birthday]

51 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am ready for another barrage of thumbs down, but I will say again - the Twins have suffered a lot of injuries, but they have also chosen to sign or acquire injured players - The quote from the article indicates that there were injury concerns that were apparent to other teams and I do not buy the statement that the Mets were simply looking for a bargain.  If $30 million a year is a bargain I am at a loss.

But we have extended Buxton despite his injury record.  We have acquired Mahle, kept Pineda, and acquired Paddock despite knowing they would be out at least a year and I don't know what to say about DeSclafani who according to salaries listed on Twins salaries is the third highest.  

Vasquez, Kepler and Margot are tied for fourth on the salary list if you are interested. 

There are so many injuries in baseball that our list is not the worst - think of what has happened to first place Baltimore's and Dodgers rotations.   Or the Braves losing Strider, Acuna and Riley.  The Orioles, Reds, and White Sox have 13 on the injured list right now.   The Red Sox and Yankees have 11.   The Astros have 7 SP injured. The Mets have 14 on their list. 

In our division Cleveland has nine with Bieber and Karinchak being key pieces of their pitching staff.  KC has 10 players out with the new addition of Vinnie Pasquantino.  The Twins have 11 and we know the stars that are on the list.  

There are more teams that could be on this list, but I will stop there.  Do not tell me we are cursed, that we suffer more than other teams.  Just play the game and start winning against teams with records above 500!

I don't know about the Twins "signing up for it" with injured players.  A lot (really a lot) of players have injury histories that never have problems again after they heal.  Think of the great pitchers that have had TJ surgery, recovered, and never looked back -- it's a long list.  The same goes for position player injuries.  I do agree with on you on the bottom line however.  Ultimately, the reasons why don't matter.  The Twins just need to win games somehow, with whatever cobbled together lineup they can muster on a day to day basis. With a month left in a playoff chase, now isn't the time to lament injured players. It's not going to be easy, but it would be really cool if the Twins can still pull it off. 

[chinmusic]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year

Maybe, but in terms of injuries plus not preparing for them (which requires spending), the Twins stand alone.

[Craig Arko]

Expectations managed.

[mnfireman]

I think if the team falls behind in the wildcard race Buxton and Correa's injury timelines will be adjusted.

[mnfireman]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

They really do. Some of the best teams in MLB have suffered far worse than the Twins in terms of injuries this year.

While this is true, the Twins biggest injuries have been at CF and SS, the team did not anticipate this and therefore have no MLB caliber replacement at either position.

[big dog]

12 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

While this is true, the Twins biggest injuries have been at CF and SS, the team did not anticipate this and therefore have no MLB caliber replacement at either position.

They did expect to have Lee and perhaps Lewis. Unfortunately we have to use Castro. 
And we had Margot!

[Sjoski]

Twins remind me of a guy who buys a Corvette, then has no money left over to build a garage for it.