Tigers 4, Twins 3: Bailey Ober Good, Bullpen and Defense Let Twins Down Late

[Hans Birkeland]

Bailey Ober turned in a virtuoso performance, but the Twins bullpen faltered late and could not preserve a three-run lead, partially because of some shaky infield defense. Minnesota looked good early against Jack Flaherty, but let him find a rhythm and did not score over the final five innings.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins entered Sunday's game in a strange spot. They have pitched pretty well thus far this season, but their top players have been either injured (Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis Jhoan Durán) or mediocre (Pablo López, Byron Buxton). Just when everything was at its bleakest following an 8-2 trouncing by the Tigers in Detroit on Friday in which Correa sustained his oblique injury, the club went ahead and swept a doubleheader Saturday. You would be forgiven for thinking the outlook felt very much like 2021 and 2018, but with a victory today, the Twins would get their record to .500 and take a four-game series against (arguably) their most legitimate competitor in the division. Well, it looked good for a while.

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 6+ IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K (84 Pitches, 58 Strikes, 69%)
Home Runs: Christian Vázquez (1)
Bottom 3 WPA: Griffin Jax (-.543), Caleb Thielbar (-.200), Carlos Santana (-.081)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):


For Sunday's game, the Tigers turned to reclamation project Jack Flaherty and the Twins started Bailey Ober. Flaherty hasn't been the same since he battled arm troubles following his dominant 2019 season. Hopefully, people haven't forgotten what Flaherty did the second half of that year as a 23-year-old: 15 starts with a 0.91 ERA, as he led his Cardinals to the postseason, He's never been near that level before or after that, with injuries and a drop in velocity as well as command turning him into a mercurial fifth starter. The Orioles traded for him at the deadline last year hoping he could become 85 percent of what he was for those magical 15 starts, and the Tigers spent $13 million this past offseason hoping the same. So far, he's disappointed on all fronts.

His slider is still decent and his velocity is mid-90s, but the Twins quickly showed how important command is in this league. They made Flaherty battle during the first inning before Willi Castro struck out on a ball inside to end a two-out, two-on threat.

They got to him in the second, running a lot of deep counts, drawing walks and finally getting a bases-loaded hit off the bat of Ryan Jeffers. He then gave up a home run to Christian Vázquez, which seemed to irk the starter. His velocity jumped to the high 90s after that, and he simply out-stuffed the Twins from that point forward.

On the other side, Ober was trying to build off on impressive outing against the Dodgers last Monday in which his command was excellent and his cutter looked like a weapon. He served up a leadoff double to wunderkind Riley Greene, but settled down from there, inducing pop-ups galore. Ober, when he is going well, can settle into a rhythm where he lulls the batter to sleep, eliciting a ton of swings on pitches they just can't quite get the barrel on. For example, the bottom of the fifth inning took approximately 35 seconds for Ober to retire the side.

He had a ten-pitch at-bat with Spencer Torkelson leading off the seventh, and after the Tigers' first baseman doubled off the left-center-field wall, Ober's day was done. Brock Stewart entered and promptly walked Kerry Carpenter, which was not at all intentional, but considering Carpenter has been the Tigers' most consistent hitter for a couple of years now, it may have been a blessing in disguise. Two grounders later, Stewart had cleaned up what mess there was, preserving Ober's line.

The Twins' lineup was fairly silent outside of the exploits of their two catchers. They let Flaherty off the hook while he settled into his rhythm, and didn't get a chance at the Tigers' bullpen until the seventh. It appeared that early on, they were attacking pitches early in counts. Later, they tried to work more counts but by then Flaherty's stuff was playing up.

Caleb Thielbar made his long-awaited return to start the eighth, and it wasn't pretty. He got Twins killer Matt Vierling to pop out, but then served up a home run to the free-swinging Javier Báez; a sharp grounder that Castro misplayed for a hit; and then another base hit to put the go-ahead run at the plate. Griffin Jax entered and induced a grounder from Mark Canha that Kyle Farmer misplayed into a double, allowing the tying run to score.

In a further homage to his 2023 bad-luck struggles, Jax then allowed a bloop hit to Torkelson to score the go-ahead run.

The Good:
Ober's form is starting to resemble his mid-2023 form, where for a brief moment, he was the Twins' best starter. Jeffers looks well-suited to the two spot in the lineup. I would never have believed that a week ago. Carlos Santana took some good at-bats, walking to start the second-inning rally and lining out sharply to Greene in left.

The Bad:
Castro took some brutal at-bats today, swinging at balls and looking at strikes. Perhaps his big home run Saturday was much ado about nothing. He also made a key misplay on a sharp grounder (ruled a hit) as the Tigers staged their comeback in the eighth. Thielbar was throwing strikes and his stuff looked fine, but it was certainly not the debut he wanted.

What’s Next: Louie Varland (0-2, 9.00 ERA) faces lefty Cole Irvin (0-1, 8.10 ERA) as the Twins look to bounce back against one of the more fungible lefty starters in the AL. The Orioles were a trendy pick to contend for a World Series, but the reality is their lineup, starting rotation and particularly their bullpen, have pretty big holes. They called up number one overall prospect Jackson Holliday last week as they looked to channel some of their 2023 magic.

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart:

	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	SUN	TOT
Bowman	0	0	0	0	0	0
Funderburk	11	0	15	17	0	43
Stewart	13	0	0	19	10	42
Jax	16	0	0	11	18	45
Sands	0	0	0	28	0	28
Jackson	0	0	13	10	0	23
Okert	16	0	0	13	0	29
Thielbar	0	0	0	0	13	13

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[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Still too many strikeouts especially looking. There's no plan right now at the plate. The common denominator continues to skate by.

[Dantes929]

 Detroit announcer said the infield was a sieve.     Did he mean it was a lousy infield or the Twins infielders were lousy?.   Two hits in the 4 run inning but but sounded like two plays that could have and maybe should have been made and maybe should have been errors..   Unless that was a bad hop to Farmer I don't see how that is a hit.    Game changers.

[Matt Braun]

I know that someone has to take the loss, but, man, Griffin Jax being that person just doesn't sit right. 

Also, there's no way that should have been a hit. 

Edited April 14, 2024 by Matt Braun

[FlyingFinn]

Castro, Farmer, and Margot have been huge disappointments so far this year. At a minimum, they have to play good defense. They are all turning outs into hits (because the Detroit scorekeeper is so biased towards giving Tigers players hits on anything).

[jorgenswest]

13 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Castro, Farmer, and Margot have been huge disappointments so far this year. At a minimum, they have to play good defense. They are all turning outs into hits (because the Detroit scorekeeper is so biased towards giving Tigers players hits on anything).

Nick Gordon has a wRC+ of 120 but I was repeatedly told there was no space for him. He had better batting projections than any of the three listed above and none of the three have put up defense to make up for their hitting.

[darwin22]

Just a gut punch of a loss of which Bailey Ober absolutely deserved a W out of today.

With our pop gun offense (Margot hitting in 4-hole with Castro behind him) putting up 3 runs---going into the 8th, this is a loss totally attributed to PLAYERS NOT MAKING PLAYS that MLB players need to make.

Culprit #1:  Thielbar

Facing Baez with 1 out he hangs a 79mph pitch to one of the WORST hitters in baseball!  Baez was 3-27 in April with 10 whiffs before Thielbar FAILS to execute.  Not good.

Culprit #2:  Castro

Butchers a hard hit ball for a generously scored single after the Baez HR.

Also goes 0-4 (with 2 whiffs).

Hitting .122 on season.  With Correa out for likely a couple of more weeks coupled with Brooks Lee being unavailable---be prepared for more of the same.

Culprit #3:   Farmer

When  you're hitting .080 and being forced into regular playing time, you'd expect a veteran to, at minimum, to knock a groundball to his backhand down.  Another OUT misplayed that led to 2 runs scoring.

Culprit #4   Martin

I know a rookie----but a high school player versed in defensive fundamentals, knows that that throw HAS to go to 3B instead of airmailing it home when there was no chance to nail Greene at the plate. If Canha is at 2B, I seriously doubt he scores on Torkelson's 145 foot dork into RF.

Still p*ssed off almost 2 hours afterwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Schmoeman5]

If Farmer and Castro both "misplayed" balls hit their way. They're not really hits. Both of those plays need to be made. And Martin can't just throw the ball willy nilly. That was a bad loss. I can't fault Rocco there,  other than the guys he had out there didn't or couldn't get the job done. And the need to score more runs is obvious. Not going to win a whole lot of games scoring 3 runs. Fine outing for Baily Ober. 

[roger]

There are games they could have won.  There are games they should have won.  Today, they had the game won.  Yes, "they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory."

Although Jeffers is heating up, the only good hitter on the team is AK.  Yet he is out of the game as soon as a leftie begins stretching in the bullpen.

[mikelink45]

Quote

 Carlos Santana took some good at-bats, walking to start the second-inning rally and lining out sharply to Greene in left.

One out but he hit the ball hard and he walked.  He is hitting 125!

I admit that that is better than Wallner, Farmer, and Castro, but - no room for bragging.  On a team with Julien, Buxton, Vasquez, Miranda, Margo all batting under 200 maybe Santana looks better, but! 

Martin, Kiriloff, and Jeffers all above 200- wow.  None of them will win the batting title. 

Sorry to see Thielbar have such a bad outing and Jax too.  By the way what is Bowman doing on the team?

[h2oface]

Theilbar hang a sweeper to Baez?

Better look again. That was the very bottom of the zone inside third part of the plate - a pretty fine pitch - a hole in just about every right handed batter's swing, and especially the guys on our team, but Baez golfed it out to end his slump. Not the definition of a hanger. That was all Baez. Hell, our guys just watch that pitch and hope the ump gets it wrong and calls a ball, and would/should have been a called stirke three for 2 outs if taken! That was a good pitch that a batter protecting the plate with 2 strikes swings at and hopes for contact to fight it off and not get called out. That homer, however, was not a real problem. Still 3-1 with 5 outs to go and the bases empty.

The second team infield (wait, Polanco is gone) except fielding challenged Julian at second, the infield all didn't make plays behind Theilbar. I wouldn't have put him in there in the game just coming untested off the IL, but he was not a "culprit" in my book. First Castro booting it, then Julian forced to position himself shifted to the right, but a grounder I would want the 2nd baseman to get to, and then Farmer totally eaten up and not in front of ball but trying to grab it from his side.... what a travesty of errors that weren't called errors.

Talk all you want about the hitting. Games are situational, especially in the 8th inning. It could be 11-8 or 9-6  or 3-0. It is all on pitching and defense now. You have a 3 run lead with 6 outs to go. It is not on the offense at all at this point. (unless your defense and MLB best bullpen gives up 4 runs in the bottom of the 8th)

Great to see Ober rebound for 2 fine starts after his first fiasco, and a poor ST. We need this Ober. Margot hitting clean up give me a break........

Cheer up Twin's fans! You have 0-2/9.00 Louie Varland on the mound to start the series in Baltimore!

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, jorgenswest said:

Nick Gordon has a wRC+ of 120 but I was repeatedly told there was no space for him. He had better batting projections than any of the three listed above and none of the three have put up defense to make up for their hitting.

See, now this is the early season chicken little, small sample size, sky falling on my head content I come to Twins Daily for. So good, I happily pay extra. 

[Peter]

Sucks blowing 3-0 lead in 8th but should’ve won. 2-2 is ok but damn. 😥need to win series against Baltimore and get payback next weekend against Detroit!!!

[Linus]

More sloppy baseball. The Twins seem to make at least one or two fundamental mistakes each game. I don’t know who is responsible for this aspect of the teams performance but whoever it is needs a wake up call. They seem to come to the big league team flawed. The frustrating thing is that it doesn’t get any better. I assume it’s being addressed but maybe guys just need to sit until they get the message. 

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Just a gut punch of a loss of which Bailey Ober absolutely deserved a W out of today.

With our pop gun offense (Margot hitting in 4-hole with Castro behind him) putting up 3 runs---going into the 8th, this is a loss totally attributed to PLAYERS NOT MAKING PLAYS that MLB players need to make.

Culprit #1:  Thielbar

Facing Baez with 1 out he hangs a 79mph pitch to one of the WORST hitters in baseball!  Baez was 3-27 in April with 10 whiffs before Thielbar FAILS to execute.  Not good.

Culprit #2:  Castro

Butchers a hard hit ball for a generously scored single after the Baez HR.

Also goes 0-4 (with 2 whiffs).

Hitting .122 on season.  With Correa out for likely a couple of more weeks coupled with Brooks Lee being unavailable---be prepared for more of the same.

Culprit #3:   Farmer

When  you're hitting .080 and being forced into regular playing time, you'd expect a veteran to, at minimum, to knock a groundball to his backhand down.  Another OUT misplayed that led to 2 runs scoring.

Culprit #4   Martin

I know a rookie----but a high school player versed in defensive fundamentals, knows that that throw HAS to go to 3B instead of airmailing it home when there was no chance to nail Greene at the plate. If Canha is at 2B, I seriously doubt he scores on Torkelson's 145 foot dork into RF.

Still p*ssed off almost 2 hours afterwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well stated - can’t hit, better be able to field! Fundamentals, lack of, like on the loose throw from Martin can be a killer - simple stuff.

Thielbar scares me going forward.

Ober had a disastrous first start - since then he’s looked completely under control giving up 6 hits & one run over 11 innings in his last 2 starts. Tough no decision today.

[jorgenswest]

55 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

See, now this is the early season chicken little, small sample size, sky falling on my head content I come to Twins Daily for. So good, I happily pay extra. 

I come for strong opinions, debate and civil discourse about baseball and the Twins.

[Jocko87]

17 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I come for strong opinions, debate and civil discourse about baseball and the Twins.

Fair. If you can find a serious discussion on keeping Gordon over any of the mentioned individuals at the time I'd read it.  In the meantime, Gordon is still who we thought he was. 

[jorgenswest]

9 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Fair. If you can find a serious discussion on keeping Gordon over any of the mentioned individuals at the time I'd read it.  In the meantime, Gordon is still who we thought he was. 

There was plenty of discussion in January through his trade where I pointed out that he was projected to be the better hitter than the other utility options and had posted RAA’s of 0 at his various positions since 2022. I appreciate your opinion then that he had no path to playing time. I disagreed particularly after the Polanco trade when it became obvious that they had a need against right handed pitching.

As for the “we” I am not sure that there is one opinion on who we thought he was. I see an inexpensive player that can play several positions with four years of control and a projected OPS against right handed pitching of .726. I would not have tendered Farmer and planned on rostering Gordon.

 

[DocBauer]

Absolute gut punch! Glad I didn't get to watch this one or I might have come unglued! I thought we had this one wrapped up after the 7th.

Sounds like some defensive miscues that just shouldn't have happened. You will lose games. But you just can't give games away like that. Feel really bad for Ober.

Can someone please explain optioning Alcala but keeping Bowman? I can only assume it's temporary to keep Bowman as an extra, rested arm and give Alcala a couple days extra rest after tossing a pair of innings the other day?? 

Otherwise, this makes no sense to me at all.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

Absolute gut punch! Glad I didn't get to watch this one or I might have come unglued! I thought we had this one wrapped up after the 7th.

Sounds like some defensive miscues that just shouldn't have happened. You will lose games. But you just can't give games away like that. Feel really bad for Ober.

Can someone please explain optioning Alcala but keeping Bowman? I can only assume it's temporary to keep Bowman as an extra, rested arm and give Alcala a couple days extra rest after tossing a pair of innings the other day?? 

Otherwise, this makes no sense to me at all.

What’s the minimum duration after getting optioned down? Assuming it was to just give him 2-3 days off…….taking a look at Bowman in right situation? ……..maybe, Thielbar will pull another muscle? ……I know just one outing but his need to be almost perfect with command really worries me at age 37.

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

I know that someone has to take the loss, but, man, Griffin Jax being that person just doesn't sit right. 

Another good example of why WPA is a total garbage stat. Farmer lets a playable ball through and Jax gets all of the blame.

[DJL44]

4 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

On a team with Julien, Buxton, Vasquez, Miranda, Margo all batting under 200 maybe Santana looks better, but! 

Martin, Kiriloff, and Jeffers all above 200- wow.  None of them will win the batting title. 

Brandon Belt is still unemployed somehow.

[terrydactyls]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I come for strong opinions, debate and civil discourse about baseball and the Twins.

Strong opinions - definitely.

Debate - more "you're wrong and I'm right!" than debate.

Civil discourse - I assume that was satire?

[akmanak]

The upper management deserves to reap what they sow. They sat back and did nothing to help this team.  

 

 

[Jocko87]

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

There was plenty of discussion in January through his trade where I pointed out that he was projected to be the better hitter than the other utility options and had posted RAA’s of 0 at his various positions since 2022. I appreciate your opinion then that he had no path to playing time. I disagreed particularly after the Polanco trade when it became obvious that they had a need against right handed pitching.

As for the “we” I am not sure that there is one opinion on who we thought he was. I see an inexpensive player that can play several positions with four years of control and a projected OPS against right handed pitching of .726. I would not have tendered Farmer and planned on rostering Gordon.

 

Taking the price out of the equation, Farmer is better for this roster in every possible way. I, and the front office are comfortable with paying about 5.5m more for Farmer in a cost cutting year.  It's not close.

The proper comp is Margot, especially since Gordon is no longer an infielder (and a marginal outfielder at that).  RH balance and Buxton insurance was needed and Nick provides neither. Being left handed without options or versatility is a tough fit. If I'm hoping for a LHH outfielder to produce ahead of Kep, Wallner, Kirilloff, Larnach, Castro I'm going to look at Erod, who kinda takes his place on the 40 man. Shoot, I'd even take a look at Kiersey before I gave Gordon run, especially if centerfield help is needed.

It doesn't give me pleasure to say this as someone who is still pulling for him, but Nick Gordon is a AAAA player at best who has no place on this roster in any form.  I wish him the best in Miami.

Acting like a 26 PA stretch can be used to present him as some sort of front office misstep is flat silly. They were delighted to even get a player back in trade. It's much more than could be reasonably expected.

[jorgenswest]

34 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Acting like a 26 PA stretch can be used to present him as some sort of front office misstep is flat silly.

It is the projections entering the season and not the 26 PAs that gave my support to Gordon prior to the season. Those 26 PAs would be nice to have right now but as I said in my first comment the projections are the support.

[Karbo]

14 hours ago, darwin22 said:

Just a gut punch of a loss of which Bailey Ober absolutely deserved a W out of today.

With our pop gun offense (Margot hitting in 4-hole with Castro behind him) putting up 3 runs---going into the 8th, this is a loss totally attributed to PLAYERS NOT MAKING PLAYS that MLB players need to make.

Culprit #1:  Thielbar

Facing Baez with 1 out he hangs a 79mph pitch to one of the WORST hitters in baseball!  Baez was 3-27 in April with 10 whiffs before Thielbar FAILS to execute.  Not good.

Culprit #2:  Castro

Butchers a hard hit ball for a generously scored single after the Baez HR.

Also goes 0-4 (with 2 whiffs).

Hitting .122 on season.  With Correa out for likely a couple of more weeks coupled with Brooks Lee being unavailable---be prepared for more of the same.

Culprit #3:   Farmer

When  you're hitting .080 and being forced into regular playing time, you'd expect a veteran to, at minimum, to knock a groundball to his backhand down.  Another OUT misplayed that led to 2 runs scoring.

Culprit #4   Martin

I know a rookie----but a high school player versed in defensive fundamentals, knows that that throw HAS to go to 3B instead of airmailing it home when there was no chance to nail Greene at the plate. If Canha is at 2B, I seriously doubt he scores on Torkelson's 145 foot dork into RF.

Still p*ssed off almost 2 hours afterwards.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't understand playing Castro at over Farmer at short. Farmer has more experience at short, and Castro has more at 3rd. I'm sure the professor has something in his charts, so I wish he would explain it.

[Whitey333]

I have no idea who Bowman is on the pitching staff.  Funny how twins use their roster.  SWR pitched great against Detroit.  Acala, his sometimes wildness not withstanding, I don't think has given up an earned run in his last 8 innings, both get sent down to St. Paul.  I understand options.  Just seems not right to reward 2 guys doing a good job by sending them to the minors.  The Twins have a long history of that.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

It is the projections entering the season and not the 26 PAs that gave my support to Gordon prior to the season. Those 26 PAs would be nice to have right now but as I said in my first comment the projections are the support.

Which projections, specifically? Nothing on Fangraphs supports what you are saying.

Besides, touting a .267 OBP is pretty silly.

[DJL44]

11 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

especially since Gordon is no longer an infielder

I like Okert, he's been good and they control him for two more seasons after this one. They didn't give Nick Gordon away for nothing.