3 Factors That Worked Against the Twins at the Trade Deadline (Other Than Money)

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins came up empty once again at the trade deadline, despite being positioned as clear buyers with needs that were openly acknowledged by the front office. While it's clear that ownership's restriction on adding any payroll played a significant role, this wasn't the only factor holding them back.

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

It's unfortunate that the Twins missed out on their last chance to add significant outside help for the stretch run and (hopefully) into the playoffs. The fact that an ownership-imposed unwillingness to spend was primarily responsible for this inaction makes it all the more upsetting. Frustration from fans is more than justified.

However, there were other things at play in stymying the front office. You can make a case that even if they had some level of spending flexibility, the Twins would've been wise to bypass any significant moves that were available. The reality is, given their circumstances, opportunities did not line up very well for Minnesota at this trade deadline. 

Here are three factors that, from my view, likely contributed to the front office standing pat.

The market was limited (and ultimately ridiculous) for the upgrades they needed
Although they definitely came nowhere close to meeting it, the threshold for what really qualified as a meaningful upgrade for the Twins was pretty high. They have a balanced, complete lineup and a solid bench. They have at least three very good starting pitchers. They have a handful of relievers who've proven capable in the late innings.

To really get better, the Twins needed a legit No. 3 or above starter, and maybe a high-caliber back end reliever. There weren't too many of those guys available on the market, especially once teams like Texas opted not to sell. And seeing the prices for some who were moved ... no thanks.

Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi was one of the names most commonly connected to the Twins as a make-sense target, and it sounds like they did actively pursue him to some degree, but Kikuchi ended up going to Houston for a prospect haul that Minnesota's front office rightfully came nowhere close to beating out. 

 

Look, Kikuchi is a talented pitcher with some solid peripherals. But he also has a 4.75 ERA this year (4.72 career) and the Blue Jays didn't trust him to start in the playoffs last year, coming off his best season. What really is the reasonable upside for this two-month rental? 

Trading away a 23-year-old starting pitcher with any level of ability, let alone two additional prospects, for that kind of underwhelming addition is hard to view as a savvy move, but it's one that the Astros were pressed into making because they had a much greater need. The Twins will likely welcome the chance to face the lefty Kikuchi in the playoffs, if it comes to that.

Beyond Kikuchi, some the most compelling deadline options happened to be on teams that apparently had little interest in doing business with the Twins:

AL Central sellers were reluctant to trade within the division

As Dan Hayes of The Athletic explained in an appearance on Foul Territory TV, the White Sox took a hardline approach against trading with their rival, setting a laughable asking price for Erick Fedde when the Twins inquired. The notion of giving up Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez for a rental arm was rightfully laughed off. Frankly, I'm a little troubled that they would've considered even Luke Keaschall, if true.

 

It sounds as though similar dynamics were at play with the Tigers and Jack Flaherty. "[The Twins] got the sense, with both Detroit and Chicago, that they just didn't want to trade in-division," Hayes shared. "That does make it difficult. You don't want to see your rivals win."

The Twins were evidently willing to wade into those waters, despite the stakes being a bit higher for them as well. If, say, Fedde doesn't pitch brilliantly down the stretch and make a big difference in the playoffs (low likelihood, honestly), and you traded Keaschall for him, you're looking at a level of potential lingering follow-up pain that would make Spencer Steer blush.

Chris Paddack got hurt and Max Kepler's play has tailed off substantially 
This last factor, I guess, does come back to money. But it also illustrates the way various trends played out against the front office in their deadline quest.

Given the impetus to maintain a neutral payroll with any moves, unloading current commitments was going to be requisite for any significant add. The two most sensible candidates to dangle in a balanced salary swap? Paddack, owed about $9 million through next year, and Kepler, owed about $4 million through the rest of this year. 

If Paddack were healthy and pitching the way he was at times earlier in this season, he might have been appealing as a target for another playoff-minded team. Perhaps that played some role in motivating the Twins to activate him from the injured list in mid-July to showcase him ahead of the All-Star break. Whatever the reasoning, that decision didn't work out, as Paddack flashed the same inconsistent stuff and then quickly landed back on the injured list.

The idea of trading Kepler might have been appealing for two reasons. First: they have high-quality lefty hitters for both corners in Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner. Second: it would give them an opportunity to get something now for Kepler instead of nothing after the season, since they surely won't extend a qualifying offer.

If he was still mashing the way he did in the second half last year, or the early weeks of this season, Kepler may have stood out to another contending club, opening the door for a creative need-versus-need deal. But the outfielder's power stroke has gone amiss and he's reverted to mediocre form offensively, with a .244/.295/.349 slash line in his past 60 games. My understanding is that the Twins did explore some conversations with others teams involving Kepler, but obviously, nothing ended up coming together.

 

The good news, I suppose, is that Kepler and Paddack both have a chance to help the Twins get where they want to go this year. That's the overall outcome of another fruitless deadline: they Twins will need to rely on what they've already got.

"I believe in our group," Derek Falvey told reporters after coming up empty. "I feel like this is a group that we want to go to battle with.” Let's hope he's right. Then again, what choice did he have?

View full article

[D.C Twins]

In summary..... it was a big-time seller's market...

I was honestly OK with inactivity at this deadline (and I'm normally all about the instant gratification of the trade deadline!)

...and yes...this and the ownership being cheap can BOTH be true. 

[tony&rodney]

Watching Wichita play and Luke Keaschall looks pretty good, much better than Spencer Steer did at the same level, if a comparison works.

[IndianaTwin]

I definitely agree with the first two points. A little less convinced by the third. A corollary on the third is that if a Kepler had played better, there would be even less reason to trade him in a win-now situation.

Also important to remember when we make the "Team X got such-and-such, and all they had to give up was Player Y," comment is that by definition, the Twins had to offer something better than Player Y."

It's like in the offseason when people worked up and say that the Twins could have offered the same money that convinced some player to sign with an opponent. No, the Twins would have had to offer more money to get the guy to sign.

I wanted the Twins to trade for a starting pitcher. Given what we saw happen, I'm fine that they didn't.

[Jocko87]

35 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Watching Wichita play and Luke Keaschall looks pretty good, much better than Spencer Steer did at the same level, if a comparison works.

At the game right now, he does look like a ballplayer.  Unfortunately, as Nick indicates, it's an unwinnable situation in these parts.  I wouldn't be totally against trading Keaschall for a year and a half of a starter, the complementary pieces would have to be seen to see how well they did on that trade.

If, say, Fedde doesn't pitch brilliantly down the stretch and make a big difference in the playoffs (low likelihood, honestly), and you traded Keaschall for him, you're looking at a level of potential lingering follow-up pain that would make Spencer Steer blush. 

Can't win with a certain group who are determined to be on the opposite side no matter what.  Getting the other side now.

[USAFChief]

Someone is shoveling hoo-hah.

There's zero reason either Detroit or Chicago wouldn't trade a rental to the Twins. Detroit doesn't even play the Twins until 2025.

Both teams would be stupid to take a lesser return just to avoid trading in-division. Hell, they would likely welcome taking prospects out of the Twins system. 

I don't buy that story.

[Linus]

Obviously we don’t know what was discussed between the Twins and other teams. I’m not disappointed that they made a bad deal because they were desperate. But 65+ players were traded so somehow other teams found deals to their liking. 

[Jocko87]

8 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Someone is shoveling hoo-hah.

There's zero reason either Detroit or Chicago wouldn't trade a rental to the Twins. Detroit doesn't even play the Twins until 2025.

Both teams would be stupid to take a lesser return just to avoid trading in-division. Hell, they would likely welcome taking prospects out of the Twins system. 

I don't buy that story.

Now you're not buying stories?  Convenient, it seems.

White Sox did something dumb? Plausible at a minimum.

[USAFChief]

Just now, Jocko87 said:

Now you're not buying stories?  Convenient, it seems.

White Sox did something dumb? Plausible at a minimum.

I haven't bought that story since it was planted.

[Yawn Gardenhose]

Hayes has assumed the role of blocking tackle for the front office with an enthusiasm that is off-putting to say the least. Seems like that spirit has rubbed off on articles like this too. The narrative definitely jibes if you want to make the front office appear to not be utterly incompetent for the umpteenth straight trade deadline. 

The Wonder Boys just ain't good at this trade deadline thing, no matter how much regime-defending gloss you wish to smother on it.  

[Nashvilletwin]

The most disappointed people with our lack of activity at the deadline are most likely a handful of our “semi” top prospects and “up and downers” who weren’t moved and will remain platooners at best.  I’m sure at least a couple of them were hoping to go to a team who would play them every day, let them hit against both righties and lefties, and develop as true major leaguers. 

[Jocko87]

17 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I haven't bought that story since it was planted.

Still fog of war, will be interesting if the Pale Hose have a different story.  To assume it was planted, is a stretch.

The White Sox look terrible right now, if this isn't true I would expect some push back.

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

Hayes has assumed the role of blocking tackle for the front office with an enthusiasm that is off-putting to say the least. Seems like that spirit has rubbed off on articles like this too. The narrative definitely jibes if you want to make the front office appear to not be utterly incompetent for the umpteenth straight trade deadline. 

The Wonder Boys just ain't good at this trade deadline thing, no matter how much regime-defending gloss you wish to smother on it.  

It's three GMs, and one ownership group. Over decades. This isn't a one time thing. The Twins went big at the deadline one time under this ownership. Why would we think it's the FO?

[Mike Sixel]

It's a seller's market, but other teams made trades. This idea that no trades were possible seems weird to me. 

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's a seller's market, but other teams made trades. This idea that no trades were possible seems weird to me. 

To twist it that way, seems weird to me.

I don't think anyone is saying that?

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, Yawn Gardenhose said:

Hayes has assumed the role of blocking tackle for the front office with an enthusiasm that is off-putting to say the least. Seems like that spirit has rubbed off on articles like this too. The narrative definitely jibes if you want to make the front office appear to not be utterly incompetent for the umpteenth straight trade deadline. 

The Wonder Boys just ain't good at this trade deadline thing, no matter how much regime-defending gloss you wish to smother on it.  

This FO isn't bad at selling but to be buyers for a competitive team they really suck. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I haven't bought that story since it was planted.

Baseball is full of lore like that. 

July 29th, DeJong went from the White Sox to the Royals in a deal... Frankie Montas went from Cincinnati to Milwaukee with Weimer to Cincy. 

On July 27th... Jesse Winker went to the Mets from the Nats... Danny Jansen was traded from the Jays to the Red Sox. 

On July 26th... the Rays traded Eflin to the Orioles.

Michael A. Taylor played for the Twins just last season. Sawyer Gibson Long is on the 40 man roster of the Detroit Tigers. 

We put people in the broadcast booth who perpetuate such lore. 

Rays made a big deal today... Randy Arozarena was traded to the Mariners for a couple of prospects

He would have looked good in pinstripes. 

That wasn't going to happen. I'm sure the Rays had no interest in trading with a division rival so off to the Mariners he goes. Bye Bye Randy Arozarena... no longer a member of the American League East. 

There's a fly ball... left field... It's going to be an easy catch for ALEX VERDUGO. 

Randy Arozarena to the Yankees would just haunt the Rays over and over again. The Rays probably didn't even pick up the phone if Cashman was calling. 

Two outs now for the Phillies... JT REALMUTO coming to the plate to try and get something started.  

 

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Fedde isn’t a rental, and he is having a legit good season. But I have a hard time seeing the ask being one of our top 3. Not with what they actually got back for him. Something doesn’t add up for me.

It also makes me frustrated even more that they didn’t try for a playoff level starter this past offseason. The trade deadline is never going to be a given as you don’t know A) Who will be willing to sell at that time, B) Who will still be healthy and pitching well at the end of July, and C) which of your prospects will be playing well. It’s all a guess.

Hopefully the young guys can perform, be it Festa or Matthews or someone else. Their stuff all looks legit, but it all has to translate.

I also hope they are open to adding a playoff level starter this offseason even more now. Yes they have 3 guys who are going well (and I’d absolutely argue are throwing better than anyone who was traded at the deadline, absent Flaherty who the Yankees didn’t want to add due to his physical.) 
 

Still, even with all these what if’s, not doing anything feels like a gut punch and makes it really easy to be mad at ownership. 

[Riverbrian]

11 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

AL Central sellers were reluctant to trade within the division

As Dan Hayes of The Athletic explained in an appearance on Foul Territory TV, the White Sox took a hardline approach against trading with their rival, setting a laughable asking price for Erick Fedde when the Twins inquired.

If this was indeed the stance of the White Sox and the Tigers. 

Good for us.

Because it would mean that the AL Central has two General Managers in our division that are willing to take a lesser deal in order to remain a child instead of an adult professional trying to get the best deal for their organization. I love it when the opposition self imposes handicaps upon themselves for no reason. 

Obviously... this is a Twins - White Sox issue. They are probably pissed about Escobar turning into something so they said never again and all new GM's with no such baggage sign a pledge when they take the job so they have such Twins bug a boo baggage. There is also a rule in place that all GM's must stand on one foot and hop up and down in perfect 4/4 time while typing. Little rules in place to make the job just a little harder to do. 

The White Sox clearly hate the Twins but they are OK with the Royals. Chris Getz himself was traded from the White Sox to the Royals so Paul DeJong following in his footsteps is hunky dory. As long as its not the Twins. 

The baseball narrative is covered under piles of this type of garbage that purpurates the story of inept GM's. 

 

[chpettit19]

Count me among the skeptical about the idea that the Tigers and Sox wouldn't make realistic deals with the Twins. I don't buy it. Fedde has another year on his deal, but the Sox aren't dumb enough to think they're going to be competitive next year anyways. Flaherty is a rental. Taking a lesser package for either of them to keep them out of the division for a year you're not going to be competitive or the rest of this year would be horrible management. The only way the Sox were demanding Jenkins, Lee, or Emma is if they think Vargas would be the 4th best prospect in the Twins system. I don't think they believe that, but I suppose it's possible.

[Doctor Gast]

This was definitely a seller's market. We could have sold some veteran pieces like other teams did & came out ahead on paper, and got rid of some payroll (like was done with Polanco). But in most cases that would disrupt the chemistry of the clubhouse. Would that be worth it? In most cases probably not.

But trading for high-leverage LHRP AJ Puk would have been a great addition to fill a need. He wouldn't break the bank. When I first recommended the trade we could have easily passed off Gonzales as a top-100 prospect, to be used in as basically an even swap for a MIA's prospect starving farm. Gonzales is a poor defensive, free-swinging, contact hitter that some think has some power potential. To gain full value, Gonzales should have been flipped in the offseason. 

IMO Margot could have been sold w/o much disruption to the clubhouse, which could easily be regained by extra Martin playing time & addition of Keirsey to the roster. Most teams were only looking for a small cheap upgrade in the OF, there was a market for Margot. We wouldn't get anything for Margot except salary relief & a valuable roster spot.

We didn't give up anything for (RP) Richards, except a roster spot. He's not bad against LHHs but most of the hitters he will face will be RHHs no matter how you slice it. On the Twins website, Richards is hardly mentioned much less the savior of the BP. So there is hope that he won't be used as such.

I said prior that I'd rather this FO do nothing than do something stupid. Appears they did that. I agree that there were no reasonable SPs available that could impact the Twins. Back of the rotation depth could be added much more reasonably via the waiver wire, FA, independent & international leagues; and better yet internally. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

This FO isn't bad at selling but to be buyers for a competitive team they really suck. 

Fair.

Harsh, but fair.

It seems two different skills.  Selling seems easy, just pick the best offer and trust your scouting.  Buying in your industry's equivalent of a wall street scrum is another ballgame.  Their caution is rewarded with scorn and a couple GMs who are geared towards that environment always do something.  Deadline deals are almost losers by definition and they have reason to be gun shy.

[Otaknam]

The only reason to make any trade for a package that included one or more of their top prospects, like Walker, Rodriquez, Mathews, or Lee is if the team had a realistic chance to win the World Series this year. Without a clear number one or two starter that seems unrealistic. I’m happy they didn’t give up top prospects, especially the potential five tool impact players Walker and Rodriquez, to maybe win one playoff series. 

[Otaknam]

I suppose we should all be happy that the FO didn’t again get fleeced by trading good prospects for broken down or injured starters, as has been their history. See Paddock, DiSclafani and Mahle as examples. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Fair.

Harsh, but fair.

It seems two different skills.  Selling seems easy, just pick the best offer and trust your scouting.  Buying in your industry's equivalent of a wall street scrum is another ballgame.  Their caution is rewarded with scorn and a couple GMs who are geared towards that environment always do something.  Deadline deals are almost losers by definition and they have reason to be gun shy.

I was watching MLB Network during deadline day and they were talking about the different strategies each head baseball guy takes. Gave a stat that something like 3% of all prospects traded since 2013 have become "impact players." I don't know what they were considering "impact," but it explains why guys like Preller just go nuts sometimes and take big swings.

If you're just taking a cold, hard, mathematical look at things your best odds are to trade prospects for above average current players because so few prospects actually reach the point where they become above average.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Someone is shoveling hoo-hah.

There's zero reason either Detroit or Chicago wouldn't trade a rental to the Twins. Detroit doesn't even play the Twins until 2025.

Both teams would be stupid to take a lesser return just to avoid trading in-division. Hell, they would likely welcome taking prospects out of the Twins system. 

I don't buy that story.

???

The premise seemed to be that they were willing to entertain trading within the Division (our opponents) but that “the ask” was ridiculously high. Surprising, no!

Why trade to make a foe better in short term unless you get back something that not only helps your club but also stings for the Twins?

I didn’t get anywhere that they absolutely would not trade in the Division.

[USAFChief]

27 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I was watching MLB Network ...Gave a stat that something like 3% of all prospects traded since 2013 have become "impact players." 

I call shenanigans.

 

Seems too high...

 

[USAFChief]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Baseball is full of lore like that. 

July 29th, DeJong went from the White Sox to the Royals in a deal... Frankie Montas went from Cincinnati to Milwaukee with Weimer to Cincy. 

On July 27th... Jesse Winker went to the Mets from the Nats... Danny Jansen was traded from the Jays to the Red Sox. 

On July 26th... the Rays traded Eflin to the Orioles.

Michael A. Taylor played for the Twins just last season. Sawyer Gibson Long is on the 40 man roster of the Detroit Tigers. 

We put people in the broadcast booth who perpetuate such lore. 

Rays made a big deal today... Randy Arozarena was traded to the Mariners for a couple of prospects

He would have looked good in pinstripes. 

That wasn't going to happen. I'm sure the Rays had no interest in trading with a division rival so off to the Mariners he goes. Bye Bye Randy Arozarena... no longer a member of the American League East. 

There's a fly ball... left field... It's going to be an easy catch for ALEX VERDUGO. 

Randy Arozarena to the Yankees would just haunt the Rays over and over again. The Rays probably didn't even pick up the phone if Cashman was calling. 

Two outs now for the Phillies... JT REALMUTO coming to the plate to try and get something started.  

 

 

Multiple counter examples?? Logic??? 

 

Pfffft

 

 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

???

The premise seemed to be that they were willing to entertain trading within the Division (our opponents) but that “the ask” was ridiculously high. Surprising, no!

Why trade to make a foe better in short term unless you get back something that not only helps your club but also stings for the Twins?

I didn’t get anywhere that they absolutely would not trade in the Division.

Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a rental to a team you don't play again this season (Detroit)? Why take a lesser package just to avoid trading a guy with 1 more year on their deal to a division rival when you're rebuilding next year anyways (Chicago)?

Focusing on other teams when you're rebuilding is a terrible strategy. Who cares where your guys go, especially when they're rentals or on short deals? The focus should be on getting the best possible package to help your team get back to being competitive. If the Sox (or Tigers) did in fact take lesser packages just to keep Fedde or Flaherty out of the division they are going to continue to bring up the rear in the central. "The ask" should always be to top whatever your best offer from another team is. The Twins giving prospects to a division rival should've been far more of a concern than Detroit or Chicago giving the Twins Flaherty or Fedde. And it shouldn't have been much of a concern at all. Build your best team. Worrying about who you trade with does nothing but hurt your ability to build your best team.

[Panthers FTW]

13 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I call shenanigans.

 

Seems too high...

 

We have added Escobar, Duran, and Ryan just off the top of my head.  We have also traded away Steer and Cano just in the last couple years.  that's 5 players... out of 100 prospects I'm sure I can find some more.  Your comment seems a bit off base