Are the Twins Finally Buckling Under the Weight of Their Challenges?

I think so. 

Royce Lewis seems to have hit a wall as well. The Twins have done a great job all season but they're running on fumes. You can't have Carlos Santana, Matt Wallner, and Christian Vasquez leading the charge down the stretch. 

This team needs their big guys. Where are they? And why haven't we heard diddly-squat about return times? I was hoping they were all just getting "extended rests" but it looks like they all really are hurt, and hurt badly, and we'll be lucky to see Bux and Correa by the end of the year. 

Same old same old. 

Couldn't agree more!  This team is running on fumes and at this rate look like they could miss the playoffs entirely.  I was at the Cubs/Twins game when Ryan left due to injury - sort of the icing on the cake, so to speak.  No way this team is legitimate contender with 3 rooks in the rotation and our 2 most highly paid players sidelined indefinitely.

But there's a lot more to this meltdown than injuries.  Top of the list is the maddeningly ineffectiveness of Duran.  He has lost 8 games!!  Usually W/L are not critical stats for a closer, but when your ace has lost 8 games himself with 30 games left, there is little doubt he is at the top of the culprit list.  Isn't it time for Jax to take over?

Rocco has made so many inexplicable lineup and bullpen moves it's just mindboggling.  Just start with his use of Jax and Duran with a 6-0 lead on Saturday.  If Duran is wearing down why use him in a non-save situation?  His resting of their top hitters in a day game after a night game has been his set pattern since he started with the Twins.  At this point in the season, every game should be critical.

And let's not forget Falvine who sat on their hands all season without any meaningful additions.  If this team fails to make the playoffs, this is on the FO as much as anyone.  Of course, the Penny-Pinching - Pohlads set the table here with the cut in payroll and refusal to allocate $'s at the trade deadline.  Yes, there's plenty of blame to go around here!  And the Pohlads wonder why team attendance is down.

In a strange and ironical twist of fate, the contributions of Edo Julien could just well play a significant role in bringing the Twins back to the top of the AL Central. While he is not a particular favorite of mine and has had much chronicled issues on both sides of the ball thus far, his patience and potential for big hits could provide a boost at a time when most want him sent back to AAA.

The Twins need Julien to copy his July and September production from last season.

The bullpen is missing Stewart, a guy who hasn't topped 30 IP since 2017, otherwise what has plagued that unit is poor performance and inconsistency. 

Ryan's injury is the first extended absence for the rotation in 2+ seasons. It hurts, no doubt, but he's been gone for 2 weeks. Lopez has had a down season thus far, Varland flamed out, Ober has been solid, SWR has stepped up, and it's TBD with Festa/Matthews. 

The Twins have gotten more production, both with the glove and the bat, from Buxton this year, and he has already eclipsed his number of games played from last year as well. It's a dead horse, but the guy is consistently unavailable. Ditto for Lewis to this point in his career. Idk what to think about Correa missing time in back to back years with heel injuries. Larnach and Miranda have been healthy. Both catchers have been healthy again. It's been business as usual as far as health goes for the position players. 

Twins fans love to think this team is snake bitten, but you reap what sow when it comes to relying on guys who are oft injured with waiver wire fodder or platoon (at best) type guys tabbed as the next man up. Players missing time is part of the normal ebb and flow of a 162 game season. The "challenges," we're concerned about have much more to do with roster construction/strategy, a lack of investment, and inconsistent performance, i.e. they're self created.

Twins are currently 11th in most cash value of players lost this season by game ($30M) and tied for 9th in most players lost to injury to date (21), and 14th in games lost to injury (1,303). Cleveland and KC are doing much better on these metrics to date.

The Twins depth is definitely being exhausted and and they're struggling because of it. the starting pitching has actually held up pretty well, but losing someone like Ryan is a big blow. Losing so much time from Buxton, Correa, and Lewis (all stars, all producing very well this season when healthy) is a big blow. They've caught dings everywhere except catcher and 1B, and while they've had depth to cover, it's running out and we're stretching people. the bullpen looks gassed, and the need to hold someone like Varland ready to start is limiting the ability to get reinforcements in.

They might survive this, but it won't be easy. And this is exactly why the Twins were so cautious about moving on from someone like Margot, because they were frankly worried about running out of guys.

personally, I feel like this is where ownership and the front office let the team down in not getting real reinforcements for the bullpen, which turned into the biggest need.

Nah, just a rough patch.  We will find some good luck 🍀 and will win the division by 2-3 games.  

Q: How did Kirby Puckett, who played on artificial turf, rarely miss a game?  He only missed 15 games from 1985-1989. His following seasons were also impressive. Torii Hunters numbers are similar.

Yet today, seems like players are constantly injured. My theory is players are more concerned about their futures, staying on the field long-term to keep the pay checks coming than they are about the short-term. They think of themselves more as commodities and baseball as a business. Gamers like Puckett are far more rare today. MLB has changed. AND....who can blame them? If I was in their shoes, I'd probably think the same way.  

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The wheels are definitely coming off. As I mentioned in the game thread yesterday, the worst thing that could have happened to this team has now happened – Lewis has stopped hitting. That leaves a #2 - #4 lineup consisting of three guys who have less than a thousand MLB ABs, with Larnach at 888, Mirnada at 924, and Wallner at less than 500. We are regularly batting a glove first 38-year-old 1B whose primary talents are with his glove and drawing walks in the middle of the order. The lead off hitter is a utility guy and although Castro has done better than expected, he's a guy who should be batting in the bottom third of the order on a contending team. Kepler is what he is, a good glove #8 hitter, behind Jeffers at #7. The pitching is in much worse shape with three rookies in the rotation and a bullpen that basically has three reliable guys, two possibly reliable guys, and a cast of thousands. And that counts Duran as a reliable option, which he has not been lately.

The long MLB season has a way of exposing teams that lack depth. The Twins are one of those teams and it is showing right now. They still have a pretty good chance of making the playoffs, but could easily slide out of the postseason. I don't know what the story is with Buxton and Correa but it is looking more and more like they will not be back this season so we should probably forget about either of them riding to the rescue.

I see the reference to trying to catch Cleveland or Kansas City. I would argue that you are looking in the wrong direction. The key is whether they can hold off Boston for the last wildcard spot. Their lead for that spot is down to four games, probably three after they get hammered by Atlanta again tonight. To me, the big question is whether they can pull it together enough to win 87 or 88 games and slide into the postseason. I think that will require a big step up by some younger players. It's possible, but far from likely.

I'm said from the beginning of the season then I think this team is one year away from being a true contender. I think were finding that out now. We just don't have the depth to compete. As they pointed out in last nights game, it's not like the Twins have had more crucial injuries than the Braves, it's the other way around. The difference is that the Braves have depth and acquired some players, and the Twins do not. Lose tonight and we're 1-5 on this homestand with three on tap against Toronto who has been playing pretty well lately. We follow that with a trip to Tampa Bay and then Kansas City and you could easily see a 3-8 or 4-7 record in the next 11 games, probably enough to knock us out of a playoff spot.

I don't mean to be all doom and gloom, but this does not feel like just a slump where quality players will turn it around in short order. These last 10 games look much more like a true reflection of who this team is - decent to good, but just not quite good enough.

 

 

 

Excellent post!  No way did I take your assessment as "doom and gloom"--rather its spot on to where this team is at right now.  I'm (like all fans) beyond disappointed that Buxton and Correa continue to miss action.  I understand these are legit injuries, but Buxton missing 42 games and Correa missing now 57 games are one of the core reasons why this team is scuffling.

As many have noted--the #1 core reason why this team is in this position---struggling  to even make the playoffs--with a quick exit OR totally missing out if Boston or SEA takes the 3rd wildcard---is the absolute FAILURE of the Pohlad ownership to provide the financial resources necessary to field a playoff team with a legit chance to win in October!

What did the Pohlad ownership due in the offseason to upgrade this team?

1. Traded Polanco (which I was fine with) for a promising RP (Topa) and a washed up/injure prone SP in DeSclafini.   Result/Grade:  A big fat "F"---------I still have hopes for Topa, but he won't be make any impact over the last 30 games to help our beleaguered bullpen

2.  Traded for Manuel Margot as our 4th OF/starter against LHP.

Although a few bright spots they've been very few and far between as evidenced by his .646 OPS, woeful power (4 HRs/30RBI in 274 ABs and a -0.5 WAR).  Moreover, his defense is beyond substandard. His waffle iron for a glove makes Lew Ford look like a perennial gold glover.

My grade:  D---and I'm being generous

3. Signing of Carlos Santana as free agent

Well....1 out 3 is still pretty miserable.  Santana has been a godsend especially due to the total tank that Alex Kirilloff has turned out to be.  I may be in small minority, but count me in the camp of bringing Santana back on a 1yr deal to play 1B and platoon possibly with Miranda there.

Trade deadline moves:

As a former high school social studies teacher I never game a grade of a "F minus" to a student, but thats the grade I'd give the Pohlads for making the absolutely foolish/ignorant/ insert your own adjective----for the pickup of Trevor Richards.   Just a complete joke.  

What "message" does that send your players when they see pretty much EVERY contender in MLB make upgrades for the postseason and we pick up a beyond below average RP in Richards.

The failure of the Pohlad ownership is a slap in the face to the players, coaching staff and the fan base. We deserve better.

35 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Things really aren't looking good at the moment, as the injuries have sucked up pretty much every bit of depth that they had built up, and then some.  Depth is great, but when you are missing your best players, the production is going to take a hit when the replacement is a young guy, or a defensive replacement guy, or a AAA guy.  Sometimes, in the bullpen, it's just a "guy" who can be a warm body.  There's not much that can be done to fight that problem. 

We're watching Julien butcher balls at 2B, Martin struggle to track balls in CF, and Castro play a passable (at best) SS while Farmer and Margot, the two guys who were supposed to be the backup at premium positions have been deemed unfit to play there. Those two have combined for -1.3 bWAR this season. You're honestly telling me you can't do anything to fix that problem? 

26 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

So, basically you're saying, "if we had more good players who weren't injured, we'd be a lot better."  OK.  Let's get right on that.  We can only play the game with the team we have, not the one we'd like to have.  I would make the argument that the Twins have been hit pretty hard in the injury department to some pretty key players -- CF, SS, #4 Starter, #2 Starter, #5 Starter, 3B, Backup hotshot rookie SS, Top bullpen arm, etc.  Is it more or less than the teams hit hardest out there?  It's less than some, but more than KC and Cleveland, which are our primary concern right now.  

No, I'm saying that if you're going to rely on oft injured players (and there is nothing wrong with putting some faith in Buxton, Lewis, or Correa) you better have a contingency plan in place that's more than replacement level players or guys you could be signing to minor league deals.

If your opening day CF has a lengthy injury history, is a light hitting OF who happens to be a defensive liability and is only capable of starting 25% of the time a viable backup? Probably not. If you're relying on Brock Stewart to be a bullpen linchpin, does it make sense to fill half of your pen with journeymen/castoffs? Again, probably not. 

To put a point on it:

What type of production and/or how many games did you expect from Buxton before the season started? I'm guessing if I told you he'd post 3+ bWAR, play 90 games, and spend 82 of them in CF by late August you'd take that every single time. Now that he's started to break down it's bad luck? Oh, and the need to have an adequate CF option on the roster somehow came as a shock to the Twins? 

Lewis has played 124 career games in nearly 3 full seasons. Should we be surprised that he's been on the IL twice this year?

How many innings did you think the Twins were getting from Stewart?

How many innings did you expect noted ironman Chris Paddack to eat post TJ?

I hope you're not talking about DeSclafani with that #5 remark. When you trade for a guy with elbow issues (especially one who isn't good to begin with) it isn't awe shucks bad luck when those issues don't magically disappear. 

If you're counting the two week absence of Brooks Lee and his .640 OPS amongst the bodies you're stretching...

Is this team not fortunate that SWR has filled in for 100+ innings after Varland flamed out? Have the relative bounce backs from Miranda and Larnach not been favorable? Has Bailey Ober seemingly overcoming serious durability concerns not been a godsend? Ect, ect, ect. 

I'll say it again, despite the "woe is me," attitude many fans latch onto, this team doesn't have it that bad. 

34 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Perhaps I'm just not as outraged at the situation.  Many (not all) of those moves were reasonable ones at the beginning of the season, particularly under the budget restraints.  We're not signing big free agents.  We're just not.  I'm not woe is me, but that's a lot of things not working out -- a bit of a perfect storm in my mind. 

Many of the fixes you would like to make involve the team trading players/prospects.  I would support that, because all prospects (especially pitchers) are suspects until they are not.  However, when the trading time comes, the fans want to label anybody in the top ten as "untouchable" or "way too much to give up for player x".  Suffice it to say, they can't have done everything wrong.  The team still playing above projections. 

Nobody is asking for CC every offseason. Nobody is saying this organization is done everything wrong. C'mon....

In vacuum I'm sure you can justify any move. In reality, there was real reason to question Margot and/or Farmer's presence on the roster, or the back end of the pen, or actual SP depth before the first pitch was thrown opening day. 

There are so many comments here and elsewhere concerning the defensive shortcomings of various players. The comments that name Correa, Buxton, and Lewis as key players may be correct. Yet, they have a poor history of staying in the lineup on a daily basis. Injuries happen. 

A couple of thoughts that I have had about the organizational roster builds of position players. MLB is tough on hitters and the Twins have gone heavily toward guys who can or they hope will hit. Base-running, fielding, and fundamentals take a secondary role. Yes, the Twins want their players to play good defense but it isn't what they seek or scout out. Thus, we should almost expect the Twins to be a top 3-5 offense in scoring runs because of the near sole emphasis on offense. The Twins are close but that isn't enough unless the starters and bullpen is a shutdown outfit like Seattle. The team is bound to suffer when not scoring in bunches because the defense will consistently give away runs. This is a FO choice.

The other thought is that the ownership has likely learned their lesson on offering any contracts beyond three years. Buxton and Correa are dynamic players when they are fully healthy and on the field. The drop off to their replacements is pretty tough though. There is zero chance of any consideration towards giving Lewis any offers. He will be year to year. Yes, he can be tremendous but look at games played, games played in the field, at bats, his defense, and his inability to run. I feel for the guy because he is athletic but the important numbers are all small (G, PA, R, XBH). Can he heal totally and play 150 games per year for 4-7 seasons in a row? I hope so for his sake and as a baseball fan. The odds are long at this time.

So the Twins are doing pretty good. They seem to have a record above their talent level and are still expected to win more than the expected range of 82-87, from preseason guesses. The young starters are doing well too. I'm still believing in this team despite its current run of unfortunate games. 29 games to go and the team needs to go 16-13 mol.

Image captured of FO efforts to construct a pennant race/playoff ready bullpen. 

Shockingly, also the image of the Twins bullpen performance down the stretch.... 

Wednesday night's loss to Atlanta is this article in microcosm.

No doubt the injuries are impacting play on the field, however anyone that has watched/followed this team knew that Buxton, Correa, Kirloff and Lewis were all unlikely to make it through the season without a lengthy IL stint at some point. 

The Ryan injury definitely sucks, fortunately Festa and Matthews have pitched well and are gaining great confidence and experience. The starting rotation has been a bright spot IMO.

From the games I get to see the biggest issue is a lack of identity. What are they doing well. Sloppy defense, terrible at advancing runners and hitting with RISP, no team speed, a BP that has 1 -2 reliable arms and a manager that is so intent on his data driven philosophy that there are no set lineups, the closer being used in questionable situations, not allowing the best remaining hitters to face pitchers based on whether they are right or left throwing…. enough on Rocco

As I have said before, living in Wisconsin I end up watching a lot of Brewers games. What a difference in approach. Great defense, team speed, advancing runners, timely hitting, will do anything to get a runner in from third with less than two outs, a set lineup, best players play regardless of right/left matchups, defined BP roles and a manager that demands the fundamentals are executed. And yes they have had some big injuries and traded their best starter at the beginning of the season. Point being, you can win when you do the little things well… something we don’t seem capable of the majority of the time.

This just isn't a very good team. They're completely fine. If we ignore the White Sox for just a minute, the Twins are a .500 ball club. Which is exactly how they've seemed since we last played the White Sox after the trade deadline. They may or may not make the playoffs and it doesn't matter because they're not the type of team that is going to make a splash if they do limp in. 

And it does come down to terrible management. There's nothing more emblematic than their trade for Manuel Margot. Apparently their scouting is so bad that a complete liability in the field was an absolute mystery to them. The star CF who never stays healthy was paired with a backup that can't hit or field. And from what I can tell, isn't even much of a clubhouse guy. Not saying he's a cancer, but he seems aloof. 

KC and the Twins followed used some similar tactics.  The Twins spent their FA / extension money on Correa / Buston and Lopez.  The Royals spent their money on Perez / Lugo and Wacha.  Perez is playing great while Buxton and Correa are on the IL.  Lugo has been better the Lopez.  Wacha has been about the same.  Both teams landed an important part of their rotation by trading away players at the deadline.  

If we look at KC, I would conclude they have gotten more out of modest priced free agents.  They have stayed healthy, and they got one hell of a gift when they traded a rental for Reagans.  BTW … Lugo and Wacha were not at the top of the list here at TD.

Cleveland is getting absolutely zero contributions for free agents or proven players acquired by trade.  37% of their WAR is from drafted players.  22% from International drafted players.  41% from players acquired as prospects and they don’t have any free agents.  So, how does one look at Cleveland and their 107M payroll and a roster with no free agents and conclude the reason the Guardians are ahead in the standings is the Twins cut spending?

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

You think CC is just faking his foot injury? He could just run if he really wanted to?

Didn't say anything remotely close to that, or "think" it as you say.  

I was just commenting on the amazing player Puckett was. That's how you win two World Series. 

I do appreciate on this blog that most people are not putting words in other contributors minds or mouths.
 

21 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree with KirbyDome89 in one crucial way - the Twins are not any more snake bitten than anyone else. You only have to look at our current opponent. Atlanta has lost more talent to injury than we have but is playing better. The Orioles lost 3 starters, the Yankees were without Cole for several weeks and have had good players have poor years, the Guardians lost their #1 starter for the entire season, the Dodgers have basically lost their entire starting rotation and Mookie Betts for several weeks, the Brewers lost Yelich (their best player) to season ending surgery, etc.

Let's not play the "victim card" here; the Twins have not had more bad injury luck than anybody else. We just don't have the MLB ready depth that other contending teams do and weren't willing to sacrifice prospects to build it short term. It's a defensible strategy if you're playing more for the next few years than this year, long term over short term, but it means this unchecked and perhaps uncheckable slide is always a real possibility. We'll be lucky to slide into the playoffs this year but it will give a bunch of guys some crucial MLB experience. Which is better depends on your outlook.   

You are 100% correct about the Twins not being the only team suffering injury losses. The Brewers, for example, lost their 2 best starters before the season started (Corbin Burnes to Baltimore and Brandon Woodruff to season ending surgery). The best closer in the NL, Devin Williams, wasn't able to pitch until the end of July following surgery during spring training, and they have lost their most valuable player in Christian Yelich about a month ago to season ending surgery. Oh yeah, and they have a 1st year manager. Most non-Brewer fans would be hard pressed to name a single Brewer player. And they lead their division by 9 games and are 20 games over .500.