The Manuel Margot Acquisition Has Been a Disaster

[Matthew Taylor]

In an offseason full of disappointing additions amid artificial financial constraints, none has gone worse for Minnesota than the trade for Manuel Margot. What went wrong with that move, and when might the Twins consider replacing him?

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

One of the Twins’ greatest needs this offseason was a replacement for Michael A. Taylor--a right-handed outfielder who could crush left-handed pitching and fill in at center field for the oft-injured Byron Buxton. While the front office tried to simply bring back Taylor, they were unable to come to terms. They opted to trade for outfielder Manuel Margot.

Even at the time of the trade, the Margot acquisition wasn’t super inspiring. He was a career 91 OPS+ hitter and was coming off a 2023 season in which his OPS was a mere .686. The signing was justified, though, based on the fact that Margot could indeed fill the role that the Twins needed. He was a career .760 OPS hitter against lefties, could run the bases well, and (unlike other free-agent options, like Tommy Pham), was an above-average defender who could fill in at center field whenever needed.

A month and a half into the season, the pickup has been a bad one by just about any metric. On the season, Margot has a lowly 46 OPS+, with just two extra-base hits and an on-base percentage of .258. The 29-year-old has a career-low xSLG of .286 and the second-lowest average exit velocity of his career, at 85.7 MPH. Both numbers are near the bottom in all of baseball.

But, hey, Margot wasn’t brought in to be a Silver Slugger winner. He was brought in to crush lefties, run the bases, and play solid defense all over the outfield. He’s at least doing those things, right?

Not quite. Against southpaws, Margot is hitting slightly better than against righthanders, but it's still a .685 OPS. 

Margot hasn’t provided any value on the bases, either. He has just one stolen base on the season, after averaging 12 stolen bases per season over the past seven years. Even more concerning is his sharp decrease in sprint speed. After posting a season in the 75th percentile in sprint speed in 2023, Margot has clocked an average sprint speed in just the 50th percentile so far in 2024.

The most frustrating part of the Margot experience in 2024, though, has been his usage and performance in the field. Although the Twins have needed a center-field glove this season with a hobbled Byron Buxton, Margot didn't get his first start in center until May 6. Based on their actions, the Twins have shown that Margot is (at best) fourth in line for center-field action, behind Buxton, Austin Martin and Willi Castro, despite his ability to play center field being a key reason why they decided to prioritize him over someone like Adam Duvall, who has an .868 OPS against lefties this season.

When he is in the field in a corner outfield spot, Margot’s defense there has been less than stellar. The Dominican native has posted -2 Outs Above Average, with poor range and a propensity for making some generally horrible plays, like the one against Boston on Sunday.

The Twins are in a tough spot when it comes to Margot’s place on the roster, however, as most of the promising bats in the organization are left-handed bats, whereas the Twins really need a presence on the right side of the plate. As poor as Margot has looked at all three facets of the game, though, the Twins should not be handcuffing themselves by keeping him on the roster just because he stands in the right batter's box.

Some potential replacements for Margot on the roster, should the Twins decide to go that direction, could be:

• Tony Kemp, whom the Twins brought in on a minor-league deal and who can play infield or corner outfield 
• Matt Wallner, who has shown some signs of progress at Triple-A since getting sent down 
• DaShawn Kiersey Jr., a promising prospect with the Saints who hits left-handed but has an .882 OPS so far on the season.

The Margot move has gone just about as badly as possible for the Twins. Whether they decide to wait until Royce Lewis comes back or to make a move sooner, the Twins need to start thinking about what it could look like to move on from this misstep.

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[Mike Sixel]

The sooner he's off the roster, the sooner he can't take at bats from someone. I am truly amazed it's this bad. I had low expectations, but not like this. Truly stunned.

[D.C Twins]

There Mar-got-to have been a better option... even internally. 

But now Rocco and the FO will stick with him waaaaaay to long... because that is what they do.

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

There Mar-got-to have been a better option... even internally. 

But now Rocco and the FO will stick with him waaaaaay to long... because that is what they do.

It is what they do and it already has been way way to long.

[Sutter50]

2 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

It is what they do and it already has been way way to long.

 

 

[Sutter50]

He won't go anywhere until Buxton is back at the earliest.  Could hang around until Lewis arrives.  Not happy about it , but that's the way it is

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Margot has been awful but at least the trade as a whole has been a plus so far.

I've been calling for Keirsey for a while now, particularly if Buxton needs a longer IL stint he's just a no brainer to call up.

Lose Margot, demote Kirilloff so he can work out some kinks in St Paul, I don't really care. 

[SteveLV]

I am wondering whether they will DFA him when Lewis comes back.

He has not performed well, to be sure.  Hope he figures things out---soon.

And CCHOF is right;  Kearsey has been killing it a AAA in all 3 areas Margot has deficient in.

[RpR]

3 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

The most frustrating part is that he cannot even do what the Twins brought him in for which is to play CF.  As always, they will probably keep him way too long.  This year's Joey Gallo?

Gallo hit 21 home runs and was a good fielder,  so no, not even close.

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Margot has been awful but at least the trade as a whole has been a plus so far.

I've been calling for Keirsey for a while now, particularly if Buxton needs a longer IL stint he's just a no brainer to call up.

Lose Margot, demote Kirilloff so he can work out some kinks in St Paul, I don't really care. 

I'm not anti Keirsey. He is at least a major step ahead of anyone else besides Buxton in CF.  Not sure how the bat will play. But it can't be worse than Margot. I just remember the clamor for Stevenson last year. Solid defense, good speed, No pop whatsoever. And he posted some big AAA numbers. Give him a shot

[Matthew Trueblood]

I think the key thing is, they clearly don't have a good alternative to Margot in house at the moment. (Keirsey truthers, I see you. I just think you're wrong.) So the question is, do they have sufficient surplus somewhere to make a need-for-need trade with someone who might have a surplus of righty outfield bats? Where would they trade from to upgrade that role on the roster? Maybe they could get someone interested in a particular high-minors arm?

[nicksaviking]

"Some potential replacements for Margot on the roster, should the Twins decide to go that direction, could be:

• Tony Kemp, whom the Twins brought in on a minor-league deal and who can play infield or corner outfield 
• Matt Wallner, who has shown some signs of progress at Triple-A since getting sent down 
• DaShawn Kiersey Jr., a promising prospect with the Saints who hits left-handed but has an .882 OPS so far on the season."

Or, and this might sound crazy, they could maybe lighten up on the strict adherence that all left handed hitters under 30-years-old never hit against a left handed pitcher.

But I'm also all for replacing Margot for Kiersey or Prato.

[1985Fan]

Kiersey hit two home runs yesterday. He had a good year last year, but Stevenson was ahead of him because of MLB experience. At some point promotion has to be based on performance not prospect status. Sends a bad message when players doing well are blocked based on opinions or perceptions. You want to reward good performance to give the players an incentive. Can’t do worse than Margot….

[Muppet]

It has not been Margot's year yet. But he is on the team, and until he isn't we can hope that he turns it around. Many others on the team have completely turned it around, so we know it is possible. Over the past 10 games Farmer has a slash line of .412 .500 . 647 1.147 after accumulating a slash line up to that point of .064 .200 .085 .285. Over the past 10 games Carlos Santana, while still no superstar, is hitting better. Kepler, who has been mostly terrible in the first half of every season is currently a rock star in right field. In the last 10 games Vazquez is hitting almost 300 and is a great defensive catcher and game caller. 

Yes Margot is the lone player who hasn't turned it around lately. On the plus side, as a departure from last year when they trotted out Gallo to bat first over and over and over again, they are now using Margot sparingly (not that Gallo and Margot are perfect comps or anything). Margot's even gotten a couple odd RBIs lately. 

Things right now that are more important and interesting than how bad Margot sucks:

1. Kyle Farmer is tearing it up after having an absolutely terrible start
2. SWR seems to be a much better MLB pitcher than an MiLB pitcher and is currently one of the most important rotation pieces that is performing much better than those previously occupying the hole he is plugging (i.e. Varland and DeSclafani). The rotation depth chart essentially ended BEFORE SWR and he is more than holding it all up. 
3. Trevor Larnach and Jose Miranda, both of whom I had written off as ever being viable Twins players are playing like All Stars. 
4. When Buxton went down, instead of clutching our collective pearls in despair, we all just shrugged it off as we all knew that Austin Martin could just come up and fill in. 
5. While Austin Martin is filling in for Buxton, we can use Margot as a defensive replacement in late innings to slightly improve the outfield defense. So Margot isn't completely useless (though obviously still not optimal). 

Margot will be off the team when his time comes. Until then, I don't mind him being the only mostly worthless position player. 

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

(Keirsey truthers, I see you. I just think you're wrong.)

Free Anthony Slama DaShawn Keirsey Jr.!

[CRF]

I'll be absolutely shocked if he isn't here all season. It's just not this FO's style to get rid of mistakes like this, during the season. 

[RpR]

1 minute ago, CRF said:

I'll be absolutely shocked if he isn't here all season. It's just not this FO's style to get rid of mistakes like this, during the season. 

If his fielding skills do not improve, his days in the sun may be short.

[Beast]

It was an awful trade from day 1, regardless of his struggles.  They gave up a potential elite defender at SS, with some offensive upside (5 HR, 6 2B, 17 BB/22K at high A).

Who trades that for a freaking 4th OF that are dime a dozen?

Pillar could’ve been had on a minor league deal (and can actually play defense).  Grichuk mashes lefties (.995 OPS last year) and could’ve been had for $3.5 million.  Renfroe signed for peanuts.  Taylor signed for $4M.

Let’s say Margot did play to his historical level.  You’re looking at roughly an OBP of .320 and slugging off .375.  Combine that with a Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average of -27 last year.  How the hell did they come up with $8M of value when they could brought back Taylor for $4M?  Taylor hasn’t been great at the plate this year either, but he’s at least providing positive value with his defense.  Margot is below replacement level.  Our LF defense is awful right now because it, and we’ve seen the impact (Margot and Martin have both butchered plays at the wall very recently).

“Slashing payroll” can’t even be used as an excuse here, because the Twins are paying Margot $8M (I believe, could be wrong).

Maybe Doncon ends up being a good piece,  but I’d rather have Miller and Taylor right now.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

"Some potential replacements for Margot on the roster, should the Twins decide to go that direction, could be:

• Tony Kemp, whom the Twins brought in on a minor-league deal and who can play infield or corner outfield 
• Matt Wallner, who has shown some signs of progress at Triple-A since getting sent down 
• DaShawn Kiersey Jr., a promising prospect with the Saints who hits left-handed but has an .882 OPS so far on the season."

Or, and this might sound crazy, they could maybe lighten up on the strict adherence that all left handed hitters under 30-years-old never hit against a left handed pitcher.

But I'm also all for replacing Margot for Kiersey or Prato.

Trade for Pham..... That's what I would do. 

[jmlease1]

49 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

There Mar-got-to have been a better option... even internally. 

But now Rocco and the FO will stick with him waaaaaay to long... because that is what they do.

Frankly, it's what most teams do: stick with the veteran and hope they turn it around rather than pay them to go away, but especially teams with more limited resources. The sunk cost fallacy is a real thing in baseball for sure.

I'm as frustrated with Margot as everyone. The fact that he's not trusted to play CF and has performed so poorly in the corners on defense is frankly a shocker. He's been a zero at basically everything he should have been good at. The acquisition was defensible if underwhelming at the time, but so far it's been a total failure. It didn't hurt much early in the season because Buxton was playing almost every day, but now that he's hit the IL (which was a surprise to no one, including twins management) Margot seems utterly incapable of being a contributor.

He's substantially better against LHP, but hardly good. But it's balanced by him being unplayable against RHP right now. It's still a small sample, but there's little to suggest he's figuring anything out. Basically, the only thing he should be used for right now is as a PH against a LH reliever, and only when there's someone else available to replace him. That's pretty awful, when benches are only 4 dudes.

I hope the twins are more aggressive about replacing him on the roster than they have been with veterans in the past.

[ashbury]

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

“Slashing payroll” can’t even be used as an excuse here, because the Twins are paying Margot $8M (I believe, could be wrong).

From MLBTR: "Los Angeles is reportedly covering $6MM of Margot’s $10MM salary for the upcoming season. The Dodgers originally received $4MM from the Rays when acquiring Margot alongside Tyler Glasnow earlier this winter; Tampa Bay also remains on the hook for a $2MM buyout on a $12MM club option for 2025."

Twins are on the hook for $4M.  If they had a 26-man roster all making that salary, they'd barely have a $100M payroll.  Margot's expense to the Twins isn't an issue.

Even one dollar wasted, as it has been up to this point, that's an issue of course.  It's the roster spot, not the money.

[weneedneshek]

This article didn't even mention we had to give up a prospect for the privilege of getting him!

[Doctor Gast]

I don't understand that we had plenty of in-house options that we went for a player that LAD wanted to dump for our MiLB best fielding SS? A great player evaluator like LAD that wanted to dump Margot & could see the potential in Noah Miller, would send a lot of red flags for me & put a lot of doubt in the Twins' player evaluation.

[jmlease1]

10 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I meant it from the perspective that the team will keep him way too long not from the comparison of performance on the field other than that both negatively hurt the team from an offensive standpoint.

the one thing we all have to remember is pretty much everyone who is saying this about Margot this year...was also saying this about Kepler last season. (That includes me)

We weren't just ripping the FO  for hanging on to Gallo and letting him play when he was brutal at the plate, we wanted Kepler cut loose too. Max didn't get going until July when he made us all (including me) look stupid.

Now, both Gallo and Kepler were playing better defense last year than Margot has shown so far, and we had more significant injuries to manage as well (I recall saying that Kepler was going to get to keep his job because we didn't have anyone else and was a better bet than Gallo so what the hell. But I certainly didn't see his second half coming, and very few people on these boards did either).

but it's the FOMO with an example like Kepler that keeps teams hanging on to a Gallo or a Margot. When exactly is the right time to "know" that a guy just doesn't have it this year?

With Margot being poor on defense and showing such limited utility even if he starts performing better...I think it's safer to be more aggressive. If Buxton is back quickly, I think Margot should be feeling the heat.

[weneedneshek]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

I don't understand that we had plenty of in-house options that we went for a player that LAD wanted to dump for our MiLB best fielding SS? A great player evaluator like LAD that wanted to dump Margot & could see the potential in Noah Miller, would send a lot of red flags for me & put a lot of doubt in the Twins' player evaluation.

Agreed, Miller who has gold glove level defense at a premium position seems to be figuring out his offense as well. .775 OPS so far this year with 5 homers

[MABB1959]

41 minutes ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm not anti Keirsey. He is at least a major step ahead of anyone else besides Buxton in CF.  Not sure how the bat will play. But it can't be worse than Margot. I just remember the clamor for Stevenson last year. Solid defense, good speed, No pop whatsoever. And he posted some big AAA numbers. Give him a shot

I would love for Keirsey to get a shot.  What are they waiting for on E Rodriguez?

[jmlease1]

5 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

This article didn't even mention we had to give up a prospect for the privilege of getting him!

we also got one back. Miller's stock had probably dropped after showing minimal improvement at the plate. So far both players are doing better in their new environments, so maybe they both just needed a change. We'll see where that lands at the end of the season, but we didn't just hand over a prospect for Margot: Doncon has value too.

[AWOLNATION_11]

Is Jordan Luplow available? 

[chpettit19]

46 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

I think the key thing is, they clearly don't have a good alternative to Margot in house at the moment. (Keirsey truthers, I see you. I just think you're wrong.) So the question is, do they have sufficient surplus somewhere to make a need-for-need trade with someone who might have a surplus of righty outfield bats? Where would they trade from to upgrade that role on the roster? Maybe they could get someone interested in a particular high-minors arm?

I'd argue for getting rid of the role all together. Why do you have to have a "righty outfield bat?" It's too late at this point, but the decision to find a righty outfield bat instead of the best bat they could was where this problem started. If they weren't so dedicated to platooning as many spots as possible at all costs they never would've brought Margot in.

The core of the Margot problem isn't Margot. It's their strategy forcing them into Margot. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

In hindsight, they should have waited out MAT a bit longer - IIRC, he signed a couple of days after the Margot trade and it was for $4MM. Yes, that's about $1.5MM more and maybe that's the answer...