The 3 Most Problematic Developments From Twins' First Week

[Ted Schwerzler]

While it might seem as though the sky is falling for the Minnesota Twins after their first handful of games, it’s not actually true. However, they've showed plenty of things consistent with the sluggish start from last season, and that’s more than a bit concerning.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

After a spring training in which we got to see a healthy Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis, one-third of that trio was taken away less than three full innings into the season. Lewis started the year off on a high note, with a home run against the Kansas City Royals, but one at-bat later, he was hobbling off the field. Likely out for months rather than weeks, his presence in the lineup won’t be the one to right the ship this time around.

Rocco Baldelli watched his veteran-laden group rack up a ridiculous 0-for-24 with runners in scoring position in games against the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers. A depleted bullpen has held serve, despite being without key members such as Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar. Still, the team hasn't hit their stride over the first seven games.

The Guardians have lost ace Shane Bieber for the season, but they're off to a strong start in the standings. The Royals think they’re good, and have started above .500. The Tigers might actually be good, and have rushed out to a 6-3 start. Burying themselves early isn’t the way Minnesota wants to go about this. The division isn't waiting around for them to get in gear.

Here are the three most problematic developments from the first handful of Twins tilts this season.

Max Kepler
If this seems like it is getting old, it’s because it is. Kepler started last season 2-for-22, and he owned an untenable .623 OPS 39 games into the season. The tear he went on the rest of the way might have made you think he finally abandoned a previous, broken process, but it is once again rearing its head.

When Kepler is playing poorly, it’s because he doesn’t consistently get lift on the baseball and rolls pitches over with weak contact. Putting the ball on the ground is a natural result of how his swing works, but it’s not a successful way to live at the major league level.

Yes, it’s 20 at-bats this time around, but he has one hit and a 6/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Nothing about the approach has carried over what changed last year, and there are all sorts of problems with his exit velocities and barrel rates once again.

Failed Trajectories
Minnesota isn’t a team solely built around power. That's a misnomer that still stems from the 2019 Bomba Squad. Yes, they were a solid hitting home run team in 2023, and they struck out way too much, but it isn’t a true all-or-nothing approach.

The team does, however, focus on lifting the ball to the pull field whenever the opportunity arises. There aren’t hits on ground balls in the major leagues, just like popping the ball up is never going to create anything but outs. However, the Twins are failing in that endeavor early, as they're among the bottom four teams in average launch angle across the league. Regardless of their exit velocities, the path in which they impact the baseball leaves almost no room for success.

Without getting into specific analytics for either launch angle or exit velocities, it boils down to decisions that produce outcomes destined to fail. Whether relying on advance scouting or seeking individual pitches within an at-bat, hitters aren’t making nearly enough hard contact, and when they are, the ball isn't getting enough air under it.

Death by Papercuts (Utility Overload)
No one was expecting Willi Castro to start every day, and Kyle Farmer rotating in was supposed to be less frequent and less necessary than this. Then, Lewis got injured, and everything went out the window. Rather than calling up José Miranda to play third base, the Twins turned to Austin Martin for his debut. Baldelli has a bench full of guys who are only realistically expected to perform in the most ideal conditions.

Of the bunch, Castro is the one who could have some real upside as a regular, given his performance in 2023 and the outlier situation that brought him to Minnesota following a release from Detroit. Still, though, rolling out Castro, Farmer, or Martin in constant platoon situations doesn’t integrate any of them into the lineup consistently, and they are all stretched as regulars.

Without credible options at a handful of roster spots, the front office and coaching staff are largely reduced to hoping the rolled dice land in their favor.

Threading the needle like the Twins are attempting to do this season is a difficult ask. It’s something that additional resources committed to the roster may have avoided. It’s also something that could break back their way as the season finds its rhythm, but for now, there's real risk afoot.

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[CRF]

We've got LA coming to town for three, then we go on the road to Det and Balt for the next seven. Unless we figure out what to do at the plate, we could absolutely get buried...and it'll be a long climb to get out of it. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

One digs a hole, one shovel full at a time. Is it time to quote Gardy yet? "It's a long season."

[Old Twins Cap]

I thought the three biggest concerns in this article were going to be: strike one, strike two, You're out!

[Whitey333]

Very nice article.  Well thought out.  I don't know what to make of the Twins situation.  I'm very glad that some of the other central division teams are showing life.  The Twins need the competition.  What is annoying to me is their lack of energy and telling us the games in April don't matter because it's so early.  They were flat and unproductive in spring training and continue at the start of the season.  The all or nothing approach at the plate is great when it's working but very boring when it is not which is most of the time.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I hope the Twins have a very difficult schedule the first half of the 2024 season and baseball's weakest schedule, the second half of the season, like they did in 2023. I still believe the Twins strength of schedule had a lot to do with the Twin's "amazing turn around" the second half of the 2013 season. By the way, the visiting Dodgers are ranked #1 in the latest power ranking by MLB.com for good reasons. 

[FlyingFinn]

Amazing how the Twins perform with Lewis and without Lewis. His attitude energizes everyone. 

[FlyingFinn]

Kepler - many of us aren't surprised that he is performing just like he did for 2.5 of the last three seasons. Hope he figures it out again.

[saviking]

For some reason I never had that warm, fuzzy feeling at the start of the season. Maybe the Twins players didn't either. Maybe today we can totally eclipse that feeling .. 

[Karbo]

They stunk in ST, and stink so far in real games. They have a guy sitting on their bench that has hit pretty much at every other level, yet seem to only want to use him as a runner, and then he doesn't even attempt a steal! Neither of the 2 FA's they signed aren't hitting their weight (though at least Santana plays good D). Pitching has been mostly good, but they don't have the horses to carry this team while they wait for hitters to hopefully come around. Something needs to change and soon or they will be chasing Det. the whole season. Heck, they may be battling KC and Chi. for last!

[Ted Schwerzler]

24 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Amazing how the Twins perform with Lewis and without Lewis. His attitude energizes everyone. 

This really is a thing, and it's wild that it's a thing. A guy with 70-some MLB games being responsible for invigorating established veterans is kind of sad on the part of everyone else.

[jorgenswest]

I wonder if they should have put Kepler on the IL. He has never hit well with a bad leg. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

One digs a hole, one shovel full at a time. Is it time to quote Gardy yet? "It's a long season."

Stop digging.

[mikelink45]

Miranda makes sense, Martin is a waste of space on the bench unless Rocco decides he should get out and play - I mean start and get 3 - 4 games of real effort.  No one gets hits when they get 3 ABs in how many games? 

Margot has not shined - I know it is early season, but we need some new energy and Kepler and Wallner are not giving us what we need in the OF.  

The team slash line is 191/308/300 - no one wins with that production.

The pitching staff has a 3.54 era - not bad, especially if you remove Varland and Ober from the stats.  The Twins have scored 3 runs per game - It is necessary to score more than the other team - maybe Rocco should explain that. 

We have two players hitting over 300 - Correa and Kiriloff.  We have six of the regulars hitting in the 100s (actually Kepler is 050).  On the bench Margot 250 and Farmer 231 are the leaders. 

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

They stunk in ST, and stink so far in real games. They have a guy sitting on their bench that has hit pretty much at every other level, yet seem to only want to use him as a runner, and then he doesn't even attempt a steal! Neither of the 2 FA's they signed aren't hitting their weight (though at least Santana plays good D). Pitching has been mostly good, but they don't have the horses to carry this team while they wait for hitters to hopefully come around. Something needs to change and soon or they will be chasing Det. the whole season. Heck, they may be battling KC and Chi. for last!

The "all or nothing" approach at the plate that your eyes say they have but the team says they dont needs to change.

[JD-TWINS]

So, if you take away Ober’s 1 1/3 - 8 run debacle, the other 12 guy’s ERA is 2.26 to date. That’s with 4 guys out that were supposed to contribute in a big way. (DeScla, Duran, Thielbar, & Topa)

If they were 4-3 v. 3-4 they would project to a record of 48-36 at some point in the future……everyone would be ecstatic then.

One win difference makes all the difference through 4.3% of the season.

The hitting has been pathetic - 10 guys at .200 or below. Something has to change but the season isn’t over. Just like the players, gotta keep our chins up!

[JD-TWINS]

#4) Not striking out routinely v. putting the ball in play with runners in scoring position would be a welcomed change.

I think exit path - launch angle has VERY little to do with the Team’s success. Hurry the ball hard AND putting it in play is key! I know there is data to support your point.

Kirilloff flew out to the track twice in one game and again in a second game and he tripled on a sharply hit ball on the ground past the first baseman in yet another game. He’s hitting the ball well at all different angles. Buxton had a double in the gap essentially on a ground ball with high exit velocity.

Get the barrel on the ball and good things happen. Zero contact gets zero results.

I just hope Max gets going in next week or two v. end of June, if then. Also, regardless of what he does from here through October, please don’t suggest a qualifying offer or some extension for him. I can’t take it anymore.

[KBJ1]

High launch angles, high strikeouts, lots of HR is passable. Low angles, high strikeouts, no HR spells last place.

Up the angles, hit line drives, use your speed and cut the K's in half or......

[Woof Bronzer]

Biggest concern from me is this entire organization, from its words and actions from ownership down to the players, from the minute the offseason started to free agency to spring "training" to Week 1, firmly believes they are going to cakewalk to this division title.  They might still be right.  But in my experience the baseball gods don't look too favorably upon hubris.  And the "vibes" around this team right now are not good.  

[Parfigliano]

10 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

It's still early and hopefully some of these guys (Kepler, Wallner, Margot, etc.) turn it around.  I would hope to NOT see a Gallo repeat this season.  I.e. run him out there for almost an entire season even though the results stink.  If a guy is not producing, send him down and bring up the next guy.  You gotta shake things up if they don't change at some point.

Margot should never have been signed

[Doctor Gast]

Pitchers have figured the Twins out, not only getting the SOs but also limiting HRs. From the beginning, I stated that pitchers will adjust to Kepler & that Kepler will have difficulty to readjust. I disagree with you Ted that the "all or nothing" has nothing to do with the slump. It has everything to do with it, Blaming Castro, Farmer & Martin for our problems is absurd because everyone but Kiriloff, to some extent Correa & a limited Lewis have been absolutely terrible. It's a team problem caused by a team-hitting approach that results in SOs especially in clutch situations instead of clutch hits. We lost 2 of our best clutch hitters. We have had this hitting approach taking priority for a long time. It'll take a little while to turn the ship but at least they are starting to turn.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

For some reason I never had that warm, fuzzy feeling at the start of the season. Maybe the Twins players didn't either. Maybe today we can totally eclipse that feeling .. 

I had a warm fuzzy feeling as the season started, although I was concerned about the poor spring training season for the team and particularly several starting players. The war fuzzy feeling left the moment Lewis was hurt in the first game of the 2024 season. 

[USAFChief]

3 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Margot should never have been signed

Nitpic, but the Twins didn't "sign" Margot. 

They traded the 36th pick in the 2021 draft to the Dodgers for Margot and a non-prospect. 

But I agree the Twins had no business acquiring Margot and handing him a roster spot.

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Biggest concern from me is this entire organization, from its words and actions from ownership down to the players, from the minute the offseason started to free agency to spring "training" to Week 1, firmly believes they are going to cakewalk to this division title.  

Concur the organization gave off plenty of "We're already in the postseason" vibes.

But it's the organization's actions based on that belief that's the primary concern. Or rather, lack of action. Slash payroll, Desclafani as the only starter added. Awful Polanco trade. Santana as an everyday player. Margot. 

They didn't just rest on their laurels, they actively got worse. 

[Reptevia]

Looking at his entire career-we are getting Kepler. For the majority of his career, this is who he is. The months he “figures it out” are the outliers. 

[Vanimal46]

4 hours ago, CRF said:

We've got LA coming to town for three, then we go on the road to Det and Balt for the next seven. Unless we figure out what to do at the plate, we could absolutely get buried...and it'll be a long climb to get out of it. 

Yeah you know the old saying… You can’t win a division in April, but you can lose it. 

[Rhyno006]

What are they now, 9-72 with RISP? That's an awful .125 BA that needs to improve in a hurry. 

[nicksaviking]

43 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Nitpic, but the Twins didn't "sign" Margot. 

They traded the 36th pick in the 2021 draft to the Dodgers for Margot and a non-prospect. 

But I agree the Twins had no business acquiring Margot and handing him a roster spot.

And if payroll was so precious to them this offseason, they could have done way better with his salary.

[nicksaviking]

Going forward, I'd really like this team to target consistent performers. The Jekyll and Hyde players are too often killing the lineup. I don't understand how teams continually assume a one year blip on an otherwise checkered past is indicative of what the guy will do next. 

I'd rather have a guy who predictably puts up a .750-.770 OPS than a guy who'll have an .820 OPS one year and a .700 OPS the following. 

[Larry Janisewski]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

#4) Not striking out routinely v. putting the ball in play with runners in scoring position would be a welcomed change.

I think exit path - launch angle has VERY little to do with the Team’s success. Hurry the ball hard AND putting it in play is key! I know there is data to support your point.

Kirilloff flew out to the track twice in one game and again in a second game and he tripled on a sharply hit ball on the ground past the first baseman in yet another game. He’s hitting the ball well at all different angles. Buxton had a double in the gap essentially on a ground ball with high exit velocity.

Get the barrel on the ball and good things happen. Zero contact gets zero results.

I just hope Max gets going in next week or two v. end of June, if then. Also, regardless of what he does from here through October, please don’t suggest a qualifying offer or some extension for him. I can’t take it anymore.

100% correct: put the ball in play. Spend the money on a hitting coach who will be able to work with the individuals and provide an accurate scouting report on what to expect from each pitcher. Most at bats the hitters look clueless swinging at most pitches below the zone. When the team is starting 2 players with batting averages over .235 there is a problem.